Wade Davis to Rockies - 3 years/$52M

[jerichoholicninja]

Another loss for the Cubs. Although if they really wanted him back I think they would have resigned him already.

[mlloyd10]

But *** are the Rockies doing - They now have guaranteed $106M to relief pitchers this winter.

[bill hAll Star]

But *** are the Rockies doing - They now have guaranteed $106M to relief pitchers this winter.

 

Their solid rotation is all in pre-arbitration. They are nearing the end of the Arenado/Blackmon era (Blackmon is overrated, but still valuable). All of the guarantees are short. I don't have a problem with it.

[KeithStone53151]

Holy mackerel. This contract is so ridiculous, especially for a closer on the fringe of the top 10 at best. 3/52 with a vesting option that could push it to 4/66.

 

I honestly don't think the Cubs are planning to target a high end bullpen arm. I think they intend to have Morrow close with Edwards/Strop/Wilson as backup options. They are probably more likely to make a splash in the SP market, as that is where their team is weakest.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Holy smokes that's an absurd contract.

[bill hAll Star]

Like this move for the Rockies due to 3 years (he'd earn the vesting option if he really got it). They will be paying a good rotation and probably 6-7 position players (Story, Rodgers, McMahon, Dahl, Tapia, maybe Murphy) next nothing.

 

They can pay Arenado, Blackmon, and 4 top relievers an average of $15 million/year and have a nimble payroll over the next few years.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm not a big believer in Davis and agree this contract is absurd. His FIP last year was more than a run higher than his ERA. I wish the Cubs would have kept him. He was on fumes at the end of 2017 and generally can't be used more than 2 days in a row. A couple of his saves at the end of the season were finished with catches up against the wall and we saw Arcia and Shaw take him deep in back to back innings. Rockies are paying the guy that posted a 0.94 ERA in 2015. He's not that guy anymore. He's already 32. If they don't win, good luck moving that contract.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Thank you David for staying away from these ridiculous contracts. This is just absurd.

[bill hAll Star]

The Rockies 7 starting pitchers that are effective, in 2020 will make $25-30 million combined (Anderson, Senzatela, Marquez, Pint, Hoffman, Bettis, Gray).

 

They don't need to spend anywhere else, really other than to try to keep Blackmon and Arenado if they want to.

 

I agree that in terms of value it may not equal out, but this is one that if the owner wants to spend it, it's not going to kill their long-term outlook.

[KeithStone53151]

The Rockies 7 starting pitchers that are effective, in 2020 will make $25-30 million combined (Anderson, Senzatela, Marquez, Pint, Hoffman, Bettis, Gray).

 

They don't need to spend anywhere else, really other than to try to keep Blackmon and Arenado if they want to.

 

I agree that in terms of value it may not equal out, but this is one that if the owner wants to spend it, it's not going to kill their long-term outlook.

 

That's generally fair, but what if some of these bullpen pitchers struggle? What if one or two of their young starters regresses or doesn't work out or gets injured? Same with position players. Spending too much now handicaps their ability to spend to fix issues over the next couple years. The Brewers for example project to around $75 million depending on arbitration and Logan's contract. If we start the year around there and are in it at the deadline, heck we could trade for Hamels and his likely significant contract without blinking an eye. Or if we need to look to free agency or take on contract in a trade in 2018, we can do that. The Rockies, yeah not so much. They are doing all their shopping for the next couple years right now.

 

I can see the argument for the Rockies to spend a bit on short term deals, and I thought their moves were generally prudent and wise up until this signing. This is the one that I feel pushed them to the point of going overboard with their payroll.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Rockies 7 starting pitchers that are effective, in 2020 will make $25-30 million combined (Anderson, Senzatela, Marquez, Pint, Hoffman, Bettis, Gray).

 

They don't need to spend anywhere else, really other than to try to keep Blackmon and Arenado if they want to.

 

I agree that in terms of value it may not equal out, but this is one that if the owner wants to spend it, it's not going to kill their long-term outlook.

 

Did you forget LeMahiu? Arenado will get Harper/Stanton kind of money. I don't think the Rockies can afford that level no matter how little they are paying their starters. You also failed to mention Freeland among their pitchers.

[bill hAll Star]

The Rockies 7 starting pitchers that are effective, in 2020 will make $25-30 million combined (Anderson, Senzatela, Marquez, Pint, Hoffman, Bettis, Gray).

 

They don't need to spend anywhere else, really other than to try to keep Blackmon and Arenado if they want to.

 

I agree that in terms of value it may not equal out, but this is one that if the owner wants to spend it, it's not going to kill their long-term outlook.

 

That's generally fair, but what if some of these bullpen pitchers struggle? What if one or two of their young starters regresses or doesn't work out or gets injured? Same with position players. Spending too much now handicaps their ability to spend to fix issues over the next couple years. The Brewers for example project to around $75 million depending on arbitration and Logan's contract. If we start the year around there and are in it at the deadline, heck we could trade for Hamels and his likely significant contract without blinking an eye. Or if we need to look to free agency or take on contract in a trade in 2018, we can do that. The Rockies, yeah not so much. They are doing all their shopping for the next couple years right now.

 

I can see the argument for the Rockies to spend a bit on short term deals, and I thought their moves were generally prudent and wise up until this signing. This is the one that I feel pushed them to the point of going overboard with their payroll.

 

In 2019, the Rockies have everyone that matters sans Blackmon signed for about $70 million. I wouldn't touch a Lemahieu extension/signing. Their payroll is $130 million right now. Throw in $10 million of guys to fill the roster and $25 million for Blackmon and that's $100 million.

 

2020 would be interesting if they also wanted to keep Arenado. If ownership wants to pay it, I think their payroll gets manageable again after that.

 

I agree that it does tighten up the rainy day fund, but I guess my concern as a fan is that if these signings crashed and burned and Arenado/Blackmon left that my team would be in dire financial straits. If that happened, they're going to be overpaying a few relievers for 2021 as they likely rebuild with the Arenado trade haul (they'd hope) and still have their pitching intact.

[bill hAll Star]

The Rockies 7 starting pitchers that are effective, in 2020 will make $25-30 million combined (Anderson, Senzatela, Marquez, Pint, Hoffman, Bettis, Gray).

 

They don't need to spend anywhere else, really other than to try to keep Blackmon and Arenado if they want to.

 

I agree that in terms of value it may not equal out, but this is one that if the owner wants to spend it, it's not going to kill their long-term outlook.

 

Did you forget LeMahiu? Arenado will get Harper/Stanton kind of money. I don't think the Rockies can afford that level no matter how little they are paying their starters. You also failed to mention Freeland among their pitchers.

 

Lemahieu is terrible (hyperbole, but he's barely over a replacement-level player). They have Rodgers to fill in there and it would be instantly one of the worst contracts in MLB history if they signed Lemahieu to what he "deserves" given inflated Coors numbers.

 

Away from Coors in his career: .270/.313/.351./.669.

 

He's barely better than current-day Eric Sogard.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Young pitching is fickle, and counting on too much of it to contend over an extended stretch while it's cheap to have budget to blow elsewhere is a recipe for very inconsistent seasons...just ask the mets. Add in the fact that it's colorado, where good pitching dies, and this strategy is even a bigger risk.

 

There is nothing that justifies throwing 17 million per year for 3 seasons to a reliever on the wrong side of 30, particularly when he is not hands down the best closer in the game. Not even close to it, actually.

 

Is there any way other team owners can file a grievance against the rockies for colluding with the players union to unduly drive up player contract costs? Only sorta kidding...

[bill hAll Star]

Young pitching is fickle, and counting on too much of it to contend over an extended stretch while it's cheap to have budget to blow elsewhere is a recipe for very inconsistent seasons...just ask the mets. Add in the fact that it's colorado, where good pitching dies, and this strategy is even a bigger risk.

 

There is nothing that justifies throwing 17 million per year for 3 seasons to a reliever on the wrong side of 30, particularly when he is not hands down the best closer in the game. Not even close to it, actually.

 

Is there any way other team owners can file a grievance against the rockies for colluding with the players union to unduly drive up player contract costs? Only sorta kidding...

 

If their young pitching actually is fickle and stinks, their payroll doesn't matter in 2019 or 2020. They'd be in the midst of another long rebuild.

 

They could pay Davis, Shaw, and McGee a combined $30 million to be bullpen catchers and field their $90 million payroll while they win 70 games.

[Fear The Chorizo]

True, so then there is absolutely no reason to use it as an argument to justify paying 17 million a year for a reliever through 2020.

[MrTPlush]

David Lemahieu is nowhere near being Eric Sogard. He has been way better away from Coors the last two years. He also plays surperior defense. You can think his number are highly inflated due to Coors and not like him, but no need for questionable comparisons.

[bill hAll Star]

True, so then there is absolutely no reason to use it as an argument to justify paying 17 million a year for a reliever through 2020.

 

They had a Wild Card team that was driven by a deep staff of young, solid pitchers and their 2 offensive juggernauts are nearing the end of their deals. Why not throw some money out there if you have it?

 

One could argue that there are a few positions on the field where they should worry if the prospect will be good enough or if the starter is truly good enough, but bullpen is basically their only need.

[Lathund]

It's $17m for, at best, ~70 innings. I do think he's a very good pitcher, but at that price I'm glad he's not a Brewer.

[bill hAll Star]

David Lemahieu is nowhere near being Eric Sogard. He has been way better away from Coors the last two years. He also plays surperior defense. You can think his number are highly inflated due to Coors and not like him, but no need for questionable comparisons.

 

He's a solid defender at 2B, but about the only compliment you can give is that he's the perfect Coors hitter. High contact guy that controls the bat well to absolutely dominate the cavernous outfields to an insanely high batting average at Coors.

 

If we think Sogard is the ~.275 hitter with an excellent OBP that he demonstrated last year, then that is what DJ is. Sogard probably would be better at getting on base, but DJ is a better defender.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Why not save that money and use it towards retaining their premier offensive players approaching free agency in future years, or extend some of their young pitching to buy out a few years of free agency to lengthen their competitive window? There are countless better ways to spend $ on players compared to wildly overpaying for a bullpen. Contracts like this not only impact the team who issued it, they impact every team's future payroll by setting new market goalposts. That's the biggest problem I have with this contract, longterm it prices a team like the brewers even farther from both signing impact free agent talent but also from retaining premier homegrown/acquired talent through their prime years.

 

Good on Davis and his representation for finding a team dumb enough to give him that contract.

[KeithStone53151]

David Lemahieu is nowhere near being Eric Sogard. He has been way better away from Coors the last two years. He also plays surperior defense. You can think his number are highly inflated due to Coors and not like him, but no need for questionable comparisons.

 

He's a solid defender at 2B, but about the only compliment you can give is that he's the perfect Coors hitter. High contact guy that controls the bat well to absolutely dominate the cavernous outfields to an insanely high batting average at Coors.

 

If we think Sogard is the ~.275 hitter with an excellent OBP that he demonstrated last year, then that is what DJ is. Sogard probably would be better at getting on base, but DJ is a better defender.

 

I'm not going to try and argue that Sogard is better than Lemahieu, because he isn't. But strictly looking at defense, Sogard is a much better defender than either of you are giving him credit for. Extremely consistent, made 3 errors last year. 2 at 2b and none at SS despite 160 innings there. He graded out as a positive WAR player defensively for what that's worth, he definitely passed the eye test as a solid defender for me as well.

 

I'm expecting Sogard to regress a bit from his stat line last year, so Lemahieu is clearly better...but from a defensive standpoint it's definitely closer than either of you think.

[bill hAll Star]

Why not save that money and use it towards retaining their premier offensive players approaching free agency in future years, or extend some of their young pitching to buy out a few years of free agency to lengthen their competitive window? There are countless better ways to spend $ on players compared to wildly overpaying for a bullpen. Contracts like this not only impact the team who issued it, they impact every team's future payroll by setting new market goalposts. That's the biggest problem I have with this contract, longterm it prices a team like the brewers even farther from both signing impact free agent talent but also from retaining premier homegrown/acquired talent through their prime years.

 

Good on Davis and his representation for finding a team dumb enough to give him that contract.

 

Because they can literally do everything you said while also paying Davis, one would assume.

 

It could cost them if they're in it and some team offers Cole Hamels as somebody said earlier, but the list of players that have too big of a contract and could affect them is small.

 

I don't know who you are referring to that they could buy out years of to lengthen the competitive window. The only guys that qualify probably are Blackmon and Arenado and those guys are going to play this out into free agency. Their pitchers are all locked up for 4+ years (several of them 5 or 6). If they bought those guys out the $ wouldn't really come into play until well after Davis leaves anyways.

[KeithStone53151]

Why not save that money and use it towards retaining their premier offensive players approaching free agency in future years, or extend some of their young pitching to buy out a few years of free agency to lengthen their competitive window? There are countless better ways to spend $ on players compared to wildly overpaying for a bullpen. Contracts like this not only impact the team who issued it, they impact every team's future payroll by setting new market goalposts. That's the biggest problem I have with this contract, longterm it prices a team like the brewers even farther from both signing impact free agent talent but also from retaining premier homegrown/acquired talent through their prime years.

 

Good on Davis and his representation for finding a team dumb enough to give him that contract.

 

It's funny that I just mentioned in a different thread how these top free agents were setting ridiculous asking prices and hoping one dumb GM would make a bold(or stupid) move and pay near that asking price. I figured it would be Dombrowski or Epstein, but looks like this new Rockies GM is the guy.

 

Most of these contracts should clear before they impact the ability to sign their big free agents. Blackmon and Lemahieu's contracts could be backloaded a bit to ease the burden the first couple years. They probably can't afford Arenado and his likely 250 million or more regardless, so considering him is pointless. The problem for me is their ability to patch any holes in 2019 and 2020 if some players underperform. They generally seem stuck with what they have in the system and roster for the next couple years, they can only add by losing in other areas.

[bill hAll Star]

Why not save that money and use it towards retaining their premier offensive players approaching free agency in future years, or extend some of their young pitching to buy out a few years of free agency to lengthen their competitive window? There are countless better ways to spend $ on players compared to wildly overpaying for a bullpen. Contracts like this not only impact the team who issued it, they impact every team's future payroll by setting new market goalposts. That's the biggest problem I have with this contract, longterm it prices a team like the brewers even farther from both signing impact free agent talent but also from retaining premier homegrown/acquired talent through their prime years.

 

Good on Davis and his representation for finding a team dumb enough to give him that contract.

 

It's funny that I just mentioned in a different thread how these top free agents were setting ridiculous asking prices and hoping one dumb GM would make a bold(or stupid) move and pay near that asking price. I figured it would be Dombrowski or Epstein, but looks like this new Rockies GM is the guy.

 

Most of these contracts should clear before they impact the ability to sign their big free agents. Blackmon and Lemahieu's contracts could be backloaded a bit to ease the burden the first couple years. They probably can't afford Arenado and his likely 250 million or more regardless, so considering him is pointless. The problem for me is their ability to patch any holes in 2019 and 2020 if some players underperform. They generally seem stuck with what they have in the system and roster for the next couple years, they can only add by losing in other areas.

 

It's quite possible that if they're "a hole patched away" that ownership would allow it. They have a lot more money than you suggest next year and they went up to $155 million last year by the end of the season for their 40.

 

I think people need to look at baseball free agency with some nuance. There is too much: "smaller market, lots of money = this very bad" simple equations. We all get it.

 

Every casual baseball fan goes around and trumpets this idea as if they understand how it all works. Teams that aren't massive markets should not be living off of huge free agency deals, especially of guys over 30 and even the big markets get burned on value. But if you're a payroll nerd like I am, this deal totally makes sense. I wouldn't call this GM dumb.

 

Again, if some players underperform going into 2019 and 2020, they need to start over or at least retool anyways. The funny thing is that the money they'd have saved by not paying Davis very likely would be used to "patch a hole" by signing a similarly overpriced free agent in the Alex Cobb mold.