Lorenzo Cain

[StearnsFTW]

I'd take him on a 3/45 type deal in an instant. I'm guessing he gets the 4th year though. I'd still probably take him at 4/60. Trade 1 or 2 OFs for pitching prospects. Seems like a pretty good idea to me. Adding quality talent for nothing always does.

[pacopete4]

Why hasn't a team like the Giants, who have been rumored to want OF help, not signed him? I mean, he's a pretty good player and could help out a team like that.

[sveumrules]

Lo's 15.5 K% last year would have been easily the best among our regulars with only Sogard (299 PAs) striking out less frequently out of all batters, so he definitely fits the mold of trying to make more contact.

 

It's been pretty clear that some of the OF glut would be moved at some point this offseason it was just a matter of who & for what & when, so if this indicates the process is maybe getting closer to its end & we're about to see something(s) go down that's almost exciting.

[Lathund]

Why hasn't a team like the Giants, who have been rumored to want OF help, not signed him? I mean, he's a pretty good player and could help out a team like that.

 

I've seen it reported that they're not keen on any FA who would cost them a draft pick, which Cain would.

[trwi7]

Two year deal, flip him in the off-season or at the deadline.

 

Why would Cain sign a two year deal when this is his first and only big contract? Why would a team give up worthwhile value when they had a chance to just beat the Brewers offer?

[KeithStone53151]

Two year deal, flip him in the off-season or at the deadline.

 

Why would Cain sign a two year deal when this is his first and only big contract? Why would a team give up worthwhile value when they had a chance to just beat the Brewers offer?

 

I'm not so sure that Cain is going to get better than a 2 or 3 year deal based on how his market is developing. I still am not interested in him on a 2 year deal, OF is not a position we should be targeting even if we trade Santana and Broxton. We'd be better off rolling out both young guys and bringing in a veteran as the 4th. As much as I hate to say it, a Jon Jay type would make sense in this case.

[Warning Track Power]

I just wouldn't love a move like this. Cain doesn't significantly move the needle for me even if Santana were dealt in a package for an Archer or Stroman type. In such a scenario I would rather Brinson and Phillips begin in CF and RF with a lesser commitment OF (Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez) brought on as an insurance policy.

[homer]

Two year deal, flip him in the off-season or at the deadline.

 

Why would Cain sign a two year deal when this is his first and only big contract? Why would a team give up worthwhile value when they had a chance to just beat the Brewers offer?

 

I dunno.

[pacopete4]

Two year deal, flip him in the off-season or at the deadline.

 

Why would Cain sign a two year deal when this is his first and only big contract? Why would a team give up worthwhile value when they had a chance to just beat the Brewers offer?

 

I dunno.

 

I love this response.

[Boomer5]

The last thing the Brewers should be bringing in is a 32 year old OF.

[bill hAll Star]

Two year deal, flip him in the off-season or at the deadline.

 

Why would Cain sign a two year deal when this is his first and only big contract? Why would a team give up worthwhile value when they had a chance to just beat the Brewers offer?

 

I'm not so sure that Cain is going to get better than a 2 or 3 year deal based on how his market is developing. I still am not interested in him on a 2 year deal, OF is not a position we should be targeting even if we trade Santana and Broxton. We'd be better off rolling out both young guys and bringing in a veteran as the 4th. As much as I hate to say it, a Jon Jay type would make sense in this case.

 

Say Santana and Broxton were dealt in some sort of Archer or Salazar package.

 

You'd pass up a 3-5 WAR player on a 2 year deal while our payroll is still one of the lowest in baseball?

 

4.8, 6.5, 2.5 (injuries so only 115 games), 4.1. Those are Cain's past 4 years of WAR. He's getting older but if it's a 2 year risk, I don't think he's going to fall off a cliff.

 

I'm really only suggesting Cain coming to the Brewers in not realistic (right now) situations, but he's being severely undervalued even if he is getting a bit older.

[bill hAll Star]

Why hasn't a team like the Giants, who have been rumored to want OF help, not signed him? I mean, he's a pretty good player and could help out a team like that.

 

If he gets over $50 million, the Giants have stated that they don't want to sign a free agent. Giving up a comp pick is a big deal when they're drafting at the top of the round.

 

I don't think they said they wouldn't do it, but they suggested as to being very cautious when signing free agents because of this.

[Eye Black]

Why hasn't a team like the Giants, who have been rumored to want OF help, not signed him? I mean, he's a pretty good player and could help out a team like that.

 

If he gets over $50 million, the Giants have stated that they don't want to sign a free agent. Giving up a comp pick is a big deal when they're drafting at the top of the round.

 

I don't think they said they wouldn't do it, but they suggested as to being very cautious when signing free agents because of this.

Another thing preventing the Giants from signing significant free agents is that they have been over the luxury tax threshold the last two years and need to stay under it this season to reset the penalties and avoid more significant restrictions (I believe they would be assessed a 40% tax on each dollar spent over the $197 million luxury tax cap this season).

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Steamer has Cain projected as worth 3.3 wins.

 

That would probably make him the most valuable, PROJECTED player on the 2018 roster by WAR. I'd jump on a 3/45 deal. He'd only need to be worth what? 5.5 wins in three seasons to justify the worth? 4/60 is probably fair too. He's a really good player, and if the worst case scenario is having to lug around 15 million for one year in 2021, sign me up. I'd take that risk.

 

Granted, it's probably got to come with moving at least Broxton and probably Santana for pitching.

 

So, I guess, I'm a yes if. IF the price is right (capped out at something like 4/60) and IF it comes with other moves.

[MNBrew]

Cain is the type of hitter that the Brewers don't have enough of. I don't want more HR-or-nothing/high-K hitters. We have way too many of those.

 

32 is not a ridiculous age and a 2-3 year deal wouldn't be absurd in my opinion if it's for a reasonable-enough price.

 

As others have said, I'd assume that such a signing would also mean getting a substantial-enough return for at least one current Brewers OF.

 

I'd much rather have Cain than Gomez, whose skills seem to be slipping and who is quite the human windmill at the plate at times (not to mention the fact that he's also rightly drawn the ire of many here over the years for his Villar-like boneheaded tendencies on the bases and also for his at-time-fundamentally-poor defensive play in the OF (throwing behind runners, etc.)). Gomez is a good dude overall and the Brewers are the team with which he's thrived by far the most. I just don't see him as very ideal match for the current makeup of the roster.

[TooLiveBrew]

Cain to me is one to stay far away from. I like him as a player, but he's the type where you're almost certainly going to be paying him based on his best seasons, while he declines while you have him.

 

Especially stay away if he'll be getting 4 years & about $15M per. No reason to commit so much of the payroll room we have for a player who relies a lot on speed & athleticism, to play out his age 32-35 seasons. This feels like a move the 2015 Tigers would've made.

 

With Cain, I think of guys like Weeks & Gomez -- toolsy/athletic players that took a longer time to blossom... then burn brightly for a few seasons but fall off quickly.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Cain is the type of hitter that the Brewers don't have enough of. I don't want more HR-or-nothing/high-K hitters. We have way too many of those.

 

32 is not a ridiculous age and a 2-3 year deal wouldn't be absurd in my opinion if it's for a reasonable-enough price.

 

As others have said, I'd assume that such a signing would also mean getting a substantial-enough return for at least one current Brewers OF.

 

I'd much rather have Cain than Gomez, whose skills seem to be slipping and who is quite the human windmill at the plate at times (not to mention the fact that he's also rightly drawn the ire of many here over the years for his Villar-like boneheaded tendencies on the bases and also for his at-time-fundamentally-poor defensive play in the OF (throwing behind runners, etc.)). Gomez is a good dude overall and the Brewers are the team with which he's thrived by far the most. I just don't see him as very ideal match for the current makeup of the roster.

 

This. We need guys that actually put the ball in play. Only has had 1 season of more than 100 strikeouts. Plus, solid other numbers. Brewers trip round two for Cain!

[MNBrew]

I don't want too many guys w/ lovely OPS's whose OPS is weighted too heavily on power. Power is often streaky and too prone to cold streaks. Good hitters that put the ball in play, guys with good OBP, those are the guys who can help the team at the plate more consistently even when the HRs go MIA.

[adambr2]

Some of you IMO are really underrating Cain. Frankly he's underrated in general.

 

There's a lot we can go back and forth on, but Baseball Reference had him over 5 WAR in 3 out the last 4 seasons and over 7 in one. That's not just a good player, that's a borderline star.

 

Obviously the big question is how long he can sustain that kind of value at age 32. If we could pull off Cain for a 3 year deal and end up getting a top of the rotation starter for our surplus outfielders that definitely moves the needle for us and I'd go that direction in a heartbeat.

[mlloyd10]

Hell no to Cain

[RockCoCougars]

If they "have" to burn money on a free agent, I'd prefer it'd be something like this as opposed to one of the FA starters.

[Jaylyn]

Cain to me is one to stay far away from. I like him as a player, but he's the type where you're almost certainly going to be paying him based on his best seasons, while he declines

With Cain, I think of guys like Weeks & Gomez -- toolsy/athletic players that took a longer time to blossom... then burn brightly for a few seasons but fall off quickly.

 

I get the same vibe when it comes to Brinson, hope not though.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cain to me is one to stay far away from. I like him as a player, but he's the type where you're almost certainly going to be paying him based on his best seasons, while he declines while you have him.

 

Especially stay away if he'll be getting 4 years & about $15M per. No reason to commit so much of the payroll room we have for a player who relies a lot on speed & athleticism, to play out his age 32-35 seasons. This feels like a move the 2015 Tigers would've made.

 

With Cain, I think of guys like Weeks & Gomez -- toolsy/athletic players that took a longer time to blossom... then burn brightly for a few seasons but fall off quickly.

 

Weeks and Gomez have had contact issues their entire careers. Cain is toolsy but he's also a professional hitter. He's a career .290 hitter who's never fanned more than 108 times in a season. He's a pure hitter who's also athletic. If his athleticism fades some, he'll still hit. There's a huge difference. Weeks is a .246 career hitter that struck out a lot and never hit above .279 in any season. Gomez has had a better career than Weeks, but he too is more all or nothing type bat who's best season BA was .284. In fact, he'd not be a bad option either coming off a nice season where he posted an .802 OPS.

 

Cain's played his entire career in a pitchers park too. He'd be an excellent sign. He won't turn 32 until April and even if he signs for 4 years (3 with an option is more likely), it would be a far better sign than say Aramis Ramirez was when he was signed for 4 years and $46 million at age 34.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cain to me is one to stay far away from. I like him as a player, but he's the type where you're almost certainly going to be paying him based on his best seasons, while he declines

With Cain, I think of guys like Weeks & Gomez -- toolsy/athletic players that took a longer time to blossom... then burn brightly for a few seasons but fall off quickly.

 

I get the same vibe when it comes to Brinson, hope not though.

 

Do you guys ever watch the Royals play? Cain is an advanced major league bat and has been one of the best overall hitters in the game for the last 5 or so seasons. He's so far from an all or nothing hitter it's ridiculous. He's closer as a hitter to a RH version of Neil Walker than he is to Weeks or Gomez.

BR calculates his career WAR at 27.8, and his 2017 WAR at 5.3. Weeks career WAR total is 11.3. Gomez is at 25.6 but he's been around longer than Cain. If Brinson accumulates 27.8 WAR for his career, then he'll be one heck of a player.

 

Maybe he's only an elite defensive CF for 2 more seasons but Mike Cameron was an effective CF until his age 36 season. Cain takes good care of himself and should last at least that long.

[trwi7]

Cain is an advanced major league bat and has been one of the best overall hitters in the game for the last 5 or so seasons.

 

No he isn't. Like hasn't even been close.

 

Maybe he's only an elite defensive CF for 2 more seasons but Mike Cameron was an effective CF until his age 36 season. Cain takes good care of himself and should last at least that long.

 

Age 27 - 23.9 UZR/150 - 17 DRS

Age 28 - 18.7 UZR/150 - 14 DRS

Age 29 - 14.5 UZR/150 - 18 DRS

Age 30 - 13.6 UZR/150 - 8 DRS

Age 31 - 2.4 UZR/150 - 5 DRS

 

Does that mean he's going to continue to decline? Not necessarily but why the hell would we take a risk that the last couple of years have been an aberration? Let some other team that actually needs an outfielder take that risk.