Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[DR28]

Sign Cobb & Walker, keep Santana and go battle for the division!

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Nelson on DL

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

Gallardo/Suter

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

Very, very solid team!

 

Yeah that is one sweet line-up. I'm starting to warm up to the idea of just keeping Santana and signing a FA pitcher like Cobb and then trading for a pitcher at the deadline if necessary.

 

 

Agreed go get Fulmer or Stroman in July if we need to.

[chris10809]

 

Very cool analysis.

 

Every team in the league has this information and every team in the league is in the market for starting pitching to one degree or another. Moneyball changed the game from old guys with radar guns and stop watches to piles of data.

 

Our edge is CC and DJ who have turned chicken stuff into chicken salad.

 

I think you value chicken salad more highly than I do.

 

Everybody's always sleeping on chicken salad, Chicken salad can play, don't you worry about that!

[TJseven7]

It also doesn't age as poorly as tuna or egg. In this market durability is a real concern.

[anglotiger]

Everybody's always sleeping on chicken salad, Chicken salad can play, don't you worry about that!

 

Of course Chicken Salad can play... have you seen the advanced stats...?

[Boomer5]

 

Very cool analysis.

 

Every team in the league has this information and every team in the league is in the market for starting pitching to one degree or another. Moneyball changed the game from old guys with radar guns and stop watches to piles of data.

 

Our edge is CC and DJ who have turned chicken stuff into chicken salad.

 

I think you value chicken salad more highly than I do.

 

Stearns really handcuffed our pitching staff with his moves, and still DJ and CC turned the staff and in particular the rotation into something like the 10th best in baseball. That's pretty darn impressive.

 

Yeah chicken salad won't get you to the World Series but it wasn't the tank team Sterns gave them either.

[chris10809]

Sign Cobb & Walker, keep Santana and go battle for the division!

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Nelson on DL

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

Gallardo/Suter

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

Very, very solid team!

 

Yeah that is one sweet line-up. I'm starting to warm up to the idea of just keeping Santana and signing a FA pitcher like Cobb and then trading for a pitcher at the deadline if necessary.

 

 

Agreed go get Fulmer or Stroman in July if we need to.

 

That sounds great of course, but that hypothetical july trade almost certainly would take Santana out of the lineup and put thames or whoever in his place. still a good lineup but less so. Archer would absolutely obliterate the minor league prospect hierarchy, as a brewers' fan i worry about emptying the minors. What happens in 3-5 years when all these top prospects are all gone? Small market teams can't trade prospects as non-chalantly as a team like Chicago or New York. Stearns says it all the time, it's about winning now and in the future. The Yelich and Cain additions are great because they're 5 year deals, Yelich is getting better every year. Most of the starting pitching is young. Knebel, Arcia, Shaw, Santana, Yelich are all 27 and under.

[TJseven7]

I'm at the point now where I'm almost anti big trade. I'd love cobb at 60/4 and then its time to watch. What is Anderson and Cobb? Can Davies throw an entire season without his control wandering. Can he start a season well? If 2 of those 3 are 3.5 era or lower... nelson its your turn to show what this staff really ca be.

 

It's silly in a way... I can't wait for this season to start... but I'm almost more excited to see Burnes, Woodruff (likely in the bigs), Peralta and Huira than I am to watch the big league team. Mlb teams getting better but those kids could be what finishes the build.

[coolhandluke121]

I'm at the point now where I'm almost anti big trade. I'd love cobb at 60/4 and then its time to watch. What is Anderson and Cobb? Can Davies throw an entire season without his control wandering. Can he start a season well? If 2 of those 3 are 3.5 era or lower... nelson its your turn to show what this staff really ca be.

 

It's silly in a way... I can't wait for this season to start... but I'm almost more excited to see Burnes, Woodruff (likely in the bigs), Peralta and Huira than I am to watch the big league team. Mlb teams getting better but those kids could be what finishes the build.

 

Nothing wrong with that. I still think the future is the priority for them, as it should be. I won't be too mad if they struggle a bit and have some regression. They can trade the guys approaching 30 or beyond for more prospects and continue to stockpile for the future.

 

They're not touching the Cubs or Dodgers anyway. I think the Cubs could win 110+ this year. A lot of things went wrong for them last year and they were still a top-7 team in MLB. The wild card is in reach and I hope they get one, but it's a win-win either way.

[tmwiese55]

That's the tough part of 'going for it' right now. LAD, WAS, and Cubs are just loaded and there's no moves you can make to be on par with them.

 

Still there's reason to add the SP and try. You can make yourself the likely 4th best team giving you a good shot at the playoffs where anything can happen. As loaded as the Cubs are now that they've sured up their SP, an injury to one of Rizzo/Bryant makes their offense extremely pedestrian. Their offense is extremely top heavy with those two. Also, as we all know MKE can't compete in the market next offseason and the market factors have suppressed prices this offseason so it's the right time to be 'buying low', so to speak. And beyond that, WAS team is likely to fall off quite a bit in 2019 so it at least reduces one powerhouse then.

[JohnBriggs12]

The reason for a trade in July would be to strengthen the rotation to not just get to the playoffs but be in position to win it all. That doesn't mean you unload the farm system. One really good prospect or Santana will get a rental. It doesn't have to be a starter. It could be a top flight bullpen arm.

[Oldcity]

They're not touching the Cubs or Dodgers anyway. I think the Cubs could win 110+ this year. A lot of things went wrong for them last year and they were still a top-7 team in MLB. The wild card is in reach and I hope they get one, but it's a win-win either way.

 

The Cubs are the clear division favorite, but 110+ is pretty crazy. That's been done six times in MLB history and once this century. The fact that they share a division with two solid teams in the Cardinals and Brewers, and that the Dodgers and Nationals should also be very good, makes 110+ just about impossible.

[SandyTolan]

The reason for a trade in July would be to strengthen the rotation to not just get to the playoffs but be in position to win it all. That doesn't mean you unload the farm system. One really good prospect or Santana will get a rental. It doesn't have to be a starter. It could be a top flight bullpen arm.

 

Exactly. You could even have a scenario where Hader has lowered his pitch count/BB per inning, developed a third pitch, and goes into the rotation in August while a stud reliever takes his place. A lot of scenarios...

[monty57]

I'm at the point now where I'm almost anti big trade. I'd love cobb at 60/4 and then its time to watch. What is Anderson and Cobb? Can Davies throw an entire season without his control wandering. Can he start a season well? If 2 of those 3 are 3.5 era or lower... nelson its your turn to show what this staff really ca be.

 

It's silly in a way... I can't wait for this season to start... but I'm almost more excited to see Burnes, Woodruff (likely in the bigs), Peralta and Huira than I am to watch the big league team. Mlb teams getting better but those kids could be what finishes the build.

 

I'm with you. For Yelich, we mainly gave up high-minors outfielders, which was a big price but were guys we shouldn't need considering our MLB roster. Most importantly, we held onto our top pitching prospects. I'd hate to see us give up the prospects it would take to land someone like Archer.

 

From the Fangraphs article posted earlier, Cobb's price may be coming down from the 4/$60 he originally wanted, so he's probably the guy I'd most like us to sign to shore up our rotation. I'd then hold onto Santana and look to make minor trades with guys like Broxton and Aguilar (for someone like Cotton) so Braun could spend a good share of time at 1B and Phillips would still get some PAs.

 

I think that could be a pretty good team, with lots of team control, and we'd still have a fairly strong farm.

[homer]

The good news regarding HH19 going all-in now on the Cobb stuff is that at least we should know in the next couple of days if this guy is a complete fraud or if he actually might have a legit source? I have my serious doubts now (especially the way he's handling himself on Twitter), but I do hope he's right with this Cobb prediction.

 

Of course, he could just be making an educated guess on Cobb (while not having any source with the Brewers), but I'd definitely have a bump in faith in him if Cobb to the Brewers plays out here in the next 24-48 hours.

 

Everyone should worry about themselves and let HH19 worry about himself. And last I looked, this is the Alex Cobb thread, let's keep it that way.

 

 

Well said.

[coolhandluke121]

That's the tough part of 'going for it' right now. LAD, WAS, and Cubs are just loaded and there's no moves you can make to be on par with them.

 

Still there's reason to add the SP and try. You can make yourself the likely 4th best team giving you a good shot at the playoffs where anything can happen. As loaded as the Cubs are now that they've sured up their SP, an injury to one of Rizzo/Bryant makes their offense extremely pedestrian. Their offense is extremely top heavy with those two. Also, as we all know MKE can't compete in the market next offseason and the market factors have suppressed prices this offseason so it's the right time to be 'buying low', so to speak. And beyond that, WAS team is likely to fall off quite a bit in 2019 so it at least reduces one powerhouse then.

 

I agree with trying to get the Wild Card. I don't agree that the Cubs' offense is pedestrian after Bryant/Rizzo. A lot of guys had down years, and regression to the mean is in their favor in a big way. Plus they have Quintana, Chatwood, and Darvish for a full season, instead of having Quintana for just half a season. They're going to be a nightmare.

 

I'm fine with buying low, but make sure the future is your priority. The Yelich trade is fine. Signing Cain is okay. But don't be too stubborn to punt on the season if you muddle through the first 3 months.

[stoutdude04]

 

Yeah chicken salad won't get you to the World Series but it wasn't the tank team Sterns gave them either.

 

I know you've said this before, but do you know that Stearns was trying to rack up losses? Is it possible he saw some of the talent and it finally got put together? Of course there were a few pieces that didn't pan out, but it didn't look like a tank team to me from the beginning. In fact, I hit the over on wins last year. No way I was the only one that saw talent from this team. Did I expect them to be one game out of the wildcard? No. I'd be willing to guess Stearns saw it too.

[tmwiese55]

That's the tough part of 'going for it' right now. LAD, WAS, and Cubs are just loaded and there's no moves you can make to be on par with them.

 

Still there's reason to add the SP and try. You can make yourself the likely 4th best team giving you a good shot at the playoffs where anything can happen. As loaded as the Cubs are now that they've sured up their SP, an injury to one of Rizzo/Bryant makes their offense extremely pedestrian. Their offense is extremely top heavy with those two. Also, as we all know MKE can't compete in the market next offseason and the market factors have suppressed prices this offseason so it's the right time to be 'buying low', so to speak. And beyond that, WAS team is likely to fall off quite a bit in 2019 so it at least reduces one powerhouse then.

 

I agree with trying to get the Wild Card. I don't agree that the Cubs' offense is pedestrian after Bryant/Rizzo. A lot of guys had down years, and regression to the mean is in their favor in a big way. Plus they have Quintana, Chatwood, and Darvish for a full season, instead of having Quintana for just half a season. They're going to be a nightmare.

 

I'm fine with buying low, but make sure the future is your priority. The Yelich trade is fine. Signing Cain is okay. But don't be too stubborn to punt on the season if you muddle through the first 3 months.

 

Having two MVP level players his huge, so yea their offense is good. But other than C they have no other + hitters at their positions. Sure, some are still young and could take a leap but after being up for a couple years already we'll see if that happens. This could also change drastically if Schwarber lives up to the hype rather than being a Mark Reynolds/Chris Carter type. But as of now that's a big question. That's all I meant by it, take out one of Bryant/Rizzo for a big chunk of the year and that lineup is just like any other ok team. I'd assume MKE would need a break of that nature to give them a really good shoot at the division rather than the outside shot they'd have now. Like you said, they fixed their pitching big time now.

[bill hAll Star]

That's the tough part of 'going for it' right now. LAD, WAS, and Cubs are just loaded and there's no moves you can make to be on par with them.

 

Still there's reason to add the SP and try. You can make yourself the likely 4th best team giving you a good shot at the playoffs where anything can happen. As loaded as the Cubs are now that they've sured up their SP, an injury to one of Rizzo/Bryant makes their offense extremely pedestrian. Their offense is extremely top heavy with those two. Also, as we all know MKE can't compete in the market next offseason and the market factors have suppressed prices this offseason so it's the right time to be 'buying low', so to speak. And beyond that, WAS team is likely to fall off quite a bit in 2019 so it at least reduces one powerhouse then.

 

I agree with trying to get the Wild Card. I don't agree that the Cubs' offense is pedestrian after Bryant/Rizzo. A lot of guys had down years, and regression to the mean is in their favor in a big way. Plus they have Quintana, Chatwood, and Darvish for a full season, instead of having Quintana for just half a season. They're going to be a nightmare.

 

I'm fine with buying low, but make sure the future is your priority. The Yelich trade is fine. Signing Cain is okay. But don't be too stubborn to punt on the season if you muddle through the first 3 months.

 

Having two MVP level players his huge, so yea their offense is good. But other than C they have no other + hitters at their positions. Sure, some are still young and could take a leap but after being up for a couple years already we'll see if that happens. This could also change drastically if Schwarber lives up to the hype rather than being a Mark Reynolds/Chris Carter type. But as of now that's a big question. That's all I meant by it, take out one of Bryant/Rizzo for a big chunk of the year and that lineup is just like any other ok team. I'd assume MKE would need a break of that nature to give them a really good shoot at the division rather than the outside shot they'd have now. Like you said, they fixed their pitching big time now.

 

Happ and Baez have some strikeout issues (and Schwarber, of course), but all 3 of those guys could be either considered "plus" hitters now or in the future at their positions.

 

I get what you're saying, though. If one of their studs is out, unless one of those guys really breaks out, the offense may just be solid/good instead of really good.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, I guess the people that thought that a Darvish signing, coupled with the opening of spring camps, would open up the floodgates on the rest of the market were flat-out wrong. The continued lack of activity is actually making me kind of mad, because I don't know who to blame. I waffle back and forth between blaming players who are pricing themselves out of the market, and greedy owners/GMs who are lowballing them. In truth, it's probably a little of both.

 

But looking at the Wade Miley signing last night, and seeing that he only became a free agent because the Orioles declined a $12 million option, I think that kind of defines what's wrong with baseball's free agent market.

[bill hAll Star]

Well, I guess the people that thought that a Darvish signing, coupled with the opening of spring camps, would open up the floodgates on the rest of the market were flat-out wrong. The continued lack of activity is actually making me kind of mad, because I don't know who to blame. I waffle back and forth between blaming players who are pricing themselves out of the market, and greedy owners/GMs who are lowballing them. In truth, it's probably a little of both.

 

But looking at the Wade Miley signing last night, and seeing that he only became a free agent because the Orioles declined a $12 million option, I think that kind of defines what's wrong with baseball's free agent market.

 

No, it really doesn't. That $12 million option was brokered to buy out his arbitration years when he was a young, promising, underpaid pitcher.

 

There will be a problem or loophole or market inefficiency and overpaid players in any system the MLB implements.

 

The NBA has a hard cap and harsh penalties for going over it and there are hilariously overpaid vets. That's how things go.

 

Miley's contract was one that bought out arbitration.

 

Miley made $500k when he made the All Star game at age 25 and threw 200 good innings at age 26. He got a free agency buyout/arbitration buyout contract around then. That's what we want "smart" small markets to do. Miley struggled as the contract went on.

 

I don't understand why people need to see every player compensated 100% fairly for the production that the player has at that millisecond of time. Why does it bother people so much? The system can be improved but Matt Garza was recently overpaid, Travis Shaw is underpaid. It evens out and for the most part those guys have their production get evened out over time and it evens out on most MLB rosters.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, I guess the people that thought that a Darvish signing, coupled with the opening of spring camps, would open up the floodgates on the rest of the market were flat-out wrong. The continued lack of activity is actually making me kind of mad, because I don't know who to blame. I waffle back and forth between blaming players who are pricing themselves out of the market, and greedy owners/GMs who are lowballing them. In truth, it's probably a little of both.

 

But looking at the Wade Miley signing last night, and seeing that he only became a free agent because the Orioles declined a $12 million option, I think that kind of defines what's wrong with baseball's free agent market.

 

No, it really doesn't. That $12 million option was brokered to buy out his arbitration years when he was a young, promising, underpaid pitcher.

 

There will be a problem and overpaid players in any system the MLB implements.

 

The NBA has a hard cap and harsh penalties for going over it and there are hilariously overpaid vets. That's how things go.

 

Miley's contract was one that bought out arbitration.

 

Miley made $500k when he made the All Star game at age 25 and threw 200 good innings at age 26. He got a free agency buyout/arbitration buyout contract around then. That's what we want "smart" small markets to do. Miley struggled as the contract went on.

 

I don't understand why people need to see every player compensated 100% fairly for the production that the player has at that millisecond of time. Why does it bother people so much? The system can be improved but Matt Garza was recently overpaid, Travis Shaw is underpaid. It evens out and for the most part those guys have their production get evened out over time and it evens out on most MLB rosters.

 

Miley signed his arbitration buyout extension as a 28-year-old member of the Red Sox. Coming off a year where he went 8-12 with a 4.34 ERA. I agree there will be overpaid players regardless of the system in place, but this was a case of a big market team throwing money at an at-most league average pitcher.

 

In any case, that doesn't change the fact that the market continues to move at a snail's pace, despite many agents claiming that Darvish was holding up the market.

[bill hAll Star]

Miley signed his arbitration buyout extension as a 28-year-old member of the Red Sox. Coming off a year where he went 8-12 with a 4.34 ERA. I agree there will be overpaid players regardless of the system in place, but this was a case of a big market team throwing money at a at-most league average pitcher.

 

His FIP/xFIP was mostly in line with the rest of his career.

 

This will happen in any system. Even if it truly was a bad move, teams should be able to sign stupid contracts. Sometimes they end up being really smart or sometimes they're the piece that gets a team over the hump.

 

In the end, Miley made about $25 million bucks. He produced that much more more in his career.

 

Miley was literally 2 years removed from being an All Star when he got that contract. And the beginning part of the extension where he was getting $6 million or $9 million is fair value for a league-average pitcher. They bought out a year of free agency with an option basically.

 

They could've been betting that he was still a 4.35 ERA AL East pitcher, which is worth that. He ended up falling off a cliff at certain points (by the way, he had stretches with Washington/Baltimore/Boston that were still good. The bad was just really bad for him).

[monty57]

In any case, that doesn't change the fact that the market continues to move at a snail's pace, despite many agents claiming that Darvish was holding up the market.

 

In negotiations, sometimes you have to dig in your heels. Teams have hired young, Ivy League GMs who all subscribe to the same mentality as to how to value players. This methodology shows that some guys have been way overpaid, so those GMs aren't paying what some players (and their agents) thought they were worth. Meanwhile, players and their agents are used to seeing massive inflation to salaries every year, regardless of what's going on in the "real world," and they want/expect those salaries to continue to rise without a hitch.

 

For the teams to have any leverage, they have to be willing to pass on players who could give them a better chance of winning unless they come down to their price. For the players, they have to be willing to sit out a season (or partial season) and give up a year of playing and getting paid unless teams come up to their price. At some point, individual teams and individual players will find common ground and sign deals. That may or may not happen before the season starts. I think we will see some players sign, while some players will start the season unemployed.

[coolhandluke121]

 

The Cubs are the clear division favorite, but 110+ is pretty crazy. That's been done six times in MLB history and once this century. The fact that they share a division with two solid teams in the Cardinals and Brewers, and that the Dodgers and Nationals should also be very good, makes 110+ just about impossible.

 

Last year, nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong - and they still won over 90. You can't look at it just as having guys like Quintana, Darvish, and Chatwood instead of average pitchers all year, but as having them instead of a steaming pile of patchwork options reminiscent of the Brewers with guys like Suppan, Wolf, Marcum, Garza, and Lohse way past their prime. The upgrade there is absurdly massive. And nearly every single average young player except Contreras had a really bad year; you can take it to the bank that some of them will be much better this year, even if you don't know which ones.

 

110 is tough, but the NL is still pretty weak and the Cubs should be dominant. They were dominant in 2016 with less talent than they have now.

[pacopete4]

Well, I guess, don't sign Cobb and waste that money. Might as well not even play the season. Just had the trophy to Chicago now. Better luck next year Brewers.