Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[pacopete4]

We need to sign Walker, he's the perfect fit at 2B and really lengthens our lineup... Assuming Santana stays.

I guess I don't see how Santana staying matters. If you think Walker is a fit at 2B, he would be whether Santana is here or not.

[DR28]

If Walker is signed, Villar is gone. Both Sogard and Perez can play SS better than Villar, and Perez can play better 3B. Perez can also play all 3 OF spots if needed. Villar's being kept either as potential trade bait or on the off chance he'll rediscover his 2016 stroke, not to be an end of the bench guy. Sogard and Perez are better bench players. Villar's OPS vs. LHP in 2017: .607. Perez vs. LHP in 2017: .789. You want to give Walker (who's a much better hitter from the left side) or Shaw a day off vs. a LHP? Perez is the guy. Give Arcia a day off here and there vs. a RHP? Sogard is your guy. Especially if Aguilar isn't around and a RH bat is needed late, I'd take Perez over Villar.

Why does everyone think they are going to sign Walker? Did I miss something there?

 

Mets were the only other obvious suter and they chose to sign Frazier to slide Cabrera to 2B.

[DR28]

We need to sign Walker, he's the perfect fit at 2B and really lengthens our lineup... Assuming Santana stays.

I guess I don't see how Santana staying matters. If you think Walker is a fit at 2B, he would be whether Santana is here or not.

 

Sorry, I meant having Santana and Walker in our lineup really lengthens it... I grouped the words together wrong.

[TJseven7]

Merely having anderson davies and 3 guys who just dont suck would be an upgrade.

Maybe I simply undervalue Anderson and Davies but I just don't see those two leading a championship rotation. I also think that every time these conversations come up we fail to mention that Nelson is not a part of this team at the moment. That production has to be replaced. It's not simply a matter of just replacing the sucky parts of the rotation with mediocrity. They also need to replace pretty darn good starter.

 

Absolutely. But if Nelson doesn't come back strong there isn't even a discussion. Teams not good enough. The 1-2 these giants toss out force us to have 3 that can hang around. We have 1 right now. Getting 2 more right now bleeds the cap and the farm. As for davies and anderson. Anderson has been amazing for quite a stretch here. Its not ace dominant but its ace results. If he's late bloomed, I give him a shot at getting thru 5 within 1 run of anyone vs anyone. Davies is a different case. He's hot and cold with his control sharpness. Nothing says this dude should be sub 4 era but he keeps doing it. Bad first 4 starts then he gets in a groove and the era slides down more and more. If he's on... i could absolutely see the guy pull a Charlie Morton post season. That 3 would give the team a shot vs anyone. But no nelson... even adding archer asks chacin or woodruff and davies to have a special run.

 

The angle I keep looking back at is KC. Knebel hader. Maybes... albers barnes jeffress bickford williams houser peralta. After seeing the pens fume out in the playoffs... get through 4-5 ip close and win late.

[pacopete4]

No one expected what Anderson gave us last season. Maybe he regresses or that is who he is. And maybe another pitcher takes a step like Jimmy and Chase did last season. Maybe Davies does? Maybe Burnes continues to light it up and comes up? Maybe a lot of different things happen. I know we all want to grab pitching, and we should, but if we don't, you can't just write off players. Every year is so different.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If Walker is signed, Villar is gone. Both Sogard and Perez can play SS better than Villar, and Perez can play better 3B. Perez can also play all 3 OF spots if needed. Villar's being kept either as potential trade bait or on the off chance he'll rediscover his 2016 stroke, not to be an end of the bench guy. Sogard and Perez are better bench players. Villar's OPS vs. LHP in 2017: .607. Perez vs. LHP in 2017: .789. You want to give Walker (who's a much better hitter from the left side) or Shaw a day off vs. a LHP? Perez is the guy. Give Arcia a day off here and there vs. a RHP? Sogard is your guy. Especially if Aguilar isn't around and a RH bat is needed late, I'd take Perez over Villar.

Why does everyone think they are going to sign Walker? Did I miss something there?

 

Probably just connecting the dots. The Brewers have a need at 2B, obviously there is a familiarity there, and the lack of interest in Walker may be bringing his price point into the range the Brewers are comfortable with. It wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers have an offer extended to Walker already, but I'm sure he's holding off because it's only for 2 years, and he wants 3-4. He was a nice fit in the lineup last year, and offers more consistency than Villar, albeit without near the upside.

 

I agree, though, that if Walker is signed, Villar is redundant and is likely gone. Perhaps a team will throw a low-level prospect flyer at the Brewers for him, but it isn't going to be much.

[KeithStone53151]

 

If Walker is signed, Villar is gone. Both Sogard and Perez can play SS better than Villar, and Perez can play better 3B. Perez can also play all 3 OF spots if needed. Villar's being kept either as potential trade bait or on the off chance he'll rediscover his 2016 stroke, not to be an end of the bench guy. Sogard and Perez are better bench players. Villar's OPS vs. LHP in 2017: .607. Perez vs. LHP in 2017: .789. You want to give Walker (who's a much better hitter from the left side) or Shaw a day off vs. a LHP? Perez is the guy. Give Arcia a day off here and there vs. a RHP? Sogard is your guy. Especially if Aguilar isn't around and a RH bat is needed late, I'd take Perez over Villar.

 

You make good points on Walker/Villar and I generally agree, but one thing Villar has that's best on our team is base running/stealing ability. That would be extremely valuable late in games and could tilt at least a few games in our direction. Even if he doesn't steal, the guy on the mound KNOWS he can steal...that certainly helps the guy in the batters box. Also, I would probably rather Villar fill in in the event of injury than see Perez get a ton of starts. Perez versatility won't be as critical with Sogard on the team and a true 4th OF(along with 3 that can play CF).

 

My reasons for moving Villar over Perez would be geared more toward Villar having more value on the trade market. I think you could use the sell that he's an expensive lottery ticket for a 2nd division team that could move him at the deadline if he returns to 2016 form...or keep him for when the rebuild is complete depending on the specific team situation.

[82brewcrew82]

No one expected what Anderson gave us last season. Maybe he regresses or that is who he is. And maybe another pitcher takes a step like Jimmy and Chase did last season. Maybe Davies does? Maybe Burnes continues to light it up and comes up? Maybe a lot of different things happen. I know we all want to grab pitching, and we should, but if we don't, you can't just write off players. Every year is so different.

Right, but we can make reasonable inferences, right? I'm not writing anyone off and Anderson had a great second half but do we write off the fact that the three years prior.....not so much? In other words, I think it's more reasonable to think of Anderson as a 3/4 than to assume he is the exception to the rule and broke out the second half of last year. Sure, every year is different and lots of different things can happen. That doesn't mean you plan for the most optimistic outcome for each of those things. That means you understand the risks involved and take measures to mitigate those risks.

 

By the way, I am not knocking Anderson. I just think of him like I did Marcum. He is a really good three on a championship caliber team. Problem is, he is our one right now.

[TJseven7]

If Walker is signed, Villar is gone.

 

If Walker is to be signed, I think Sogard should be the one to go. He won't be. Because Counsell probably plays through him most likely. But he should be. If we go into the season depending on Sogard at all, we will be deeply disappointed. At least with Villar, there is a chance for him to be a good player. Sogard, I don't buy it for a minute. Although one hot streak last season probably cemented him on this team until Counsell is fired.

 

This. Perez has his Lhp usage. Plays everywhere. Villar is still a talent who could be used as a sub and if he catches fire again he could be traded. Sogard is sogard. But its bad asset management to keep a guy no one would trade for over a sell low talent like villar. Villar drives me nuts but you cant deny he's got tools.

 

As for the idea of adding walker. Perfect huira bridge candidate. As for elongating the stack... any way you slice it.

 

Cain yelich braun/thames shaw santana walker pina arcia

Cain yelich braun shaw thames/aguilar walker pina arcia

Even

Cain yelich braun/thames shaw walker phillips pina arcia

 

With the 5 pack as is we can afford villar another shot. Maybe even bat arcia 6th and pina 8th. If we move santana, the offense needs a 2b it can depend on.

[82brewcrew82]

If Walker is signed, Villar is gone. Both Sogard and Perez can play SS better than Villar, and Perez can play better 3B. Perez can also play all 3 OF spots if needed. Villar's being kept either as potential trade bait or on the off chance he'll rediscover his 2016 stroke, not to be an end of the bench guy. Sogard and Perez are better bench players. Villar's OPS vs. LHP in 2017: .607. Perez vs. LHP in 2017: .789. You want to give Walker (who's a much better hitter from the left side) or Shaw a day off vs. a LHP? Perez is the guy. Give Arcia a day off here and there vs. a RHP? Sogard is your guy. Especially if Aguilar isn't around and a RH bat is needed late, I'd take Perez over Villar.

Why does everyone think they are going to sign Walker? Did I miss something there?

 

Mets were the only other obvious suter and they chose to sign Frazier to slide Cabrera to 2B.

Fair enough. I would still say go with Villar to start. Any available resources should be put into pitching at this point. I would think a decent upgrade at second would be an easier mid season fix than trying to nab pitching. I can't even remember what Walker cost us to be honest.

[Boomer5]

Boy what's not to like with this lineup?

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Piña

Arcia

 

Bench:

Thames

Vogt

Phillips

Villar

Hernan/Sogard (One might have to go if Walker is signed)

I'm not saying it's a bad lineup. The question is how does it look when compared to the competition. Do you put that lineup over the Cubs? The Dodgers? The Nationals? If there isn't major regression from the top five or six spots, sure, that is a good lineup. I still don't know that I'd say it's better then the teams I mentioned. For the most part those lineups have players with longer track records. They just don't have the question marks we do.

 

And even if you do say it's better do you put the current rotation up against Kershaw/Hill/Wood/Maeda? How about Scherzer/Stasburg/Gonzalez? How about Lester/Quintana/Hendricks/Darvish (probably)?

 

I know I'd feel a lot better about matching up a rotation of Arietta/Nelson (assuming health)/Anderson/Salazar with those groups. I'd be far more confident in that than Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Chacin.

 

Sorry if that isn't upbeat enough but I can't help but feel that the excitement of the offensive acquisitions is muted by the failure to improve the pitching. Maybe that changes and I will certainly have a different outlook if it does but at this point the team is what it is.....speculation aside.

 

The Brewers were 10th in the NL in runs scored with pretty much everyone but Braun and Villar having career years.

 

The good news is the 1-2 were positively adressed. The bad news are the regression guys and likely losing Santana and his 870.

 

The pitching will get better because we are going to add a big arm (Cobb isn't that guy, but a nice second addition) and we added two GG candidates in the OF. If Phillips wins the RF job, that will be the best defensive OF in baseball.

[TJseven7]

No one expected what Anderson gave us last season. Maybe he regresses or that is who he is. And maybe another pitcher takes a step like Jimmy and Chase did last season. Maybe Davies does? Maybe Burnes continues to light it up and comes up? Maybe a lot of different things happen. I know we all want to grab pitching, and we should, but if we don't, you can't just write off players. Every year is so different.

Right, but we can make reasonable inferences, right? I'm not writing anyone off and Anderson had a great second half but do we write off the fact that the three years prior.....not so much? In other words, I think it's more reasonable to think of Anderson as a 3/4 than to assume he is the exception to the rule and broke out the second half of last year. Sure, every year is different and lots of different things can happen. That doesn't mean you plan for the most optimistic outcome for each of those things. That means you understand the risks involved and take measures to mitigate those risks.

 

By the way, I am not knocking Anderson. I just think of him like I did Marcum. He is a really good three on a championship caliber team. Problem is, he is our one right now.

 

Since July 25 of 2016... 202 ip... 62 er... 2.76

 

Nelson was put through pitching boot camp in 2016 and changed his mechanics. It finally clicked in 2017. Anderson got here in 2016. It clicked late july of 2016. I think our pitching coach is good.

[pacopete4]

I think our pitching coach is good.

 

[sarcasm]Well why didn't he fix Garza then?[/sarcasm]

 

Yes, I do agree with you here. It really is going to be interesting this year to see if some of these guys can repeat their performances and if he can get a few new guys to also produce better than expected.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Right, but we can make reasonable inferences, right? I'm not writing anyone off and Anderson had a great second half but do we write off the fact that the three years prior.....not so much? In other words, I think it's more reasonable to think of Anderson as a 3/4 than to assume he is the exception to the rule and broke out the second half of last year. Sure, every year is different and lots of different things can happen. That doesn't mean you plan for the most optimistic outcome for each of those things. That means you understand the risks involved and take measures to mitigate those risks.

 

By the way, I am not knocking Anderson. I just think of him like I did Marcum. He is a really good three on a championship caliber team. Problem is, he is our one right now.

 

The Brewers were able to ride several players performing above career norms to 86 wins and the cusp of a playoff birth last year. We'll no doubt see regression and/or injuries from a few of those guys, because that's just how the game works. I think there is also a chance, though, that several of the teams very young players take the next step. Certainly Arcia falls into that category, and Davies as well. Woodruff certainly has the talent to potentially replace a portion of Nelson's success. Having Hader for a whole year at the back end of the pen, and having Knebel locked in for a whole season as the closer is definitely an improvement.

 

Is it possible that guys like Shaw, Thames, Pina, Anderson and Santana (if he stays) may regress? Most certainly. But I personally don't think they all will, and the talent that the team has added this offseason should mitigate much of that regression. Certainly on paper, this team is improved on last year's squad.

 

I agree on the Anderson/Marcum comparison. At his best, Marcum was a solid #2 on a good team, and consistently a #3. I think that's the plane where Anderson operates as well. Those Marcum teams had Greinke as the clear-cut #1, though. Pitchers like Davies, Chacin and Woodruff, and potential acquisitions like Cobb, Lynn, Salazar, Archer and Odorizzi operate more at Anderson's plane than "in-his-prime" Greinke that the Brewers acquired in 2010. That type of pitcher just doesn't seem to be available this year, at least right now. Darvish at times has scratched the surface, but I'd still consider him a step down from prime Greinke. Now, if Nelson makes a full recovery and pitches like he did last year, he's got a shot at that level. But as we all know, that is a lot of "ifs".

[TJseven7]

I think our pitching coach is good.

 

[sarcasm]Well why didn't he fix Garza then?[/sarcasm]

 

Yes, I do agree with you here. It really is going to be interesting this year to see if some of these guys can repeat their performances and if he can get a few new guys to also produce better than expected.

 

I believe anderson is a 3.2 guy now. Im still a tad pessimistic...but to close a season strong... hit the offseason... start off a 2.89... miss a chunk... come back and finish the year off blazing 2.47. Hard for me to call fluke. That's a highly shook up 200 inning fluke if its a fluke. Even pre injury I was more nervous with Nelson that I became about anderson.

 

Now if he can make woodruff nelson anderson part 3... giddy up. Burnes part 4... would be downright scary.

[Boomer5]

I'm not sure what else Anderson has to do to be believable. He's been very good for a year and a half. I'm very comfortable slotting Anderson and Davies in the middle of our rotation.

 

I'd be a lot more worried about someone like Shaw who had never reached anywhere near these levels then slowed down in the second half two years in a row.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm not sure what else Anderson has to do to be believable. He's been very good for a year and a half. I'm very comfortable slotting Anderson and Davies in the middle of our rotation.

 

I'd be a lot more worried about someone like Shaw who had never reached anywhere near these levels then slowed down in the second half two years in a row.

 

I think everyone is comfortable with Anderson in the middle of the rotation. I think the fear lies in the fact that, as of right now, he's not in the middle of the rotation. He's the #1 guy.

 

I'm not as worried about Shaw as others are. I really like his approach. I think he's always going to be somewhat of a streaky hitter, though. We're just going to have to roll with it.

[TJseven7]

"The Brewers were able to ride several players performing above career norms to 86 wins and the cusp of a playoff birth last year."

 

Yeah but its even hard to say career norms with these guys. Shaw basically did this at 25. At 26 he got screwed around with and tailed off. 27 he got a full shot and was ready for it. Santana was 24. He had an injury interupted start to his mlb career. It was his 1st year on the stage. Thames is a different dude now than his career before korea. Arcia was year 2. Pina was in his first go round. Aguilar first real go round. Sogard totally agree, no idea where that came from. Villar was bad. Braun was human. Broxton was bad.

 

I get what people are saying... but these guys just started their career. Their milb numbers tend to back it up. The league could adjust but at some point in your career you become what you are. Before then you struggle. It's hard to point at career norms when all the guys you point to have less than 2 full service years prior to last years explosions. It's not going to project well in systems because their history up until last year was them growing up.

 

Maybe we have a broxton villar mixed in this group. Maybe there's a lightning bolt who fades fast. It's also very possible we bought low on guys who have blossomed into what their career will be across the board. Pina is the one I look at cross eyed. Villar broxton were far more risky longevity wise than I feel shaw and santana are. Thames changed and matured. Aguilar could always hit. Arcia looked the part of his milb numbers.

 

So when people point at career best or regression I shake my head going, yeah but aren't they young and on the rise as well? Wouldn't you expect an uptick from young players who are settling into the majors?

[brewcrewdue80]

As constructed now, I'd take the 2018 team over the '08 and '11 teams in a 7 game series. Boy, it's like reading that the game has shifted to RPs and that's why they are getting paid, but then having a quality SP because we don't match up well to the Cubs who hands down has nothing on our RPs. The Nationals hands down has nothing on our Bullpen. The Dodgers are scary but why wouldn't they be, they are in a League of their own, though their SP can be questionable. Of course that SP runs 100 deep and rotates at will with the new 10day DL. Point is, Kershaw can't start games 1-7.

There is also the matter of trade deadline or even Sept 1st deadline where Verlander was acquired. Bumgarner has 2 years control left if the Giants aren't competing this year. Texas has Cole Hamels. Stroman/Sanchez/Paxton have 3 years remaining if you go the Quintana trade route. One injury can wipe out this concern to face Kershaw or Scherzer. Happened to us with Sheets. And we also don't have a 1 year window here. It's easily 4 and likely more. We don't have to set this team up perfectly to win it all on paper. But at times I feel reading here like the world is ending after this season and we will never have another chance. Just think about opening comment, this team is better constructed now than '08 and '11. Not just the 25man but clearly the 40man depth.

[82brewcrew82]

Yeah, I guess I could buy that this team is maybe better in totality. Even with Yelich and Cain I don't think that combo strikes the same kind of fear that a prime Braun and Fielder did. I don't think the starting rotation on this team is better but I think the bullpen probably will be. Certainly the defense is leaps and bounds better. At the end of the day, I think both teams were/are incomplete.

[TJseven7]

1 more point on regression.

 

Cain vs heavy usage of broxton

Braun vs aguilar and some thames vs lhp

Yelich vs brinson phillips thames perez villar kirk franklin

If 2b gets worse shoot me in the face... at least it won't lead off.

 

Covers a lot of regression and is far more sound.

 

While the pitching is likely not as top heavy (missing nelson, knebel as, anderson stud, heck gem suter) its equally as hard to imagine being as bottom poor. (380 innings of 4.8 or worse) I think a garcia/corbin add makes it hard to imagine 1 guy sub 4.8. It's possible but 380 ip is a lot.

 

Woodruff was 4.8 in his getting feet wet start. Chacin for his career isn't close to 4.8. Albers barnes jeffress logan suter don't look 4.8. Garcia/corbin level add is nothing to get excited about but they also aren't Garza bad. The bottom is up from garza guerra peralta torres milone feliz etc.

[KeithStone53151]

1 more point on regression.

 

Cain vs heavy usage of broxton

Braun vs aguilar and some thames vs lhp

Yelich vs brinson phillips thames perez villar kirk franklin

If 2b gets worse shoot me in the face... at least it won't lead off.

 

Covers a lot of regression and is far more sound.

 

While the pitching is likely not as top heavy (missing nelson, knebel as, anderson stud, heck gem suter) its equally as hard to imagine being as bottom poor. (380 innings of 4.8 or worse) I think a garcia/corbin add makes it hard to imagine 1 guy sub 4.8. It's possible but 380 ip is a lot.

 

Right, I feel like most of our weakest spots were addressed to the point that even if we have regression in a couple other areas...we'll be net ahead of last year. Don't forget, the team we had at the end of 2017 was better than an 86 win team. We had so many players perform very poorly early on in the season, once we trimmed those guys and added guys like walker...the team was a serious playoff contender.

[SandyTolan]

I think it'd be a big mistake to let go of Villar at this point since they wouldn't get much for him.

 

Maybe Hernan could be added to a trade, or Sogard (despite the fact he's the kind of player CC loves) could be cut. I don't think his contract is guaranteed, is it?

 

If they sign Walker, and let go of Hernan, Villar could play the role Hernan did last year. Spelling Walker at 2B, Arcia at SS, Shaw at 3B, getting 3-4 starts per week, maybe playing his way into more ABs, and adding depth for a trading chip at the trading deadline. Much better than letting him go.

[TJseven7]

1 more point on regression.

 

Cain vs heavy usage of broxton

Braun vs aguilar and some thames vs lhp

Yelich vs brinson phillips thames perez villar kirk franklin

If 2b gets worse shoot me in the face... at least it won't lead off.

 

Covers a lot of regression and is far more sound.

 

While the pitching is likely not as top heavy (missing nelson, knebel as, anderson stud, heck gem suter) its equally as hard to imagine being as bottom poor. (380 innings of 4.8 or worse) I think a garcia/corbin add makes it hard to imagine 1 guy sub 4.8. It's possible but 380 ip is a lot.

 

Right, I feel like most of our weakest spots were addressed to the point that even if we have regression in a couple other areas...we'll be net ahead of last year. Don't forget, the team we had at the end of 2017 was better than an 86 win team. We had so many players perform very poorly early on in the season, once we trimmed those guys and added guys like walker...the team was a serious playoff contender.

 

Right. Walker is truly the piece left without replacement. But there have been 2 huge upgrades elsewhere. Down the stretch we lost anderson for a chunk then nelson. We were down an arm. Chacin replaces worse options. While swarzak and huges are out. Albers is in. Over 162 haders ip will outpace hader and swarzaks ip last year. Jeffress improves on our 1st half bp mess as well. Logan improves on drake. 1 more merely stable (4.2 era) starter makes this team stronger as a whole than any point last year.

 

The team can pull a garcia or corbin and see what the deadline holds. With overstock like santana and phillips waiting. Nelson on the mend. Burnes on the way. Maybe Derby? Williams, Houser, Bickford and Peralta if we declare them pen pieces. The depth is outstanding even if you only roll this team back 1 year. They could also easily crack off a diplan williams houser nottingham level prospect and bring in 2 of last years version of swazak to really stack the pen. Close the year with knebel hader albers and 2 "swarzaks." Jeffress barnes etc are just tap out arms at that point.

[TJseven7]

Side not on Davies.

 

I know all games count equal and all but...

 

First 3 games in 2016 and first 4 games in 2017.

33 ip, 31 er.... 8.45 era

The rest

321.2 ip, 124 er..... 3.47 era

 

Not a playoff pitcher?