Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[DR28]

Here's a link to MLBTRADERUMOS Free Agent write up on Cobb from back in January.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/free-agent-profile-alex-cobb.html

 

Steve Adams in his chat today...

 

"Cobb isn't a lock for anything. He's never made 30 starts in a season, never thrown 180 innings, and had the third-lowest swinging-strike rate of any starter in baseball last season."

 

I think Brewer fans are overrating Cobb just so they can sell themselves on him being a likely Brewers Free Agent signing.

 

Unless the Brewers can get him for 4 years/$48M or less, I think they should set their sites on a better Starting Pitcher.

 

Either Jake Arrietta or making a trade for one.

 

He missed by 2/3 of an inning last year.

[wallus]

Here's a link to MLBTRADERUMOS Free Agent write up on Cobb from back in January.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/free-agent-profile-alex-cobb.html

 

Steve Adams in his chat today...

 

"Cobb isn't a lock for anything. He's never made 30 starts in a season, never thrown 180 innings, and had the third-lowest swinging-strike rate of any starter in baseball last season."

 

I think Brewer fans are overrating Cobb just so they can sell themselves on him being a likely Brewers Free Agent signing.

 

Unless the Brewers can get him for 4 years/$48M or less, I think they should set their sites on a better Starting Pitcher.

 

Either Jake Arrietta or making a trade for one.

 

You do realize that he was top 40 in innings pitched last season? He would have pitched the second most innings for us last season.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Wasn't my quote but it can't be overlooked that he's been injury prone during his short career.

 

His alarmingly bad swinging-strike rate is even more of a concern to me, personally.

 

And I realize that a lot of people will drink the kool-aid that he didn't use his best pitch last year, but even so, he does not have the arsenal, age or upside of a Top of the Rotation starter.

 

Don't get me wrong, he's a fine mid-rotation starter if that is all the Brewers are looking for.

 

I feel that they need more than that if they are serious about being contenders anytime soon.

 

If our plan is too sign Cobb at a bargin rate and then trade for an Archer or a Stroman sometime this year, then I can get on board with that plan.

 

Just think Cobb could disappoint and a 4 year contract will carry plenty of risk with his injury history.

[Madhawk23]

Wasn't my quote but it can't be overlooked that he's been injury prone during his short career.

 

His alarmingly bad swinging-strike rate is even more of a concern to me, personally.

 

And I realize that a lot of people will drink the kool-aid that he didn't use his best pitch last year, but even so, he does not have the arsenal, age or upside of a Top of the Rotation starter.

 

Don't get me wrong, he's a fine mid-rotation starter if that is all the Brewers are looking for.

 

I feel that they need more than that if they are serious about being contenders anytime soon.

 

The good news is that I think we have a smart front office that is very analytically based to make sound decisions on choosing the right FA pitcher that has the best chance to succeed in a Brewers uniform over the next 4-5 years. If that's Cobb, then I'll get behind the decision. If it's Arrieta or Lynn, I'll do the same with those guys. Or if it's a trade, then we'll know that they weren't really that high on any of the FA's left on the market, or at least not at the prices that they were commanding.

 

In David Stearns we trust!

[TJseven7]

Yeah his swinging strike rate was real bad... last year.

 

That kool aid pitch he was missing well...

Outside zone contact up 7%

Inside zone contact up 3%

Contact as a whole up 7%

Swinging strike was down 3.3%

 

As for arsenal... FB was a positive (sinker driven) curve was positive, change for the first time in his career wasn't and its typically a huge positive.

 

Its all due to the thing... a cartoon esque movement pitch that he didn't have back yet.

[brewmann04]

HH puts it at 80 Cobb signs Monday

[FVBrewerFan]

Cobb stopping throwing his best pitch in the split/change really worries me but he's the FA target I'd go get right now. I don't trust Arrieta to be all that great for what he wants and I'd rather take Cobb for maybe 1 less year and certainly less money and hope he can rediscover his best pitch another year removed from TJ.

 

It wasn't working post TJ and he tried to tinker with it but couldn't get it right inseason. Instead of screwing his results he battled with sinkers and curves. He's going to get it back. With Johnson I'd nearly guarantee it.

 

Is there any evidence he got it back at the end of the season? Just asking, because it seems that pitch makes a huge difference for him.

[jjfanec]

Here's a link to MLBTRADERUMOS Free Agent write up on Cobb from back in January.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/free-agent-profile-alex-cobb.html

 

Steve Adams in his chat today...

 

"Cobb isn't a lock for anything. He's never made 30 starts in a season, never thrown 180 innings, and had the third-lowest swinging-strike rate of any starter in baseball last season."

 

I think Brewer fans are overrating Cobb just so they can sell themselves on him being a likely Brewers Free Agent signing.

 

Unless the Brewers can get him for 4 years/$48M or less, I think they should set their sites on a better Starting Pitcher.

 

Either Jake Arrietta or making a trade for one.

 

If the Brewers can get Cobb at that price they just made one of the best signings of the off season. No way Cobb goes for that low. I sure hope he does because even with his low swing and miss rate cobb produces. Worst era in season is 4 and his whip is almost always around 1.25 or lower. He doesn't have a lot of innings on his arm and only one injury is anything to worry about being an issue. the others were about as fluke as can be. He isn't an ace. He won't be paid like one. But if he produces like a 2 or 3 which he has all his career then the Brewers would be getting an amazing deal

[pacopete4]

If it’s overall 4 for $60 I think I’m out on Cobb.

[FVBrewerFan]

If we sign Cobb drop the hammer and get another big pitcher selling high on Burnes and/or Santana or Phillips/Harrison. No need to go waist high in the cold water and stop, go all the way.

 

Exactly. No half measures.

 

It still wouldn't be going "all the way" so what's the point? Let's say you get Cobb AND Arrieta. That's still not getting close to matching the 1/2 at the top of some of the other contenders rotations. Why even try to play that game?

 

If they sign Cobb, now they have a legit rotation. In fact, a legit roster across the board. If August comes around and they're looking strong, you can go get a TOR guy then.

 

They would already be tied long term to Anderson, Chacon, and Cobb with a decision to be made on Nelson/Davies coming up at some point. I just wouldn't want to tie up another big chunk of money for 4-5 years in another 2/3 type starter. We have those and more on the way in the system.

[bill hAll Star]

If it’s overall 4 for $60 I think I’m out on Cobb.

 

I think whatever the number is, as long as it isn't astronomical, is acceptable.

 

If one is "OK with 4/$45 but not OK with 4/$60" then you might be in Attanasio's ownership group. I'm not saying to just light money on fire just for the sake of it, but I think if Attanasio is willing to bring in Cobb at any contract within reason of what we posted above, that means that they are willing to do that with maybe space for filler players in the next few years.

 

Point being, I don't think much changes if Cobb gets $10-15 million more than we think other than you may see a league minimum utility scrub instead of Hernan Perez the next few years.

 

Cobb will nearly cap us out regardless and if we're going to make the move, I trust Mark is still willing to pay for an extra vet here or there, but whether it's $45 million over 4 or $60 million over 4, our outlook over the next 4 years is about the same.

[TJseven7]

Cobb stopping throwing his best pitch in the split/change really worries me but he's the FA target I'd go get right now. I don't trust Arrieta to be all that great for what he wants and I'd rather take Cobb for maybe 1 less year and certainly less money and hope he can rediscover his best pitch another year removed from TJ.

 

It wasn't working post TJ and he tried to tinker with it but couldn't get it right inseason. Instead of screwing his results he battled with sinkers and curves. He's going to get it back. With Johnson I'd nearly guarantee it.

 

Is there any evidence he got it back at the end of the season? Just asking, because it seems that pitch makes a huge difference for him.

 

None that I can find. There is a fangraphs article on it where he talks about trying a few things and not getting it quite right. It's obviously a risk. I feel better about that risk at the assumed price then arrieta getting his fb back long term at his price.

 

If he had it, his era drops quite a bit. 2.8 to 3.1 last year and he's asking 100/5 and getting it. Trust him as a pitcher (fangraphs article aids that) trust johnson to find it.

 

There's something to be said for a pitcher who goes from 4 pitches to his 3 worst pitches who has his era explode to a measley 3.66. I believe theres more to pitchimg than stuff and it's not hard to believe Cobb excels there.

[Madhawk23]

Well, the good news is - we should know the legitimacy of HH19 and his source by Monday it seems. I want to believe the guy...I really do. But, I do have some serious doubts about why his source would continue to give him all of this information that he then takes directly to the message boards and twitter. Doesn't quite add up in my head. But again - I hope he's legit, and we get some Cobb news by Monday.

[IntentionalHBP]

HH is David Stearns in disguise.

[MNBrew]

Well, the good news is - we should know the legitimacy of HH19 and his source by Monday it seems. I want to believe the guy...I really do. But, I do have some serious doubts about why his source would continue to give him all of this information that he then takes directly to the message boards and twitter. Doesn't quite add up in my head. But again - I hope he's legit, and we get some Cobb news by Monday.

Well, yes and no (re: the bolded text). If Cobb signs in MIL on/by Monday, then obviously he was right. If Cobb's still unsigned as of Tuesday, it doesn't prove he's not credible because circumstances well could change between now and then. . . . The scoops he shared on Yelich as that situation progressed were basically that it would be a done deal and just a matter of when, which is essentially what he's saying re: Cobb. . . . .In the end, I like the scoops he gets and is willing to share. Whether ultimately right or not, his info makes reading these threads and much more fun for me than normal.

 

Anyway, I'm not 100% convinced that Cobb would be everything we hope he'd be -- regaining old form, finding the "thing" pitch, improved results due to moving to the NL & out of the AL East -- but I'm nonetheless kind of excited that it might happen.

 

And with any of the remaining "significant" unsigned FAs, the longer we go into spring training, we just have to be getting closer to the point of something happening, which is intriguing, too.

[jonescm128]

Well, the good news is - we should know the legitimacy of HH19 and his source by Monday it seems. I want to believe the guy...I really do. But, I do have some serious doubts about why his source would continue to give him all of this information that he then takes directly to the message boards and twitter. Doesn't quite add up in my head. But again - I hope he's legit, and we get some Cobb news by Monday.

 

I have never believed a word this guy says. The stuff he "predicts" is pretty logical and his other stuff is just pure speculation. I could say anything and it would be believable because Stearns has already said he casts a wide net.

 

He broke Lucroy? Cleveland was so desperate for a catcher last year anyone could have called that. Their catchers hit a combined .168 up until the trade.

 

He broke Yelich? They were publicly shedding payroll and it was reported that Milwaukee was talking to Miami. The only logical option was Yelich.

 

I can also guarantee you that the only people that are aware of the level of detail he is supposedly providing are Stearns and Matt Arnold. An executive assistant to Stearns may know who they are calling but would have no idea what is being said.

 

The only thing this guy is providing is entertainment so we can dream and speculate about possible trades and signings, which is fine, especially for the "Transaction Rumors/Proposals" board on here but the fact that so many people are taking this persons word as gospel is ridiculous.

 

I will also give an 80% chance that Cobb does not sign with the Brewers because I do not think the Brewers view him as much better than Woodruff, Guerra, and possibly Burnes midway through the season and they definitely do not want to lose another draft pick. The only way I see him signing is a 2 year deal for around 40 million so they can stay under the $50 million threshold in order to retain their draft pick.

 

Go Brewers!

[DR28]

Because we were talking doesnt mean it was gonna get done.

 

We talked with A's, Rays, Royals, Twins... Nothing happened.

[DR28]

What you think about Cobb, doesnt mean that's what they're thinking.

[82brewcrew82]

What you think about a tweet doesn't make it true.

[bylo tesi me]

Cobb seems like the compromise between Arrieta and Lynn. They need 1 more starter, so it's reasonable they will sign one of the three. Cobb seems like the most likely.

 

I have no idea who HH is. At first I assumed he was probably a knowledgeable Cubs or Cardinals fan here to mess with people. I personally don't concern myself this much with rumors. I enjoy the speculation, but in the end I root for the uniform, and whoever wears it at game time. I trust Stearns will figure that out.

[Boomer5]

Here's a link to MLBTRADERUMOS Free Agent write up on Cobb from back in January.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/free-agent-profile-alex-cobb.html

 

Steve Adams in his chat today...

 

"Cobb isn't a lock for anything. He's never made 30 starts in a season, never thrown 180 innings, and had the third-lowest swinging-strike rate of any starter in baseball last season."

 

I think Brewer fans are overrating Cobb just so they can sell themselves on him being a likely Brewers Free Agent signing.

 

Unless the Brewers can get him for 4 years/$48M or less, I think they should set their sites on a better Starting Pitcher.

 

Either Jake Arrietta or making a trade for one.

 

To say the least. Fans will talk themselves into thinking we got an ace because Stearns gave him a big deal when the reality is he hasn't been good since 2014.

 

No one would sign this guy to a big money long term deal unless you were super desperate.

[jjfanec]

Here's a link to MLBTRADERUMOS Free Agent write up on Cobb from back in January.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/free-agent-profile-alex-cobb.html

 

Steve Adams in his chat today...

 

"Cobb isn't a lock for anything. He's never made 30 starts in a season, never thrown 180 innings, and had the third-lowest swinging-strike rate of any starter in baseball last season."

 

I think Brewer fans are overrating Cobb just so they can sell themselves on him being a likely Brewers Free Agent signing.

 

Unless the Brewers can get him for 4 years/$48M or less, I think they should set their sites on a better Starting Pitcher.

 

Either Jake Arrietta or making a trade for one.

 

To say the least. Fans will talk themselves into thinking we got an ace because Stearns gave him a big deal when the reality is he hasn't been good since 2014.

 

No one would sign this guy to a big money long term deal unless you were super desperate.

 

I know ERA isn't the end all be all but over almost 180 innings Cobb put up a 3.66 era. To say that isn't good is ridiculous. In his only year he has pitched since 2014 he pitched well. I know his peripherals aren't sexy but he somehow gets guys to swing at pitches outside the zone and gets outs. No one is saying he is an ace. People are saying he is a 2 or at worst a 3 because when health that is what he has been

[HighHeat19]

Well, the good news is - we should know the legitimacy of HH19 and his source by Monday it seems. I want to believe the guy...I really do. But, I do have some serious doubts about why his source would continue to give him all of this information that he then takes directly to the message boards and twitter. Doesn't quite add up in my head. But again - I hope he's legit, and we get some Cobb news by Monday.

 

I have never believed a word this guy says. The stuff he "predicts" is pretty logical and his other stuff is just pure speculation. I could say anything and it would be believable because Stearns has already said he casts a wide net.

 

He broke Lucroy? Cleveland was so desperate for a catcher last year anyone could have called that. Their catchers hit a combined .168 up until the trade.

 

He broke Yelich? They were publicly shedding payroll and it was reported that Milwaukee was talking to Miami. The only logical option was Yelich.

 

I can also guarantee you that the only people that are aware of the level of detail he is supposedly providing are Stearns and Matt Arnold. An executive assistant to Stearns may know who they are calling but would have no idea what is being said.

 

The only thing this guy is providing is entertainment so we can dream and speculate about possible trades and signings, which is fine, especially for the "Transaction Rumors/Proposals" board on here but the fact that so many people are taking this persons word as gospel is ridiculous.

 

I will also give an 80% chance that Cobb does not sign with the Brewers because I do not think the Brewers view him as much better than Woodruff, Guerra, and possibly Burnes midway through the season and they definitely do not want to lose another draft pick. The only way I see him signing is a 2 year deal for around 40 million so they can stay under the $50 million threshold in order to retain their draft pick.

 

Go Brewers!

 

You forgot post #162 under the Darvish transaction Rumors.

[TJseven7]

Here's a link to MLBTRADERUMOS Free Agent write up on Cobb from back in January.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/free-agent-profile-alex-cobb.html

 

Steve Adams in his chat today...

 

"Cobb isn't a lock for anything. He's never made 30 starts in a season, never thrown 180 innings, and had the third-lowest swinging-strike rate of any starter in baseball last season."

 

I think Brewer fans are overrating Cobb just so they can sell themselves on him being a likely Brewers Free Agent signing.

 

Unless the Brewers can get him for 4 years/$48M or less, I think they should set their sites on a better Starting Pitcher.

 

Either Jake Arrietta or making a trade for one.

 

To say the least. Fans will talk themselves into thinking we got an ace because Stearns gave him a big deal when the reality is he hasn't been good since 2014.

 

No one would sign this guy to a big money long term deal unless you were super desperate.

 

Yeah he missed nearly 2 years. He had 2 years where he was operating in the 2.8 3.0 range and since he's been back he's been much closer to the 3.7 range. Then he signed a 6 year 126 million dollar deal. Wonder if the cubs are super desperate. Because if you haven't noticed I'm talking about Darvish.

 

Cobb was better era wise than Darvish. (2.7 2.8 to 2.8 3.0) Missed 2 years like Davrish and in his time since tj has put up an equal era to Darvish. (3.7) Darvish 186.2 ip 31 starts. Cobb 179.1 ip in 29 starts (turf toe and shut down 1 game early) in their first full year back.

 

Yet cobb is 1 year younger and 3-6mil cheaper aav and probably looking 4 years vs 6.

 

It's very hard for a small market team to compete in FA with the big markets. You dont get many chances to add starting top 2 impactful arm sub 100 million dollars. You have to buy decline years to get the good ones and screw the cap down the road. You take a shot on a Cobb with this type of upside because if you don't you have to eat decline years or trade your farm for one... even then Darvish flat said no to us. We were bid fodder. Tb is trying to rake us over for Archer.

 

So desperate? I don't know about that. I think he's the under the radar buy low best gamble in the entire market. Thats not due to some we can't get Darvish small market sob song. That's, I've dug deep into numbers and this guy looks like the value add. Who only needs a deal to 33 not 36. Who doesn't cost over 20 aav. Split change or not.

 

I hope hh is right... I'm prepared to eat crow if I'm wrong. Hope you are hungry!