Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[Oldcity]

One of the biggest strengths of the 2016 Cubs was their defense. The Cubs's defense fell off a lot last year, and they haven't done anything to address it.

 

I'm not saying they won't be great; they almost surely will. I'd be surprised if they win 100 games, and there's still plenty of room for the Brewers to grab the wildcard or even make the division interesting again like they did last year.

[superfly]

Well, I guess, don't sign Cobb and waste that money. Might as well not even play the season. Just had the trophy to Chicago now. Better luck next year Brewers.

 

Fold up shop for 3-4 years, that's when the so called "Cubs window" that really isn't a window will close.

[JohnBriggs12]

 

The Cubs are the clear division favorite, but 110+ is pretty crazy. That's been done six times in MLB history and once this century. The fact that they share a division with two solid teams in the Cardinals and Brewers, and that the Dodgers and Nationals should also be very good, makes 110+ just about impossible.

 

Last year, nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong - and they still won over 90. You can't look at it just as having guys like Quintana, Darvish, and Chatwood instead of average pitchers all year, but as having them instead of a steaming pile of patchwork options reminiscent of the Brewers with guys like Suppan, Wolf, Marcum, Garza, and Lohse way past their prime. The upgrade there is absurdly massive. And nearly every single average young player except Contreras had a really bad year; you can take it to the bank that some of them will be much better this year, even if you don't know which ones.

 

110 is tough, but the NL is still pretty weak and the Cubs should be dominant. They were dominant in 2016 with less talent than they have now.

 

"Nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong"? What? I don't recall one major injury. Kyle Hendricks missed a half dozen starts and Contreras missed about a month but that's it. Their closer didn't blow a save until the last 10 days of the season. They've lost a very productive John Jay and Zobrist turns 37 in May. They are relatively weak in the corner OF spots. Schwarber could bounce back but Happ could be ticketed for the sophomore slump this year. Arcia should prove to be a better overal SS than Russell starting this year. Their new closer, Brandon Morrow is 33, pitched only 43 2/3 innings last year and was on fumes in the playoffs. There's a lot more that could go wrong this year than what actually went wrong last year.

[pacopete4]

Well, I guess, don't sign Cobb and waste that money. Might as well not even play the season. Just had the trophy to Chicago now. Better luck next year Brewers.

 

Fold up shop for 3-4 years, that's when the so called "Cubs window" that really isn't a window will close.

Yeah, maybe I will check back in with the Brewers in 3-4 years to see if the coast is clear of those Cubs and their dynasty.

[monty57]

 

The Cubs are the clear division favorite, but 110+ is pretty crazy. That's been done six times in MLB history and once this century. The fact that they share a division with two solid teams in the Cardinals and Brewers, and that the Dodgers and Nationals should also be very good, makes 110+ just about impossible.

 

Last year, nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong - and they still won over 90. You can't look at it just as having guys like Quintana, Darvish, and Chatwood instead of average pitchers all year, but as having them instead of a steaming pile of patchwork options reminiscent of the Brewers with guys like Suppan, Wolf, Marcum, Garza, and Lohse way past their prime. The upgrade there is absurdly massive. And nearly every single average young player except Contreras had a really bad year; you can take it to the bank that some of them will be much better this year, even if you don't know which ones.

 

110 is tough, but the NL is still pretty weak and the Cubs should be dominant. They were dominant in 2016 with less talent than they have now.

 

I'd say a lot more went wrong with the Brewers. They had significant injuries to their pitching staff. I may be forgetting something, but the worst thing that happened to the Cubs was Hendricks going down for a month.

 

Rather than saying things "went wrong" with the Cubs, I think they simply showed that they are human. Some of the big names we've heard so much like Baez, Russell, and Schwarber might not be as special as they were hyped to be, and everyone goes through periods of ups-and-downs. They're a good team, but they're not superhuman, and they are certainly not deep. Every team goes through injuries, and that could cost the Cubs a lot of wins this year. Signing Darvish allows them some insurance with Montgomery, but behind him on the depth chart is some guy named Eddie Butler. Might be a bit of a drop off going from Lester/Darvish to Montgomery/Butler for any significant period of time. Next on the depth chart is Drew Smyly who won't even play this season as he recovers from TJ surgery. They really, really have to hope they don't have any significant injuries this year.

 

But, Stearns can't make his decisions based on what they Cubs are doing. The Brewers have added a lot of talent this offseason, and their offense should be much more consistent. If we add someone like Cobb, we should have a solid roster that will be bolstered mid-season when Nelson returns. Plus, we still have a fairly strong farm system that will hopefully add more talent to the MLB roster in the near future.

 

I agree with you that if the first half doesn't go our way we shouldn't hesitate to sell off some guys, but that's not something we should hope for or expect. I expect to have a team that can compete this year. But, once the games start anything can happen.

[brewcrewdue80]

I almost did it but I won't. Staying on topic.

 

Fangraphs listed Cobb for 4/60 and Cobb is coming down from that? I hadn't read that where was this stated?

 

I would have done 4/68 so 4/60 is a no brainer but less? I look at it as adding a quality SP when on the mound and helps the team's competitiveness over the course of the deal. He misses games, but we have Woodruff/Suter and Burnes(even Ponce) coming up that should fill in as injuries occur. This wouldn't be that WS needle mover in terms of ToR heads up pitcher, but with Darvish removed, there aren't any left to sign. Trade would remove that depth for SP injury.

 

I think with the Cubs getting Darvish, you have to move back to building quality team with smart signings and building a strong Minors system to replenish your losses to injury or performance. Something the Cubs are lacking and where you can overcome them when their injury riddled season or lost performance year occurs. Taking an Archer for your top prospects and leaving you w/o the depth I don't like as I agree the Cubs are closer to 110+wins than just a 100win team. Many here clamored for the upside of Chatwood and better results away from Coors. Yeah you have to put that in your beliefs for him to do so now as a Cub. Darvish, Jose Q that there is 3 very productive SPs adding Lester(who is at any point of decline with performance) Oh yeah Hendriks. It's an entire Starting 5 that are all #3s or better. Trying to face them head on by trading for Archer when 1 injury can then set you back is foolish. Our team isn't made up of #3s or better but has quality depth. It's one of those built team that is an itch you can't scratch. Nelson returns and is bad, we'd still have Woodruff or Chacin or Burnes even at that stage to replace the production you wanted from him at only a minor loss to the team. Cobb is a better performer when on the mound than other SP FAs we signed recently. The negative is when he's missing games.

[Mudville9]

I don't have the link either, but someone posted a story about him not getting 4/68 or even 4/56, which I thought was crazy. I would think if he was willing to take 4/56 he would be signed by now.

 

Found it:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/can-alex-cobb-get-the-thing-back/

[3and2Fastball]

So either the Brewers sign Cobb or High Heat folds up shop? Is that the story?

[pacopete4]

So either the Brewers sign Cobb or High Heat folds up shop? Is that the story?

Doesn’t matter. Let’s just stay on Cobb and not have this thread turn into that.

[3and2Fastball]

So either the Brewers sign Cobb or High Heat folds up shop? Is that the story?

Doesn’t matter. Let’s just stay on Cobb and not have this thread turn into that.

 

OK...

 

Although we often comment on Haudricourt or Buster Olney or any other number of inside info correspondents....

 

I think the Brewers absolutely need to sign or trade for a very good to great pitcher or the wheels could easily fall off early in the season. Cobb seems like a good compromise between potential & cost

[jjfanec]

 

The Cubs are the clear division favorite, but 110+ is pretty crazy. That's been done six times in MLB history and once this century. The fact that they share a division with two solid teams in the Cardinals and Brewers, and that the Dodgers and Nationals should also be very good, makes 110+ just about impossible.

 

Last year, nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong - and they still won over 90. You can't look at it just as having guys like Quintana, Darvish, and Chatwood instead of average pitchers all year, but as having them instead of a steaming pile of patchwork options reminiscent of the Brewers with guys like Suppan, Wolf, Marcum, Garza, and Lohse way past their prime. The upgrade there is absurdly massive. And nearly every single average young player except Contreras had a really bad year; you can take it to the bank that some of them will be much better this year, even if you don't know which ones.

 

110 is tough, but the NL is still pretty weak and the Cubs should be dominant. They were dominant in 2016 with less talent than they have now.

 

Arrieta had a 3.5 era that isn't aveage and darvish won't do a ton better than that. Lackey had a 4.7 era and chatwood wasn't much better. And I know people point to this road splits but his babip on the road was like 2. He won't sustain that. He isn't great. The Cubs aren't world bester. Lester is falling back.

[Warning Track Power]

I would prefer Arrieta as his ceiling is TOR whereas Cobb's ceiling is probably a mid-low end #2. However, as was mentioned Cobb is probably a good compromise between potential and cost.

 

Cobb for 4 years at anything under $60 million is a good deal.

[3and2Fastball]

I would prefer Arrieta as his ceiling is TOR whereas Cobb's ceiling is probably a mid-low end #2. However, as was mentioned Cobb is probably a good compromise between potential and cost.

 

Cobb for 4 years at anything under $60 million is a good deal.

 

Agree on prefering Arrieta. In fact I prefer Arrieta over Darvish. But as a fan (fanatic?) I've pretty much resigned myself that we aren't getting Jake.

 

So of the remaining options: I like Cobb a lot more than Lynn. And I like Cobb more than having to give up Burnes to get Archer. And, finally I like Cobb a heckuva lot more than "we'll start the season with who we have and if we're in it in July will trade for a TOR then...."

[Warning Track Power]

In fact I prefer Arrieta over Darvish. But as a fan (fanatic?) I've pretty much resigned myself that we aren't getting Jake.

 

So of the remaining options: I like Cobb a lot more than Lynn. And I like Cobb more than having to give up Burnes to get Archer. And, finally I like Cobb a heckuva lot more than "we'll start the season with who we have and if we're in it in July will trade for a TOR then...."

I agree with your hierarchy of Arrieta>Darvish>Cobb>Lynn as well as Cobb>Burnes for Archer.

 

The question I am having with myself is if the Brewers were to sign Cobb, would that eliminate them from trading for Odorizzi? Anderson-Cobb-Davies-Odorizzi-Chacin/Woodruff. If I were Stearns, I would be building the rotation not expecting to ever see the 2017 Nelson again. Odorizzi provides another bridge piece to Burnes-Woodruff-Ortiz etc...

[3and2Fastball]

Once again I agree with you. I'd like to see them sign one pitcher and trade for another. The likelihood that Nelson returns to his 2015-2016 level of production is pretty strong, and the same can be said of Chase Anderson. There were a lot of pleasant surprises with our pitching last year but essentially our pitching staff is the same one that comprised our "rebuilding team" staff in April of 2017. I've watched enough Baseball to not be shocked if Knebel turns out to be a one year wonder (lots of closers are) and the starters we have are all 4 something guys in 2018

 

The roster as currently comprised really reminds me of the 2012 Brewers, although with much better defense. But still we look on paper like a team that will need to win a bunch of 9-8 games (scoring a lot of runs and giving up a lot of runs)

[Steiny231]

Hi everyone. First post here in a while (other username back then, no idea what anymore .

 

The longer this goes and the more low level additions that are made, the more I get the feeling that nothing more of significance will happen. Just a gut feeling. Seems like Stearns and crew are perfectly fine waiting and the additions of Cain and Yelich weren't necessarily made to go for it this season. Hope I'm reading that wrong because I think if they don't get more/better pitching, we've wasted year 1 of Cain/Yelich.

[TJseven7]

I would prefer Arrieta as his ceiling is TOR whereas Cobb's ceiling is probably a mid-low end #2. However, as was mentioned Cobb is probably a good compromise between potential and cost.

 

Cobb for 4 years at anything under $60 million is a good deal.

 

I think you are overselling everyone else or underselling Cobb. He was a 3.66 without his best pitch. There's a completely explainable reason for him being a 3.66 instead of a 2.8 that he was at 25-26.

 

He's 3 era capable. He is 32 start near 200 ip capable. Non-flashy near ace territory. That's not a low 2. That's a solid 1.

[3and2Fastball]

Hi everyone. First post here in a while (other username back then, no idea what anymore .

 

The longer this goes and the more low level additions that are made, the more I get the feeling that nothing more of significance will happen. Just a gut feeling. Seems like Stearns and crew are perfectly fine waiting and the additions of Cain and Yelich weren't necessarily made to go for it this season. Hope I'm reading that wrong because I think if they don't get more/better pitching, we've wasted year 1 of Cain/Yelich.

 

 

Welcome back! And: I strongly agree.

 

This team has plenty of firepower on offense. Arguably as good of an offense top to bottom as any team in the NL. No reason not to completely go for it this year.

[JohnBriggs12]

That's the tough part of 'going for it' right now. LAD, WAS, and Cubs are just loaded and there's no moves you can make to be on par with them.

 

Still there's reason to add the SP and try. You can make yourself the likely 4th best team giving you a good shot at the playoffs where anything can happen. As loaded as the Cubs are now that they've sured up their SP, an injury to one of Rizzo/Bryant makes their offense extremely pedestrian. Their offense is extremely top heavy with those two. Also, as we all know MKE can't compete in the market next offseason and the market factors have suppressed prices this offseason so it's the right time to be 'buying low', so to speak. And beyond that, WAS team is likely to fall off quite a bit in 2019 so it at least reduces one powerhouse then.

 

I agree with trying to get the Wild Card. I don't agree that the Cubs' offense is pedestrian after Bryant/Rizzo. A lot of guys had down years, and regression to the mean is in their favor in a big way. Plus they have Quintana, Chatwood, and Darvish for a full season, instead of having Quintana for just half a season. They're going to be a nightmare.

 

I'm fine with buying low, but make sure the future is your priority. The Yelich trade is fine. Signing Cain is okay. But don't be too stubborn to punt on the season if you muddle through the first 3 months.

 

I don't buy that a lot of Cub hitters had down years last year. Russell's a career .240 hitter and his career OPS is .719. Last year he was right on those numbers. He gets a lot of love as a top shortstop but he's really never been a great hitter. Heyward had a significantly better offensive year than the year before and it was still bad for a corner OF. Peter Bourjos is not going to come close to John Jay's numbers. Zobrist is at the end of the line. Baez had the best year of his career. We really don't know what Schwarber is. Last year he looked a lot like Adam Dunn. That's who he might well be. Happ hit some HR and got a lot of attention but wasn't anything special. Contreras was about as expected and very good. Bryant's RBI output was down, but he still posted the best OPS of his career. No the Cub hitters as a group didn't have down year. That's a fallacy.

[JohnBriggs12]

Let's not forget in regards to the Cubs that while their lineup is still relatively young, they don't have any prospects ready to come up and make the type of impact that say Ian Happ made last year. They are pretty tapped out at the upper levels. And some of their youngish players have plateaued like Russell. If they have even a normal amount of injuries, they aren't nearly as formidable.

[82brewcrew82]

Let's not forget in regards to the Cubs that while their lineup is still relatively young, they don't have any prospects ready to come up and make the type of impact that say Ian Happ made last year. They are pretty tapped out at the upper levels. And some of their youngish players have plateaued like Russell. If they have even a normal amount of injuries, they aren't nearly as formidable.

They have the resources to fix whatever ails them and signing Darvish allows them to mitigate that risk by spreading it to other facets of the team. They will be formidable and, rightly, the consensus favorite to win the division.

[LouisEly]

I would prefer Arrieta as his ceiling is TOR whereas Cobb's ceiling is probably a mid-low end #2. However, as was mentioned Cobb is probably a good compromise between potential and cost.

 

Cobb for 4 years at anything under $60 million is a good deal.

I'd rather roll with Suter/Wilkerson than sign a 30-year-old Matt Garza Alex Cobb for four years. Multi-year deals for 30-year-old #3 starter types haven't worked real well around here.

 

Taking the journeymen out of the discussion, the Brewers have Suter/Wilkerson right now with Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Perrin, and Derby waiting in the wings in case of injury/ineffectiveness. I'd rather roll with that and then re-evaluate in June if a trade needs to be made than sign Cobb for four years.

[jjfanec]

Let's not forget in regards to the Cubs that while their lineup is still relatively young, they don't have any prospects ready to come up and make the type of impact that say Ian Happ made last year. They are pretty tapped out at the upper levels. And some of their youngish players have plateaued like Russell. If they have even a normal amount of injuries, they aren't nearly as formidable.

They have the resources to fix whatever ails them and signing Darvish allows them to mitigate that risk by spreading it to other facets of the team. They will be formidable and, rightly, the consensus favorite to win the division.

 

I don't think anyone is saying the Cubs aren't the favorite. People are saying they aren't head and shoulders above everyone else. Someone said they were going to win something like 110 games. That is crazy

[coolhandluke121]

 

 

I don't buy that a lot of Cub hitters had down years last year. Russell's a career .240 hitter and his career OPS is .719. Last year he was right on those numbers. He gets a lot of love as a top shortstop but he's really never been a great hitter. Heyward had a significantly better offensive year than the year before and it was still bad for a corner OF. Peter Bourjos is not going to come close to John Jay's numbers. Zobrist is at the end of the line. Baez had the best year of his career. We really don't know what Schwarber is. Last year he looked a lot like Adam Dunn. That's who he might well be. Happ hit some HR and got a lot of attention but wasn't anything special. Contreras was about as expected and very good. Bryant's RBI output was down, but he still posted the best OPS of his career. No the Cub hitters as a group didn't have down year. That's a fallacy.

 

7 of their 11 top position players were 25 or under (or turned 25) last year, including 5 starters. Rizzo and Heyward were 27 for most of the season. That doesn't include Happ. Zobrist's age is irrelevant because it won't be hard to get more production from his replacements as he transitions to a lesser role. They're almost all theoretically still before their peaks or right there. I noticed the young guys who had a good year was just "a career year" to you, but the young guys who had a bad year are just doing what you think they're supposed to. Can't have it both ways. It's not relevant to cite career numbers or career years with players that young. They have a scary amount of talent and their best is yet to come.

 

Chatwood, Darvish, and a full year of Quintana is absolutely a massive upgrade over Arrieta, Lackey, and Anderson/Butler, who had a combined FIP of nearly 5. Quintana and Chatwood are right in their primes. Montgomery is there for injury replacements or if Chatwood disappoints. Think about it like this: he was their 3rd-best pitcher (2nd-best before the Quintana trade) last year and they are projected to have him in long relief now. I think it's gonna be a bloodbath in the Central. Happy to chase that wild card though, because inferior teams can steal a playoff series in baseball.

[TJseven7]

I would prefer Arrieta as his ceiling is TOR whereas Cobb's ceiling is probably a mid-low end #2. However, as was mentioned Cobb is probably a good compromise between potential and cost.

 

Cobb for 4 years at anything under $60 million is a good deal.

I'd rather roll with Suter/Wilkerson than sign a 30-year-old Matt Garza Alex Cobb for four years. Multi-year deals for 30-year-old #3 starter types haven't worked real well around here.

 

Taking the journeymen out of the discussion, the Brewers have Suter/Wilkerson right now with Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Perrin, and Derby waiting in the wings in case of injury/ineffectiveness. I'd rather roll with that and then re-evaluate in June if a trade needs to be made than sign Cobb for four years.

 

Oddly enough Garza was never as good as Cobb. True story. Cobb was a 2 last year and profiles as a 1 if he can regain his dominant out pitch that he scrapped all of last year. You really haven't looked into cobb well enough. Wilkerson and Suter aren't #1 or even #2 types. Suter struggles after 3 ip. He shouldn't go more than 4. He's a perfect long man.

 

All the guys you put as waiting in the wings are free to bump Chacin after this year, or free to make Davies expendable. Anderson cobb nelson have 1 potential. You dont pass a 1 to kick the tires on a guy.