Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[DuWayne Steurer]

Guys.... let's stop repeatedly posting links to Twitter flame wars here. It serves no purpose here, it's cluttering up threads, and we just don't need it here. We're going to just trash posts referencing the flaming garbage that's going on over at Twitter from here on out. If you're posting actual news or trade/signing rumors, cool, bring it on. But just posting links to flame wars? Keep it out of here please. Thanks.

[brewmann04]

The biggest question is the unknown about Jimmy at this point and how effective will he be. So the crew needs to get at least one arm before the season starts.

[MVP2110]

If the Brewers can sign Cobb for roughly what it cost the Cubs to acquire Chatwood that is a win. The Brewers need to look at Cobb as their acquisition to counter Chatwood. They still have work to do to counter Darvish.

 

I would argue Darvish was the response to Yelich/Cain

[JohnBriggs12]

Cobb had a 2.4 WAR last year ranking him 67th in MLB among all pitchers. His two years prior to TJ he put up a 3.9 WAR in consecutive years. 2017 was his first full comeback year so there's every reason to believe he'll be even stronger in 2018. A 3.0 WAR is not at all a stretch given he's getting out of the AL East and and he's 1 more year removed from TJ. And a 3.0 WAR would make him a top 40 pitcher. That's a solid #2 starter.

 

I've been warming to the idea of Cobb for the reasons you cite. I think his best years could be ahead of him unlike any of the FA starters.

[reillymcshane]

Hey gang, this is my first ever post. Wanted to hop in and say that I'm okay with Cobb on the condition that they turn around and make a trade for another quality starter. I was hoping for Yu or Jake too, but the more I thought about it, the more comfortable I am with it. If you sign Cobb and get someone like Salazar/Odorizzi now, you kind of turn the rotation into a position of strength [in terms of depth]. If an opportunity to trade for Archer or Stroman comes before Opening Day or the deadline, you might be able to include a major league-ish ready arm in addition to whatever the other parts of the package are. Perhaps that's too dreamy, but if Boras is holding Arrieta to the point where Stearns & Co. can't consider signing him as valuable, I'm okay with this plan of action. What do you all think?

Welcome aboard, brewerhuman.

 

As for Cobb, I'm guessing we only go for one more starter at this time. Another starter sends Woodruff to the minors - and I don't think he has anything else to prove there. Time to let him play.

 

Not adding another starter does open us up to an early season injury, but I think we should look at Nelson and Burnes as possible mid-season additions should someone go down or be ineffective. Otherwise, you have Suter and Gallardo to handle spot starts.

 

Just my guess.

[tigerbrew]

[JohnBriggs12]

One doesn't have to look to far to see where a signing like Darvish or Arrieta has the potential to cripple a franchise like the Brewers. Who saw Jordan Zimmermann falling off a cliff after signing a 5 year $105 million deal with Detroit after the 2015 season? This was a guy who finished in the top 7 in the Cy Young voting in 13 and 14. How about James Shields? The guy was an absolute workhorse from 2007 to 2014, logging 200+ innings each year. Entering his age 33 season the Padres got him for what seemed to be a reasonable at the time 4 years and $75 million. He hasn't performed up to that contract from day one.

 

Both Cobb and Darvish are post TJ surgery. Darvish is getting paid like a TOR starter, but has logged 200+ once. His career peaked in 2013-14. He's still good and could help the Cubs get another ring, but what will he look like in 3 or 4 years? Cubs could take that risk. Brewers can't.

 

Cobb on the other hand assuming a 3-4 year deal for something like $13-$14 won't cripple the Brewer franchise even if he fails miserably. He's a year younger and his peak years of 2013-14 are comparable to Darvish at the same time in every respect other than IP and K rate. For the Brewers, it's about getting to the postseason. If over the next couple years they are in great position at the deadline to make a needle moving deal that helps their chances in the postseason, they have the chips to do it.

[Oldcity]

Yep. Cobb is the way to go. I'd go as high as 4 years/70-75 million to get it done soon. That's not a crippling contract even if it doesn't work out. Arrieta/Boras can pound sand.

[benji]

My only question is Cobb that much better than the internal options?

 

 

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[Rays29]

Hi Everyone- This is my first time posting on the Forum. With that said, after the Yelich and Cain acquistions there was not just talk about making the playoffs but talk about winning division titles and World Series. I understand that the team as is would have to have many many many things go right for them this year for the chance to win the division and better yet the World Series, but my question to everyone is, if the team made some upgrades and acquistions prior/during year are there any that would on paper make them a legit division or World Series contender? Or should we just be hoping for the one-game wild card playoff? Just trying to be realistic with my expectations this year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My only question is Cobb that much better than the internal options?

 

 

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Better than Anderson? Well, if we get the same Anderson we got last year, that is arguable. Better than Davies, Chacin, Woodruff and Gallardo/Wilkerson/Suter/Guerra/Lopez? That's a big yes. On the current staff the way it is constructed, Cobb is basically a co-#1 with Anderson, and slides down if/when Nelson comes back and regains form. I would say stuff-wise, Cobb is a notch above Anderson as well. He'd be an extremely solid pickup.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hi Everyone- This is my first time posting on the Forum. With that said, after the Yelich and Cain acquistions there was not just talk about making the playoffs but talk about winning division titles and World Series. I understand that the team as is would have to have many many many things go right for them this year for the chance to win the division and better yet the World Series, but my question to everyone is, if the team made some upgrades and acquistions prior/during year are there any that would on paper make them a legit division or World Series contender? Or should we just be hoping for the one-game wild card playoff? Just trying to be realistic with my expectations this year.

 

That's pretty much impossible to predict. I mean, that's why they play 162 games, right? I mean, no one knew that the Cubs would stumble out of the gate last year, and that the upstart Brewers would spend more than half the season in 1st place. But it happened.

 

I think the acquisitions of Cain and Yelich got a lot of fans excited, but now that it has had time to calm, I think expectations need to be tempered a bit. Is this team a playoff contender? Yes, no doubt. They are better than they were last year, and they were a playoff contender through 161 games last year. Are they a division title contender? Yes, but with the caveat that, at least on paper, the Cubs and Brewers probably have similar offensive upside, while the Cubs rotation is a notch above the Brewers. Also, the Brewers aren't going to sneak up on anyone this year. The rest of the league knows they are a playoff contender.

 

Right now, I am expecting them to be in the thick of the wild card race, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they were battling with the Cubs for the division up until the end. And depending on what moves can still be made before the season even starts, that expectation may very well improve.

[Rays29]

Makes sense. On paper the Brewers are a solid team that got better in the offseason and if a lot of things go right behind the seasons they could compete for the division this year. However on paper there would be no reasons for anyone outside of the Brewers organization/fan base to consider them serious division contenders. I guess the great thing about baseball is that its not played on paper but it would be nice for a change to have legit WS hope that is based on logic and reason. But maybe that is something that will come mid season or in seasons to follow. Thanks for your response.

[coolhandluke121]

I could be sold on Cobb if it's roughly an extra year and $2m/per more than Chatwood. He should be solid.

[mlloyd10]

3/48

[jjfanec]

Thought this provided a balanced look at Cobb - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2735370-mlb-position-power-rankings-brs-final-top-80-starting-pitchers-of-2017

 

Age: 30

 

Key Stats: 29 G, 179.1 IP, 6.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 93 OPS+, 3.66 ERA, 114 ERA+

 

WAR: 2.4

 

2017 Player Report

 

Alex Cobb didn't rack up many strikeouts in 2017, nor did he avoid getting hit hard. As such, some of the credit for his season must be deflected onto the Tampa Bay Rays' strong defense.

 

However, the man himself wouldn't be here if he didn't also deserve credit.

 

"Cobb was a standout for stats like "Release:Tunnel" and "Post-tunnel Break." In English: He was really good at disguising his pitches and produced more late movement than the average pitcher. Beyond a 2.2 BB/9, one of the primary benefits was frequent contact outside the zone, on which he held hitters to a .189 average.

 

There's no mistaking Cobb for an ace, but he was in 2017 what he'd been back before injuries in 2013 and 2014: a hidden gem."

 

He graded out as the 32nd best pitcher in baseball. Definitely not a star but a solid pitcher. He should come much cheaper than Arrieta or Darvish. If he is the 32nd best starter in baseball again and if we can get similar performances out of Anderson, Davies, Chacin and then Nelson when he returns we will be fine. We also keep Santana and prospects if we want to make another move to a starter.

[brewcrewdue80]

My only question is Cobb that much better than the internal options?

 

 

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Going off a

 

Nelson

Anderson

Chacin

Davies

Woodruff

 

Expected 5 man rotation, most definitely. He has a smaller window of projection over all 5 and the bottom of that window is close to the top of Davies window. The other 4 can beat that bottom and in Nelson/Anderson exceed his top. The overall is he'd slide in an equal to Nelson/Anderson probably even to Opening Day starter as our 4th game is the Home Opener.

 

After Woodruff, there isn't a current 5th starter with Nelson out remotely close to Cobb. At least that statement is currently, and not if a future SP is found by other means before Cobb's signing.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Santana Woodruff goes in a trade package potentially.

[brewerhuman]

My only question is Cobb that much better than the internal options?

 

 

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I don't know who he is or isn't better than in the current rotation, but I don't think that's necessarily the right question to ask for Cobb. I forgot to include this in my first post last night, but I've warmed to Cobb+ because I think Stearns sees value* there if his price is under 18-20m a year. Maybe it doesn't make the Cubs afraid of the Brewers like a Yu or Arrieta signing could, but it does make the Brewers better and their rotation depth better, which I think is Stearns primary interest.

 

* to be clear, when I say value, I don't mean discount. I think Cobb is good and may possess a little more upside with this being Year 2 after TJ. With Yu or Arrieta, I get the sense that Stearns may not have wanted to concede everything they've asked for without some reward on the other end for him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Santana Woodruff goes in a trade package potentially.

 

For who?

[KCBrewerfan34]

The pitching names are out there for trades.

[brewmann04]

I hope they add Cobb before Arietta goes or the price will go higher

[tmwiese55]

I was thinking the same, at some point you'd think these guys would just want to put the offseason behind them, put the money in the bank and get to spring training to get ready for the season. Just get it done in the next couple days.

[Mr Southpaw]

4/68 is my limit

Would like it to be

4/60

[McRibMcLove]

Better than Davies, Chacin, Woodruff and Gallardo/Wilkerson/Suter/Guerra/Lopez? That's a big yes.

 

Take Davies out and you have a yes. Davies has out-produced Cobb the last 2 years (compared to the last 2+ years of Cobb).

 

Cobb would be the 4th best pitcher on the Brewers. He's older than our top 3 and likely not on any upward production curve. While he guarantees that only 1 of Woodruff/Gallardo/Wilkerson/Suter/Guerra/Lopez makes the starting 5 until Nelson returns, he is not elite enough to block a young guy such as Wilkerson or Burnes. He's a decent pitcher available on the open market for money only. I hope the Brewers spend enough to get him as long as he's under 4/60, but going higher really doesn't do that much to improve the Brewers (I have no doubt Wilkerson could put up 80% of the WAR Cobb does in a season and cost 5% of Cobb) and just spends money for the sake of spending money.