Brewers sign Jhoulys Chacin

[TooLiveBrew]

And if the young arms Clancy is citing prove ready, then you also have the ability to flip Chacin for more prospects.

 

Calling this "blowing $16M" is missing the forest for the trees.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Let's just look at the four guys:

As a starter, Suter posted a 3.45 ERA in 2017 over 70.1 innings. This was affected by a rotator cuff strain. In July, four of his five starts were at least six innings.

 

For the last two-three years, Suter's done a shuffle between the bullpen and the rotation. The last two years had him shuttling between Colorado Springs and Milwaukee. I don't anticipate the latter shuffle, but the former one can't be good for his ability to go six or seven innings a start. Suter's shown enough in the minors and in Milwaukee to have a spot in the rotation. I think that is he isn't doing that shuffle, he can get close to 180 IP this year.

 

Woodruff's 4.81 ERA in Milwaukee was a little more Garza-esque, but that's more because he got treated like a baby seal in his last start. In his first seven, he had a 3.76 ERA. He also regularly went 6 or 7 IP

 

Ventura... I think he's got potential. He posted a 4.06 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) at Colorado Springs. Not world-beating, but Josh Hader's ERA in that town was 5.37.

 

Derby... well, I can say the same things about him that I said about Ventura, only he had a 3.55 ERA in 12 starts at Colorado Springs.

 

All four of those guys look good, none gets more than league minimum. Jungmann, incidentally, posted great numbers at Colorado Springs (2,59 ERA in 17 games, 15 starts), and may be able to redeem himself as well.

 

The 2017 Brewers were an awesome ride. But with Nelson's injury, 2018 was the year to give young guns like this a shot, and to be willing to take a step back to being a 75 win team for 2018 (and maybe finding a gem or two for the rotation) instead of blowing $16 million over two years to maintain an 86-win team.

 

Honestly, the $16 million would have been better spent on bringing Neil Walker back to play second.

 

Chacin isn't going to put your beloved Suter in danger of not making the team. And if Suter proves to be one of the team's five best starting candidates, he'll be in the rotation. Chacin is what he is, a proven, durable mid-rotation starter, which is much more than what can be said for Suter, Woodruff, Ventura or Derby. I mean, I like all those guys too, and it is likely that two of the four (Suter and Woodruff) are going to play major roles from day 1 of the season. I think Derby is a darkhorse candidate for the bullpen. He's got a lot of Tyler Thornburg in him. I'm not as high on Ventura, but he's not a bad guy to have around as a depth piece.

 

Also, I agree that the team signing Chacin has nothing to do with their ability or need to sign Walker. I imagine Walker is looking for a 4-year deal, and the Brewers don't want to commit to that many years on a player who isn't exactly young anymore. I liked Walker as well, but Villar or Dubon does offer much, much more upside at that position.

[TJseven7]

It's really hard to believe this team would be any good with a starting rotation of Anderson Davies and insert 3 of Woodruff Suter Guerra Jungemann Wilkerson Ventura Derby. We tried that roller coaster last year with Garza Peralta Guerra Espino and turned to Suter when we lost Anderson... and got Woodruff and Anderson back when we lost nelson and suter. We didn't sign Fiers and I highly doubt we paid Gallardo or plan on putting him in the rotation. Without Nelson starting the year we are in a deep dark hole of uncertainty without someone like chacin who could be a big stabalizing force in that rotation. It's very unlikely we could throw that much stuff against the wall in our rotation without burying ourselves before we find the right mix.

 

Last year out of the gates had 3 who appeared to be guys we could trust. Suter saved the anderson injury. I don't think what are proposing even gets us back to that level. Not to mention we refuse to bat Walker where his bat belongs. So despite it not being a true trade off, if it were I'm still not taking a 2b upgrade and rotation chaos over rotation stability and more 2b crap.

 

Basically and in summation... until we sign a cobb arrieta or lynn I think your opinion is completely wrong.

[KeithStone53151]

And if the young arms Clancy is citing prove ready, then you also have the ability to flip Chacin for more prospects.

 

Calling this "blowing $16M" is missing the forest for the trees.

 

This. Especially with it being front loaded. I don't think Chacin is likely to be traded at the deadline if we are in contention. If he posts a sub 4 era and 180 innings, someone will be interested in 1 year of Chacin for probably a #101-200 prospect or a couple young fliers...possibly more if it's closer to the low 3s ERA that he posted from June forward this past year. Either way, the contract would be gone and space would be cleared for our AA/AAA pitching prospects.

 

Injuries happen, that's how guys of the Wilkerson/Suter/Jungmann caliber should get chances in the rotation. You don't opt to not sign an established #3/4 starter because one of these fringe MLB/AAA guys from a stuff standpoint might play up to a #4/5 starter for league minimum. That isn't a winning formula.

[KeithStone53151]

Let's just look at the four guys:

As a starter, Suter posted a 3.45 ERA in 2017 over 70.1 innings. This was affected by a rotator cuff strain. In July, four of his five starts were at least six innings.

 

For the last two-three years, Suter's done a shuffle between the bullpen and the rotation. The last two years had him shuttling between Colorado Springs and Milwaukee. I don't anticipate the latter shuffle, but the former one can't be good for his ability to go six or seven innings a start. Suter's shown enough in the minors and in Milwaukee to have a spot in the rotation. I think that is he isn't doing that shuffle, he can get close to 180 IP this year.

 

Woodruff's 4.81 ERA in Milwaukee was a little more Garza-esque, but that's more because he got treated like a baby seal in his last start. In his first seven, he had a 3.76 ERA. He also regularly went 6 or 7 IP

 

Ventura... I think he's got potential. He posted a 4.06 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) at Colorado Springs. Not world-beating, but Josh Hader's ERA in that town was 5.37.

 

Derby... well, I can say the same things about him that I said about Ventura, only he had a 3.55 ERA in 12 starts at Colorado Springs.

 

All four of those guys look good, none gets more than league minimum. Jungmann, incidentally, posted great numbers at Colorado Springs (2,59 ERA in 17 games, 15 starts), and may be able to redeem himself as well.

 

The 2017 Brewers were an awesome ride. But with Nelson's injury, 2018 was the year to give young guns like this a shot, and to be willing to take a step back to being a 75 win team for 2018 (and maybe finding a gem or two for the rotation) instead of blowing $16 million over two years to maintain an 86-win team.

 

Honestly, the $16 million would have been better spent on bringing Neil Walker back to play second.

 

Chacin isn't going to put your beloved Suter in danger of not making the team. And if Suter proves to be one of the team's five best starting candidates, he'll be in the rotation. Chacin is what he is, a proven, durable mid-rotation starter, which is much more than what can be said for Suter, Woodruff, Ventura or Derby. I mean, I like all those guys too, and it is likely that two of the four (Suter and Woodruff) are going to play major roles from day 1 of the season. I think Derby is a darkhorse candidate for the bullpen. He's got a lot of Tyler Thornburg in him. I'm not as high on Ventura, but he's not a bad guy to have around as a depth piece.

 

Also, I agree that the team signing Chacin has nothing to do with their ability or need to sign Walker. I imagine Walker is looking for a 4-year deal, and the Brewers don't want to commit to that many years on a player who isn't exactly young anymore. I liked Walker as well, but Villar or Dubon does offer much, much more upside at that position.

 

I still think Hader has the inside track, but I would expect at least to some degree there to be competition for the final 2 spots in the rotation(yes, Woodruff's spot as well). If either guy looks bad in spring, they might open in CS with Suter or Wilkerson or whoever is lighting up ST taking their spot. The other 3 guys are pretty much locked into rotation spots no matter what.

 

I have our payroll at 70-73 million with arbitration estimates and not including Boone Logan. Assuming he signs for maybe 3-5 million at most, we still have plenty of room to bring in someone like Walker if we choose. It just wouldn't be prudent to bring in a 2b at his age on a 4 year deal with the guys we have in the pipeline. I also think our payroll in contending years could be more than the $110 million we maxed out at 5 years ago. I think shared revenue especially and our Brewers revenue likely have increased to the point that we can afford to bump payroll higher in given years without losing money.

[DHonks]

I’m not giving up on Jungmann. We’ve seen pitchers like Mike Adams and Mike Fiers have sophomore slumps before being productive, so it can happen. He needs to re-dedicate himself and find his armslot early in camp

[JohnBriggs12]

I’m not giving up on Jungmann. We’ve seen pitchers like Mike Adams and Mike Fiers have sophomore slumps before being productive, so it can happen. He needs to re-dedicate himself and find his armslot early in camp

 

True, but all indications are that the current Brewers regime doesn't value him very highly. Otherwise he would have been promoted in September after a solid AAA season. At 28, all the his first round pick luster is gone and his 2015 run of success under the prior regime is getting smaller in the rear view mirror.

 

Fiers rebounded the season following his sophomore slump. Adams was a reliever his entire career in minors and majors, and they tend to have career ups and downs.

[brewmann04]

i agree with Dhonks

[JohnBriggs12]

Just saw a piece on MLB Tonight where they showed statistically which pitchers had the most success by type of pitch in 2017. Best slider? Yep it was Chacin. Knebel by the way had the 3rd most success with a four seam fastball.

[TJseven7]

Just saw a piece on MLB Tonight where they showed statistically which pitchers had the most success by type of pitch in 2017. Best slider? Yep it was Chacin. Knebel by the way had the 3rd most success with a four seam fastball.

 

Yeah someone sent me a link to fangraphs player pages and im hooked on it for pitchers now. Chacin slider 35% of the time last year. One of the best win values I've ever seen for a pitch. He's going to throw a bunch of them this year and if we are lucky enough to get enough arms to push him to the pen he's our new swarzak. If they can do the mound placement alteration with him like they did anderson he could have a great great season. I'm really happy with this add. Guys a steal at this price tag.

[liveforoctober]

This thread was a lot of fun to read through. I think he has changed some opinions..

[Fear The Chorizo]

 

I'd rather have Chacin over the next few years than Tyler Chatwood, who got a $38MM commitment.

 

That doesn't make your post any less insane.

 

 

Crazy like a fox...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, Briggs will be happy. But really, this guy sucks. I'm more excited about Gallardo. And "excited" is a stretch.

 

Well, this aged well. It is a good thing I don't make the decisions.

 

At least I didn't dig my heels in on this one as much as trwi7 did. Wow!

[Roderick]

I’m not giving up on Jungmann. We’ve seen pitchers like Mike Adams and Mike Fiers have sophomore slumps before being productive, so it can happen. He needs to re-dedicate himself and find his armslot early in camp

 

As best I can tell, Jungmann is leading the Eastern League of Japan baseball in ERA. By quite a margin too. 1.43 and everyone else is 2.94 or more. That is at about 75 innings.

[bill hAll Star]

Mod edit: no need to pile on

[tmwiese55]

It would probably be funny too look at his first 3-4 game threads too. Folks probably calling for him to DFAd and a flop

[bill hAll Star]

It would probably be funny too look at his first 3-4 game threads too. Folks probably calling for him to DFAd and a flop

 

I was a middle of the road "trust the process" guy on Chacin, but I saved some tweets/replies when Haudricourt had a tweet like "Chacin coming out in the 4th, 5 ER" type of stuff. Chacin had a clearly brutal BABIP against him and it wasn't going to stick, but people were ready to fire the entire ownership and management team, if at all possible.