Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[bill hAll Star]

Once we got Greinke, it was time to get Marcum as well. Had to go all in.

 

Marcum was acquired before the trade for Greinke...and the Brewers' downfall following those trades was not being able to draft well enough to replenish the prospect talent given up that offseason.

 

There are smart ways for the Brewers to acquire talent both via free agency and via trade - since not every prospect currently in the Brewers' system (not even close) will contribute in Milwaukee, when their value is highest they should be dealt to help the big league club. It's a GM's role to evaluate when the time is right to move on from those players and get maximum value in return. Hoarding prospects is great, but eventually you run out of room and roster space for them all - and the ones that don't force themselves into MLB with their performance dramatically lose value to the parent organization if they are held a bit too long.

 

If there are Matt LaPorta's currently in the system who could headline a deal for impact MLB talent instead of being held and exposed at the MLB level, I'm all for trading them when their value is highest. Obviously a GM needs to limit losing prospects that develop into solid MLB players, but part of improving depth of a small market team's farm is being able to draw from it during trades and having confidence in the front office's ability to identify amateur talent to replenish it.

 

It's hard to "draft well enough" to replenish trading away several prospects. The Cubs are going to feel the pain soon and they're a well-run organization. Sure, good organizations can do it, but it's not something that can be banked on.

 

I'm not saying I'd never trade prospects for a stud player. I was fine with 2008 and 2011.

 

That said, it's not called "hoarding prospects." It's called "organizational depth." You bring up LaPorta as a bust, but we also gave away Brantley, Odorizzi, Escobar, and Cain.

 

We had Gomez to play CF which was fine, but when Gomez got hurt we played:

Elian Herrera and Logan Schafer

 

We played Khris Davis (not at his hitting peak yet) and a regressing Aoki in the OF instead of having Brantley.

 

We signed Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza to fill the Odorizzi void.

 

We eventually got Segura (yes, for Greinke, that whole trade worked out fine down the road) and debates can be had about why he struggled for 2 years, but during what could have been Escobar's tenure we played Yuni Betancourt, Alex Gonzalez, and some bad seasons of Segura.

 

Lawrie ended up being nothing special, but we did blow $40 million on Aramis Ramirez, who was fine for a good deal of his tenure, but that money could've been allocated elsewhere. Lawrie's defense may have almost equaled that production.

 

We ended up starting Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay in an otherwise competitive season. Sure, none of those guys we traded away were 1B candidates, but it's possible that we don't have to pay for Lohse if we have Odorizzi and therefore we can overpay a 1B.

 

Point being: We had no organzational depth. A lot of the other guys we thought we had at the positions (Taylor Green, Gamel, Schafer, Heckathorn, Wily Peralta, etc.) that didn't pan out.

 

Again, I was fine with the 2008 and 2011 trades, and we got something back for Greinke down the line and turned into Anderson/Diaz, but the point is that organizational depth is heavily taken for granted here.

 

I understand that some people wouldn't have spent money on Garza and Lohse, but if we trade for Archer and maybe others, we'll start getting to the point where we have to spend to fill the holes and we will have to keep patching different holes with lesser and lesser free agents/prospects.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I agree with all of the examples you provided - but you more or less made my point. We didn't have organizational depth and were in a more precarious position to be trading most of the quality prospects we had at the time, because there was nothing behind those players squeezing them between upper minor league levels and MLB. There were years of failed drafts that caused quality depth to suffer in the minor leagues - and frankly the Brewer development system was probably just as big of a culprit as poor drafting.

 

I'm not saying we're at the point where if no trades are made that we'll lose 5-7 valuable prospects via rule V next offseason because our system is oozing quality depth, but knowing when we're approaching that point and getting the most value via trade is critical to sustaining the strides DS and company have made to the entire organization (minors + MLB club) in a short time. There's a separate thread in the minor league forum talking about the top 25 under 20 Brewer prospects to watch - while much of it is still projection, I'd argue 4-5 years ago we could barely come up with 25 prospects of any age in the Brewer system worth following.

[FVBrewerFan]

To me, a TOR starter is not something you acquire, it's something you develop. Either through your own farm system, or through acquiring advanced prospects or through acquring a #3-#4 with upside and getting lucky.

 

I agree, but I would add the option of renting a TOR starter. When the time is right, I would have no problem with them pulling the trigger on a Sabathia/Greinke type trade again. In fact, that's why it's so important to keep the farm system as strong as possible. That way you have the pieces to make a deal like that AND still have enough talent left in the system afterwards.

[KeithStone53151]

To me, a TOR starter is not something you acquire, it's something you develop. Either through your own farm system, or through acquiring advanced prospects or through acquring a #3-#4 with upside and getting lucky.

 

I agree, but I would add the option of renting a TOR starter. When the time is right, I would have no problem with them pulling the trigger on a Sabathia/Greinke type trade again. In fact, that's why it's so important to keep the farm system as strong as possible. That way you have the pieces to make a deal like that AND still have enough talent left in the system afterwards.

 

Right, there's a time and a place for it. I don't think we are quite ready to do something like that, plus we have a number of pitchers that warrant clearing rotation space for in the near future(Burnes/Woodruff/Hader...MAYBE Ortiz/Peralta...NOT Jungmann/Wilkerson/Suter/Guerra/etc). Based on the way this team is being built, I think the arm or two that puts us over the edge in the right year will more likely be a relief arm than a SP.

[Mudville9]

I just feel like it might be a year early to dip our toes in FA waters. I would much rather see what we have in the minors and give them another year to develop. If we are still in the midst of a playoff race in July, then I would have no problem selling off pieces to make a run, and at that point we would have a better idea who might/might not be future pieces and (hopefully) the pieces would increase their value during the year.

[Boomer5]

How much you giving Lucroy?

MAX: 2 years $20 million

 

Hopefully could get him for 2 years $14-$15ish as that would be better than his highest one year of $5.25 million and double his career earnings of ~$16 million.

 

They inexplicably kept 5 catchers on their 40 man. You don't do that if your plan is to sign one in FA.

[Boomer5]

There's a lot of risk with both guys. I just don't see Stearns making this kind of move right now for either pitcher. A trade for Cobb BEFORE last year seems more his style.

This is a good point.

 

Stearns' style to date would be to target controllable, pre-breakout players via trade. Signing a FA like Arietta, Darvish, Cobb, Lynn all fly in the face of what Stearns MO has been to date (granted the Brewers were in "rebuild" mode and not looking for FA). In regard to Archer, I would say that also isn't Stearns MO. Looking at a few trades in particular, Shaw, Villar and Anderson, I think Stearns is looking for SP in a similar vein. Archer has already "broken out" which doesn't make me think he is Stearns target at this point. All of this leads me to believe a trade target would be more a Sean Manaea-type if he is searching for SP via trade. Chacin seems to fit the Anderson profile, late 20s who could still bloom.

 

Who else is a Sean Manaea type player that the Brewers could be targeting via trade?

 

Yo, JC, and Logan are not young or up and coming. Clearly he is going after older guys to fill roles this year.

[bill hAll Star]

How much you giving Lucroy?

MAX: 2 years $20 million

 

Hopefully could get him for 2 years $14-$15ish as that would be better than his highest one year of $5.25 million and double his career earnings of ~$16 million.

 

They inexplicably kept 5 catchers on their 40 man. You don't do that if your plan is to sign one in FA.

 

There were reasons to protect all of them (2 of them acquired in trade with "potential" and Vogt was an undervalued scrap-heap pickup). If they signed Lucroy they can dump Vogt's non-guaranteed deal and probably cut Bandy since he's got 1 year left on the 40, max. Problem solved.

 

Susac probably could be on the chopping block as well, but as long as they've got some space they can try to turn an asset they traded for into something.

[JohnBriggs12]

Back on topic about Cobb, I just don't know what to expect from him. Does a rotation of Anderson-Cobb-Davies-Chacin-Woodruff/Suter/Nelson make you a playoff contender? If it doesn't, spending $15-$20 million on him doesn't make a ton of sense and the Brewers would be better served to continue to explore the trade market or continuing to develop their internal candidates. After going through all of the possible SP additions via trade or FA, I guess the real question becomes who moves the needle to the Brewers toward a playoff rotation?

 

The Cobb route wouldn't be a wise route to go. This decision would a Melvin standard operating procedure type move. Lohse, Suppan, Garza...we know how these deals go. Cobb in addition to being even more expensive than those 3 guys carries more injury risk. No thanks. By the time his ask got down to a range that would in my opinion work for the Brewers, he'd already be signed with the Cubs or someone else.

 

Cobb has a lot less mileage on him than Garza, Lohse and Suppan. Lohse was 34 when he was signed. Suppan had a career ERA well over 4 and was 32. Garza had shown signs of decline. Cobb has a career 3.50 ERA, all in the AL East.

 

Relative to total team revenue, paying Cobb say $17 million per year is not any more than they paid those guys. Plus, they'd still have all their young arms who'd be able to fill his spot if he does get hurt. There's no such thing as a no risk move.

[Warning Track Power]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/05/report-cubs-original-offer-to-alex-cobb-was-three-years-and-42-million/

 

According to this, the Cubs offer for Cobb was 3 years $42 million. If this is what it would take now, while not loving it, I think I would be comfortable with the Brewers offering this. I wouldn't be happy or sad either way if he accepted or rejected it.

[KeithStone53151]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/05/report-cubs-original-offer-to-alex-cobb-was-three-years-and-42-million/

 

According to this, the Cubs offer for Cobb was 3 years $42 million. If this is what it would take now, while not loving it, I think I would be comfortable with the Brewers offering this. I wouldn't be happy or sad either way if he accepted or rejected it.

 

If this is accurate, I could see getting involved at that price/years arena. That's roughly a similar offer to what they made to Chatwood though, and I think it's safe to say from a production/talent standpoint that Cobb > Chatwood. I have to believe Cobb is getting 4 year offers of at least $12-15 million per at his age/talent level though.

[mlloyd10]

i'd offer 3/49.9

 

No pick

[NOMAAM]

i'd offer 3/49.9

 

No pick

 

I'd do that an offer a vesting option based on inngs pitched. Something like 18 Million if he meets 400 inngs. If not reached becomes team option with buyout.

[JohnBriggs12]

Heyman is saying Cobb wants 4 years and a guaranteed $70 million. That's still an overpay but not far off from what it will take. I think Brewers should jump on 4 years $60 million myself. They could pay $14 million per year for 4 seasons with an option for a 5th or a $4 million buyout without stretching payroll so much that they couldn't still add a Walker or even Cain if they wanted to be bold and deal for another starter.

[JosephC]

Cobb is halfway to getting signed now that he's down from 5 years to 4. Now he just has to drop that annual value down from 17.5 million to 14.5 million and teams will be ready to move.

[Mr Southpaw]

2018 $16.0 million

2019 $14.5 million

2020 $13.0 million

2021 $13.0 million with $2.5 million team buyout option

 

4 year $56.5 million or 3 year $46.0 million

 

Anymore and I think I would pass.

[Eye Black]

Signing Alex Cobb would give the Brewers a 4th starting pitcher that finished in the top 20 in ground ball percentage among qualified starting pitchers (162+ IP) last season.

 

#9 Jimmy Nelson (50.3 GB%)

#10 Zach Davies (50.2 GB%)

#14 Jhoulys Chacin (49.1 GB%)

#19 Alex Cobb (47.8 GB%)

 

In Cobb’s 2014 season he tied with Felix Hernandez for the third highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers at 56.2%.

 

With added emphasis on launch angle and hitters focused on elevating the ball, as well as speculation of the ball composition effecting it’s travel distance, it seems possible the Brewers are focused on finding ground ball inducing starting pitchers.

 

We also know they were in mid-season trade discussions surrounding Sonny Gray, a pitcher that has finished well north of a 50% ground ball rate every year of his major league career, and finished 5th overall last season with a 52.8 GB%.

 

BTW, last year’s leader in GB% among qualified starting pitchers was Marcus Stroman (62.1 GB%) whom I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Brewers target via trade at some point if the stars align.

[TooLiveBrew]

Signing Alex Cobb would give the Brewers a 4th starting pitcher that finished in the top 20 in ground ball percentage among qualified starting pitchers (162+ IP) last season.

 

#9 Jimmy Nelson (50.3 GB%)

#10 Zach Davies (50.2 GB%)

#14 Jhoulys Chacin (49.1 GB%)

#19 Alex Cobb (47.8 GB%)

 

In Cobb’s 2014 season he tied with Felix Hernandez for the third highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers at 56.2%.

 

With added emphasis on launch angle and hitters focused on elevating the ball, as well as speculation of the ball composition effecting it’s travel distance, it seems possible the Brewers are focused on finding ground ball inducing starting pitchers.

 

We also know they were in mid-season trade discussions surrounding Sonny Gray, a pitcher that has finished well north of a 50% ground ball rate every year of his major league career, and finished 5th overall last season with a 52.8 GB%.

 

BTW, last year’s leader in GB% among qualified starting pitchers was Marcus Stroman (62.1 GB%) whom I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Brewers target via trade at some point if the stars align.

Good catch, Eye Black. I hadn't noticed this.

[KeithStone53151]

Signing Alex Cobb would give the Brewers a 4th starting pitcher that finished in the top 20 in ground ball percentage among qualified starting pitchers (162+ IP) last season.

 

#9 Jimmy Nelson (50.3 GB%)

#10 Zach Davies (50.2 GB%)

#14 Jhoulys Chacin (49.1 GB%)

#19 Alex Cobb (47.8 GB%)

 

In Cobb’s 2014 season he tied with Felix Hernandez for the third highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers at 56.2%.

 

With added emphasis on launch angle and hitters focused on elevating the ball, as well as speculation of the ball composition effecting it’s travel distance, it seems possible the Brewers are focused on finding ground ball inducing starting pitchers.

 

We also know they were in mid-season trade discussions surrounding Sonny Gray, a pitcher that has finished well north of a 50% ground ball rate every year of his major league career, and finished 5th overall last season with a 52.8 GB%.

 

BTW, last year’s leader in GB% among qualified starting pitchers was Marcus Stroman (62.1 GB%) whom I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Brewers target via trade at some point if the stars align.

Good catch, Eye Black. I hadn't noticed this.

 

Add to your point, Jeffress and Logan are heavy groundball pitchers as well on the relief side that were either brought in or extended. I still don't like the move for Cobb unless it gets close to the $40-50 million range, but there's definitely a ton of value in finding pitchers that keep hitters from elevating the ball.

[DR28]

2018 $16.0 million

2019 $14.5 million

2020 $13.0 million

2021 $13.0 million with $2.5 million team buyout option

 

4 year $56.5 million or 3 year $46.0 million

 

Anymore and I think I would pass.

 

I would love to add Cobb at that price.

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Then add someone like Oh or Hernandez as another set up.

 

Knebel

Hader

Oh/Hernandez

Logan

Barnes

Jeffress

Gallardo

 

I would love this staff!

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Subtract Gallardo or Jeffers and add Taylor Williams.

[Eye Black]

Nothing groundbreaking, but some frustration expressed from Alex Cobb on the slowly developing free agent market in this Tampa Bay Times Article. Brewers mentioned among the many teams in contact with Cobb.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Nothing groundbreaking, but some frustration expressed from Alex Cobb on the slowly developing free agent market in this Tampa Bay Times Article. Brewers mentioned among the many teams in contact with Cobb.

 

I imagine Cobb will sign with a new team relatively quickly after Darvish is off the market. I kinda group him in with Arrieta and Lynn, then I guess Cashner, Garcia and Vargas? Then Tillman and Hellickson. Pretty big drop-off after those first four. Makes the Brewers' deal with Chacin look even better.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, it's only speculation at this point, but Bob Nightengale is predicting the Brewers to sign Cobb. I'd be ok with that, as it isn't near the financial risk it would be to sign Arrieta or Darvish. Cobb also has a lot less milage on his arm.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/02/07/mlb-free-agency-unsigned-players-yu-darvish-jd-martinez-jake-arrieta-eric-hosmer/315148002/

[82brewcrew82]

Well, it's only speculation at this point, but Bob Nightengale is predicting the Brewers to sign Cobb. I'd be ok with that, as it isn't near the financial risk it would be to sign Arrieta or Darvish. Cobb also has a lot less milage on his arm.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/02/07/mlb-free-agency-unsigned-players-yu-darvish-jd-martinez-jake-arrieta-eric-hosmer/315148002/

Yeah, he may have some info that drives that but it's really just one of those prediction articles like the ones that come out when free agency starts. Having said that, I'm not sure I would like that move. I've seen a lot of informed back and forth as to his value/quality but I'm not sold either way yet.