Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[RollieTime]

If Cobb signs with the Brewers, do you think the Brewers would make a trade for Archer?

 

Archer

Cobb

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

 

Nelson replaces Chacin when he returns or replaces a starter if they are injured. The entire rotation will be locked up for 3 years or more as well outside of Chacin.

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Pina

Arcia

Villar

P

 

That team could be a World Series contender. A man can dream, but this dream could become reality if Stearns wants to pull the trigger. The farm would take a major hit, but it would also have multiple years to be replenished with the rotation and every position player being locked up for at least 3 years as well. WOW!

[nate82]

Atlanta already has Julio Teheran, Brandon McCarthy, Mike Foltynewicz penciled in for their rotation. Sean Newcomb, Max Fried, and Lucas Sims were all first round picks looking to crack their rotation with Luiz Gohara likely knocking on the door. Now add in Scott Kazmir and his 17.6 million dollar contract, and I don't see the need for a starter in Atlanta, especially one that will more likely than not be paid in the 18-20 million dollar per year range Finally, Braves are already at 116 million, to add another 18 to 20 million would push their payroll to an all time high for a team that is likely an also ran in 2018.

 

McCarthy and Kazmir are both very high injury concerns. It is highly likely that neither Kazmir or McCarthy finish the year without going on the DL. It is also likely that either McCarthy or Kazmir are on the 60-day DL when the season ends.

 

Cobb for Atlanta would be a long term player versus Kazmir and McCarthy who can be free agents after this season so I doubt either will be in the Braves rotation long term. I wouldn't be surprised if one of McCarthy or Kazmir will be released before the season even starts. The Braves would have a pretty good rotation in 2019 with Cobb, Teheran, Gohara, Newcomb, take your pick of all of the young starting pitching prospects the Braves have. Trading one of the pitching prospects for another bat is probably what Atlanta is going to do. I think they are going to go after Renfroe over Santana though both are very similar players. Both Renfroe and Santana strike out a lot and both are liabilities in the OF. Not sure on Renfroe but from what I have read he isn't all that great defensively in the OF.

[pacopete4]

Only like 15 pitchers a season make it to 200 innings pitched.

[sveumrules]

Cobb had 179.1 innings last year, a career high. That ranked 37th in MLB.

 

Of the 36 pitchers with more innings pitched, 20 had a lower FIP & 13 had a better ERA.

 

If Cobb is able to approximate those numbers for the next 2-3 years he'll be fine on a 4 year deal.

 

If he can somehow regain his 2013-14 form as he gets farther away from surgery he'd be an absolute steal on a 4 year deal.

[Brew Crew Buster]

$18M for one year isn't necessarily better than $15 each for four years. Security matters. Baseball contracts are guaranteed. $18M for one year doesn't mean he will make $60M over the 4 years.

 

It gets even better if he is able to sign for $70M for five years with a opt out after 3. That is security plus opportunity. The Brewers could even set it up at 15M per for three and then $12.5 for the last two. Insurance against slipping production plus opportunity for 3 good years to turn into a new 3 or 4 year deal when he is 33.

[KeithStone53151]

Regardless of his spot in a rotation, the point is he is a guy who was last a good pitcher in 2014. His most recent year had a 4.16 FIP. He is not a workhorse.

 

In other words what is is a nice 30 year old pitcher with a history of injuries. What he isn't is a 5 year big money pitcher.

 

You are clearly looking at this through a very specific lens. If Cobb came back from surgery and was in 2014 form, he'd be out of our price range. Probably looking at a Darvish contract. As others have noted, he was a decent pitcher in his first year back from TJ with his best pitch not working properly. Also moving from loaded AL East division, hitter friendly parks, with DH to NL central no DH.

[Boomer5]

Regardless of his spot in a rotation, the point is he is a guy who was last a good pitcher in 2014. His most recent year had a 4.16 FIP. He is not a workhorse.

 

In other words what is is a nice 30 year old pitcher with a history of injuries. What he isn't is a 5 year big money pitcher.

 

You are clearly looking at this through a very specific lens. If Cobb came back from surgery and was in 2014 form, he'd be out of our price range. Probably looking at a Darvish contract. As others have noted, he was a decent pitcher in his first year back from TJ with his best pitch not working properly. Also moving from loaded AL East division, hitter friendly parks, with DH to NL central no DH.

 

I'm not saying you don't sign him, you just dont sign him like it's the 2014 version because that is unrealistic for many reasons.

[brewmann04]

I don't think Cobb and Archer are both coming.

[TJseven7]

Andersons last 203 ip was a 2.61 era 37 starts 5.48 ip

Ace era... not ace innings (175) but thats a 1

 

Nelson last 143.2 ip was 3.20 era 23 starts 6.25 ip

Not quite ace era... 200 ip pace so thats a 1

 

Davies starts in each of the last 2 have been brutal.

First 3 starts 2016 4 starts 2017

33 ip 31 er 7 starts for a 8.45 era and 4.7 ip per start

Then

321.2 ip 133 era 54 starts for a 3.72 era and nearly 6ip per start.

Even at 3.93 and 185 ip hes a high ip 45-60 level 2.

 

These 3 absolutely carried the team last year.

 

Cobb even just last year was a 6.18 ip per start. 3.66 era. That beats good Davies who was a 2 despite the rough starts. That is better ip per start than everyone but nelson.

 

I guess I don't see the disconnect where people dont see anderson nelson had long stretches of tor performance last year and davies had a year of top 60 pitching. Do people over estimate the rest of the league because the only issue our staff had was at 4 and 5. Adding cobb makes 4 top 60 capable guys. Its not kershaw Scherzer stuff but that's not getting matched by many teams.

[Boomer5]

Andersons last 203 ip was a 2.61 era 37 starts 5.48 ip

Ace era... not ace innings (175) but thats a 1

 

Nelson last 143.2 ip was 3.20 era 23 starts 6.25 ip

Not quite ace era... 200 ip pace so thats a 1

 

Davies starts in each of the last 2 have been brutal.

First 3 starts 2016 4 starts 2017

33 ip 31 er 7 starts for a 8.45 era and 4.7 ip per start

Then

321.2 ip 133 era 54 starts for a 3.72 era and nearly 6ip per start.

Even at 3.93 and 185 ip hes a high ip 45-60 level 2.

 

These 3 absolutely carried the team last year.

 

Cobb even just last year was a 6.18 ip per start. 3.66 era. That beats good Davies who was a 2 despite the rough starts. That is better ip per start than everyone but nelson.

 

I guess I don't see the disconnect where people dont see anderson nelson had long stretches of tor performance last year and davies had a year of top 60 pitching. Do people over estimate the rest of the league because the only issue our staff had was at 4 and 5. Adding cobb makes 4 top 2 capable guys. Its not kershaw Scherzer stuff but that's not getting matched by many teams.

 

I like Anderson and Davies a lot. Remember the Brewers didn't fall about down the stretch because of their starting pitching, they did because of their offense.

 

Nelson who I have always liked, is a serious question mark coming back from that specific injury though. That's something they need to hedge and he was truly our ace. Cobb is more likely to be the 2017 version than the 2014 version based on age alone so you can't count on him to replace 2017 Nelson.

 

That's why it will be Cobb who is just a guy and someone else who is more closely going to replace Nelson's innings last year.

[reillymcshane]

Cobb just fits so well. Not as high cost with very good upside if he regains his breaking stuff. Allows us to keep Santana and a very good lineup. It is all an if but if Nelson comes back like last year a rotation of Anderson, Cobb, Nelson, Davies and Chacin is very solid. No weak link and you have Woodward there if anyone slips up

 

ummmm

Dude misspelled something. Or perhaps autocorrect got him. I doubt anyone couldn't figure out what he meant.

[jjfanec]

Cobb just fits so well. Not as high cost with very good upside if he regains his breaking stuff. Allows us to keep Santana and a very good lineup. It is all an if but if Nelson comes back like last year a rotation of Anderson, Cobb, Nelson, Davies and Chacin is very solid. No weak link and you have Woodward there if anyone slips up

 

ummmm

 

I knew something looked wrong there

[TJseven7]

"Cobb is more likely to be the 2017 version than the 2014 version based on age alone"

 

That's simply untrue. You need to look at how players tend to rehab. Tj shows the biggest jump after the 2nd healthy offseason. Knees in football often take til the 2nd healthy season to get back full explosion. Its very common that the first season back is not their new ceiling but instead new floor.

 

How you can pretend this guy can only go down or stay the same when he navigated last year without his best offering I simply can't understand. Illogical pessimist? Axe to grind? I can't make sense of it.

 

 

As for replacing Nelson... I'd say he's has the best chance of any pitcher on our staff of pitching 200 ip. Going forward I'd handicap it at a 50/50 toss up with nelson in 2019.

 

He just threw 6.18 per start... missed time and had starts decline in length in his first full year back. 32 starts... on pace for 197. Same as 2013. 2014 he was on pace to get to 205.

 

He missed 3 starts last year. Turf toe for 2. 1 shut down early.

Starts around turf toe issues 8 for 33.1 ip. 4.16 ip.

Starts before turf toe 21 for 146 ip... 6.95 ip per.

 

Soooo..... through 21 starts was on pace for 222 ip. 3.46 era. Through 6ip... 3.25 era. They probably overworked him.

 

There aren't many deeper than surface numbers that say no on this guy. Turned down 42/3... lets get 60/4 done stearns. We need another horse.

[superfly]

If we sign Cobb drop the hammer and get another big pitcher selling high on Burnes and/or Santana or Phillips/Harrison. No need to go waist high in the cold water and stop, go all the way.

[Boomer5]

If we sign Cobb drop the hammer and get another big pitcher selling high on Burnes and/or Santana or Phillips/Harrison. No need to go waist high in the cold water and stop, go all the way.

 

Exactly. No half measures.

[brewmann04]

I always thought we were going to get two starters but I have changed to think we add just one and the wait to the trade deadline

[torts]

4.20 ERA sounds like a Brewers Free Agent SP signing, so its as good as done in my book!

 

I love reading anything from Torts! Greatest one liners ever. Will have to watch a game with the man.

 

I cant tell if you're serious or not, sarcasm is normally in blue, so i'll take this as a compliment!

[brewcrewdue80]

Cobb is a good addition when healthy and on the mound. There is a strong possibility he wont earn the contract handed out to him. You pay a guy for 175innings 4 years and he averages 145 Id say. So I hope his contract isnt in the 18+ a year range. Im guessing 4/62 to outbid the basic 4/60 calls.

[TJseven7]

Cobb is a good addition when healthy and on the mound. There is a strong possibility he wont earn the contract handed out to him. You pay a guy for 175innings 4 years and he averages 145 Id say. So I hope his contract isnt in the 18+ a year range. Im guessing 4/62 to outbid the basic 4/60 calls.

 

What makes you think 145? He just threw 180... missed 3 starts... 2 because he was battling turf toe. 1 because the year was over. Prior to turf toe he was on pace for 222ip through 21 starts (if he pitched 32 starts)

 

2015 missed 5 starts with an oblique. 32 starts would have put him at 197ip

2014 missed 10 starts concussion rehab blister. 32 starts would have put him at 208ip.

 

He's had TJ and 1 random strain 1 toe issue and 1 freak event. He's returned quickly from everything but TJ.

 

Basically you think he misses at least 8 starts a year? Do you think he kicked a black cat crossing his path into a mirror?

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Cobb stopping throwing his best pitch in the split/change really worries me but he's the FA target I'd go get right now. I don't trust Arrieta to be all that great for what he wants and I'd rather take Cobb for maybe 1 less year and certainly less money and hope he can rediscover his best pitch another year removed from TJ.

[TJseven7]

Cobb stopping throwing his best pitch in the split/change really worries me but he's the FA target I'd go get right now. I don't trust Arrieta to be all that great for what he wants and I'd rather take Cobb for maybe 1 less year and certainly less money and hope he can rediscover his best pitch another year removed from TJ.

 

It wasn't working post TJ and he tried to tinker with it but couldn't get it right inseason. Instead of screwing his results he battled with sinkers and curves. He's going to get it back. With Johnson I'd nearly guarantee it.

[brewcrewdue80]

Cobb is a good addition when healthy and on the mound. There is a strong possibility he wont earn the contract handed out to him. You pay a guy for 175innings 4 years and he averages 145 Id say. So I hope his contract isnt in the 18+ a year range. Im guessing 4/62 to outbid the basic 4/60 calls.

 

What makes you think 145? He just threw 180... missed 3 starts... 2 because he was battling turf toe. 1 because the year was over. Prior to turf toe he was on pace for 222ip through 21 starts (if he pitched 32 starts)

 

2015 missed 5 starts with an oblique. 32 starts would have put him at 197ip

2014 missed 10 starts concussion rehab blister. 32 starts would have put him at 208ip.

 

A single repeat of TJ would make him miss that. On pace for isnt the same as actually having the results. There was no chance he would pitch 200innings last season. His arm hasnt endured that workload. Reaching near 180 last year is impressive. Every out pitched above 179.2 is new territory for him. This as he's 30years old, no longer in his 20s. You have the 10day DL now which I will put money on he spends at least one time on that this season with the old "dead arm" Thats the biggest problem with Cobb or Duffy is their workload limitations. Until theyve eclipsed 200IP, the post season games started will be extending that new territory every out. Another Marcum gas can experience.

So he'll have to miss some starts this season if your planning Playoff Starts for him. I dont think he will be 145IP avg the next 4yrs, its just his history with Age, has to be considered. If he had 1 200IP season in his history he'd be worth 20mil on this FA market. To expect a guy to avg as many innings the next 4years as he's most pitched in 1 season is foolish for his age. He's going to bat more often if he comes to us, that adds to injury potential.

 

Im for a Cobb signing, he produces when hes on the mound. I'm just hedging on the expectations that he'd produce to the contract he signs.

 

He's had TJ and 1 random strain 1 toe issue and 1 freak event. He's returned quickly from everything but TJ.

 

Basically you think he misses at least 8 starts a year? Do you think he kicked a black cat crossing his path into a mirror?

[TJseven7]

He's 30 with low wear and tear. He's also a junk pitcher not a fb guy. That's not THAT old.

 

He's basically the youngest safest arm of the "big 4."

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the best approach for this roster as currently constructed is to sign one of the remaining difference making starters to improve the rotation, sort out the last few spots in the bullpen/AAA rotation depth with the Williams/Gallardo/Suter/Woodruff/Houser/Peralta options (regardless the pen will be many times better than it was opening day last year), allow spring training to figure out where Broxton gets flipped to based on other teams' injuries/needs, and go into opening day with hopefully a healthy group of position players that make a much more formidable offense than last year's Brewers.

 

Come trade deadline, if they're off to a solid start, re-evaluate how to improve the roster once you've had more time to see where Nelson is at, what Villar you're getting at 2B, etc. Lots can happen between now and the trade deadline - if this year's Brewer team falls on its face, they actually have quite a few tradeable assets other teams may be willing to deal legit prospects for. If they are in the hunt, they have plenty of ammo/depth to use for acquiring impact MLB talent at the deadline - and there will likely be more teams looking to sell than looking to buy considering the current MLB landscape, with a handful of superteams/handful of obvious rebuilds/a bunch of teams caught in the middle who aren't going to publicly say they're not interested in contending in 2018 before the season even starts. Teams like Toronto, SF, Texas, Detroit, Seattle, Baltimore, KC, NY Mets, Pitt are all going to be sellers on top of other obvious candidates.

 

I'm on board with either Cobb or Arrieta at this point, as both would be this team's best starter for at least the 1st half of the contract they'd sign. Lynn I'm not sold on. As long as whatever pitcher they get signs to a tradeable contract for a veteran starter, it doesn't really cripple the Brewers' payroll or flexibility should they need an abrupt change of course 2-3 seasons from now...after all, we're not talking about paying $10-15 Mil per to fill out the rotation with a #4-5 starter, we're in the $15-$20 Mil per range (give or take) to bring in someone who'd probably get penciled in for opening day if they sign relatively soon.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Here's a link to MLBTRADERUMOS Free Agent write up on Cobb from back in January.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/free-agent-profile-alex-cobb.html

 

Steve Adams in his chat today...

 

"Cobb isn't a lock for anything. He's never made 30 starts in a season, never thrown 180 innings, and had the third-lowest swinging-strike rate of any starter in baseball last season."

 

I think Brewer fans are overrating Cobb just so they can sell themselves on him being a likely Brewers Free Agent signing.

 

Unless the Brewers can get him for 4 years/$48M or less, I think they should set their sites on a better Starting Pitcher.

 

Either Jake Arrietta or making a trade for one.