Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[82brewcrew82]

Yea good point with Jimmy... We'll see what happens I guess.

 

If we keep Santana and move Braun to 1st, I'm confident rolling with our stacked offense and rotation full of #2's and #3's.

 

I would feel even better about our offense if we sign Walker...

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

I mean come on, that's a damn good offense!

Maybe. IF we had Walker. IF Pina doesn't regress. IF Braun stays healthy. Are those things more, or less likely to happen?

Does this help with the context? My comment was in response to the proposed lineup above being a really good offense, which it is. Having said that, Braun won't always be there, it is likely Pina regresses and Walker is not part of this team. So yeah, those are legitimate questions when calling this a darn good offense. Otherwise, I have no idea what your trying to point out. I didn't say anything about how many games better or worse the team would be. However, you failed to factor in the loss of Nelson into your calculus. They have improved the offense but the pitching surely isn't better off.

[brewmann04]

There is always what ifs in any lineups for any team . What would the yankees look like if both Judge and Staton got injured. this lineup would be nice to watch hopefully guys making more contact.

[DR28]

Do u guys not see Chase as the Ace he was last year?

 

He's our Kyle Hendricks.

[PeaveyFury]

Chase had one (very) good year. We have to hope that it continues, but I'm not sure it should be counted on. He was a very average pitcher for his three seasons before that.

[KeithStone53151]

Chase had one (very) good year. We have to hope that it continues, but I'm not sure it should be counted on. He was a very average pitcher for his three seasons before that.

 

Guys coming on at an age like his are the exception, not the rule...that's undeniable. He could be Guerra, or he could be Arrieta-lite who's adjustments stick and are incredibly effective. Like Guerra, his sustained success relies heavily on him maintaining that velocity. 95-96 instead of 90-92 makes everything else play up.

[82brewcrew82]

Chase had one (very) good year. We have to hope that it continues, but I'm not sure it should be counted on. He was a very average pitcher for his three seasons before that.

 

Guys coming on at an age like his are the exception, not the rule...that's undeniable. He could be Guerra, or he could be Arrieta-lite who's adjustments stick and are incredibly effective. Like Guerra, his sustained success relies heavily on him maintaining that velocity. 95-96 instead of 90-92 makes everything else play up.

I don't think Anderson will flame out completely but I don't think I count him as an ace. I'm not even sure I view him as 2 going into the season. They need more pitching.

[TJseven7]

Do u guys not see Chase as the Ace he was last year?

 

He's our Kyle Hendricks.

 

There was a lot of very positive talk about him improving in every facet since coming here. We quickly pounced on an extension. He didn't regress after missing time. In fact he closed the season as a 2.47 era. Left at 2.89 era.

 

I'm still leery to say yes he's sub 3. But I think the current Anderson is going to resemble last year a lot more than his other years. I think at seasons end he's close to top 30 in starter era.

 

I think there are about 8-10 aces. He's not that guy... but hes a 200 ip horse with a stellar era. I think he might outpace all of our rumored targets. Lynn Cobb Archer Salazar, Bauer. Only guys that have a shot in my mind are yu and a healthy arrieta... if that even exists.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yea good point with Jimmy... We'll see what happens I guess.

 

If we keep Santana and move Braun to 1st, I'm confident rolling with our stacked offense and rotation full of #2's and #3's.

 

I would feel even better about our offense if we sign Walker...

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

I mean come on, that's a damn good offense!

Maybe. IF we had Walker. IF Pina doesn't regress. IF Braun stays healthy. Are those things more, or less likely to happen?

Does this help with the context? My comment was in response to the proposed lineup above being a really good offense, which it is. Having said that, Braun won't always be there, it is likely Pina regresses and Walker is not part of this team. So yeah, those are legitimate questions when calling this a darn good offense. Otherwise, I have no idea what your trying to point out. I didn't say anything about how many games better or worse the team would be. However, you failed to factor in the loss of Nelson into your calculus. They have improved the offense but the pitching surely isn't better off.

 

To me Walker, Sogard, Villar, and Perez it doesn't matter who ends up being our 2b, we are having a really good offense with Pina regressing and Braun's health. It is all on the fact #1 and #2 in the batting order is solved way better than the mixing every other game done by Counsell. 3-5 are going to be great whether Santana is on the team or it's the platoon of Thames/Aguilar. Braun's health has either Phillips or the 1b platoon to slot in. I've argued this often here that it seems people expect a .800 or better OPS from EVERY position or else it's not a good offense. Arcia being just a .725-.750 isn't good enough. I say why? I posted this in the Alex Cobb thread. Houston won the WS and had 75 starts from 4+ERA pitchers some 6+ in there. They won 101 games and the WS. Well Houston had Carlos Beltran batting DH! of all things to the tune of .231/.283/.383/.666. Norika Aoki batted 1/3rd a season of PAs at .694 OPS. Brian McCann was their most used Catcher and he's been a .700-.760 OPS batter the last 4 seasons. It's good enough for a WS team to roll with a .700-.750 OPS catcher. Pina has been that and better in his last 4 seasons.

 

I believe regression hurts a team far more when it's your 1-4 hitters sprinkled in with 5. 6-9 can be dealt with by putting lower in the order. Cleveland another 100+ win team had Kipnis with .232/.291/.414/.715 line which clearly is a regression from his .762+ coming in to the season, still won 100+games.

 

Yelich and Cain are really improving this offense by so so much atop the order. Rather than hopes of a .300+ OB we got guys who likely bat .300.

Last season it was Villar-71 games, Sogard 50 games, Thames 16 as Leadoff and Thames 90, Santana 29, Walker 27 batting 2nd. Perez has 12 combined and Broxton had 11 combined for 1 or 2. That is .293 Villar, .299 Broxton, .289 Perez, Sogard and Thames were good overall, but Sogard hadn't had a .300+ OB his previous 2 seasons with a soft slg.

 

I just can't explain enough how great a Cain Yelich 1/2 will be atop this team. The 2008/2011 teams didn't have this quality atop the lineup. Weeks was .740OPS atop it in 08 and his 2nd best season prior to injury .818. Hardy led the 08 in #2 and Nyjer Morgan led it in '11.

Man, I'm so pumped up for this team get on the field!

[82brewcrew82]

I just can't explain enough how great a Cain Yelich 1/2 will be atop this team. The 2008/2011 teams didn't have this quality atop the lineup. Weeks was .740OPS atop it in 08 and his 2nd best season prior to injury .818. Hardy led the 08 in #2 and Nyjer Morgan led it in '11.

Man, I'm so pumped up for this team get on the field!

I'm with you. It's been a while since we've this much to look forward to. Having said that, the pitching still scares me a little bit. If Nelson were healthy then I'd feel better but he isn't and there is no guarantee he will be. I don't think they need Kershaw, but they need improvements.

[SandyTolan]

I just can't explain enough how great a Cain Yelich 1/2 will be atop this team. The 2008/2011 teams didn't have this quality atop the lineup. Weeks was .740OPS atop it in 08 and his 2nd best season prior to injury .818. Hardy led the 08 in #2 and Nyjer Morgan led it in '11.

Man, I'm so pumped up for this team get on the field!

I'm with you. It's been a while since we've this much to look forward to. Having said that, the pitching still scares me a little bit. If Nelson were healthy then I'd feel better but he isn't and there is no guarantee he will be. I don't think they need Kershaw, but they need improvements.

 

I too wouldn't like to head into the season with our current rotation. But by all reports I seriously doubt that will happen. Adding say Cobb would mean Anderson/Cobb/Davies/Chacin and some combo of Woodruff/Guerra/Suter/Wilkerson/Gallardo. Until Nelson comes back strong, if he can. I think that's pretty good. And if they can roll with Domingo, put Braun at 1B with some spot starts in LF/RF, play Thames a little less against RHPs and not at all against LHPs, get a lottery ticket for Aguilar, that's all looking pretty good. They can stash Broxton in AAA if they can't get anything for him in a trade, and roll with Phillips as 4th OF, sometimes displaced by Braunie with his spot starts in corner OF. And yeah maybe sign Walker.

 

Boy what's not to like with this lineup?

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Piña

Arcia

 

Bench:

Thames

Vogt

Phillips

Villar

Hernan/Sogard (One might have to go if Walker is signed)

[TJseven7]

I just can't explain enough how great a Cain Yelich 1/2 will be atop this team. The 2008/2011 teams didn't have this quality atop the lineup. Weeks was .740OPS atop it in 08 and his 2nd best season prior to injury .818. Hardy led the 08 in #2 and Nyjer Morgan led it in '11.

Man, I'm so pumped up for this team get on the field!

I'm with you. It's been a while since we've this much to look forward to. Having said that, the pitching still scares me a little bit. If Nelson were healthy then I'd feel better but he isn't and there is no guarantee he will be. I don't think they need Kershaw, but they need improvements.

 

1-2 simply cant be overstated. Its something I begged for in the lineup thread. We need a 1-2. No one we had profiled as a 1-2 unless we put santana thames/aguilar there and that really shortens up the stack. Its 5 now 1 way or another. Villar arcia pina can do their thing and they are just extra. 1-5 carries this team.

 

Im actually not worried about pitching at all. Reason being 380 ip from guys 4.8 or lower. This staff simply has to be more stable. Woodruff chacin just have to be 4.2 guys and this staff can handle a lot of regression. Jeffress here was a bonus. Now he gets a full year. Hader for half a year was huge. A full year of him is like hader covers ip by hader and swarzak. Logan better than drake. If albers can simply replace hughes and knebel doesn't fall way off the pen is far better over the course of 162. We simply need a guy like gallardo or suter or wilkerson or 1 more fa to take the ball and not be guerra/garza/peralta and the staff will put the team in a better spot to win daily.

 

At no point last year did this team have a 1-2 batter that made you comfortable. At no point last year did this team have more than 3 good starters. Only after hader swarzak jeffress did the pen stabilize.

 

Merely having anderson davies and 3 guys who just dont suck would be an upgrade.

[82brewcrew82]

Boy what's not to like with this lineup?

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Piña

Arcia

 

Bench:

Thames

Vogt

Phillips

Villar

Hernan/Sogard (One might have to go if Walker is signed)

I'm not saying it's a bad lineup. The question is how does it look when compared to the competition. Do you put that lineup over the Cubs? The Dodgers? The Nationals? If there isn't major regression from the top five or six spots, sure, that is a good lineup. I still don't know that I'd say it's better then the teams I mentioned. For the most part those lineups have players with longer track records. They just don't have the question marks we do.

 

And even if you do say it's better do you put the current rotation up against Kershaw/Hill/Wood/Maeda? How about Scherzer/Stasburg/Gonzalez? How about Lester/Quintana/Hendricks/Darvish (probably)?

 

I know I'd feel a lot better about matching up a rotation of Arietta/Nelson (assuming health)/Anderson/Salazar with those groups. I'd be far more confident in that than Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Chacin.

 

Sorry if that isn't upbeat enough but I can't help but feel that the excitement of the offensive acquisitions is muted by the failure to improve the pitching. Maybe that changes and I will certainly have a different outlook if it does but at this point the team is what it is.....speculation aside.

[82brewcrew82]

Merely having anderson davies and 3 guys who just dont suck would be an upgrade.

Maybe I simply undervalue Anderson and Davies but I just don't see those two leading a championship rotation. I also think that every time these conversations come up we fail to mention that Nelson is not a part of this team at the moment. That production has to be replaced. It's not simply a matter of just replacing the sucky parts of the rotation with mediocrity. They also need to replace pretty darn good starter.

[TJseven7]

Boy what's not to like with this lineup?

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Piña

Arcia

 

Bench:

Thames

Vogt

Phillips

Villar

Hernan/Sogard (One might have to go if Walker is signed)

I'm not saying it's a bad lineup. The question is how does it look when compared to the competition. Do you put that lineup over the Cubs? The Dodgers? The Nationals? If there isn't major regression from the top five or six spots, sure, that is a good lineup. I still don't know that I'd say it's better then the teams I mentioned. For the most part those lineups have players with longer track records. They just don't have the question marks we do.

 

And even if you do say it's better do you put the current rotation up against Kershaw/Hill/Wood/Maeda? How about Scherzer/Stasburg/Gonzalez? How about Lester/Quintana/Hendricks/Darvish (probably)?

 

I know I'd feel a lot better about matching up a rotation of Arietta/Nelson (assuming health)/Anderson/Salazar with those groups. I'd be far more confident in that than Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Chacin.

 

Absolutely no doubt we'd be begging to tred water thru 5. Knebel hader albers this years swarzak and maybe barnes jeffress williams peralta? Team has to be pen dominant with this staff. Its the only way they win in the playoffs currently.

 

You also can put it past or analytics guys to go nelson anderson chacin/woodruff davies/suter. Go piggy pack for the post season with jeffress to gball jams.

[82brewcrew82]

Absolutely no doubt we'd be begging to tred water thru 5. Knebel hader albers this years swarzak and maybe barnes jeffress williams peralta? Team has to be pen dominant with this staff. Its the only way they win in the playoffs currently.

So what's the goal then? That seems like an awful lot of eggs in a single basket. What is the offensive drop off from Santana to Thames/Aguilar? How is that offset by improving a spot in the rotation with a Salazar or Archer?

[DR28]

I'm not saying it's a bad lineup. The question is how does it look when compared to the competition. Do you put that lineup over the Cubs? The Dodgers? The Nationals? If there isn't major regression from the top five or six spots, sure, that is a good lineup. I still don't know that I'd say it's better then the teams I mentioned. For the most part those lineups have players with longer track records. They just don't have the question marks we do.

 

And even if you do say it's better do you put the current rotation up against Kershaw/Hill/Wood/Maeda? How about Scherzer/Stasburg/Gonzalez? How about Lester/Quintana/Hendricks/Darvish (probably)?

 

I know I'd feel a lot better about matching up a rotation of Arietta/Nelson (assuming health)/Anderson/Salazar with those groups. I'd be far more confident in that than Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Chacin.

 

Sorry if that isn't upbeat enough but I can't help but feel that the excitement of the offensive acquisitions is muted by the failure to improve the pitching. Maybe that changes and I will certainly have a different outlook if it does but at this point the team is what it is.....speculation aside.

 

And all of those lineups have regression candidates as well..............

 

You really except Chris Taylor to continue what he did last year... Teams will figure out Bellinger... And Ryan Zimmerman to have the year he did last year, etc............

[Roderick]

Chase had one (very) good year. We have to hope that it continues, but I'm not sure it should be counted on. He was a very average pitcher for his three seasons before that.

 

Check his last half of 2016. He has had more than a year of excellent pitching under his belt. This is more than a Jungmann stretch of games that he has looked like a #2. I would say a #1, but he doesn't go deep enough in games, but maybe Counsell needs to let him.

[DR28]

Chase had one (very) good year. We have to hope that it continues, but I'm not sure it should be counted on. He was a very average pitcher for his three seasons before that.

 

Check his last half of 2016. He has had more than a year of excellent pitching under his belt. This is more than a Jungmann stretch of games that he has looked like a #2. I would say a #1, but he doesn't go deep enough in games, but maybe Counsell needs to let him.

 

Thank you!

 

Chase keeps pitching the way he did last year and add Cobb, I'll gladly take my chances with the rotation of...

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Our bullpen is much improved over last year as well.

[TJseven7]

Absolutely no doubt we'd be begging to tred water thru 5. Knebel hader albers this years swarzak and maybe barnes jeffress williams peralta? Team has to be pen dominant with this staff. Its the only way they win in the playoffs currently.

So what's the goal then? That seems like an awful lot of eggs in a single basket. What is the offensive drop off from Santana to Thames/Aguilar? How is that offset by improving a spot in the rotation with a Salazar or Archer?

 

What is the defensive drop off from playing ggers in non gg positions? Santana doesn't get you archer. Might not get you salazar. My goal is to not consider this a 1 year window. Be creative. Piggy back LR starters in chacin woodruff davies suter. Lean on the pen. Add where its frugal. Hope the top 2 can hang with the big boys. I'm not putting all our eggs in on archer and his 4.0 era. I dont think that fixes the issue. Even the trade deadline is a long way away. We don't even know what the team is by then. Nelson anderson aren't the real deal and this is useless talk. Thames aguilar regress and there's another hole.

 

Plan is to be in position and have assets. Team wisely got walker swarzak and jeffress last deadline for nothing. Plug holes on the cheap and let it play out. Be a rock solid team, shake things up a bit and make them beat you. They are better. It comes with a gaudy payroll. They are better. There's no trade that magically fixes that. But even those better teams... every one of them showed serious weaknesses. It's always going to be unlikely.

[SandyTolan]

OK so maybe in 2018, year one of the post-rebuild era, the Crew won't be fully equipped to win a World Series.

 

BUT... they'll likely get into the Wild Card, and possibly challenge the North Siders for the division title. Once they're in the playoffs, who knows what will happen? That could be a good philosophy to have for this first year.

 

But then next year, Hader could be ready to move into the rotation, Houser, Taylor Williams, and maybe Freddy Peralta could be bullpen studs, Phillips could be the regular RF if his bat plays (giving Milwaukee the best defensive OF in MLB), and the depth (Thames, Santana if he's still around, BP and even starter depth) could turn into additional help wherever it's needed, and/or prospects to extend the run. Starting in 2019 is where I see there could be a real move toward a prolonged WS run.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm not saying it's a bad lineup. The question is how does it look when compared to the competition. Do you put that lineup over the Cubs? The Dodgers? The Nationals? If there isn't major regression from the top five or six spots, sure, that is a good lineup. I still don't know that I'd say it's better then the teams I mentioned. For the most part those lineups have players with longer track records. They just don't have the question marks we do.

 

And even if you do say it's better do you put the current rotation up against Kershaw/Hill/Wood/Maeda? How about Scherzer/Stasburg/Gonzalez? How about Lester/Quintana/Hendricks/Darvish (probably)?

 

I know I'd feel a lot better about matching up a rotation of Arietta/Nelson (assuming health)/Anderson/Salazar with those groups. I'd be far more confident in that than Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Chacin.

 

Sorry if that isn't upbeat enough but I can't help but feel that the excitement of the offensive acquisitions is muted by the failure to improve the pitching. Maybe that changes and I will certainly have a different outlook if it does but at this point the team is what it is.....speculation aside.

 

And all of those lineups have regression candidates as well..............

Sure, but you can't go into the season assuming there's will regress and ours won't. Those lineups are better with a more proven track record of success. I also think those lineups/rosters are deeper and those teams have more resources that all help to mitigate that regression.

 

The only way this team can mitigate against that kind of risk is to spread the risk around. I think they have done a great job of improving the lineup and the defense. I think they have made some very astute signings for the pen (I also think Houser and Williams are sneaky good). The rotation is the weak link and improving that only helps to further spread that risk and keeps the team from being dependent on any one aspect of the game.

[JohnBriggs12]

I just can't explain enough how great a Cain Yelich 1/2 will be atop this team. The 2008/2011 teams didn't have this quality atop the lineup. Weeks was .740OPS atop it in 08 and his 2nd best season prior to injury .818. Hardy led the 08 in #2 and Nyjer Morgan led it in '11.

Man, I'm so pumped up for this team get on the field!

I'm with you. It's been a while since we've this much to look forward to. Having said that, the pitching still scares me a little bit. If Nelson were healthy then I'd feel better but he isn't and there is no guarantee he will be. I don't think they need Kershaw, but they need improvements.

 

I too wouldn't like to head into the season with our current rotation. But by all reports I seriously doubt that will happen. Adding say Cobb would mean Anderson/Cobb/Davies/Chacin and some combo of Woodruff/Guerra/Suter/Wilkerson/Gallardo. Until Nelson comes back strong, if he can. I think that's pretty good. And if they can roll with Domingo, put Braun at 1B with some spot starts in LF/RF, play Thames a little less against RHPs and not at all against LHPs, get a lottery ticket for Aguilar, that's all looking pretty good. They can stash Broxton in AAA if they can't get anything for him in a trade, and roll with Phillips as 4th OF, sometimes displaced by Braunie with his spot starts in corner OF. And yeah maybe sign Walker.

 

Boy what's not to like with this lineup?

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Piña

Arcia

 

Bench:

Thames

Vogt

Phillips

Villar

Hernan/Sogard (One might have to go if Walker is signed)

 

 

If Walker is signed, Villar is gone. Both Sogard and Perez can play SS better than Villar, and Perez can play better 3B. Perez can also play all 3 OF spots if needed. Villar's being kept either as potential trade bait or on the off chance he'll rediscover his 2016 stroke, not to be an end of the bench guy. Sogard and Perez are better bench players. Villar's OPS vs. LHP in 2017: .607. Perez vs. LHP in 2017: .789. You want to give Walker (who's a much better hitter from the left side) or Shaw a day off vs. a LHP? Perez is the guy. Give Arcia a day off here and there vs. a RHP? Sogard is your guy. Especially if Aguilar isn't around and a RH bat is needed late, I'd take Perez over Villar.

[pacopete4]

If Walker is signed, Villar is gone.

 

If Walker is to be signed, I think Sogard should be the one to go. He won't be. Because Counsell probably plays through him most likely. But he should be. If we go into the season depending on Sogard at all, we will be deeply disappointed. At least with Villar, there is a chance for him to be a good player. Sogard, I don't buy it for a minute. Although one hot streak last season probably cemented him on this team until Counsell is fired.

[DR28]

We need to sign Walker, he's the perfect fit at 2B and really lengthens our lineup... Assuming Santana stays.

[82brewcrew82]

If Walker is signed, Villar is gone. Both Sogard and Perez can play SS better than Villar, and Perez can play better 3B. Perez can also play all 3 OF spots if needed. Villar's being kept either as potential trade bait or on the off chance he'll rediscover his 2016 stroke, not to be an end of the bench guy. Sogard and Perez are better bench players. Villar's OPS vs. LHP in 2017: .607. Perez vs. LHP in 2017: .789. You want to give Walker (who's a much better hitter from the left side) or Shaw a day off vs. a LHP? Perez is the guy. Give Arcia a day off here and there vs. a RHP? Sogard is your guy. Especially if Aguilar isn't around and a RH bat is needed late, I'd take Perez over Villar.

Why does everyone think they are going to sign Walker? Did I miss something there?