Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[tmwiese55]

That could well be true and I might have a bit more confidence in Woodruff than most. But those 2-3 extra Ws you get with Cobb instead of Gallardo/Wilkerson/Guerra could easily be the difference between playoffs or not. Or division or WC. That's the decision point. If they were just team hoping to be .500 and not really make the playoffs then it doesn't make sense, but getting those extra couple wins could be huge in the area they're trying to compete this year.

[chuckiehacks]

I have no doubt Wilkerson could put up 80% of the WAR Cobb does in a season and cost 5% of Cobb

 

Really, you're that sure about a 28-year old who has ~100 innings above AA?

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

HH says on Twitter that if Cobb isn’t a Brewer he’ll delete the twitter account. Take that for whatever it’s worth to you

[bill hAll Star]

(I have no doubt Wilkerson could put up 80% of the WAR Cobb does in a season and cost 5% of Cobb) and just spends money for the sake of spending money.

 

Somebody above me already addressed the idea that Wilkerson has proven nothing in the majors and his stuff may not play there, but what are you planning to do with the savings? Has Mark's ownership group invited you on to their new yachts that they'd be buying with it?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Better than Davies, Chacin, Woodruff and Gallardo/Wilkerson/Suter/Guerra/Lopez? That's a big yes.

 

Take Davies out and you have a yes. Davies has out-produced Cobb the last 2 years (compared to the last 2+ years of Cobb).

 

Cobb would be the 4th best pitcher on the Brewers. He's older than our top 3 and likely not on any upward production curve. While he guarantees that only 1 of Woodruff/Gallardo/Wilkerson/Suter/Guerra/Lopez makes the starting 5 until Nelson returns, he is not elite enough to block a young guy such as Wilkerson or Burnes. He's a decent pitcher available on the open market for money only. I hope the Brewers spend enough to get him as long as he's under 4/60, but going higher really doesn't do that much to improve the Brewers (I have no doubt Wilkerson could put up 80% of the WAR Cobb does in a season and cost 5% of Cobb) and just spends money for the sake of spending money.

 

Cobb is going into his 2nd season post-Tommy John surgery, which is when you typically see an uptick in velocity and performance for pitchers. His numbers pre-surgery are near ace-level. I believe he's got quite a bit of upside. Substantially more than Davies, who I also like as well.

 

So you are saying Cobb would be #4 behind Anderson, Davies and Nelson? Hell, if the three of those guys are putting up the numbers they are capable of, Cobb would be the best #4 in the NL! Sign me up!

 

Saying you trust Wilkerson to put up similar numbers to what Cobb could give you is a stretch, though. I think Cobb puts up an ERA in the high 2's to low 3's pitching in the NL. That'll get it done.

[SeaBass]

HH says on Twitter that if Cobb isn’t a Brewer he’ll delete the twitter account. Take that for whatever it’s worth to you

 

It's not that I strictly doubt him or his source, I'm actually rooting for him to be right, but he deleted his previous account in the last week already, started this one a day later and got 1000 followers in the first 24 hrs, I don't think he's that worried about deleting his account again.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

HH says on Twitter that if Cobb isn’t a Brewer he’ll delete the twitter account. Take that for whatever it’s worth to you

 

It's not that I strictly doubt him or his source, I'm actually rooting for him to be right, but he deleted his previous account in the last week already, started this one a day later and got 1000 followers in the first 24 hrs, I don't think he's that worried about deleting his account again.

 

He never had a Twitter account before Monday. He did, however, have Twitter troll imitators. Probably alternate Twitter handles from the Wild West Brewer Twitterverse.

 

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=36399

[Madhawk23]

The good news regarding HH19 going all-in now on the Cobb stuff is that at least we should know in the next couple of days if this guy is a complete fraud or if he actually might have a legit source? I have my serious doubts now (especially the way he's handling himself on Twitter), but I do hope he's right with this Cobb prediction.

 

Of course, he could just be making an educated guess on Cobb (while not having any source with the Brewers), but I'd definitely have a bump in faith in him if Cobb to the Brewers plays out here in the next 24-48 hours.

[McRibMcLove]

I have no doubt Wilkerson could put up 80% of the WAR Cobb does in a season and cost 5% of Cobb

 

Really, you're that sure about a 28-year old who has ~100 innings above AA?

 

Should be Woodruff as I just copied from the previous post. Yes I do. Woodruff is 25. He has the stuff, he performed over that level last year if you scale his innings to ~160 even when he had a bad end of the year (likely tired due to his longest season). I am not against signing Cobb, I have advocated signing him in multiple posts as long as we don't overpay for the production he brings. I think he is excellent insurance against delayed Nelson recovery/performance and to keep us close going into the trade deadline where I hope we add that TOR starter through a trade. But at some point in the near future we will have younger alternatives that could out-produce him at a fraction of the cost.

[SeaBass]

HH says on Twitter that if Cobb isn’t a Brewer he’ll delete the twitter account. Take that for whatever it’s worth to you

 

It's not that I strictly doubt him or his source, I'm actually rooting for him to be right, but he deleted his previous account in the last week already, started this one a day later and got 1000 followers in the first 24 hrs, I don't think he's that worried about deleting his account again.

 

He never had a Twitter account before Monday. He did, however, have Twitter troll imitators. Probably alternate Twitter handles from the Wild West Brewer Twitterverse.

 

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=36399

 

I think he did, I can't prove it because it's deleted but he had the same tweet about proof on bf.net Off Topic forum. It wasn't there long. I could be wrong but it seemed more convincing than the more obvious fake accounts I saw.

 

Either way, my point remains he knows he can delete it and pretty much regain any followers nearly immediately.

[tmwiese55]

The good news regarding HH19 going all-in now on the Cobb stuff is that at least we should know in the next couple of days if this guy is a complete fraud or if he actually might have a legit source? I have my serious doubts now (especially the way he's handling himself on Twitter), but I do hope he's right with this Cobb prediction.

 

Of course, he could just be making an educated guess on Cobb (while not having any source with the Brewers), but I'd definitely have a bump in faith in him if Cobb to the Brewers plays out here in the next 24-48 hours.

 

Thing is having a legit source doesn't mean the source is always correct on everything since the source is only hearing the Brewers side of things and doesn't have access to the player's views or other teams views. The source itself is working with limited info, passing on what he can, then someone like an HH passes on what he can. There's so many variables in there, that's why it's so dumb to try and discredit someone and 'prove' they're a fraud. Just take it for what it is.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have no doubt Wilkerson could put up 80% of the WAR Cobb does in a season and cost 5% of Cobb

 

Really, you're that sure about a 28-year old who has ~100 innings above AA?

 

Should be Woodruff as I just copied from the previous post. Yes I do. Woodruff is 25. He has the stuff, he performed over that level last year if you scale his innings to ~160 even when he had a bad end of the year (likely tired due to his longest season). I am not against signing Cobb, I have advocated signing him in multiple posts as long as we don't overpay for the production he brings. I think he is excellent insurance against delayed Nelson recovery/performance and to keep us close going into the trade deadline where I hope we add that TOR starter through a trade. But at some point in the near future we will have younger alternatives that could out-produce him at a fraction of the cost.

 

Cobb wouldn't be replacing Woodruff in the rotation. He'd be replacing the 5-headed monster of Suter/Guerra/Wilkerson/Gallardo/Lopez, knocking the other guys down a spot. I think Woodruff is the #5 with a Cobb signing. When Nelson comes back, if everyone is still healthy, you kick whoever is performing poorest to the pen. Those type of situations typically have a way of working themselves out.

[McRibMcLove]

Cobb is going into his 2nd season post-Tommy John surgery, which is when you typically see an uptick in velocity and performance for pitchers. His numbers pre-surgery are near ace-level.

 

His best year was age 27 when he put up a nWAR of 2.8 (not elite). Davies has done that the last 2 years.

 

Cobb was 29 last year and everything in his performance curve matches age related decline. I don't see him having a huge year this year. He will benefit from the move to the NL and he may put up a 3 WAR, but there is nothing that clearly says he's due to a massive improvement as he ages. It would be great if we get that from him, but I wouldn't pay him based on a 3+ War in 2018.

[SeaBass]

The good news regarding HH19 going all-in now on the Cobb stuff is that at least we should know in the next couple of days if this guy is a complete fraud or if he actually might have a legit source? I have my serious doubts now (especially the way he's handling himself on Twitter), but I do hope he's right with this Cobb prediction.

 

Of course, he could just be making an educated guess on Cobb (while not having any source with the Brewers), but I'd definitely have a bump in faith in him if Cobb to the Brewers plays out here in the next 24-48 hours.

 

Thing is having a legit source doesn't mean the source is always correct on everything since the source is only hearing the Brewers side of things and doesn't have access to the player's views or other teams views. The source itself is working with limited info, passing on what he can, then someone like an HH passes on what he can. There's so many variables in there, that's why it's so dumb to try and discredit someone and 'prove' they're a fraud. Just take it for what it is.

 

Have to agree. My feeling is that talks and decisions are very fluid among GM's. Things can easily change minute by minute, hour by hour. Like dropping a message in a bottle into the ocean and trying to predict exactly when and where it will make landfall.

 

More on topic, the Brewers signing Cobb would be welcome news. I just want what's going to happen, to actually happen sooner rather than later.

[brewerhuman]

Should be Woodruff as I just copied from the previous post. Yes I do. Woodruff is 25. He has the stuff, he performed over that level last year if you scale his innings to ~160 even when he had a bad end of the year (likely tired due to his longest season). I am not against signing Cobb, I have advocated signing him in multiple posts as long as we don't overpay for the production he brings. I think he is excellent insurance against delayed Nelson recovery/performance and to keep us close going into the trade deadline where I hope we add that TOR starter through a trade. But at some point in the near future we will have younger alternatives that could out-produce him at a fraction of the cost.

 

Cobb wouldn't be replacing Woodruff in the rotation. He'd be replacing the 5-headed monster of Suter/Guerra/Wilkerson/Gallardo/Lopez, knocking the other guys down a spot. I think Woodruff is the #5 with a Cobb signing. When Nelson comes back, if everyone is still healthy, you kick whoever is performing poorest to the pen. Those type of situations typically have a way of working themselves out.

 

I think if adding Cobb and maybe another arm makes your rotation too deep, then I'll find a way to be okay with that.

[HighHeat19]

The good news regarding HH19 going all-in now on the Cobb stuff is that at least we should know in the next couple of days if this guy is a complete fraud or if he actually might have a legit source? I have my serious doubts now (especially the way he's handling himself on Twitter), but I do hope he's right with this Cobb prediction.

 

Of course, he could just be making an educated guess on Cobb (while not having any source with the Brewers), but I'd definitely have a bump in faith in him if Cobb to the Brewers plays out here in the next 24-48 hours.

 

Everyone should worry about themselves and let HH19 worry about himself. And last I looked, this is the Alex Cobb thread, let's keep it that way.

[McRibMcLove]

Cobb wouldn't be replacing Woodruff in the rotation. He'd be replacing the 5-headed monster of Suter/Guerra/Wilkerson/Gallardo/Lopez

 

I wouldn't include Suter in that "monster" definition, he outperformed Cobb last year (on a rate basis - half as many innings, 70% of the WAR). I don't understand ignoring the production we've gotten from our own guys and over-inflate what another teams pitcher has done. Suter is great as a spot starter and long-man. Yes, signing Cobb pushes the "monsters" to the bench (in the case of Gallardo, off the team) until Nelson returns then a decision will be made and I fully expect a push for a TOR to occur this year before the trade deadline. Come August I hope we have a very good rotation with an improved offense.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Cobb is going into his 2nd season post-Tommy John surgery, which is when you typically see an uptick in velocity and performance for pitchers. His numbers pre-surgery are near ace-level.

 

His best year was age 27 when he put up a nWAR of 2.8 (not elite). Davies has done that the last 2 years.

 

Cobb was 29 last year and everything in his performance curve matches age related decline. I don't see him having a huge year this year. He will benefit from the move to the NL and he may put up a 3 WAR, but there is nothing that clearly says he's due to a massive improvement as he ages. It would be great if we get that from him, but I wouldn't pay him based on a 3+ War in 2018.

 

I see matching WARs of 3.9 in his 25 and 26 year old seasons, which is pretty dang close to elite to me. He missed his 27-year old season, and the majority of his 28-year-old season with the Tommy John surgery, then put up a 2.4 WAR in 29 starts last year while knocking off the rust. I mean, yeah, he's not the "name" guy people are looking for, but going into 2015, he was considered Tampa's #1, ahead of Archer.

 

I just don't see where the problem is. If you are worried about injury history, yeah, he had nagging stuff that held him back a bit in the years before his elbow blew out. But he was durable last year, and yeah, he's got upside.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The good news regarding HH19 going all-in now on the Cobb stuff is that at least we should know in the next couple of days if this guy is a complete fraud or if he actually might have a legit source? I have my serious doubts now (especially the way he's handling himself on Twitter), but I do hope he's right with this Cobb prediction.

 

Of course, he could just be making an educated guess on Cobb (while not having any source with the Brewers), but I'd definitely have a bump in faith in him if Cobb to the Brewers plays out here in the next 24-48 hours.

 

Everyone should worry about themselves and let HH19 worry about himself. And last I looked, this is the Alex Cobb thread, let's keep it that way.

 

+1

[DR28]

The good news regarding HH19 going all-in now on the Cobb stuff is that at least we should know in the next couple of days if this guy is a complete fraud or if he actually might have a legit source? I have my serious doubts now (especially the way he's handling himself on Twitter), but I do hope he's right with this Cobb prediction.

 

Of course, he could just be making an educated guess on Cobb (while not having any source with the Brewers), but I'd definitely have a bump in faith in him if Cobb to the Brewers plays out here in the next 24-48 hours.

 

Everyone should worry about themselves and let HH19 worry about himself. And last I looked, this is the Alex Cobb thread, let's keep it that way.

 

HH bud... How likely is it we add Cobb? If so, how soon?

[Lathund]

I'm reasonably happy to, at this point, acquire just one more starter. My ideal scenario would be to acquire someone for Santana alone, or Santana + minor pieces, but that depends on who is out there. If it's a starter we like, then go for it. If the right deal is not out there, I'd still trade Santana but instead for 2B or prospects. And in that case, I'm leaning more and more towards Cobb. Provided the demands are even halfway resonable.

 

But really, I'm fine with any set of moves that sees us retain Woodruff, Burnes and Ortiz (Unless the return for one or more of them is truly spectacular). I simply don't believe in the idea of letting MLB-ready (Woodruff) or near MLB-ready (Ortiz, Burnes) top rated pitching prospects go. Developing homegrown rotation pieces, even if they "only" end up as #4-5 types is hugely valuable and further allows you to spend on the TOR if need be. These homegrown options are cheap for several years, and will have the flexibility of remaining option years which is something that's often overlooked.

 

So add one more arm, to go with Anderson, Davies, Chacin and Woodruff in the rotation. Suter/Gallardo/Wilkerson/Guerra hold the line until Burnes/Nelson are ready. Houser and Williams are dark horses as well, though perhaps more likely to end up in the 'pen. If that arm is Cobb, I'm alright with that as long as it's not Darvish-level AAV.

[clancyphile]

I have no doubt Wilkerson could put up 80% of the WAR Cobb does in a season and cost 5% of Cobb

 

Really, you're that sure about a 28-year old who has ~100 innings above AA?

 

Should be Woodruff as I just copied from the previous post. Yes I do. Woodruff is 25. He has the stuff, he performed over that level last year if you scale his innings to ~160 even when he had a bad end of the year (likely tired due to his longest season). I am not against signing Cobb, I have advocated signing him in multiple posts as long as we don't overpay for the production he brings. I think he is excellent insurance against delayed Nelson recovery/performance and to keep us close going into the trade deadline where I hope we add that TOR starter through a trade. But at some point in the near future we will have younger alternatives that could out-produce him at a fraction of the cost.

 

I concur. Despite the Yelich trade, the Crew still has Woodruff and Suter, both of whose peripherals (WHIP, H9, BB9, K9) look very encouraging when compared to Davies's on the major league roster. In AA/AAA, the Crew has Wilkerson, Luis Ortiz, Corbin Burnes, Angel Ventura, and Bubba Derby. Down a little further in AA/A+/A are Jon Perrin, Josh Pennington, Freddy Peralta, Cameron Roegner, Cody Ponce, Trey Supak, Freisis Adames, and Drake Owenby.

 

Signing Cobb could open some interesting possibilities. I could see the Brewers wanting to get some big help at 2B and C.

 

Santana+Woodruff for Mejia-plus from Cleveland? Or maybe Davies headlines a package?

 

Maybe go back to the Marlins well, and see what it would take to get Starlin Castro (who wants out)? That could be cheap.

 

There are options...

[Boomer5]

Cobb is just a guy, but he is available, relatively low cost, and would be our number 3 and a decent insurance policy if Nelson can't return to form.

 

I still think there is an Archer/Fulmer deal coming after the Cobb move, because Nelsons injury doesn't have a great history.

 

Cobb by himself just makes us a decent team that can challenge for a WC, not become a serious WS team.

[McRibMcLove]

Cobb wouldn't be replacing Woodruff in the rotation. He'd be replacing the 5-headed monster of Suter/Guerra/Wilkerson/Gallardo/Lopez

 

Don't know where you are getting your WAR numbers. I use fangraphs (because they actually come up with analytics, not baseball reference which doesn't) and Cobb has 2.2 and 2.5 the years before his 2.8 (if that = elite then Davies is TOR).

 

I just don't see where the problem is.

 

1) I don't discount our own players as you are clearly doing

2) I don't inflate players on other teams.

3) I don't overpay for production. read my lips: "I want the Brewers to sign Cobb at a max of 4/60" Nothing in that says I don't LIKE him. I simply don't LOVE him and don't expect production he never has had before at an older age.

 

If they need to go higher, the additional money might be better spent when trying to get a TOR at the trade deadline.

[bill hAll Star]

If they need to go higher, the additional money might be better spent when trying to get a TOR at the trade deadline.

 

Additional money and key prospects. A trade for a TOR starter at any point is either a lock or at least sets off the final series of events to lock in the fact that we've decided that our window is 2018-2021. I have a hard time seeing the Brewers do anything serious 3-4 years from now if we've depleted our upper-tier of prospects and most of our currently controlled players are going to be getting older or leaving in 2021.

 

Signing Cobb allows us to keep Burnes, Peralta, etc. for a potential future trade if we so choose or also as a backup option to either use in the next window of contention or as a wild card that maybe one of those guys develops into a stud.

 

We can all celebrate that Chris Archer is only getting paid $7.5 million the next few years when we likely are close to capped out anyways and have no future after the Archer years. There's more than just "X player is getting paid Y amount" in analysis.