Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[Warning Track Power]

Oddly enough Garza was never as good as Cobb. True story. Cobb was a 2 last year and profiles as a 1 if he can regain his dominant out pitch that he scrapped all of last year. You really haven't looked into cobb well enough. Wilkerson and Suter aren't #1 or even #2 types. Suter struggles after 3 ip.

Of course Cobb is better than Suter or Wilkerson, but not on a 4 year deal at age 30.

 

Garza's age 25-29 seasons:

 

FIP (weighted): 3.90, K/9: 8.0, BB/9: 2.9, HR/9: 1.0; slightly, but not significantly, worse than Cobb's career so far.

 

You also missed one critical factor with Cobb - he's only started more than 30 games in a season once, and that was back in 2012. Garza started at least 30 games in a season six times through age 29.

 

Garza through age 29 looks a lot like Cobb through age 29, but was much more durable.

 

At this point, unless I can get a TOR guy (and Darvish really was the only one - CURSE THE CUBS!), then I'll stay out of the free agent market except to re-sign Walker and add Lucroy, then try to work a deal to bring a TOR guy to Milwaukee, probably centered on a package consisting of one of Santana/Arcia and one of Davies/Woodruff, with Ortiz and Nottingham (or some other prospects along those lines).

Adding Lucroy and Walker and another SP in a Santana deal works for me as it significantly lengthens the lineup while adding another arm. I still would love for TB to be the one stop shop for a deal. Santana for Odorizzi and Colome (who is under contract until after 2020) would work for me. Run out a lineup, pitching staff and bullpen of:

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Lucroy

Walker

Thames

Arcia

 

Anderson

Davies

Odorizzi

Chacin

Woodruff/Nelson

 

Knebel

Colome

Hader

 

That is a very solid squad.

[LouisEly]

I don't like comparing Garza to Cobb as they are completely different pitchers. Garza compares better to Lynn, as both heavily rely on FB for success...and once the FB went for Garza he was toast. I see a similar pattern for Lynn. Cobb ideally is a changeup specialist, and hopefully he can get that pitch back as he notably struggled with it last year. He's another year removed from TJ and I suspect the changeup will be back. Changeup pitchers age much better than fastball pitchers.

Jeremy Hellickson has not aged very well for a changeup pitcher, and has struggled to come back from his injury in 2014; 2016 was decent, but 2015 and 2017... not so much. And he's only a year older than Cobb. I'm more concerned about Cobb's inability to stay healthy enough to start 30 games in a season during his physical prime than his pitch types, particularly on a 4-year deal.

 

I'd be OK with Cobb on a 2-year deal, but a four year deal no way.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't like comparing Garza to Cobb as they are completely different pitchers. Garza compares better to Lynn, as both heavily rely on FB for success...and once the FB went for Garza he was toast. I see a similar pattern for Lynn. Cobb ideally is a changeup specialist, and hopefully he can get that pitch back as he notably struggled with it last year. He's another year removed from TJ and I suspect the changeup will be back. Changeup pitchers age much better than fastball pitchers.

Jeremy Hellickson has not aged very well for a changeup pitcher, and has struggled to come back from his injury in 2014; 2016 was good, but 2015 and 2017... not so much. And he's only a year older than Cobb. I'm more concerned about Cobb's inability to stay healthy enough to start 30 games in a season during his physical prime than his pitch types.

 

One of Cobb's major injuries was getting hit in the face by a line drive. Are we going to worry about that with all of our pitchers?

[LouisEly]

I don't like comparing Garza to Cobb as they are completely different pitchers. Garza compares better to Lynn, as both heavily rely on FB for success...and once the FB went for Garza he was toast. I see a similar pattern for Lynn. Cobb ideally is a changeup specialist, and hopefully he can get that pitch back as he notably struggled with it last year. He's another year removed from TJ and I suspect the changeup will be back. Changeup pitchers age much better than fastball pitchers.

Jeremy Hellickson has not aged very well for a changeup pitcher, and has struggled to come back from his injury in 2014; 2016 was good, but 2015 and 2017... not so much. And he's only a year older than Cobb. I'm more concerned about Cobb's inability to stay healthy enough to start 30 games in a season during his physical prime than his pitch types.

 

One of Cobb's major injuries was getting hit in the face by a line drive. Are we going to worry about that with all of our pitchers?

I don't think that's why he missed all of 2015 and most of 2016.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't think that's why he missed all of 2015 and most of 2016.

 

That was Tommy John, which most pitchers have. Obviously you assess how much he's bounced back from it and if he even might be underpriced since this year will be his 2nd year after his comeback or if he never will recover...but Tommy John is no longer a kiss of death and one can hope that his 2nd surgery won't be anytime soon. It's another thing that can happen to almost anyone.

[Brewersfanatic2882]

If the Brewers are ever going to want to get a big named starting pitcher (Arrieta or Cobb) They're going to have to throw out some big money and that extra year in order to get them. It seems like the community is split on signing someone like Cobb to a 4 year 60mil deal. I for one am all for it. This is one offseason that we have the available money and don't have to compete with the big market teams as much on free agents this offseason due to the luxury tax. There are obviously concerns with all the pitchers available but you can make that case for just about every free agent that ever hits the market. It is very hard for someone to be as bad as suppan and Garza were but we can't let that scare us away from making a big move to the rotation especially in a year like this. 1 more big move and this team can do some damage.

[clancyphile]

ARCIA IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE!!!

 

LOL, I would say the exact same thing for Davies. Clancy definitely has players that he likes, and those he doesn't like.

 

I like Davies because he gets very good results and is cheap, but for the right price, I can see moving him, especially if the Crew can't sign him to an extension (I'd offer him seven years for $55 million, right now - $5 million per year for the first two years, $7.5 million a year for the next two, then $10 million per for the last three, and two team options for $15 million). Woodruff, I think has some real promise, but again, I'll move him for a TOR guy.

 

I've explained my position on Arcia. I just have too many questions about his bat, and if I can leverage him and some of the depth elsewhere on the roster for improvements at positions of need, I'll do that, especially if I can get an Archer/Adames package from Tampa Bay. Adames, I think will give at least 50 more points of OPS than Arcia, if not more (he posted a .776 OPS at AAA Durham at age 21, compared to Arcia's .723 at AAA Colorado Springs at 21). If Arcia's bat can answer those questions positively, then I'll say he proved me wrong.

 

I think Aguilar, Broxton, and even Thames are also options to include in a trade as well.

 

Assuming a Santana/Aguilar/Arcia/Woodruff for Archer/Colome/Adames/McCarthy deal, I'm thinking a lineup of:

2b: Walker

cf: Cain

lf: Yelich

3b: Shaw

rf: Braun

1b: Thames

c: Lucroy

ss: Adames

Bench: Pina, Villar, Perez, Phillips, Vogt

A rotation of Archer, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, and Suter

A bullpen of Knebel, Hader, Colome, Logan, Albers, Jeffress, and Gallardo

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I've explained my position on Arcia. I just have too many questions about his bat, and if I can leverage him and some of the depth elsewhere on the roster for improvements at positions of need, I'll do that, especially if I can get an Archer/Adames package from Tampa Bay. Adames, I think will give at least 50 more points of OPS than Arcia, if not more (he posted a .776 OPS at AAA Durham at age 21, compared to Arcia's .723 at AAA Colorado Springs at 21). If Arcia's bat can answer those questions positively, then I'll say he proved me wrong.

 

The problem with that, at least with Adames, is that he has no major league track record, and doesn't profile as a major league shortstop defensively. You can't just stick guys wherever on defense and expect them to be able to hack it out there. The Brewers have a history of doing that (Braun at 3B, Betancourt at SS and 1B, Fransisco at 1B, Kotsay in CF, Villar at SS) that has backfired over and over again. No more video game defense! Play the players where they profile best!

[bill hAll Star]

Assuming a Santana/Aguilar/Arcia/Woodruff for Archer/Colome/Adames/McCarthy deal, I'm thinking a lineup of:

 

Well, sure. But that trade doesn't make much sense for TB.

 

TB gives up half of their current and their not-too-distant future core, so where do they stand? Santana/Aguilar/Arcia/Woodruff is barely enough for Archer, much less those other guys.

 

If TB really made that trade, what's the motivation? They're not winning right now anyways, so trade for some guys with only 4 years of control? Aguilar is throwaway.

[brewcrewdue80]

ARCIA IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE!!!

 

LOL, I would say the exact same thing for Davies. Clancy definitely has players that he likes, and those he doesn't like.

 

I like Davies because he gets very good results and is cheap, but for the right price, I can see moving him, especially if the Crew can't sign him to an extension (I'd offer him seven years for $55 million, right now - $5 million per year for the first two years, $7.5 million a year for the next two, then $10 million per for the last three, and two team options for $15 million). Woodruff, I think has some real promise, but again, I'll move him for a TOR guy.

 

I've explained my position on Arcia. I just have too many questions about his bat, and if I can leverage him and some of the depth elsewhere on the roster for improvements at positions of need, I'll do that, especially if I can get an Archer/Adames package from Tampa Bay. Adames, I think will give at least 50 more points of OPS than Arcia, if not more (he posted a .776 OPS at AAA Durham at age 21, compared to Arcia's .723 at AAA Colorado Springs at 21). If Arcia's bat can answer those questions positively, then I'll say he proved me wrong.

 

I think Aguilar, Broxton, and even Thames are also options to include in a trade as well.

 

Assuming a Santana/Aguilar/Arcia/Woodruff for Archer/Colome/Adames/McCarthy deal, I'm thinking a lineup of:

2b: Walker

cf: Cain

lf: Yelich

3b: Shaw

rf: Braun

1b: Thames

c: Lucroy

ss: Adames

Bench: Pina, Villar, Perez, Phillips, Vogt

A rotation of Archer, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, and Suter

A bullpen of Knebel, Hader, Colome, Logan, Albers, Jeffress, and Gallardo

 

So you want Adames over Arcia who is basically a reverse more BBs than Arcia is with HRs. How's the defense compare? 4.18 Rf/9 in minors for Adames vs 4.83 on Arcia at the ML level. You create a more GB dependent pitching roster(well not Archer) only to leave an up the middle defense that is below average and expect a rookie SS to impact a WS built up roster?

 

All the pitching becomes worse as GBs that are routine for Arcia to get to, go up the middle for base hits.

Archer gives up 24HRs at MP alone not even counting road starts. (basing that on a 1.6HR/9 road split last year, 1.81HR/9 in '16)

 

Archer is such a question mark moving to MP with what his deficiencies are and costing the team in three Helping MLs for him and Colome. Adames has got to be a negative Rookie consideration and maybe just a Replacement level player in year 2 when the bullpen guys are gone.

[Jopal78]

Not to high jack the thread, but why do people want Jonathon Lucroy back? He didn't hit at all last year outside of Coors Field. By all metrics his defense and pitch framing skills eroded since he was traded to Texas, and he's going to be 32. Not to mention, that Lucroy isn't likely to sign a one year deal.

 

As for Cobb, if Darvish got an AAV of 21, and Garcia, Cachin, Cashner and Vargas got in the area of 8 million, it seems like the mid-point between those numbers is 14.5. I'm sure the players all have their arguments why they're worth more, but I wouldn't suspect Cobb to take anything less than a deal averaging 14.5 or more per year.

[TURBO]

Not to high jack the thread, but why do people want Jonathon Lucroy back?

 

Nostalgic ex-brewer love. Happens all the time...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Not to high jack the thread, but why do people want Jonathon Lucroy back?

 

Nostalgic ex-brewer love. Happens all the time...

 

Well, in fairness, the Brewers are theoretically weak at catcher (or at least its an unknown), while Lucroy is technically the top choice on the market, and is still unsigned. Seeing the match isn't necessarily completely out of left field.

[pacopete4]

Not to high jack the thread, but why do people want Jonathon Lucroy back?

 

Nostalgic ex-brewer love. Happens all the time...

 

Spare me. Lucroy would be an upgrade over Vogt. That's all this really comes down to.

[TJseven7]

I don't like comparing Garza to Cobb as they are completely different pitchers. Garza compares better to Lynn, as both heavily rely on FB for success...and once the FB went for Garza he was toast. I see a similar pattern for Lynn. Cobb ideally is a changeup specialist, and hopefully he can get that pitch back as he notably struggled with it last year. He's another year removed from TJ and I suspect the changeup will be back. Changeup pitchers age much better than fastball pitchers.

Jeremy Hellickson has not aged very well for a changeup pitcher, and has struggled to come back from his injury in 2014; 2016 was good, but 2015 and 2017... not so much. And he's only a year older than Cobb. I'm more concerned about Cobb's inability to stay healthy enough to start 30 games in a season during his physical prime than his pitch types.

 

One of Cobb's major injuries was getting hit in the face by a line drive. Are we going to worry about that with all of our pitchers?

 

Thank you. Yeah he's not durable due to a freak comebacker and poorly timed TJ? You don't want to have it during the season. That kills more than 1 season. Guy averaged 6.1 ip to a peak 6.5 ip in his years with 20 starts or more. He just posted a season at 3.66 without his best pitch... and he has relatively low wear and tear on that arm as he's missed roughly 3 seasons worth of starts.

 

Questioning his duability or saying he's close to garza is nonsense. Also since when did every pitcher start failing at 30. It's not RB. 30-33 is a solid window for a guy who has low wear and tear.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't like comparing Garza to Cobb as they are completely different pitchers. Garza compares better to Lynn, as both heavily rely on FB for success...and once the FB went for Garza he was toast. I see a similar pattern for Lynn. Cobb ideally is a changeup specialist, and hopefully he can get that pitch back as he notably struggled with it last year. He's another year removed from TJ and I suspect the changeup will be back. Changeup pitchers age much better than fastball pitchers.

Jeremy Hellickson has not aged very well for a changeup pitcher, and has struggled to come back from his injury in 2014; 2016 was decent, but 2015 and 2017... not so much. And he's only a year older than Cobb. I'm more concerned about Cobb's inability to stay healthy enough to start 30 games in a season during his physical prime than his pitch types, particularly on a 4-year deal.

 

I'd be OK with Cobb on a 2-year deal, but a four year deal no way.

 

For every Hellickson, there's a Hendricks or an Estrada or a Chase Anderson. There's one guy in the majors who's had success late in his career throwing a fastball as much as Lynn...and that's Bartolo Colon. From 2012 to 2017, the pitchers who threw 70% or more fastballs as a SP include Colon, Lynn, Masterson, Zach McCallister, Jarred Cosart, Juan Nicasio, Tyler Chatwood. Lynn and Colon are the only guys that are any good. Pitching that way simply isn't sustainable. That pitching style is not sustainable, while plenty of guys with great changeups pitch well into their mid 30s.

[bill hAll Star]

Nicasio and McCalister (somewhat backs up your theory that they had to be moved to the bullpen to stay successful) are good relievers and Chatwood - we'll see how good he is this year.

[TJseven7]

And if Cobb gets the thing back, it's not just a good change, its one of the best.

[LouisEly]

I don't think that's why he missed all of 2015 and most of 2016.

 

That was Tommy John, which most pitchers have. Obviously you assess how much he's bounced back from it and if he even might be underpriced since this year will be his 2nd year after his comeback or if he never will recover...but Tommy John is no longer a kiss of death and one can hope that his 2nd surgery won't be anytime soon. It's another thing that can happen to almost anyone.

In isolation, yes, TJ isn't the worry that it used to be... but you still have the Missaki's and the Kirby's and the Daniel Hudson's for whom it doesn't work and have a second.

 

My point is that it's not in isolation, as Cobb hasn't started 30 games in a season since 2012. TJ was 2015 and 2016. The line drive off the head was 2013. What about 2014 when he was out from mid-April to late May? What about 2017 when he missed most of the month of August?

 

It's not any one thing... it's the combination of all of those things and being 30 next season. Will he be able to throw his split-finger again with the frequency he used to? If he does... what type of risk of reinjury does that impose on a four year deal? If he doesn't... what will his performance be?

[LouisEly]

For every Hellickson, there's a Hendricks or an Estrada or a Chase Anderson.

Hendricks and Anderson are under 30 and Estrada has fallen off in his early 30's (had two good years in Toronto, but the FIP suggest some luck). Estrada's FIP every year since turning 30 has been >4.00 with two years being 4.61 and 4.88.

[StearnsFTW]

I'm at the point now where I'm almost anti big trade. I'd love cobb at 60/4 and then its time to watch. What is Anderson and Cobb? Can Davies throw an entire season without his control wandering. Can he start a season well? If 2 of those 3 are 3.5 era or lower... nelson its your turn to show what this staff really ca be.

 

It's silly in a way... I can't wait for this season to start... but I'm almost more excited to see Burnes, Woodruff (likely in the bigs), Peralta and Huira than I am to watch the big league team. Mlb teams getting better but those kids could be what finishes the build.

 

Nothing wrong with that. I still think the future is the priority for them, as it should be. I won't be too mad if they struggle a bit and have some regression. They can trade the guys approaching 30 or beyond for more prospects and continue to stockpile for the future.

 

They're not touching the Cubs or Dodgers anyway. I think the Cubs could win 110+ this year. A lot of things went wrong for them last year and they were still a top-7 team in MLB. The wild card is in reach and I hope they get one, but it's a win-win either way.

 

I know people overrate the Cubs in general, but Holy God. Their bullpen could be quite bad. They don't have an experienced closer. It could be disastrous for them. 110 wins?

[coolhandluke121]

 

I know people overrate the Cubs in general, but Holy God. Their bullpen could be quite bad. They don't have an experienced closer. It could be disastrous for them. 110 wins?

 

They have ridiculous talent in their primes or just hitting their primes. Anytime you talk about that kind of win total, obviously it's an extreme long-shot. I'm not sure if people aren't reading the post or if they just love being dramatic, but "could" only means it isn't outside the realm of possibility. There are probably about 10-12 squads this century who were outside threats to win that many games, and they're one of them - especially since the NL is mediocre as heck this year.

[3and2Fastball]

Cubs with 110 wins, they do play the Reds & Pirates, what? 17 games each? Plus playing the Padres, Marlins, Braves, Phillies 6 games each?

 

The NL is pretty mediocre this year. The Crew could win 90 games and not make the playoffs!

 

Speaking of the playoffs: anybody here comfortable with Anderson starting a playoff game vs Scherzer or Kershaw?

 

We need to sign Arrieta or Cobb.

[TJseven7]

I'm more comfortable with Anderson than Arrieta and Cobb and I want Cobb.

 

We aren't going to win those series on the strength of our starting staff. You have to win in other ways.

[pacopete4]

Not sure where this NL is mediocre talk began but it’s far from true.