Pick One Available Free Agent

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

If you could pick one available free agent who would it be and why?

 

Addison Reed- The bullpen would be solidified and Hader's transition to the rotation would not leave the pen weak. If Hader stays in the pen a Reed, Hader and Knebel eight and ninth would be lights out.

[Devinep]

Neil Walker. There don’t seem to be a lot of teams searching for a 2B so maybe he’d only get a 2 year deal.

 

He had a 400 OBP as a Brewer and the inky reason he wasn’t the lead off hitter the team needed is that Counsell was too dumb to bat him there.

 

I also have my doubts about Billar returning to being a good player

[TooLiveBrew]

Neil Walker. There don’t seem to be a lot of teams searching for a 2B so maybe he’d only get a 2 year deal.

 

He had a 400 OBP as a Brewer and the inky reason he wasn’t the lead off hitter the team needed is that Counsell was too dumb to bat him there.

 

I also have my doubts about Billar returning to being a good player

I know this is a small sample (just 296 career PAs), but Miller Park has been Walker's best hitting venue, at least when you strip out ones where he has only a tiny amount of PAs. OPS+ of 128, with a line of .289/.361/.534/.895. There might be something to be said for his comfort level of hitting there.

 

A Walker/Perez platoon should give you decent offense from 2B. I guess the question is whether it's worth spending 2/$20M-ish to re-sign Walker, & not just see if Villar can rediscover his stroke.

 

My disclaimer is that I've liked Walker for a long time; always liked his PAs as a Pirate. I might not be unbiased here.

[JohnBriggs12]

Neil Walker. There don’t seem to be a lot of teams searching for a 2B so maybe he’d only get a 2 year deal.

 

He had a 400 OBP as a Brewer and the inky reason he wasn’t the lead off hitter the team needed is that Counsell was too dumb to bat him there.

 

I also have my doubts about Billar returning to being a good player

I know this is a small sample (just 296 career PAs), but Miller Park has been Walker's best hitting venue, at least when you strip out ones where he has only a tiny amount of PAs. OPS+ of 128, with a line of .289/.361/.534/.895. There might be something to be said for his comfort level of hitting there.

 

A Walker/Perez platoon should give you decent offense from 2B. I guess the question is whether it's worth spending 2/$20M-ish to re-sign Walker, & not just see if Villar can rediscover his stroke.

 

My disclaimer is that I've liked Walker for a long time; always liked his PAs as a Pirate. I might not be unbiased here.

 

You build a contender by eliminating as many of the "ifs" as possible and reducing the number of ifs that have to turn out positive to win. It won't cost them an arm and a leg to eliminate the one at 2B who's major league track record is one above average season out of 5 and shaky defense throughout. 2B isn't the only if position. CF is another. If Phillips or some combination of Phillips/Brinson or Broxton emerge to their potential that's a great thing. There are still ifs in the rotation and bullpen.

 

No doubt that Walker is still hoping to land a 3 year deal, but the longer he goes unsigned the less likely that is and then the Brewers become favorites to land his services.

 

My order preference is Phillips (.351 OBP in his first major league stint and .377 at AAA) leading off and Walker hitting 2nd. I'd be okay with that in reverse too, because having a man on first opens up the right side of the infield. I prefer Phillips because middle infield has to respect his ability to steal and Walker might be more effective executing the hit and run.

[JohnBriggs12]

If I could sign one available FA it would be Eric Hosmer. Yes the Brewers got decent production at 1B last year. But if you put the Brewers lineup next to the Cubs lineup, the spot on the field where the Cubs have the biggest edge is still 1B. Hosmer isn't quite in Rizzo's class but he's a fine all around hitter that won't strike out all that much which is one of the Brewers biggest issues. What do you do then with Thames? I'd have him split time in LF with Braun. With both players fresh, you should get 40 HR or more from your LF. Six years 120 million (what the Pads are reported ready to offer) for Hosmer is steep, but the Brewers have plenty of payroll room and by the time Hosmer's on the back half of that deal, Braun will be off the books.

[brewcrewdue80]

Im only repearing something I said previously but Lance Lynn. He performs to 3War value. Pitches healthy for full seasons. 200IP from him is better than the 4/5s of previous seasons. He wasnt pegged for more than 72mil and if so thats a safe bargain for 4 solid years of his production. Hes not like the Garza or Suppan signings or even Lohse as his production and health have been consistently better than those 3 (Suppan by A LOT) At this point, Chacin is your best bet to give 180IP next season. Lynn would give you that 185-200Expectation

[Lathund]

Hosmers career OPS is below what Aguilar and Thames combined for last season; it's close (111 for Hosmer vs 109 for Thames) to what Thames has for his career, including the less than great years in Toronto and Seattle. He does give you better defense and perhaps frees up a roster spot, but for $120m I'd want a much bigger upgrade than that. He's looking for a lot more than that $120m as well btw; remains to be seen what he'll actually sign for. The Thames/Aguilar platoon at first is fine. 1B needs to get better for a WS run, but it's not the most immediate area of need. See what Gatewood and Erceg (With Shaw at first in that case), and for that matter Aguilar, turn out like; if none of them look like the answer in a couple of years, then make a big splash there. But after the bigger areas of need have been adressed.

 

Hosmer is a good player and would make us better, but at the price quoted he's really not a FA I'd be looking to sign.

[jerichoholicninja]

Hosmers career OPS is below what Aguilar and Thames combined for last season; it's close (111 for Hosmer vs 109 for Thames) to what Thames has for his career, including the less than great years in Toronto and Seattle. He does give you better defense and perhaps frees up a roster spot, but for $120m I'd want a much bigger upgrade than that. He's looking for a lot more than that $120m as well btw; remains to be seen what he'll actually sign for. The Thames/Aguilar platoon at first is fine. 1B needs to get better for a WS run, but it's not the most immediate area of need. See what Gatewood and Erceg (With Shaw at first in that case), and for that matter Aguilar, turn out like; if none of them look like the answer in a couple of years, then make a big splash there. But after the bigger areas of need have been adressed.

 

Hosmer is a good player and would make us better, but at the price quoted he's really not a FA I'd be looking to sign.

 

Hosmer, at the price he's asking for, is not worth it for pretty much any team in baseball. Unless the Padres are truly serious about their dumbfounding pursuit of him, he's probably looking at signing a one year deal just before spring training and trying free agency again next year.

[3and2Fastball]

Arrieta - I believe he has plenty of great games left in him

[MadThinker88]

I'd gift them 1 of the top closers on the market: either Wade Davis or Greg Holland (whichever I could get cheaper).

 

Granted closer is not a major need at this point for the Brewers thanks to Corey Knebel & where things stand with the club. However, getting 1 of these 2 guys will deepen the bullpen and move Corey back to the late inning setup role.

 

In doing this I:

1) guard against a regression by Corey,

2) can possibly decrease the series of escalating salaries that Corey will get in the next few years,

3) protect myself in case of injury (to the signee or Corey), and

4) if the 2018 or 2019 season goes sideways I might have a chance to get a major prospect haul back if I then deal 1 of signee or Corey (like the deals made by NYY with Andrew Miller & Chapman in 2016).

[anglotiger]

For me, it's Darvish.

 

Darvish

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff (Gallardo, Suter and possibly Guerra competing in Spring Training, Nelson perhaps coming back later in the season and Ortiz/Burnes on the horizon)

 

That's pretty solid...

 

Why Darvish over Lynn and Arrieta? I have this (perhaps ridiculous) fantasy that having a star player from Japan might help the club a little financially. Plus no draft pick loss...

 

I hope that everyone who celebrated it had a great Christmas...!

[rickh150]

Arrieta

[Dave_Not_Here]

Addison Reed for me as well.

 

We have more than enough payroll flexibility for his signing, and would still maintain adequate flexibility after signing him.

 

This signing would allow the Brewers an opportunity to look at Hader for the rotation, or would give us a shutdown back of the bullpen. Reed also has closed some in the past, so if Knebel were to struggle or just simply need a game off now and again, we have Reed as a closing option in those situations.

[Eye Black]

I am skeptical that the Brewers are going to be able to acquire a player that produces as a top of the rotation starting pitcher through Free Agency this off-season. I am wary of both Arrieta and Lynn, and I don't think their odds of landing Darvish are very good.

 

Next year's FA class has more possibilities, but you have to believe they have a realistic shot at landing someone projected to be in the top tier of starting pitching free agents next off-season. The top of the market following the 2018 season currently appears to be Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, and David Price (if he opts out). Some potentially good options will be available, although I would guess at least one of those guys will also look less attractive by next off-season.

 

I haven't yet fully convinced myself I would necessarily have the guts to do this... but one other intriguing approach the Brewers could take is to sign Lorenzo Cain to a 4-5 year deal and then use their outfield prospects as the primary carrot to acquire a front of the rotation starter such as Chris Archer. I would hate to part with Lewis Brinson as much as anyone, but it seems like any deal for a Chris Archer type pitcher would almost assuredly need to include Brinson. I think the odds of Cain being as good or better than Brinson's production over the next few years is higher than the odds of a pitcher they acquire through free agency being better than Chris Archer's next four seasons.

[TJseven7]

Addison as well. Not the same reasons but he'd be my add. Wicked arm for jigh leverage situations. Putting him in the 8th with knebel in the 9th closes the door well. I'd leave hader in the pen in a non typical long man. Wouldn't eat junk innings. Could piggy back woodruff 4 or suter 5 and take the ball into the dugout. Try to get him 3-4 ip stints in high leverage situations (games close after 5-6 ip).

 

Anderson davies chacin can get to reed knebel often enough. The 7th would probably be needed (hope barnes steps back up, or jeffress to old form or just patchwork a 7th). Woodruff or suter to hader gives the pen a rest day. If the post season arrives... hader reed knebel is how wins are made.

[JohnBriggs12]

I am skeptical that the Brewers are going to be able to acquire a player that produces as a top of the rotation starting pitcher through Free Agency this off-season. I am wary of both Arrieta and Lynn, and I don't think their odds of landing Darvish are very good.

 

Next year's FA class has more possibilities, but you have to believe they have a realistic shot at landing someone projected to be in the top tier of starting pitching free agents next off-season. The top of the market following the 2018 season currently appears to be Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, and David Price (if he opts out). Some potentially good options will be available, although I would guess at least one of those guys will also look less attractive by next off-season.

 

I haven't yet fully convinced myself I would necessarily have the guts to do this... but one other intriguing approach the Brewers could take is to sign Lorenzo Cain to a 4-5 year deal and then use their outfield prospects as the primary carrot to acquire a front of the rotation starter such as Chris Archer. I would hate to part with Lewis Brinson as much as anyone, but it seems like any deal for a Chris Archer type pitcher would almost assuredly need to include Brinson. I think the odds of Cain being as good or better than Brinson's production over the next few years is higher than the odds of a pitcher they acquire through free agency being better than Chris Archer's next four seasons.

 

I increasingly have the feeling that Brewers will jump in late and grab Alex Cobb. It was supposed to be a mere formality that Cobb would end up with the Cubs, but he apparently has overpriced himself considerably. Eventually he's going to have to settle and the big boys will already have filled their needs. I'm not sure Stearns can pull the trigger on a big time trade, and Cobb will be out there for the taking. He's not going to get anywhere near $20 million per year, but I could see 4 years and $60 million. That's still an overpay for essentially a #3, but his value to the Brewers if they see themselves one arm short will be too much to resist.

[NievesNoNO]

Avila, if I'm going with a vet that has the biggest potential to out-earn a contract and to fall into the weird Daniel Murphy career progression. I know it makes 0 sense with the Vogt resigning.

 

Reed, if I"m going with with need for the current mlb roster

 

Darvish, if I'm going with "it's not my money so who cares I want the best arm available."

[superfly]

Darvish or Wade Davis.

[TJseven7]

Addison as well. Not the same reasons but he'd be my add. Wicked arm for jigh leverage situations. Putting him in the 8th with knebel in the 9th closes the door well. I'd leave hader in the pen in a non typical long man. Wouldn't eat junk innings. Could piggy back woodruff 4 or suter 5 and take the ball into the dugout. Try to get him 3-4 ip stints in high leverage situations (games close after 5-6 ip).

 

Anderson davies chacin can get to reed knebel often enough. The 7th would probably be needed (hope barnes steps back up, or jeffress to old form or just patchwork a 7th). Woodruff or suter to hader gives the pen a rest day. If the post season arrives... hader reed knebel is how wins are made.

 

Im off reed if davis just set the market... no thank you

[ougiqbxy]

I am skeptical that the Brewers are going to be able to acquire a player that produces as a top of the rotation starting pitcher through Free Agency this off-season. I am wary of both Arrieta and Lynn, and I don't think their odds of landing Darvish are very good.

 

Next year's FA class has more possibilities, but you have to believe they have a realistic shot at landing someone projected to be in the top tier of starting pitching free agents next off-season. The top of the market following the 2018 season currently appears to be Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, and David Price (if he opts out). Some potentially good options will be available, although I would guess at least one of those guys will also look less attractive by next off-season.

 

I haven't yet fully convinced myself I would necessarily have the guts to do this... but one other intriguing approach the Brewers could take is to sign Lorenzo Cain to a 4-5 year deal and then use their outfield prospects as the primary carrot to acquire a front of the rotation starter such as Chris Archer. I would hate to part with Lewis Brinson as much as anyone, but it seems like any deal for a Chris Archer type pitcher would almost assuredly need to include Brinson. I think the odds of Cain being as good or better than Brinson's production over the next few years is higher than the odds of a pitcher they acquire through free agency being better than Chris Archer's next four seasons.

 

I would have to go with Cain as well. I think 5 years/$80 million would get it done.

[badger3034]

In this hypothetical situation, I'm able to pick any available free agent regardless of price tag? Then I'm taking J.D. Martinez easily. This makes Santana much more expendable in my mind, and opens up your logjam in the outfield, with J.D. being an even more potent threat than Domingo. At that point, I'm willing to give up more prospects with a Santana package because your window has shortened so much. I'll give a package of Santana, Burnes and Erceg for Stroman if that would be enough.

 

Rotation when Jimmy comes back (if he's what he was last year):

Stroman

Jimmy

Chase

Davies

Chacin

 

Lineup:

1. Cain

2. Yelich

3. Braun (Phillips fills in randomly for any of these 3)

4. Martinez

5. Shaw

6. Villar

7. Pina

8. P

9. Arcia

 

That looks like a WS contender to me, I'm also ditching thames or aguilar in this scenario. I don't really care which one, you take your pick.

[coolhandluke121]

Chris Carter on a minor-league deal. That way they won't sign any terrible contracts or waste draft picks and will give opportunities to guys within the organization who deserve it. Also, he can be called up as the emergency platoon option if/when Braun is hurt so they don't have to waste a roster spot on Aguilar.

[MrTPlush]

Chris Carter on a minor-league deal. That way they won't sign any terrible contracts or waste draft picks and will give opportunities to guys within the organization who deserve it. Also, he can be called up as the emergency platoon option if/when Braun is hurt so they don't have to waste a roster spot on Aguilar.

 

Aren't you fun.

[coolhandluke121]

Chris Carter on a minor-league deal. That way they won't sign any terrible contracts or waste draft picks and will give opportunities to guys within the organization who deserve it. Also, he can be called up as the emergency platoon option if/when Braun is hurt so they don't have to waste a roster spot on Aguilar.

 

Aren't you fun.

 

The part about giving opportunities to guys within the organization (and reclamation projects) is key. That's how they got here in the first place. It would be incredibly foolish to sign a bad-value contract just because you think you "need" that guy, and you may still have the same need shortly after you sign him anyway. In fact, there's usually a pretty good chance of that with free agency. That's the type of mess they just got themselves out of, and there's no reason to abandon the principles that got you out of the mess so surprisingly fast in the first place. It's amazing to me that anyone would turn impatient right away. It's like having a bad hangover and vomiting all the time and drinking to the point where it's downright dangerous to your health, swearing it off - and then getting drunk again as soon as you feel a little better.

 

Stick with what got you here. Stearns is a an astute dude and I'm sure they will do just that unless a really good opportunity presents itself. Suter, Woodruff, Barnes, Houser, Guerra, Villar, Sogard, Broxton (1 option left) and even Drake all have shown enough glimpses to earn that opportunity. Aguilar has too, but unfortunately he doesn't have options and there's no room for him on the roster even if they trade Santana.

 

If Lucroy is a bargain, he might be the one name who flies under the radar and is worth it, but I admit I'm being a little sentimental (and not exactly bullish on Pina/Vogt).

[KeithStone53151]

Chris Carter on a minor-league deal. That way they won't sign any terrible contracts or waste draft picks and will give opportunities to guys within the organization who deserve it. Also, he can be called up as the emergency platoon option if/when Braun is hurt so they don't have to waste a roster spot on Aguilar.

 

Aren't you fun.

 

The part about giving opportunities to guys within the organization (and reclamation projects) is key. That's how they got here in the first place. It would be incredibly foolish to sign a bad-value contract just because you think you "need" that guy, and you may still have the same need shortly after you sign him anyway. In fact, there's usually a pretty good chance of that with free agency. That's the type of mess they just got themselves out of, and there's no reason to abandon the principles that got you out of the mess so surprisingly fast in the first place. It's amazing to me that anyone would turn impatient right away. It's like having a bad hangover and vomiting all the time and drinking to the point where it's downright dangerous to your health, swearing it off - and then getting drunk again as soon as you feel a little better.

 

Stick with what got you here. Stearns is a an astute dude and I'm sure they will do just that unless a really good opportunity presents itself. Suter, Woodruff, Barnes, Houser, Guerra, Villar, Sogard, Broxton (1 option left) and even Drake all have shown enough glimpses to earn that opportunity. Aguilar has too, but unfortunately he doesn't have options and there's no room for him on the roster even if they trade Santana.

 

If Lucroy is a bargain, he might be the one name who flies under the radar and is worth it, but I admit I'm being a little sentimental (and not exactly bullish on Pina/Vogt).

 

I'm a big fan of developing from within, but look no further than the packers to see you have to add talent to your roster from more avenues than simply developing your own players. We shouldn't sign a guy for sake of signing a guy, but I think we can find a reasonable value that significantly improves the roster.