Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[KeithStone53151]

Well, it's only speculation at this point, but Bob Nightengale is predicting the Brewers to sign Cobb. I'd be ok with that, as it isn't near the financial risk it would be to sign Arrieta or Darvish. Cobb also has a lot less milage on his arm.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/02/07/mlb-free-agency-unsigned-players-yu-darvish-jd-martinez-jake-arrieta-eric-hosmer/315148002/

 

Unrelated to Cobb...oh my goodness will Holland feel stupid if he settles for 2/25 instead of the 3/52 that was reportedly offered to him before it went to Davis.

 

I wouldn't hate that contract, I'd prefer lower dollars as I don't think he's worth $16 million per year.

 

As for the rest of the predictions, most of them seem fairly logical except the Moustakas one. I don't know why so many writers feel like the yankees deserve all the good players for extreme discounts.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, it's only speculation at this point, but Bob Nightengale is predicting the Brewers to sign Cobb. I'd be ok with that, as it isn't near the financial risk it would be to sign Arrieta or Darvish. Cobb also has a lot less milage on his arm.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/02/07/mlb-free-agency-unsigned-players-yu-darvish-jd-martinez-jake-arrieta-eric-hosmer/315148002/

Yeah, he may have some info that drives that but it's really just one of those prediction articles like the ones that come out when free agency starts. Having said that, I'm not sure I would like that move. I've seen a lot of informed back and forth as to his value/quality but I'm not sold either way yet.

 

Cobb strikes me as one of those "better stuff than results" types. I guess it would depend on what the contract is. Stuff-wise I'd say he's better than Chase Anderson, so it would be a matter of whether a move from the AL to the NL will help his numbers significantly, and if Derek Johnson can coax better results similar to what he's done with Nelson and Anderson. Cobb wouldn't be the flashiest signing, but it also wouldn't surprise me to see him be the most productive of the "Big 4" two seasons from now.

[brewmann04]

I still think they will come away with one of the 4FA pitchers. As the season gets closer they will start to sign for less than what the believe they were worth

[KeithStone53151]

I still think they will come away with one of the 4FA pitchers. As the season gets closer they will start to sign for less than what the believe they were worth

 

I'm going to take that as "as the season gets closer, they will start to sign for what they are actually worth"

[82brewcrew82]

Well, it's only speculation at this point, but Bob Nightengale is predicting the Brewers to sign Cobb. I'd be ok with that, as it isn't near the financial risk it would be to sign Arrieta or Darvish. Cobb also has a lot less milage on his arm.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/02/07/mlb-free-agency-unsigned-players-yu-darvish-jd-martinez-jake-arrieta-eric-hosmer/315148002/

Yeah, he may have some info that drives that but it's really just one of those prediction articles like the ones that come out when free agency starts. Having said that, I'm not sure I would like that move. I've seen a lot of informed back and forth as to his value/quality but I'm not sold either way yet.

 

Cobb strikes me as one of those "better stuff than results" types. I guess it would depend on what the contract is. Stuff-wise I'd say he's better than Chase Anderson, so it would be a matter of whether a move from the AL to the NL will help his numbers significantly, and if Derek Johnson can coax better results similar to what he's done with Nelson and Anderson. Cobb wouldn't be the flashiest signing, but it also wouldn't surprise me to see him be the most productive of the "Big 4" two seasons from now.

That seems like reasonable take. My answer, then, would be that I'd be fine with that if they added another starter besides him. He alone is not the answer in my opinion.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

That seems like reasonable take. My answer, then, would be that I'd be fine with that if they added another starter besides him. He alone is not the answer in my opinion.

 

I agree, and would love to see another starter added via trade. But time is running out if they want to accomplish that before Spring Training starts. And it still leaves them without a surefire #1. Instead, it's a bunch of #3 guys with #2 potential on a good day. But who knows ... maybe they have some sort of analytic that sees Cobb, Anderson, Davies or Chacin as Ace material.

[82brewcrew82]

That seems like reasonable take. My answer, then, would be that I'd be fine with that if they added another starter besides him. He alone is not the answer in my opinion.

 

I agree, and would love to see another starter added via trade. But time is running out if they want to accomplish that before Spring Training starts. And it still leaves them without a surefire #1. Instead, it's a bunch of #3 guys with #2 potential on a good day. But who knows ... maybe they have some sort of analytic that sees Cobb, Anderson, Davies or Chacin as Ace material.

I don't think they need an ace. If you can load up on 2/3 types, I think you can compete with that. I'd be fine with Arietta and Cobb with Anderson/Davies/Chacin following that. I don't think any of that group would be called an ace.

[Madhawk23]

Honestly, I think I'd sign up for that 4 yr, 65M deal right now with Cobb. I don't want the spend the money it is going to take to get Darvish, and Arrieta just scares me too much moving forward to give him the type of contract that he's going to command. I know Cobb comes with risks as well, but I could see him putting up very similar numbers over the next four years (assuming good health) to that of Darvish and Arrieta.

 

We could start the season with a rotation of Anderson, Cobb, Davies, Chacin and Woodruff. Then, we could evaluate what we have with Jimmy sometime in June - and if we are in contention - we can use some of our prospect pieces at that point to go out and find that TOR starter that we need (Stroman, deGrom, Fulmer, etc.).

[82brewcrew82]

Honestly, I think I'd sign up for that 4 yr, 65M deal right now with Cobb. I don't want the spend the money it is going to take to get Darvish, and Arrieta just scares me too much moving forward to give him the type of contract that he's going to command. I know Cobb comes with risks as well, but I could see him putting up very similar numbers over the next four years (assuming good health) to that of Darvish and Arrieta.

 

We could start the season with a rotation of Anderson, Cobb, Davies, Chacin and Woodruff. Then, we could evaluate what we have with Jimmy sometime in June - and if we are in contention - we can use some of our prospect pieces at that point to go out and find that TOR starter that we need (Stroman, deGrom, Fulmer, etc.).

I'm betting this is how it sets up, or something very close to this.

[StearnsFTW]

4/65 is way more than I'd be comfortable with. I'd offer him 3/45 knowing that won't do it.

[brewcrewdue80]

That seems like reasonable take. My answer, then, would be that I'd be fine with that if they added another starter besides him. He alone is not the answer in my opinion.

 

I agree, and would love to see another starter added via trade. But time is running out if they want to accomplish that before Spring Training starts. And it still leaves them without a surefire #1. Instead, it's a bunch of #3 guys with #2 potential on a good day. But who knows ... maybe they have some sort of analytic that sees Cobb, Anderson, Davies or Chacin as Ace material.

I don't think they need an ace. If you can load up on 2/3 types, I think you can compete with that. I'd be fine with Arietta and Cobb with Anderson/Davies/Chacin following that. I don't think any of that group would be called an ace.

 

Agreed on the desire to only acquire an Ace and a #2.5 addition isn't enough, because it is. Houston won the WS on the backs of Verlander addition for 5 Starts in September and the postseason(an Aug 31 trade)

 

Houston had 28 starts from a 5+ERA Fiers. 22 starts from a 4.22ERA Mcullers. 15 starts of 6.12 ERA from Musgrove. 6 starts of 6.52 ERA from Paulino 4 starts of 4.08ERA from Martes. All told that is 75 starts of #4 and exceedingly worse starter pitching. Cobb is a 3.5 career ERA pitcher...in the AL East(huge argument for those clamoring for Archer) So, why isn't a Cobb addition that's better than that #4 and worse stats of a WS winner, not enough?

I feel the same way if it became Lynn. I call for the two because the value(like Cain) is acceptable compared to potential of Arrieta/Archer and maybe even Darvish.

 

Big thing here is you need a September/Playoff pitcher over a full season pitcher. Any number of guys can get "hot" for a 1month period.

[82brewcrew82]

Yeah, I don't think we have quite the offense Houston does.

[DR28]

Im good with adding Cobb and calling it an offseason... Our team is greatly improved over the 86 win team of last year.

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Nelson - DL

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

Suter/Gallardo

 

This is a winning pitching staff!

[82brewcrew82]

Im good with adding Cobb and calling it an offseason... Our team is greatly improved over the 86 win team of last year.

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Nelson - DL

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

Suter/Gallardo

 

This is a winning pitching staff!

If Nelson were a sure thing I'd agree but he isn't. I just don't think that is enough pitching. Having said that, I think that is what we get and you will have every opportunity to rub my nose in it if I'm wrong.

[DR28]

Im good with adding Cobb and calling it an offseason... Our team is greatly improved over the 86 win team of last year.

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Nelson - DL

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

Suter/Gallardo

 

This is a winning pitching staff!

If Nelson were a sure thing I'd agree but he isn't. I just don't think that is enough pitching. Having said that, I think that is what we get and you will have every opportunity to rub my nose in it if I'm wrong.

 

Yea good point with Jimmy... We'll see what happens I guess.

 

If we keep Santana and move Braun to 1st, I'm confident rolling with our stacked offense and rotation full of #2's and #3's.

 

I would feel even better about our offense if we sign Walker...

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

I mean come on, that's a damn good offense!

[82brewcrew82]

Im good with adding Cobb and calling it an offseason... Our team is greatly improved over the 86 win team of last year.

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Nelson - DL

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

Suter/Gallardo

 

This is a winning pitching staff!

If Nelson were a sure thing I'd agree but he isn't. I just don't think that is enough pitching. Having said that, I think that is what we get and you will have every opportunity to rub my nose in it if I'm wrong.

 

Yea good point with Jimmy... We'll see what happens I guess.

 

If we keep Santana and move Braun to 1st, I'm confident rolling with our stacked offense and rotation full of #2's and #3's.

 

I would feel even better about our offense if we sign Walker...

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

I mean come on, that's a damn good offense!

Maybe. IF we had Walker. IF Pina doesn't regress. IF Braun stays healthy. Are those things more, or less likely to happen?

[82brewcrew82]

And no one is saying Braun is moving to first as a full time permanent thing. People are talking about this like that is the deal but all the Brewers have said is that they want to try and use him there occasionally.

[travisteck]

I have liked the idea of cobb for a while. He didn't pitch much in 16, and was ok in 17, but his second half numbers were a good bit better than the first.

 

Fangraphs did a couple articles about him last year and what he's doing. Obviously we're looking at high gb% guys and he fits the mold.

[Boomer5]

If you figure he is a 2-3 WAR pitcher going forward at $4-5M per WAR 3/45 is plenty.

[KeithStone53151]

If you figure he is a 2-3 WAR pitcher going forward at $5M per WAR 3/45 is plenty.

 

You shouldn't look at WAR/projections as the sole factor in determining a players value. That stat is useless as a stand-alone stat. There's way more to a pitcher than projecting WAR.

[Boomer5]

If you figure he is a 2-3 WAR pitcher going forward at $5M per WAR 3/45 is plenty.

 

You shouldn't look at WAR/projections as the sole factor in determining a players value. That stat is useless as a stand-alone stat. There's way more to a pitcher than projecting WAR.

 

I know that but it's a starting point.

 

I don't like Cobb because his career high is 179 innings and we have guys like that who can put up 5-6 innings per start with a 4+ FIP.

[brewcrewdue80]

And no one is saying Braun is moving to first as a full time permanent thing. People are talking about this like that is the deal but all the Brewers have said is that they want to try and use him there occasionally.

 

Maybe. IF we had Walker. IF Pina doesn't regress. IF Braun stays healthy. Are those things more, or less likely to happen?

 

I took the bold line from the above post and quoted it in to the next post to respond.

 

Braun wasn't healthy last year and the team won 86 games. If he stays Healthier than last year it only makes the team better.

I mean he started 99 games last season. So what is your "Stays healthy" Games started referring to? 60 games? 75 games? returning to the 135/140/135 games played in the previous 3 seasons? Because at this time with current OF/1b logjam people are suggesting Braun essentially get 120 games started and that being more than enough out of him.

 

 

Teams have bad players. Pina regressing isn't an alarming fear that will torpedo this team in to non playoff capability. Villar torpedoed last year, Braun wasn't healthy, Broxton was less exciting, the tail end of RPs torpedoed this team for half a season. Now some of that loss causing has been addressed either internally or FA signs. Somewhere it was listed we're a 77win team now. Wasn't it like 67/68 last year? As just an example. Pina regressing isn't costing the team 10+ games unless he literally has passed balls every time a runner is on 3rd and allows to score.

[DR28]

And no one is saying Braun is moving to first as a full time permanent thing. People are talking about this like that is the deal but all the Brewers have said is that they want to try and use him there occasionally.

 

Then Santana needs to be moved... Because Braun isnt losing playing time.

 

And Santana deserves to be a starter someone other than Milwaukee... His talent is wasted on the bench.

[Boomer5]

And no one is saying Braun is moving to first as a full time permanent thing. People are talking about this like that is the deal but all the Brewers have said is that they want to try and use him there occasionally.

 

Then Santana needs to be moved... Because Braun isnt losing playing time.

 

And Santana deserves to be a starter someone other than Milwaukee... His talent is wasted on the bench.

 

Santana will be traded for pitching help. No one plans to put a 24 year old 870 OPS guy on the bench. I assume they had a a trade ready to go but something must have happened.

[82brewcrew82]

And no one is saying Braun is moving to first as a full time permanent thing. People are talking about this like that is the deal but all the Brewers have said is that they want to try and use him there occasionally.

 

Maybe. IF we had Walker. IF Pina doesn't regress. IF Braun stays healthy. Are those things more, or less likely to happen?

 

I took the bold line from the above post and quoted it in to the next post to respond.

 

Braun wasn't healthy last year and the team won 86 games. If he stays Healthier than last year it only makes the team better.

I mean he started 99 games last season. So what is your "Stays healthy" Games started referring to? 60 games? 75 games? returning to the 135/140/135 games played in the previous 3 seasons? Because at this time with current OF/1b logjam people are suggesting Braun essentially get 120 games started and that being more than enough out of him.

 

 

Teams have bad players. Pina regressing isn't an alarming fear that will torpedo this team in to non playoff capability. Villar torpedoed last year, Braun wasn't healthy, Broxton was less exciting, the tail end of RPs torpedoed this team for half a season. Now some of that loss causing has been addressed either internally or FA signs. Somewhere it was listed we're a 77win team now. Wasn't it like 67/68 last year? As just an example. Pina regressing isn't costing the team 10+ games unless he literally has passed balls every time a runner is on 3rd and allows to score.

You completely missed the context of my comment.