2018 Pitching (Rotation and Bullpen)

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Guerra or Gallardo

Bullpen: Suter, Hader, Barnes, Jeffers, Williams, Barnes, Logan, Knebel

 

Piggyback Guerra/Gallardo and Woodruff with Suter and Hader until the rotation plays out. Suddenly, I kind of like it and there are options. If Chacin pitches to his ability and Guerra is healthy, I will be happy I renewed my ticket package. Chacin is a guy I've always liked and wish they acquired him at the deadline last season. I believe he may have been the one game out difference.

[liveforoctober]

I think the Brewers are going to give Jungmann every chance to make the opening day roster. Very good season in the minors last year and, if I am not mistaken, is out of options. Someone will grab him if we try to send him down.

[FVBrewerFan]

Can't we just change previous thread to 2018 Pitching? This thread seems redundant.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the Brewers are going to give Jungmann every chance to make the opening day roster. Very good season in the minors last year and, if I am not mistaken, is out of options. Someone will grab him if we try to send him down.

 

You could be right but I doubt it. I believe he's still around in hopes he can be useful in a deal. He's had a number of chances and he's 28. The Brewers have likely moved on. The fact he didn't get a call up in September after a fine AAA season proves it.

[TJseven7]

I think the Brewers are going to give Jungmann every chance to make the opening day roster. Very good season in the minors last year and, if I am not mistaken, is out of options. Someone will grab him if we try to send him down.

 

You could be right but I doubt it. I believe he's still around in hopes he can be useful in a deal. He's had a number of chances and he's 28. The Brewers have likely moved on. The fact he didn't get a call up in September after a fine AAA season proves it.

 

And I believe we did some BP games over giving him a shot. I like him I wanted to see them bring him up. He earned it in CS but the more time passes I feel like I must be wrong about him because they don't even want to try it. This years his last shot here. If he even gets one.

[markedman5]

Hughes to Reds

 

[TJseven7]

Kinda surprised we weren't in the mix at sub 2.5 mil a year. He was a quality piece in our pen. 3 era guys don't grow on trees, certainly not at that price. Obviously not the high leverage type and I get that jeffress and him are redundant but I believe there is room for 2 guys like that who are 6th inning solid arms. Barnes better bring 2016 barnes this year. Good scraps add for the reds.

[TJseven7]

Rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Guerra or Gallardo

Bullpen: Suter, Hader, Barnes, Jeffers, Williams, Barnes, Logan, Knebel

 

Piggyback Guerra/Gallardo and Woodruff with Suter and Hader until the rotation plays out. Suddenly, I kind of like it and there are options. If Chacin pitches to his ability and Guerra is healthy, I will be happy I renewed my ticket package. Chacin is a guy I've always liked and wish they acquired him at the deadline last season. I believe he may have been the one game out difference.

 

To the original topic...

 

Anderson davies chacin woodruff Guerra

 

Seems to be the best fit. Gallardo has great numbers in a small sample size as a reliever. The early game numbers look dreadful though. But Guerra, even in last years disaster was a 3.6 era guy thru 4 ip. That's a piggy back guy. You cuff him with Suter and thats interesting. Woodruff hader works as well. You can keep woodruff building towards 200 ip while not forcing the issue this year. Hader can "start" out of the pen and on days where he's grooving he can go 4 ip and close it out.

 

Leaves the pen at

Hader Suter Williams Barnes/Jeffress Knebel

 

Needs a loogey and an 8th inning arm. Barnes or Jeffress competing for the 7th. Willians set up to get innings but no need to drop him into leverage. Barnes can find 2016 again or sink. Logan and Addison sure would make this look cohesive. I really doubt that we add addison so the 8th is a big big issue. I really don't expect yo to stick unless barnes proves he can man the 8th. I wish we'd move FPeralta to the pen to start the year and see if he can blaze a path to mke by June.

 

The other issue is we are running 13 arms in that scenerio.

Pina Vogt, thames aguilar, villar sogard, arcia, shaw perez, braun broxton santana phillips. That's either a lot of villar perez in the OF and no broxton or perez who could be needed at 3b and 2b vs rhp is gone. 13 in the pen is rough with our braun issue and splits happy team. Probably would be best to add logan and an 8th inning guy and leave Williams down. Go with a short pen and hope the piggy back stuff gets you 8 or 9 clean ip more often than not.

 

And while I love the double piggy back idea... we are in the NL. Likely throwing an extra ab away per game unless you time it beautifully.

[FVBrewerFan]

Rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Guerra or Gallardo

Bullpen: Suter, Hader, Barnes, Jeffers, Williams, Barnes, Logan, Knebel

 

Piggyback Guerra/Gallardo and Woodruff with Suter and Hader until the rotation plays out. Suddenly, I kind of like it and there are options. If Chacin pitches to his ability and Guerra is healthy, I will be happy I renewed my ticket package. Chacin is a guy I've always liked and wish they acquired him at the deadline last season. I believe he may have been the one game out difference.

 

To the original topic...

 

Anderson davies chacin woodruff Guerra

 

Seems to be the best fit. Gallardo has great numbers in a small sample size as a reliever. The early game numbers look dreadful though. But Guerra, even in last years disaster was a 3.6 era guy thru 4 ip. That's a piggy back guy. You cuff him with Suter and thats interesting. Woodruff hader works as well. You can keep woodruff building towards 200 ip while not forcing the issue this year. Hader can "start" out of the pen and on days where he's grooving he can go 4 ip and close it out.

 

I don't think these piggyback arrangements work in the "real world." What if another starter has a bad start and you need a long reliever? Can't use him because he's scheduled to piggyback with Guerra two days later? Or Woodruff has a great start and Hader isn't used, so now Hade doesn't pitch for nine days?

 

We don't need 5 aces, but if Guerra can't consistently go more than 3-4 innings, he can't be in the rotation. Wilkerson is still a legit option as well.

[mrn1ceguy]

I agree the piggyback arrangement is unlikely to work unless you build your entire staff around these guys (aka, get 10 pitchers who go 4ip and then sprinkle in an ace and/or a couple closers). Based on our available talent pool right now, I think we will go heavy on good long relievers instead of your usually 3-4 middle relievers who can only go 1 inning a day. Something like the following to start the year:

 

 

Starters: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Hader

Long Relievers (should always be used in 2-3 inning spurts): Guerra, Suter, Gallardo

Closer: Knebel

Setup: Jeffress, Barnes, Williams (Ideally add a FA as your 8th inning guy and go 8-man bullpen)

 

 

The extra long relievers allow us to have multiple multi-inning pitchers to cover early season short starts from Woodruff/Hader or a bad day from a starter. Basically, if it's not the 7th or not a close game, a LR is getting the ball so we don't overburden our back-end relievers.

 

I also fully expect around the AS break for Nelson, Burnes or someone to be ready to start, allowing Hader to move into the bullpen after about 120 innings as a starter letting him finish the year pitching and still get to ~150 innings.

[TJseven7]

Rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Guerra or Gallardo

Bullpen: Suter, Hader, Barnes, Jeffers, Williams, Barnes, Logan, Knebel

 

Piggyback Guerra/Gallardo and Woodruff with Suter and Hader until the rotation plays out. Suddenly, I kind of like it and there are options. If Chacin pitches to his ability and Guerra is healthy, I will be happy I renewed my ticket package. Chacin is a guy I've always liked and wish they acquired him at the deadline last season. I believe he may have been the one game out difference.

 

To the original topic...

 

Anderson davies chacin woodruff Guerra

 

Seems to be the best fit. Gallardo has great numbers in a small sample size as a reliever. The early game numbers look dreadful though. But Guerra, even in last years disaster was a 3.6 era guy thru 4 ip. That's a piggy back guy. You cuff him with Suter and thats interesting. Woodruff hader works as well. You can keep woodruff building towards 200 ip while not forcing the issue this year. Hader can "start" out of the pen and on days where he's grooving he can go 4 ip and close it out.

 

I don't think these piggyback arrangements work in the "real world." What if another starter has a bad start and you need a long reliever? Can't use him because he's scheduled to piggyback with Guerra two days later? Or Woodruff has a great start and Hader isn't used, so now Hade doesn't pitch for nine days?

 

We don't need 5 aces, but if Guerra can't consistently go more than 3-4 innings, he can't be in the rotation. Wilkerson is still a legit option as well.

 

We had BP starts last year. I know what you are saying but I think it saves innings in one place and then costs innings in the situation you point to. Woodruff goes deep... Hader moves back a day and Suter gets used in another way. Thats why hader cuffs 4. Every 4-6 days he goes. Guerra you pull at 4 regardless. If we get a dud start from one of the top 3. Its going to likely be a loss anyway so williams eat innings or jeffress go 2. Loogey gets a full inning. You get out of it. There were not many times where we had an implosion and handed the ball to a long man for 3-4 IP last year anyway. We pieced it with the pen. Hader and suter can also go one if its a throw day between "starts."

 

But all in all you can't plan for the craziness of a long season. You plan for normalcy and you get through crazy. You can just as easily hit a good stretch when you never have a real use a long man for 2 weeks. He sits there doing nothing while 4 guys in your pen get all the work. He waits for the off chance you need to eat innings. Thats wasteful by plan. Then what if you get rocked early twice in a row. You can't prepare for that so don't. What ifs planning is not optimal.

 

However we run into multiple issues. Guerra suter havent proven they can go deep in games at this time. Woodruff shouldn't jump straight to 200 ip if healthy. Hader as a starter would tax the pen and likely be capled at 150. We got 4 guys who without something different would tax the pen every single turn. Or piggy back them and if more often than not it goes according to plan... alleviate that problem while ramping hader up towards a starters role. While massaging woodruffs workload... while getting something useful from Guerra and seeing if suter can continue to hang his stellar era. Flexibility and testing the waters over rigidness and what if worry.

 

Somethings gotta give with this bunch. If risky what ifs is the biggest hole its better than the alternative. You can't manage this group well and get all the answers without doing something creative.

[JohnBriggs12]

When Guerra was fully healthy in 2016, he averaged over 6 IP per start. He's the rotation wild card just as he was then.

 

Now everyone has Woodruff in the rotation and there's no doubt he'll start the year there, but he's got an option, so if 6-8 starts in he's struggling, he could find himself back in Colorado Springs in a worst case scenario. There's always the potential for injury or having whoever wins the 5th spot struggle too. Having Suter and Guerra start the year in the pen, and assuming they get fully stretched out in Arizona would allow Counsell to insert either one of them in that spot if need be early on. As the season goes on, and the benefit of the spring stretch-out wanes, if a rotation spot opens up, I think then we could see a piggy-back arrangement at least for a few starts involving those two.

[TJseven7]

Guerra when healthy pitched 20 starts and 121 ip. Was a great run. Has not looked durable at all. Got hurt in April. Came back in May early june with 15.2 and 2 er in 3 gs. Then fell apart and showed no signs of getting right the rest of the year. Why do people assume it was health? I know he got hurt... but he came back fine then imploded from mid june thru the seasons end. Why 3 guerra like starts then an implosion. If he got rehurt he'd be back on the dl... if he wasn't right when he cam back he wouldnt have been sub 2 for 3 starts.

[FVBrewerFan]

Guerra when healthy pitched 20 starts and 121 ip. Was a great run. Has not looked durable at all. Got hurt in April. Came back in May early june with 15.2 and 2 er in 3 gs. Then fell apart and showed no signs of getting right the rest of the year. Why do people assume it was health? I know he got hurt... but he came back fine then imploded from mid june thru the seasons end. Why 3 guerra like starts then an implosion. If he got rehurt he'd be back on the dl... if he wasn't right when he cam back he wouldnt have been sub 2 for 3 starts.

 

I don't think anyone's disagreeing he's a big question mark, regardless if that's because of health or anything else. That's why he's a wild card.

[KeithStone53151]

Guerra when healthy pitched 20 starts and 121 ip. Was a great run. Has not looked durable at all. Got hurt in April. Came back in May early june with 15.2 and 2 er in 3 gs. Then fell apart and showed no signs of getting right the rest of the year. Why do people assume it was health? I know he got hurt... but he came back fine then imploded from mid june thru the seasons end. Why 3 guerra like starts then an implosion. If he got rehurt he'd be back on the dl... if he wasn't right when he cam back he wouldnt have been sub 2 for 3 starts.

 

I don't think anyone's disagreeing he's a big question mark, regardless if that's because of health or anything else. That's why he's a wild card.

 

I tend to believe Guerra was more of a 1 year wonder than he all of a sudden found dynamic stuff at his age. It will be nice to have him in spring in case he's back to hitting mid 90s, but I'm not optimistic. He might work OK out of the bullpen if his fastball can play up, but I'm not so sure he can start at this level.

[DR28]

Really like that we're adding Logan to the pen, would like to see Reed added as well, but we'll see about that.

 

Locks so far...

Knebel

Hader

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

 

Honestly I wouldnt mind seeing us add someone like Lance Lynn to push Yo to the bullpen.

 

Anderson

Lynn

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Will definitely be interesting to see where the remaining arms end up.

[JohnBriggs12]

Guerra's line in a very small sample as a reliever could be behind the Brewer strategy this offseason:

 

6 1/3 innings with 12 K's and a 6 to 1 K to BB ratio. If you discount that he allowed 2 HR out of the pen, both in games they were well ahead and he was simply pounding the middle of the zone, he might turn out to be a very viable late inning guy. He can miss bats and his fastball in relief was up a couple ticks.

[KeithStone53151]

Guerra's line in a very small sample as a reliever could be behind the Brewer strategy this offseason:

 

6 1/3 innings with 12 K's and a 6 to 1 K to BB ratio. If you discount that he allowed 2 HR out of the pen, both in games they were well ahead and he was simply pounding the middle of the zone, he might turn out to be a very viable late inning guy. He can miss bats and his fastball in relief was up a couple ticks.

 

I'll add to your support. Guerra as a reliever in 2017, .617 OPS even with the 2 HR. Allowed 3 hits and 2 bb in 24 PA in 2017. As a starter in 2017, 1st PA of an outing 643 OPS, 2nd PA of an outing 856 OPS, 3rd PA of an outing 1178 OPS. These splits become much less drastic when looking at career numbers(2015-2017), but he was operating with more heat and better stuff those other 2 years.

 

I'm completely open to Guerra competing for a bullpen spot. I was before looking at these splits but even moreso now. We should have quite the competition in ST for the remaining 2-3 bullpen jobs, 2 if we sign someone else and 3 if we don't.

[JohnBriggs12]

Jimmy Nelson was on MLB Network's Hot Stove this morning and is very, very optimistic about his rehab, saying "The rehab is going just about as well as it possibly could", and added "I'm just really anxious to start a throwing program and get to spring training". Doesn't sound like a guy who's written off 2018.

 

Getting Nelson back for the 2nd half certainly can't be ruled out at this point, and who knows maybe even sooner. Time will tell, and the Brewers are correct in making moves assuming it will be later rather than sooner, but if he's healthy and throwing well, what a boost that would be.

[DR28]

Now that Logan has been added, I would really like us to add someone like Reed or Oh to setup Knebel.

 

Knebel

Hader

Reed/Oh

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

 

That would be a very nice bullpen!

[NOMAAM]

Now that Logan has been added, I would really like us to add someone like Reed or Oh to setup Knebel.

 

Knebel

Hader

Reed/Oh

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

 

That would be a very nice bullpen!

 

Reed won't happen. He's gonna get paid big bucks. Oh, David Hernandez, or Romo would look nice

[DR28]

Now that Logan has been added, I would really like us to add someone like Reed or Oh to setup Knebel.

 

Knebel

Hader

Reed/Oh

Barnes

Logan

Jeffress

 

That would be a very nice bullpen!

 

Reed won't happen. He's gonna get paid big bucks. Oh, David Hernandez, or Romo would look nice

 

Yea ur probably right, our focus is starters anyway.

 

Yes either of those 3 please!

[homer]

Apparently Nelson is way ahead of schedule and will start throwing next week:

 

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/jimmy-nelson-recovering-from-shoulder-injury/c-264718052