Pick One Available Free Agent

[coolhandluke121]

 

I'm a big fan of developing from within, but look no further than the packers to see you have to add talent to your roster from more avenues than simply developing your own players. We shouldn't sign a guy for sake of signing a guy, but I think we can find a reasonable value that significantly improves the roster.

 

If he's a clear upgrade with little injury history to speak of, a consistent record of production (I believe a lot of guys have a few good Villar-type years by accident and aren't really much better than 100's of other similar guys in recent memory), no signs of decline, and a reasonable expectation of remaining productive for most of the contract, then I'm fine with signing a guy as long as he's a decent value (and not "decent" relative to the old, inflated standards, but relative to this bear market).

 

Otherwise I'm just giving our guys a chance. I'm pretty bullish on guys like Villar, Sogard, Woodruff, Suter, Barnes, Chacin, Houser, Williams, and Drake combining for a good deal more WAR than most people are probably expecting, even if I can't say which ones of them will be good and which ones won't.

[KeithStone53151]

 

I'm a big fan of developing from within, but look no further than the packers to see you have to add talent to your roster from more avenues than simply developing your own players. We shouldn't sign a guy for sake of signing a guy, but I think we can find a reasonable value that significantly improves the roster.

 

If he's a clear upgrade with little injury history to speak of, a consistent record of production (I believe a lot of guys have a few good Villar-type years by accident and aren't really much better than 100's of other similar guys in recent memory), no signs of decline, and a reasonable expectation of remaining productive for most of the contract, then I'm fine with signing a guy as long as he's a decent value (and not "decent" relative to the old, inflated standards, but relative to this bear market).

 

Otherwise I'm just giving our guys a chance. I'm pretty bullish on guys like Villar, Sogard, Woodruff, Suter, Barnes, Chacin, Houser, Williams, and Drake combining for a good deal more WAR than most people are probably expecting, even if I can't say which ones of them will be good and which ones won't.

 

The guy you described doesn't exactly grow on trees, and if we do find him...he's gonna be extremely expensive. Some of the guys in next years class fit that category, wait and see the contracts they get. The Brewers have to take some chances and hope to get lucky. Welcome to the unfair game that is major league baseball.

[trwi7]

Why do we have to take chances? Nobody is forcing us to go out and overpay for a free agent.

[KeithStone53151]

Why do we have to take chances? Nobody is forcing us to go out and overpay for a free agent.

 

If we want to participate in free agency, we can't target the star type players that are perfect on paper. That's Bryce Harper, Machado, Donaldson, Blackmon, etc. We can't afford that. We have to hope to find value in guys with some warts. That or we can not participate at all and live with whatever we can develop ourselves.

[brewerfan82]

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

Here are where our current guys have stacked up and how they project for next year amongst some of the other potential acquisitions:

 

[pre]Player 3yr xFIP (Rnk) '17 xFIP (Rnk) '18 ZiPS FIP

--------- -------------- -------------- -------------

Archer 3.25 (12) 3.35 (17) 3.10

Arrieta 3.39 (16) 4.11 (51) 3.94

Stroman 3.49 (21) 3.58 (24) 3.47

Darvish 3.50 (22) 3.65 (29) 3.22

Paxton 3.51 (24) 3.25 (9) 3.00

Salazar 3.51 (25) 3.26 (10) 3.48

.

.

.

Corbin 3.94 (47) 3.88 (38) 4.18

Bauer 4.00 (66) 3.61 (26) 3.79

Nelson 4.04 (71) 3.15 (5) 3.79

Davies 4.18 (93) 4.42 (85) 4.06

Cobb 4.26 (106) 4.24 (69) 4.00

Duffy 4.31 (109) 4.39 (84) 3.86

Lynn 4.34 (118) 4.75 (111) 4.25

Anderson 4.42 (127) 4.33 (75) 4.48

Odorizzi 4.47 (132) 5.10 (139) 4.35

Chacin 4.50 (139) 4.54 (99) 4.77[/pre]

 

Not super convincing for a playoff hopeful team.

 

So, if I get to grab any free agent, it's Darvish. And then I'm seeing if I can get that Archer deal to go through. If that can't get worked out, I'm trying to get a Santana for Salazar trade to work. If that's a no-go, I consider Corbin or Bauer if it's done around a Broxton-like price (doubt Bauer is available for that price, but would consider Corbin). And if none of those workout, I go into the season with Yu powering the rotation, hope Seattle and/or Toronto become sellers, and try to throw the farm at them for Stroman or Paxton at the deadline.

[superfly]

Darvish, pay through the nose and get it done.

[brooks_quichenick]

Darvish, pay through the nose and get it done.

[MrTPlush]

Darvish, pay through the nose and get it done.

 

If he will go for it. If the eventual winning price we can have him for is say $130mil I would just do it. We have already offered over $100mil so just bite the bullet and give this team an ace talent.

[Boomer5]

Most have focused hard on Stearns when the real star of the Brewers managmemt team has been CC and his coaching staff.

 

Stearns has given CC a whole lot of junk and still he has developed a team of guys who consistently outperform their career norms and expected arc.

 

This is the first offseason where Stearns has tried to give him real talent in Cain and Yelich. The problem is the pitching staff desperately needs a TOR arm and those guys are super difficult to acquire. Darvish does qualify but he clearly wants to play in a glamorous city and is expecting a Keshaw payday not a Homer Bailey payday.

 

If the question is which FA available is the best fit for the Brewers win now at all costs mode, then the only answer is Darvish. However that isn't realistic. So the next guy up is Cobb who has solid results in the AL East and would be a quality arm to add. He just isn't a guy that you want to take the mound in a winner take all game after giving you 200 quality innings, but that guy isn't available in the FA market.

[ougiqbxy]

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

Here are where our current guys have stacked up and how they project for next year amongst some of the other potential acquisitions:

 

[pre]Player 3yr xFIP (Rnk) '17 xFIP (Rnk) '18 ZiPS FIP

--------- -------------- -------------- -------------

Archer 3.25 (12) 3.35 (17) 3.10

Arrieta 3.39 (16) 4.11 (51) 3.94

Stroman 3.49 (21) 3.58 (24) 3.47

Darvish 3.50 (22) 3.65 (29) 3.22

Paxton 3.51 (24) 3.25 (9) 3.00

Salazar 3.51 (25) 3.26 (10) 3.48

.

.

.

Corbin 3.94 (47) 3.88 (38) 4.18

Bauer 4.00 (66) 3.61 (26) 3.79

Nelson 4.04 (71) 3.15 (5) 3.79

Davies 4.18 (93) 4.42 (85) 4.06

Cobb 4.26 (106) 4.24 (69) 4.00

Duffy 4.31 (109) 4.39 (84) 3.86

Lynn 4.34 (118) 4.75 (111) 4.25

Anderson 4.42 (127) 4.33 (75) 4.48

Odorizzi 4.47 (132) 5.10 (139) 4.35

Chacin 4.50 (139) 4.54 (99) 4.77[/pre]

 

Not super convincing for a playoff hopeful team.

 

So, if I get to grab any free agent, it's Darvish. And then I'm seeing if I can get that Archer deal to go through. If that can't get worked out, I'm trying to get a Santana for Salazar trade to work. If that's a no-go, I consider Corbin or Bauer if it's done around a Broxton-like price (doubt Bauer is available for that price, but would consider Corbin). And if none of those workout, I go into the season with Yu powering the rotation, hope Seattle and/or Toronto become sellers, and try to throw the farm at them for Stroman or Paxton at the deadline.

 

+1

 

These are my thoughts that I couldn't express as well.

 

I would think Bauer needs quite a bit more and he would be my guy after Salazar. I would put Teheran in the Corbin mix and add Fullmer to the Stroman/Paxton deadline candidates.

[pacopete4]

I hate using 3-yr data on Nelson and Anderson to tell me where they rank. They are different pitchers now under Johnson. I think we have a rare gem, like the Cards had for awhile. I truly believe that.

[Boomer5]

I hate using 3-yr data on Nelson and Anderson to tell me where they rank. They are different pitchers now under Johnson. I think we have a rare gem, like the Cards had for awhile. I truly believe that.

 

Absolutely. Johnson and Counsel are keepers for the long term. Like TL and Duncan.

[pacopete4]

I hate using 3-yr data on Nelson and Anderson to tell me where they rank. They are different pitchers now under Johnson. I think we have a rare gem, like the Cards had for awhile. I truly believe that.

 

Absolutely. Johnson and Counsel are keepers for the long term. Like TL and Duncan.

 

I think we will have other pitchers mysteriously pitch above what projections have them at too. Just a feeling.

[coolhandluke121]

The guy you described doesn't exactly grow on trees, and if we do find him...he's gonna be extremely expensive. Some of the guys in next years class fit that category, wait and see the contracts they get. The Brewers have to take some chances and hope to get lucky. Welcome to the unfair game that is major league baseball.

 

Or you can just be smarter than other teams and scout more effectively and carefully, regularly acquiring guys who the market undervalues and trusting the process to pay off in the long run even if you don't hit on everyone. Which is exactly what the Brewers did to get here in the first place, and exactly what they should (and will) continue to do, as long as Mark A doesn't steer them the way of the impatient casual fan again.

 

No way on Darvish. NO WAY. Can't believe anyone would want him now that Heyman confirmed he doesn't want to be in Milwaukee unless they pay a premium (which was pretty obvious anyway if you read between the lines, but now with confirmation it should be a 100% deal-breaker). I would rather give that spot to a younger, less entitled, cheaper player with something to prove who deserves an opportunity.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

No way on Darvish. NO WAY. Can't believe anyone would want him now that Heyman confirmed he doesn't want to be in Milwaukee unless they pay a premium (which was pretty obvious anyway if you read between the lines, but now with confirmation it should be a 100% deal-breaker). I would rather give that spot to a younger, less entitled, cheaper player with something to prove who deserves an opportunity.

 

This idea is so overblown, it's starting not to be funny anymore. These guys are professional athletes. Millionaires. They follow the money. This isn't the 1970s where teams sent malcontents to the Packers as punishment.

 

Darvish hasn't signed because he hasn't received an offer he feels is sufficient enough yet. That's the long and short of it.

 

And Heyman's report, if you read it, is COMPLETE speculation.

[brewerfan82]

No way on Darvish. NO WAY. Can't believe anyone would want him now that Heyman confirmed he doesn't want to be in Milwaukee unless they pay a premium (which was pretty obvious anyway if you read between the lines, but now with confirmation it should be a 100% deal-breaker).

Is that based on this line in his latest notes?

 

There is reason to believe that Darvish might prefer the Rangers, (a long shot), Dodgers (a bigger long shot) or Cubs, so Milwaukee may have to go the extra mile in this case, especially if Darvish factors comfort into the equation.

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-what-is-red-soxs-backup-plan/

 

If that makes you "NO WAY" want a free agent, you're not going to get many free agents. If there's some other information Heyman revealed that I missed, would love to hear the scoop!

[jjfanec]

No way on Darvish. NO WAY. Can't believe anyone would want him now that Heyman confirmed he doesn't want to be in Milwaukee unless they pay a premium (which was pretty obvious anyway if you read between the lines, but now with confirmation it should be a 100% deal-breaker). I would rather give that spot to a younger, less entitled, cheaper player with something to prove who deserves an opportunity.

 

This idea is so overblown, it's starting not to be funny anymore. These guys are professional athletes. Millionaires. They follow the money. This isn't the 1970s where teams sent malcontents to the Packers as punishment.

 

Darvish hasn't signed because he hasn't received an offer he feels is sufficient enough yet. That's the long and short of it.

 

And Heyman's report, if you read it, is COMPLETE speculation.

 

Exactly. If we wait for the free agent pitcher who wants to be in Milwaukee more than LA or NY we are going to be waiting a long time. I guess the Cubs and twins should pass on darvish too since he hasn't signed there yet either. Obviously he has a price he thinks he is worth and is willing to wait to see if he gets it. Nothing wrong with that. He holds the power right now. Why wouldn't he want until spring training if he doesn't think he is being offered what he is worth and why wouldn't he wait to see if the dodgers can clear space seeing as they are the best team in the nl

[coolhandluke121]

No way on Darvish. NO WAY. Can't believe anyone would want him now that Heyman confirmed he doesn't want to be in Milwaukee unless they pay a premium (which was pretty obvious anyway if you read between the lines, but now with confirmation it should be a 100% deal-breaker). I would rather give that spot to a younger, less entitled, cheaper player with something to prove who deserves an opportunity.

 

This idea is so overblown, it's starting not to be funny anymore. These guys are professional athletes. Millionaires. They follow the money. This isn't the 1970s where teams sent malcontents to the Packers as punishment.

 

Darvish hasn't signed because he hasn't received an offer he feels is sufficient enough yet. That's the long and short of it.

 

And Heyman's report, if you read it, is COMPLETE speculation.

 

It's not overblown, it's just straight-up common sense. There have been other reports that Yu strongly prefers to stay on the west coast, like so many Asians before him. They're much close to home there and they have much more developed Asian population centers.

 

Paying a premium for an aging starting pitcher is bad to begin with. Paying an extra premium because the guy doesn't want to be here would be mind-numbingly foolish. And all signs indicate that they would have to pay a lot more than teams like the Dodgers or Rangers, which is common sense since where you live and work is pretty damn important when you have such a strong preference.

[coolhandluke121]

 

If that makes you "NO WAY" want a free agent, you're not going to get many free agents. If there's some other information Heyman revealed that I missed, would love to hear the scoop!

 

Plenty of free agents would want to play in Milwaukee. It's a great place in summer and they're a respected organization. They have no issues like the Bucks. Aramis Ramirez was one of the best free agents available when they signed him and he took a discount because he wanted to be in Milwaukee.

 

And as long as they keep going after the guys who are being under-valued by the market, which is what they should do, they will be able to entice plenty of free agents by making the best offer, even if those guys did have a slight (but not Yu-sized) preference for a different market.

[jjfanec]

 

If that makes you "NO WAY" want a free agent, you're not going to get many free agents. If there's some other information Heyman revealed that I missed, would love to hear the scoop!

 

Plenty of free agents would want to play in Milwaukee. It's a great place in summer and they're a respected organization. They have no issues like the Bucks. Aramis Ramirez was one of the best free agents available when they signed him and he took a discount because he wanted to be in Milwaukee.

 

And as long as they keep going after the guys who are being under-valued by the market, which is what they should do, they will be able to entice plenty of free agents by making the best offer, even if those guys did have a slight (but not Yu-sized) preference for a different market.

 

Aramis Ramirez was 34 years old when he signed with the Brewers and signed for 3 years 36 million. He is not a comparison Yu Darvish. Yu was and is the number 1 free agent target according to pretty much everyone. Ramirez was between the 8th and 15th biggest free agents that year. No one is saying we cant get players like Ramirez. It is top end pitchers and guys seeking long term deals.

[Boomer5]

We aren't getting Darvish. We have apparently made the top offer and he hasn't signed.

 

He has given every reasonable indication that he wants to play for a glamour city.

[MrTPlush]

We aren't getting Darvish. We have apparently made the top offer and he hasn't signed.

 

He has given every reasonable indication that he wants to play for a glamour city.

 

So? If he doesn't feel like the offer is high enough he isn't going to take it. You don't think our offer has been matched or close to it by a glamour city?

 

Except the fact he hasn't signed with a glamour city either.

[coolhandluke121]

We aren't getting Darvish. We have apparently made the top offer and he hasn't signed.

 

He has given every reasonable indication that he wants to play for a glamour city.

 

So? If he doesn't feel like the offer is high enough he isn't going to take it. You don't think our offer has been matched or close to it by a glamour city?

 

Except the fact he hasn't signed with a glamour city either.

 

They're not mutually exclusive. It seems very likely that he's waiting for better offers from everyone, and that whatever the Brewers offer has to be more than several other teams because he doesn't really want to be there. It's common sense. Once players have earned as much as he has, it's very common for them to accept less money to go somewhere they want to be. That's not even remotely controversial.

 

They don't even need any more reasons to not want to sign this type of contract though, even if they only had to outbid everyone else by a few million.

[brewerfan82]

They're not mutually exclusive. It seems very likely that he's waiting for better offers from everyone, and that whatever the Brewers offer has to be more than several other teams because he doesn't really want to be there. It's common sense. Once players have earned as much as he has, it's very common for them to accept less money to go somewhere they want to be. That's not even remotely controversial.

 

They don't even need any more reasons to not want to sign this type of contract though, even if they only had to outbid everyone else by a few million.

Except for the main reason: At some point you need to get TOR pitching if you want to legitimately compete for the World Series.

 

Darvish has racked up 19.3 WAR, a 3.42 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP in his career. Looking through the top 20 picks each year in the 48 year history of the Brewers, close to 1000 draft picks overall, the Brewers have managed to draft TWO starting pitchers that had a career WAR over 6 (that's not a typo), with an ERA below 4.00... Ben Sheets (3.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 23.4 WAR) and Yovani Gallardo (3.98 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 23.3 WAR). So unless you want to hope the next 50 years of drafting goes better and you luck into some TOR arms, the truth is the Brewers will likely need to overpay for some sure arms with money and/or prospects at some point.

[MrTPlush]

We aren't getting Darvish. We have apparently made the top offer and he hasn't signed.

 

He has given every reasonable indication that he wants to play for a glamour city.

 

So? If he doesn't feel like the offer is high enough he isn't going to take it. You don't think our offer has been matched or close to it by a glamour city?

 

Except the fact he hasn't signed with a glamour city either.

 

It's common sense.

 

Once players have earned as much as he has, it's very common for them to accept less money to go somewhere they want to be. That's not even remotely controversial.

 

It is called severe speculation with nothing to back it up.

 

Very Common? That is pretty generous. I am guessing our definitions are pretty far apart on that one.