Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[brewcrewdue80]

Cobb is going into his 2nd season post-Tommy John surgery, which is when you typically see an uptick in velocity and performance for pitchers. His numbers pre-surgery are near ace-level.

 

His best year was age 27 when he put up a nWAR of 2.8 (not elite). Davies has done that the last 2 years.

 

Cobb was 29 last year and everything in his performance curve matches age related decline. I don't see him having a huge year this year. He will benefit from the move to the NL and he may put up a 3 WAR, but there is nothing that clearly says he's due to a massive improvement as he ages. It would be great if we get that from him, but I wouldn't pay him based on a 3+ War in 2018.

 

WAR is an accumulated stat. Side by side if Davies pitches 180IP and Cobb pitches 180innings Cobb beats Davies probably by a Full 1 WAR. Cobb's career ERA is 3.5 to 3.91 Davies. Strictly RA9 it's 3.73 to 4.24 Fip 3.68 to 4.05 Cobb's career IP per start is 6.1 to Davies 5.8.

 

There's just not much you can say Davies does better aside from durability. What Davies works with he does well, but it is limited.

[Oldcity]

Cobb by himself just makes us a decent team that can challenge for a WC, not become a serious WS team.

 

The Brewers are a decent team that can challenge for a wildcard right now. Cobb only makes them better and adds depth. He probably adds a couple wins to projections and makes them a wildcard favorite.

[PF28]

Cobb would slot in as our number two starter to begin the year, and as long as cost is reasonable (4 years, $56 million tops), you take advantage of the opportunity to upgrade your rotation to this degree.

[brewerhuman]

Cobb would slot in as our number two starter to begin the year, and as long as cost is reasonable (4 years, $56 million tops), you take advantage of the opportunity to upgrade your rotation to this degree.

 

I like the way that's worded. It doesn't suggest that Stearns thinks that Cobb is necessarily the missing piece to the rotation. I'd argue that he sees getting Cobb at a price they're comfortable with as taking advantage of an opportunity like you said. Extra talent at reasonable value can't hurt.

[DR28]

Any updates on Twitter from HH on Cobb?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Any updates on Twitter from HH on Cobb?

 

Man, just look: https://twitter.com/HighHeat9Teen

[DR28]

Any updates on Twitter from HH on Cobb?

 

Man, just look: https://twitter.com/HighHeat9Teen

 

I cant at work.

 

Thanks!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Any updates on Twitter from HH on Cobb?

 

Man, just look: https://twitter.com/HighHeat9Teen

 

I cant at work.

 

Thanks!

 

Gotcha ... no, no updates. I'm sure anything would be up on this thread momentarily if there were, though.

 

I think for the sake of everyone's sanity, we should probably lay off begging him for updates. That's kind of what got things messy to begin with.

[bjkrautk]

I think for the sake of everyone's sanity, we should probably lay off begging him for updates. That's kind of what got things messy to begin with.

 

+1

[DR28]

Gotcha ... no, no updates. I'm sure anything would be up on this thread momentarily if there were, though.

 

I think for the sake of everyone's sanity, we should probably lay off begging him for updates. That's kind of what got things messy to begin with.

 

Yep agreed... I just really want Alex added to rotation! Haha.

[pogokat]

let's let him update twitter when he wants and keep discussion about Cobb here. There's no need to copy every tweet to this forum

[Roderick]

If they need to go higher, the additional money might be better spent when trying to get a TOR at the trade deadline.

 

Trading deadling trades are more about the prospects than the 1/3 of the season salary left on whoever you are picking up.

[3and2Fastball]

I'd be thrilled with the Brewers signing Cobb. Definitely a step in the right direction.

[mlloyd10]

Sign Cobb, Trade for Salazer

[anglotiger]

My apologies if this has already been posted, but I found this fascinating...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/can-alex-cobb-get-the-thing-back/

[DR28]

Sign Cobb & Walker, keep Santana and go battle for the division!

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Nelson on DL

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

Gallardo/Suter

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

Very, very solid team!

[MillerParkSouth]

Timely article on FG today. The fact that he hasn't gotten his feel for his split change back yet would be concerning to me, but he also acknowledges that it's usually the last pitch to come back and he at least knows exactly what to do. It also indicates that the 4/$60MM deal he was looking for is probably out the window. I think if we can get him for 4/$50 or thereabouts, it'd be a good value. Maybe load the contract with incentives so that if he does regain his form and becomes a stud he can get paid.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/can-alex-cobb-get-the-thing-back/

[anglotiger]

Timely article on FG today. The fact that he hasn't gotten his feel for his split change back yet would be concerning to me, but he also acknowledges that it's usually the last pitch to come back and he at least knows exactly what to do. It also indicates that the 4/$60MM deal he was looking for is probably out the window. I think if we can get him for 4/$50 or thereabouts, it'd be a good value. Maybe load the contract with incentives so that if he does regain his form and becomes a stud he can get paid.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/can-alex-cobb-get-the-thing-back/

 

You were probably typing that out while I was posting the link...

[TJseven7]

Timely article on FG today. The fact that he hasn't gotten his feel for his split change back yet would be concerning to me, but he also acknowledges that it's usually the last pitch to come back and he at least knows exactly what to do. It also indicates that the 4/$60MM deal he was looking for is probably out the window. I think if we can get him for 4/$50 or thereabouts, it'd be a good value. Maybe load the contract with incentives so that if he does regain his form and becomes a stud he can get paid.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/can-alex-cobb-get-the-thing-back/

 

This makes me want him more. His win pitch was gone, he wisely decreased its use to save his results and he still posted a solid era. He finds that pitch and last years numbers are his floor.

 

There's risks in every fa arm to some degree. But if that pitch comes back, well thats a lot of upside. If you took chacins slider away he'd be a peralta level mess. Cobb lost his ace pitch and still was a 3.6? That's incredibly promising.

[TJseven7]

That pitches usage went from 35% in his 25-26 seasons to 14% last season. From a +15.6 run suppressor to a -5.2 run allower.

 

The whole era spike from 2.8 era to 3.65 is right there. That 1 pitch.

 

Ifs suck, but if anderson produces like his last 200 ip. If nelson regains his final 146 ip form. If cobb gets that pitch back.

 

You are looking at 3 arms in the 3 era area. (2.75, 3.10, 2.85 respectively)

 

O.O

[clancyphile]

If they need to go higher, the additional money might be better spent when trying to get a TOR at the trade deadline.

 

Additional money and key prospects. A trade for a TOR starter at any point is either a lock or at least sets off the final series of events to lock in the fact that we've decided that our window is 2018-2021. I have a hard time seeing the Brewers do anything serious 3-4 years from now if we've depleted our upper-tier of prospects and most of our currently controlled players are going to be getting older or leaving in 2021.

 

Signing Cobb allows us to keep Burnes, Peralta, etc. for a potential future trade if we so choose or also as a backup option to either use in the next window of contention or as a wild card that maybe one of those guys develops into a stud.

 

We can all celebrate that Chris Archer is only getting paid $7.5 million the next few years when we likely are close to capped out anyways and have no future after the Archer years. There's more than just "X player is getting paid Y amount" in analysis.

 

I agree. I don't want to rebuild after 2021. I want to have the next wave of prospects hit and continue the dominance from 2018-2021 forward.

 

I want to find a Corbin Burnes or Troy Stokes every year. I'd love to pick up a six-year guy like Angel Ventura, who could be an excellent long-relief/back-end of the rotation guy. Let's find another Brent Suter or someone like him in the 31st round.

[Boomer5]

That pitches usage went from 35% in his 25-26 seasons to 14% last season. From a +15.6 run suppressor to a -5.2 run allower.

 

The whole era spike from 2.8 era to 3.65 is right there. That 1 pitch.

 

Ifs suck, but if anderson produces like his last 200 ip. If nelson regains his final 146 ip form. If cobb gets that pitch back.

 

You are looking at 3 arms in the 3 era area. (2.75, 3.10, 2.85 respectively)

 

O.O

 

Very cool analysis.

 

Every team in the league has this information and every team in the league is in the market for starting pitching to one degree or another. Moneyball changed the game from old guys with radar guns and stop watches to piles of data.

 

Our edge is CC and DJ who have turned chicken stuff into chicken salad.

[wibadgers23]

Sign Cobb & Walker, keep Santana and go battle for the division!

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Nelson on DL

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

Gallardo/Suter

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

Very, very solid team!

 

Yeah that is one sweet line-up. I'm starting to warm up to the idea of just keeping Santana and signing a FA pitcher like Cobb and then trading for a pitcher at the deadline if necessary.

[TJseven7]

That pitches usage went from 35% in his 25-26 seasons to 14% last season. From a +15.6 run suppressor to a -5.2 run allower.

 

The whole era spike from 2.8 era to 3.65 is right there. That 1 pitch.

 

Ifs suck, but if anderson produces like his last 200 ip. If nelson regains his final 146 ip form. If cobb gets that pitch back.

 

You are looking at 3 arms in the 3 era area. (2.75, 3.10, 2.85 respectively)

 

O.O

 

Very cool analysis.

 

Every team in the league has this information and every team in the league is in the market for starting pitching to one degree or another. Moneyball changed the game from old guys with radar guns and stop watches to piles of data.

 

Our edge is CC and DJ who have turned chicken stuff into chicken salad.

 

Absolutely, and when you read the fangraphs articles and see that cobb is thinking in the same analytical line as our program, and that he is looking to find the reason that pitch isn't working, and that he was smart enough to scrap it to save results, it makes you think his talent isn't his strongest asset. It's his mind. To not have your out pitch at all and still pull a 3.66 is incredible. Working with Johnson and our analytics department could be very appealing to him.

 

Teams all know this so he's not coming in at a sub market value but you also have to consider the fact that if he had the pitch last year he'd be a lot closer to Yu or at least not seen as inferior to Arrieta. If he's bought at 2017 production than 2013-2014 production then he could find the pitch and immediately become worth more than his contract.

 

The dream of nelson healthy at his last season form. Anderson in his last 200 form, cobb with "the thing," and Davies late season (as his era is in the 3.55 range after his early season chaos 2016-2017 first 3 and 4 starts) as the 1-4 in the playoffs is very hope inspiring. 3, 3, 3, 3.5 and a strong pen... its not sherzer gio strasburg but its pretty hard to beat.

[JCREW]

 

Very cool analysis.

 

Every team in the league has this information and every team in the league is in the market for starting pitching to one degree or another. Moneyball changed the game from old guys with radar guns and stop watches to piles of data.

 

Our edge is CC and DJ who have turned chicken stuff into chicken salad.

 

I think you value chicken salad more highly than I do.