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I'll go with Odorizzi and Arietta. I think that is who they end up with. I think Salazar is a legit option too but I think it comes down to Odorizzi and Arietta. Darvish has to decide first though.
but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave
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With Darvish off the board, Arrieta has the most potential impact, but I'm scared of his cost and bust potential. At this point I'd be tempted to play it more conservative, sign Cobb and still try to get a Santana for Salazar deal finalized. Going into the season with Anderson, Salazar, Cobb, Davies, and Chacin would still be a significant upgrade, we hold onto Phillips, Woodruff, and Burnes, and maintain financial (and talent) flexibility for additional midseason maneuvering if needbe (ie. Nelson's comeback isn't going well, or there's an injury, or there's some other under-performance that needs addressing).
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Sign Jaime Garcia to make a run at the Wild Card if Nelson comes back healthy. We do not need to panic and try to compete in 2018 when our near-ready prospects (including virtually all of our top SP prospects) are a couple years away.
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It is called severe speculation with nothing to back it up.

 

Very Common? That is pretty generous. I am guessing our definitions are pretty far apart on that one.

 

Nah, it's human nature to value location more than a few extra million. It doesn't happen often in baseball because there's no salary cap and the most desirable destinations also are usually able to offer the most money, but in the rare instance where a less desirable market is also the highest bidder, it's not at all surprising. It happens all the time in the NBA, for example.

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It is called severe speculation with nothing to back it up.

 

Very Common? That is pretty generous. I am guessing our definitions are pretty far apart on that one.

 

Nah, it's human nature to value location more than a few extra million. It doesn't happen often in baseball because there's no salary cap and the most desirable destinations also are usually able to offer the most money, but in the rare instance where a less desirable market is also the highest bidder, it's not at all surprising. It happens all the time in the NBA, for example.

 

It's probably more about the team than the city. Darvish will probably spend 81 nights on a palatial zeppelin floating over the Chicago skyline and not much more.

 

Not surprising that Darvish would rather go to a recent World Series champion with a massive payroll rather than a quasi-rebuilding Wild Card contender that made a couple big moves, even assuming that scenario is accurate.

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It is called severe speculation with nothing to back it up.

 

Very Common? That is pretty generous. I am guessing our definitions are pretty far apart on that one.

 

Nah, it's human nature to value location more than a few extra million. It doesn't happen often in baseball because there's no salary cap and the most desirable destinations also are usually able to offer the most money, but in the rare instance where a less desirable market is also the highest bidder, it's not at all surprising. It happens all the time in the NBA, for example.

 

Well Darvish followed the money, so looks like location did win out. Not sure where the Dodgers ended up, but probably wasn’t terribly off.

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I hate using 3-yr data on Nelson and Anderson to tell me where they rank. They are different pitchers now under Johnson. I think we have a rare gem, like the Cards had for awhile. I truly believe that.

 

Absolutely. Johnson and Counsel are keepers for the long term. Like TL and Duncan.

 

I think we will have other pitchers mysteriously pitch above what projections have them at too. Just a feeling.

 

What's mysterious is how these incredibly credible projections have davies and anderson showing up for the worst season of their career this year. Also chacin one of his worst years. Bauer who's never lived up to his fip will surely be better despite never being sub 4. Multiple years of service... never sub 4.

 

I get how small sample size kills guys like pina santana etc. I don't get how you can project a dude with 3-4 years of service to have his worst year ever... when they aren't at an age of decline. Davies has never been over 4. Andersons coming off a brilliant year and a half and he's worse than ever by their numbers. Somethings broke.

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This might not be relevant, but keep in mind that the opening +/- for the brewer win total last year in Vegas was 68 1/2. I think it ended up around 70 1/2, but either way, professionals just seem to like to rag on the Wisconsin teams in general I think, except the packers. This type of projection does not surprise me. Also, last year I had projected the brewers at about 83 wins pre season, so I would've bet that over under if I was in Vegas lol
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FA Signings:

1. Sign Cobb: 4/$48

2. Sign Lucroy: 2/$16

3. Sign Walker: 2/$26

*This would add roughly $28M to this year's salaries putting them right around the $105-$110 mark. I believe this would still allow them to be a move come July if they have a hole needing to be upgraded.

 

Trades/Releases:

1. Trade Sogard or Villar, assign him to AAA in case of an injury if he would accept, or release him. *Saves $2.4M

2. Trade Thames *Saves $5M this year and future years

3. Vogt released *Saves $3.6M

Total Saved: $11M

 

Rotation:

1. Nelson when healthy

1. Anderson

2. Cobb

3. Davies

4. Chacin

5. Woodruff

 

Pen: Knebel, Hader, Albers, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter, Logan, Gallardo (Williams, Guerra(stretch out for SP?) to AAA)

 

Lineup:

1. Cain- CF

2. Yelich- LF

3. Braun- 1B

4. Shaw- 3B

5. Santana- RF

6. Walker- 2B

7. Lucroy/Pina- C

8. Arcia- SS

 

Bench: Phillips-OF, Perez-IF/OF, Villar or Sogard-IF, Pina/Lucroy-C,

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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FA Signings:

1. Sign Cobb: 4/$48

 

Have a strong feeling that number is way low.

Very possible but I just used what was predicted on the MLB link on the remaining free agents thread.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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I want cobb and I'll go to 60/4. Warming up on Luc at 14/2, with a 2nd year 1 mil buyout. Luc has to realize pina is going to play a bunch though. Adds 22 mil but subtracts 5.6 on vogt gallardo. Keeps the cap right around 110.

 

I can pass on the 2b with:

Cain yelich braun/santana shaw santana/thames pina/luc 2b arcia and I'm real tempted to bat 2b 9th.

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I want cobb and I'll go to 60/4. Warming up on Luc at 14/2, with a 2nd year 1 mil buyout. Luc has to realize pina is going to play a bunch though. Adds 22 mil but subtracts 5.6 on vogt gallardo. Keeps the cap right around 110.

 

I can pass on the 2b with:

Cain yelich braun/santana shaw santana/thames pina/luc 2b arcia and I'm real tempted to bat 2b 9th.

If Vogt's arm strength is back (which he said in a JS article) I would say keep him as the leftie bat then plays well with Pina. And it is cheaper! I would go a little higher for Cobb if needed, maybe 4/64, but no fifth year guarantee.

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FA Signings:

1. Sign Cobb: 4/$48

2. Sign Lucroy: 2/$16

3. Sign Walker: 2/$26

*This would add roughly $28M to this year's salaries putting them right around the $105-$110 mark. I believe this would still allow them to be a move come July if they have a hole needing to be upgraded.

 

Trades/Releases:

1. Trade Sogard or Villar, assign him to AAA in case of an injury if he would accept, or release him. *Saves $2.4M

2. Trade Thames *Saves $5M this year and future years

3. Vogt released *Saves $3.6M

Total Saved: $11M

 

R.

otation:

1. Nelson when healthy

1. Anderson

2. Cobb

3. Davies

4. Chacin

5. Woodruff

 

Pen: Knebel, Hader, Albers, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter, Logan, Gallardo (Williams, Guerra(stretch out for SP?) to AAA)

 

Lineup:

1. Cain- CF

2. Yelich- LF

3. Braun- 1B

4. Shaw- 3B

5. Santana- RF

6. Walker- 2B

7. Lucroy/Pina- C

8. Arcia- SS

 

Bench: Phillips-OF, Perez-IF/OF, Villar or Sogard-IF, Pina/Lucroy-C,

 

 

Walker isn't getting $13.5 million AVA. That's about $4.5 million too much. He'll get around $17 million over 2 years with a $7.5 million option and a $1 million buyout.

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FA Signings:

1. Sign Cobb: 4/$48

2. Sign Lucroy: 2/$16

3. Sign Walker: 2/$16 (it was supposed to be $16, not $26.

*This would add roughly $28M to this year's salaries putting them right around the $105-$110 mark. I believe this would still allow them to be a move come July if they have a hole needing to be upgraded.

 

Trades/Releases:

1. Trade Sogard or Villar, assign him to AAA in case of an injury if he would accept, or release him. *Saves $2.4M

2. Trade Thames *Saves $5M this year and future years

3. Vogt released *Saves $3.6M

Total Saved: $11M

 

Rotation:

1. Nelson when healthy

1. Anderson

2. Cobb

3. Davies

4. Chacin

5. Woodruff

 

Pen: Knebel, Hader, Albers, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter, Logan, Gallardo (Williams, Guerra(stretch out for SP?) to AAA)

 

Lineup:

1. Cain- CF

2. Yelich- LF

3. Braun- 1B

4. Shaw- 3B

5. Santana- RF

6. Walker- 2B

7. Lucroy/Pina- C

8. Arcia- SS

 

Bench: Phillips-OF, Perez-IF/OF, Villar or Sogard-IF, Pina/Lucroy-C,

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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