Lorenzo Cain

[Point Beer Is Best]

I had to brush up on the new draft pick compensation rules since I was initially confused why the Giants would shy away from Cain when they so desperately need OF help (while the Brewers seems to be in on him despite the OF logjam) if there were draft pick forfeitures at stake.

 

For reference if anyone else had the same question:

 

• If your team exceeded the luxury tax last season, it will forfeit its second- and fifth-highest picks and will have its international bonus money pool reduced by $1 million; an additional qualified free agent will cost the team its third- and sixth-highest picks. In other words: All first-round picks are now protected, and the highest pick a team can lose is from the compensatory sandwich round immediately following the first round.

 

• If your team received revenue sharing last year, it will forfeit its third-highest pick. An additional player will cost the team its fourth-highest pick.

[bill hAll Star]

Cain is an advanced major league bat and has been one of the best overall hitters in the game for the last 5 or so seasons.

 

No he isn't. Like hasn't even been close.

 

Maybe he's only an elite defensive CF for 2 more seasons but Mike Cameron was an effective CF until his age 36 season. Cain takes good care of himself and should last at least that long.

 

Age 27 - 23.9 UZR/150 - 17 DRS

Age 28 - 18.7 UZR/150 - 14 DRS

Age 29 - 14.5 UZR/150 - 18 DRS

Age 30 - 13.6 UZR/150 - 8 DRS

Age 31 - 2.4 UZR/150 - 5 DRS

 

Does that mean he's going to continue to decline? Not necessarily but why the hell would we take a risk that the last couple of years have been an aberration? Let some other team that actually needs an outfielder take that risk.

 

If the Brewers get Cain, it would be because they need an outfielder. You cannot assume Stearns to be so stupid that he signs Cain and does nothing in trading other players.

 

I agree that this is probably just Cain's agent trying to drive up the value.

 

What you say about his defense is very relevant, but his bat has markedly improved in that time period as well. Lorenzo Cain was not someone I was clamoring to get before the offseason started, but I do think that if somebody signs him to a 3 year deal, they'll get good value.

[Warning Track Power]

If the Brewers get Cain, it would be because they need an outfielder. You cannot assume Stearns to be so stupid that he signs Cain and does nothing in trading other players.

 

I agree that this is probably just Cain's agent trying to drive up the value.

 

What you say about his defense is very relevant, but his bat has markedly improved in that time period as well. Lorenzo Cain was not someone I was clamoring to get before the offseason started, but I do think that if somebody signs him to a 3 year deal, they'll get good value.

This is a great point. I think our collective frustration about the lack of sexy moves by the Brewers (no Chacin, Gallardo and the rumored Logan deal don't qualify) have made us question what is going on, especially when the Brewers are rumored to be going after areas of strength (OF). To me, this signals there are a ton of moving parts (different trade and free agent signing scenarios) going on behind the scenes.

 

It will take just one move (signing Cain, trading Santana, etc...) to set off a flurry of other moves.

[KeithStone53151]

If the Brewers get Cain, it would be because they need an outfielder. You cannot assume Stearns to be so stupid that he signs Cain and does nothing in trading other players.

 

I agree that this is probably just Cain's agent trying to drive up the value.

 

What you say about his defense is very relevant, but his bat has markedly improved in that time period as well. Lorenzo Cain was not someone I was clamoring to get before the offseason started, but I do think that if somebody signs him to a 3 year deal, they'll get good value.

This is a great point. I think our collective frustration about the lack of sexy moves by the Brewers (no Chacin, Gallardo and the rumored Logan deal don't qualify) have made us question what is going on, especially when the Brewers are rumored to be going after areas of strength (OF). To me, this signals there are a ton of moving parts (different trade and free agent signing scenarios) going on behind the scenes.

 

It will take just one move (signing Cain, trading Santana, etc...) to set off a flurry of other moves.

 

I tend to agree there's a very real chance of a ton of moving parts behind the scenes. I'm going to stick with the simplest explanation of...he's most likely doing due diligence and gauging the market to use as leverage in trade talks for Broxton. I would be shocked if Cain is a Brewer again.

[mlloyd10]

Another Day - Another Hell no no to Cain

[bill hAll Star]

Another Day - Another Hell no no to Cain

 

I don't get this after all of the trades you've suggested. You've suggested trading for iffy Danny Duffy, regression candidate Merrifield, or a king's ransom for Chris Archer.

 

But Lorenzo Cain, who is averaging about 4 WAR/year, rumored that he could come at a relative bargain for 3 years, and in which case Santana and/or Broxton and/or Brinson would be dealt for probably TOR pitching...is a no? Cain would only cost a comp pick and signing pool $. Not nothing, but you've been offering our top prospects up in several trade for equally risky players.

 

You wouldn't want Cain/Archer/a good reliever for $25 million/year total minus Santana/Broxton?

[KeithStone53151]

Another Day - Another Hell no no to Cain

 

I don't get this after all of the trades you've suggested. You've suggested trading for iffy Danny Duffy, regression candidate Merrifield, or a king's ransom for Chris Archer.

 

But Lorenzo Cain, who is averaging about 4 WAR/year, rumored that he could come at a relative bargain for 3 years, and in which case Santana and/or Broxton and/or Brinson would be dealt for probably TOR pitching...is a no?

 

You wouldn't want Cain/Archer/a good reliever for $25 million/year total minus Santana/Broxton?

 

I think you are generally getting too caught up in WAR and defensive value. While his avg and obp might hover in that general area for the next 4 years, the SB totals and defensive value are likely to keep trending downward as they already are. Cain would still fit well on the team if all those moving parts come together, but unless the asking price comes way down this won't work for us. We'd also be giving up our comp pick to sign him.

[bill hAll Star]

Another Day - Another Hell no no to Cain

 

I don't get this after all of the trades you've suggested. You've suggested trading for iffy Danny Duffy, regression candidate Merrifield, or a king's ransom for Chris Archer.

 

But Lorenzo Cain, who is averaging about 4 WAR/year, rumored that he could come at a relative bargain for 3 years, and in which case Santana and/or Broxton and/or Brinson would be dealt for probably TOR pitching...is a no?

 

You wouldn't want Cain/Archer/a good reliever for $25 million/year total minus Santana/Broxton?

 

I think you are generally getting too caught up in WAR and defensive value. While his avg and obp might hover in that general area for the next 4 years, the SB totals and defensive value are likely to keep trending downward as they already are. Cain would still fit well on the team if all those moving parts come together, but unless the asking price comes way down this won't work for us. We'd also be giving up our comp pick to sign him.

 

I agree, and while this is all a far-fetched scenario because it involves dealing Santana and others for pitchers, I'm just saying there is just a strange stigma around any free agent signing by most, but trading away a boatload of prospects is fine.

[MrTPlush]

Why must every time someone sees a rumor that doesn’t make sense to them they have to instantly resort to saying it is just an agent making things up?

 

This idea isn’t that hard to believe and the concept seems simple. IF they can get good value trading Santana(maybe that nice starter we all want) I could see the thought process. The biggest thing against trading Santana is the fact he is a proven bat and it would hurt to lose that on the MLB squad negating a lot of gain from whatever we get in return. So after trading from a strength we then could use a different strength(payroll) to get back what we lost from Santana(proven OF bat).

 

Good chance they don’t want to pay the price of FA starters and are looking to trade for one using an OF they can afford to replace via FA.

[KeithStone53151]

Why must every time someone sees a rumor that doesn’t make sense to them they have to instantly resort to saying it is just an agent making things up?

 

This idea isn’t that hard to believe and the concept seems simple. IF they can get good value trading Santana(maybe that nice starter we all want) I could see the thought process. The biggest thing against trading Santana is the fact he is a proven bat and it would hurt to lose that on the MLB squad negating a lot of gain from whatever we get in return. So after trading from a strength we then could use a different strength(payroll) to get back what we lost from Santana(proven OF bat).

 

Good chance they don’t want to pay the price of FA starters and are looking to trade for one using an OF they can afford to replace via FA.

 

Just this offseason, rumors of us being interested in Arrieta. Then a day later, the quote below which basically negated the Arrieta rumors. Nonsense rumors are a fairly common occurence.

 

Regarding the team’s rotation needs, Stearns says that the organization’s “market and history” under his stewardship are “a better indicator of the types of moves we’re seeking than some of the external speculation.” That seemingly hints that the organization won’t be chasing high-end free agents, though perhaps some of the top pitchers could still be considered in the right circumstances

 

I've said there's a chance multiple moves happen that would make bringing in Cain a more logical decision. I personally think it's more likely and a more simple explanation that the rumors have a shade of truth but are mostly nonsense.

[NievesNoNO]

Not sure on the probability but I think the interest only really confirms the Brewers willingness to trade some OFs.

 

Imo, interest in Cain leans more toward the possibility of trading Brinson than anybody else.

[HighHeat19]

The only way I see Cain as option is that the Brewers would have a trade or multiple trades already in place with their current OF's. Such as Brinson part of a package for a TOR, Broxton to the Giants, Santana to the Red Sox etc.

 

I do not see Santana being a part of this organization forthcoming. He was traded from Stearn's then Astros for a reason and he seems to be not wanted by Stearn's Brewers either. Stearn's values versatility and defense. Not quite Santana's strong points. Although it happens to be Cain's strong points. Hence, the reason the Brewer's interest. I also believe the Brewer's interest in Cain is real.

[wallus]

Another Day - Another Hell no no to Cain

 

Please keep the daily updates coming.

[Warning Track Power]

I do not see Santana being a part of this organization forthcoming. He was traded from Stearn's then Astros for a reason and he seems to be not wanted by Stearn's Brewers either. Stearn's values versatility and defense. Not quite Santana's strong points. Although it happens to be Cain's strong points. Hence, the reason the Brewer's interest. I also believe the Brewer's interest in Cain is real.

Good point and one that I value about Stearn's team building. I love the emphasis on defense and while the versatility can drive me crazy with Counsell putting Perez in the OF, I also love the depth that it can create. Santana, who I like as a hitter except for the Ks, profiles much more as a DH than a RF (see K. Davis).

 

It would be interesting to see if the Red Sox fail in their attempt to sign JD Martinez, if they would be willing to trade say Jay Groome for Domingo Santana.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think there's definitely something to a trade that includes Santana and returns pitching - then the Brewers could sign Cain at a reasonable price, look to deal Broxton for just about anything of value, and roll into next season with an OF of Braun, Cain, Brinson, and Phillips. The combination of Cain, Brinson, and Phillips provides premium defense in CF and RF, young player platoon/late inning defensive replacement options, and plenty of flexibility to give Braun days off. Plus, this leaves their minor league OF depth in pretty good shape, with prospects like Harrison, Stokes, Lutz, and others developing.

 

As others have stated, Cain's approach at the plate would be most welcome in this lineup - his offensive #'s will likely improve in Miller Park compared to playing 1/2 his games at KC. IF the Brewers can get him at a decent price for 3 yrs plus a 4th option year and get pitching back by dealing Santana before he starts getting expensive via arbitration, it makes alot of sense to do something like this. Cain could easily transition to a corner OF position should Brinson or even Phillips earn the everyday CF gig.

[MrTPlush]

Why must every time someone sees a rumor that doesn’t make sense to them they have to instantly resort to saying it is just an agent making things up?

 

This idea isn’t that hard to believe and the concept seems simple. IF they can get good value trading Santana(maybe that nice starter we all want) I could see the thought process. The biggest thing against trading Santana is the fact he is a proven bat and it would hurt to lose that on the MLB squad negating a lot of gain from whatever we get in return. So after trading from a strength we then could use a different strength(payroll) to get back what we lost from Santana(proven OF bat).

 

Good chance they don’t want to pay the price of FA starters and are looking to trade for one using an OF they can afford to replace via FA.

 

Just this offseason, rumors of us being interested in Arrieta. Then a day later, the quote below which basically negated the Arrieta rumors. Nonsense rumors are a fairly common occurence.

 

Regarding the team’s rotation needs, Stearns says that the organization’s “market and history” under his stewardship are “a better indicator of the types of moves we’re seeking than some of the external speculation.” That seemingly hints that the organization won’t be chasing high-end free agents, though perhaps some of the top pitchers could still be considered in the right circumstances

 

I've said there's a chance multiple moves happen that would make bringing in Cain a more logical decision. I personally think it's more likely and a more simple explanation that the rumors have a shade of truth but are mostly nonsense.

 

Stearns was referring to speculation which is a lot different than rumors. Speculation is like a prediction...where a rumor is something with some type of substance. The Arrieta stuff was largely speculation. The Cain information sounds more like a rumor.

[HighHeat19]

I think there's definitely something to a trade that includes Santana and returns pitching - then the Brewers could sign Cain at a reasonable price, look to deal Broxton for just about anything of value, and roll into next season with an OF of Braun, Cain, Brinson, and Phillips. The combination of Cain, Brinson, and Phillips provides premium defense in CF and RF, young player platoon/late inning defensive replacement options, and plenty of flexibility to give Braun days off. Plus, this leaves their minor league OF depth in pretty good shape, with prospects like Harrison, Stokes, Lutz, and others developing.

 

As others have stated, Cain's approach at the plate would be most welcome in this lineup - his offensive #'s will likely improve in Miller Park compared to playing 1/2 his games at KC. IF the Brewers can get him at a decent price for 3 yrs plus a 4th option year and get pitching back by dealing Santana before he starts getting expensive via arbitration, it makes alot of sense to do something like this. Cain could easily transition to a corner OF position should Brinson or even Phillips earn the everyday CF gig.

 

Bingo!

[wallus]

Has there been a study done that older free agent pitchers are riskier than older free agent hitters? That might have something to do with it.

[clancyphile]

For me, Cain is a hard pass.

 

Even if he comes at four years, $46 million, it also costs a pick and the bonus pool money. That opportunity cost is too much, even with the Crew drafting relatively late, thanks to an 86-win season.

 

Phillips, Brinson, Stokes, Santana, Broxton are all younger and cheaper, even if not as good in some aspects.

 

So, why give up the pick and bonus pool money for Cain? It makes no sense.

[wallus]

 

So, why give up the pick and bonus pool money for Cain? It makes no sense.

 

Because you would have traded Santana for a haul before signing him. I would imagine Cain in RF would give you very good defense.

[pacopete4]

Trade Brinson (or make him prove he can stay healthy in AAA) and Santana for as much pitching as you can acquire. Sign Cain to play CF and put the hose or an arm Phillips in right and see what happens. You have Perez and sign another OF to round out the OF.

[Lathund]

Not sure on the probability but I think the interest only really confirms the Brewers willingness to trade some OFs.

 

Imo, interest in Cain leans more toward the possibility of trading Brinson than anybody else.

 

I'd say that from what we've seen from the Stearns regime so far, Brinson is the one player they're least interested in trading. A .107 BABIP and a hamstring strain has made him expendable and someone to "sell high" on in some peoples eyes, but I think the front office take a different view. Rightly so in my opinion.

 

To me everything suggests that it's Santana and Broxton the team are looking to move. I don't think that Cain being a CF says anything about Brinson, if anything I'd think DS would be delighted to have 3 CF types (Brinson. Phillips, Cain) alongside Braun.

[MrTPlush]

If we avoid signing someone over losing a second half 2nd round pick we are a lot dumber than I thought. I’d bet on Lorenzo Cain doing more in one season than that 2nd rounder will do in his entire career for us...and I’m not even a Lorenzo Cain fan.

[wallus]

If we avoid signing someone over losing a second half 2nd round pick we are a lot dumber than I thought. I’d bet on Lorenzo Cain doing more in one season than that 2nd rounder will do in his entire career for us...and I’m not even a Lorenzo Cain fan.

 

Cain is playing for free? Nope.

[jerichoholicninja]

Why must every time someone sees a rumor that doesn’t make sense to them they have to instantly resort to saying it is just an agent making things up?

 

This idea isn’t that hard to believe and the concept seems simple. IF they can get good value trading Santana(maybe that nice starter we all want) I could see the thought process. The biggest thing against trading Santana is the fact he is a proven bat and it would hurt to lose that on the MLB squad negating a lot of gain from whatever we get in return. So after trading from a strength we then could use a different strength(payroll) to get back what we lost from Santana(proven OF bat).

 

Good chance they don’t want to pay the price of FA starters and are looking to trade for one using an OF they can afford to replace via FA.

 

Just this offseason, rumors of us being interested in Arrieta. Then a day later, the quote below which basically negated the Arrieta rumors. Nonsense rumors are a fairly common occurence.

 

Regarding the team’s rotation needs, Stearns says that the organization’s “market and history” under his stewardship are “a better indicator of the types of moves we’re seeking than some of the external speculation.” That seemingly hints that the organization won’t be chasing high-end free agents, though perhaps some of the top pitchers could still be considered in the right circumstances

 

I've said there's a chance multiple moves happen that would make bringing in Cain a more logical decision. I personally think it's more likely and a more simple explanation that the rumors have a shade of truth but are mostly nonsense.

 

Stearns was referring to speculation which is a lot different than rumors. Speculation is like a prediction...where a rumor is something with some type of substance. The Arrieta stuff was largely speculation. The Cain information sounds more like a rumor.

 

This time of year I assume that 90% of stuff that is reported is flat out made up. Either by the reporter or the source.