Brewers sign Jhoulys Chacin

[TJseven7]

He assured me Chacin will be fine

 

"I think he's going to suck."

 

-David Stearns

 

Stearns grabs his wallet... pulls a 20... pulls a lighter out.... sets it on fire.

 

Yeah that's what I did, only bigger!

[Point Beer Is Best]

He assured me Chacin will be fine

 

"I think he's going to suck."

 

-David Stearns

 

Stearns grabs his wallet... pulls a 20... pulls a lighter out.... sets it on fire.

 

Yeah that's what I did, only bigger!

 

"Mark told me to do it! Just like he did with Garza & Suppan!"

[SomewhereInTime]

Just met Stearns at lunch today at a Potbelly's on the eastside. He assured me Chacin will be fine, and I did bring up the home and away splits

 

Didn't ask about Archer, I was too nervous, super nice guy and he took some pictures with us.

 

 

Go Brew

 

Only time Ive ever met him was at wrigley this year, and by met him I mean saw him walking by and he kept walking, didnt look too happy, i think we were down like 13-1 at that point.

[KCBrewerfan34]

You must have met Stearns just before/after he met Chacin...

 

 

 

Met him at 1145, I'm staking out the place going forward, I will ask about Archer and Arrietta next time. I'm sure he will be upfront and honest.

[TJseven7]

You must have met Stearns just before/after he met Chacin...

 

 

 

Met him at 1145, I'm staking out the place going forward, I will ask about Archer and Arrietta next time. I'm sure he will be upfront and honest.

 

Ask him the softball questions that he might open up about.

 

What does their scouting or numbers say on Chacin that make them think they can improve his numbers vs lefties. And is Gallardo a pen guy or starter competition.

 

Both of those are secured targets and are braggish answers so maybe he'd open up a bit.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think someone posted 24QS last year? I mean that's easily far more than Danny Duffy who costs way more+prospects while barely reaching just 24 total Starts. This is the type of Starter a team needs for back end of your rotation. I love QS stats because a QS should net being in a winnable game. You gotta pitch 6innings to even qualify, something Suter or Hader will struggle at doing. At the same time why I love Woodruffs potential as I see him as a QS stat stuffer. In this age of RP getting to the bullpen with a lead after 6 innings is mostly whats asked from good starters.

So I'm really in to Chacin's signing.

[brewerfan82]

24 starts with 3 ER or less, 16 QS in 32 starts (Duffy had 13 QS in 24 starts)

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

To those talking about PetCo as hitter-friendly, you may find this of interest:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mid-season-park-factor-update/

 

The idea is basically that PetCo is "misunderstood." It's perceived as being pitcher-friendly, but the San Diego marine layer sometimes aids offense rather than defense.

 

Take it for what it's worth, but I think it adds another dimension to this...

[homer]

It appears to be slightly frontloaded. $1.5M signing bonus with 8 in 2018 and 6 in 2019.

 

Liking this more and more. If he's a bust as a starter, he's a $6 million reliever to get righties out next year.

 

Right, it's an overpay for a reliever if he doesn't work out...but not like paying Garza 12 million to be a mop up man for half the year. It's not a terrible contract in that case. Could be a gem if he can do 5-7 innings of 2-3 runs per outing in the majority of his starts again.

 

I dunno. Swarzak got $14 million for two years to be a reliever.

[brewcrewdue80]

24 starts with 3 ER or less, 16 QS in 32 starts (Duffy had 13 QS in 24 starts)

 

Ah, thanks. I couldnt find it when I went back a few pages though I was skim reading. Pretty much the same rate as Duffy then which is still better than prospects+salary.

[kalle8]

Just heard the interview posted on the media archive, the "you knows" are Prince level

[JohnBriggs12]

As a Rockie, Chacin had better splits at Coors than he did on the road. I remember the game he pitched against the Brewers last May. It was easily one of the most dominant performances against the Crew all year. They didn't record one line drive in 7 innings. He fanned 8 and got 12 GB outs over 7 innings. Brewers scored in the first on a walk and two ground ball singles to the first 4 hitters. Then he retired the next 19 Brewers, before finally issuing a walk with 2 outs in the 7th. Then he fanned Broxton and called it a night.

 

When he's right, it doesn't matter where he pitches. He allowed 157 hits in 180 IP and fanned 153. He was a bargain. Kudos to Stearns. My only issue is why didn't they pursue him at the deadline? He was 4-0 in July with a 2.51 ERA, and he posted a 3.25 ERA in 11 starts in August and September. He just might have made the difference.

[JohnBriggs12]

24 starts with 3 ER or less, 16 QS in 32 starts (Duffy had 13 QS in 24 starts)

 

 

In addition to those 16 quality starts, he had 5 others where he went at least 5 innings and allowed 1 run or less. You could make an argument that he had 21 quality starts.

[homer]

I think this is good value for a 4/5 starter which is what he essentially is right now. If he improves to a 3 it's incredible value. Even if he goes to the pen and they put him in against righties in high leverage situations it ends up being pretty good value given the kind of money getting thrown around at relievers these days.

[clancyphile]

I think this is good value for a 4/5 starter which is what he essentially is right now. If he improves to a 3 it's incredible value. Even if he goes to the pen and they put him in against righties in high leverage situations it ends up being pretty good value given the kind of money getting thrown around at relievers these days.

 

For 4/5 starters, the Crew had Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, and Woodruff as 40-man options. Add Derby and Ventura for NRI candidates at AAA. All make league minimum or roughly that. Gallardo makes $2 million non-guaranteed. If he is a solid 4/5 (Garza-esque), he's an OK value, but still costs three times what any of the other seven cost.

 

Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value. AndI think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better.

 

Chacin is a good value as a #3 starter. Gallardo would be an insane value as a #3 (I would have done a one-year deal with two or three years of team options).

[MrTPlush]

Two or three option years on Gallardo? What a giant waste of money that would be. To do that we would have to pay him buyouts when he, not surprisingly isn’t very good. You can’t just put on option years for fun. Those come at a cost and giving them to a guy like Gallardo just does not make any sense.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think this is good value for a 4/5 starter which is what he essentially is right now. If he improves to a 3 it's incredible value. Even if he goes to the pen and they put him in against righties in high leverage situations it ends up being pretty good value given the kind of money getting thrown around at relievers these days.

 

For 4/5 starters, the Crew had Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, and Woodruff as 40-man options. Add Derby and Ventura for NRI candidates at AAA. All make league minimum or roughly that. Gallardo makes $2 million non-guaranteed. If he is a solid 4/5 (Garza-esque), he's an OK value, but still costs three times what any of the other seven cost.

 

Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value. AndI think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better.

 

Chacin is a good value as a #3 starter. Gallardo would be an insane value as a #3 (I would have done a one-year deal with two or three years of team options).

 

When was the last time Gallardo was worthy of a rotation spot, let alone a #3 starter?

[clancyphile]

I think this is good value for a 4/5 starter which is what he essentially is right now. If he improves to a 3 it's incredible value. Even if he goes to the pen and they put him in against righties in high leverage situations it ends up being pretty good value given the kind of money getting thrown around at relievers these days.

 

For 4/5 starters, the Crew had Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, and Woodruff as 40-man options. Add Derby and Ventura for NRI candidates at AAA. All make league minimum or roughly that. Gallardo makes $2 million non-guaranteed. If he is a solid 4/5 (Garza-esque), he's an OK value, but still costs three times what any of the other seven cost.

 

Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value. AndI think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better.

 

Chacin is a good value as a #3 starter. Gallardo would be an insane value as a #3 (I would have done a one-year deal with two or three years of team options).

 

When was the last time Gallardo was worthy of a rotation spot, let alone a #3 starter?

 

2015. The thing is, as Cirillo and Jeffress rebounded in their returns to Milwaukee, so might Gallardo.

 

As for the buyouts, on a $2 million deal, that's about $500K, give or take. I am less upset about the Gallardo deal, because his likely floor (released) is on a non-guaranteed contract. But if he rebounds to his 2007-2015 form, then the Crew gets no reward past 2018 for giving Yo a shot. In this case, a 2018 rebound that puts Gallardo back to his 162-game average of 15-11 with a 3.66 ERA and 204 IP means he's out of the Crew's price range.

[JohnBriggs12]

Both Gallardo and Chacin are threats with the bat too:

 

Career:

 

Chacin: .193/.214/.229 1 HR 20 RBI

 

Yo: .202/.229/.336 12 HR 42 RBI

[sveumrules]

For 4/5 starters, the Crew had Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, and Woodruff as 40-man options. Add Derby and Ventura for NRI candidates at AAA. All make league minimum or roughly that. Gallardo makes $2 million non-guaranteed. If he is a solid 4/5 (Garza-esque), he's an OK value, but still costs three times what any of the other seven cost.

 

Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value.And I think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better.

 

Chacin is a good value as a #3 starter. Gallardo would be an insane value as a #3 (I would have done a one-year deal with two or three years of team options).

 

Chacin was one of only 23 pitchers in all of MLB last season to throw 180 innings, with an ERA better than league average. I think the odds of any of Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, Ventura or Derby matching those numbers are extremely low.

[KeithStone53151]

For 4/5 starters, the Crew had Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, and Woodruff as 40-man options. Add Derby and Ventura for NRI candidates at AAA. All make league minimum or roughly that. Gallardo makes $2 million non-guaranteed. If he is a solid 4/5 (Garza-esque), he's an OK value, but still costs three times what any of the other seven cost.

 

Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value.And I think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better.

 

Chacin is a good value as a #3 starter. Gallardo would be an insane value as a #3 (I would have done a one-year deal with two or three years of team options).

 

Chacin was one of only 23 pitchers in all of MLB last season to throw 180 innings, with an ERA better than league average. I think the odds of any of Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, Ventura or Derby matching those numbers are extremely low.

 

Many on this board are all for giving young players a chance, but you can't have a team full of rookies. We are giving looks to higher upside guys like Hader/Woodruff in the rotation this year. 2 is plenty. You need to weigh giving young pitchers a chance against potentially devastating the bullpen if none of the 3 work out. And most of the guys you mentioned are really fringe #5 starters at best. Chacin is better than any of them could hope to be on their best day. Chacin gives us 3 guys that you can hope/expect to throw at least 6 innings most of the time, allowing you to hope for the best with Woodruff/Hader and not be in too much trouble if they have very short outings.

[Roderick]

Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value. AndI think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better.

 

I agree with your statement that I am sure if given the opportunity one or more of those options would be great. But, as someone mentioned earlier in this thread, you would also spend quite a bit of the entire season figuring out which one of those options is going to be that true #3 pitcher, which means some bad pitching before that to get there.

 

After last season, I don't see how anyone would want to assume a lost season, going in with a plan to figure out who should be on our starting staff - at least to begin the year.

 

Guys like Guerra and Jungmann, I assume realize that this spring training is "all in" as they won't have 25/40 man spots for all of those options.

[TJseven7]

For 4/5 starters, the Crew had Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, and Woodruff as 40-man options. Add Derby and Ventura for NRI candidates at AAA. All make league minimum or roughly that. Gallardo makes $2 million non-guaranteed. If he is a solid 4/5 (Garza-esque), he's an OK value, but still costs three times what any of the other seven cost.

 

Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value.And I think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better.

 

Chacin is a good value as a #3 starter. Gallardo would be an insane value as a #3 (I would have done a one-year deal with two or three years of team options).

 

Chacin was one of only 23 pitchers in all of MLB last season to throw 180 innings, with an ERA better than league average. I think the odds of any of Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, Ventura or Derby matching those numbers are extremely low.

 

This is true and absolutely crazy when you think about it. 180 ip and under league average era. 23 guys in the league total fit those 2 criteria. 30 years old. 8 mil per at 16/2. Add 167 starts... and his career average era is .04 higher than the season he's coming off. So history says its no fluke.

 

You say all those criteria blindly you wouldn't assume you signed him at 16/2. I always find that odd in baseball. While others factor in baseball is largely results in a vacuum. Pitcher vs hitter. Yet some guys who repeat upper level results get paid scraps compared to other more talented names who get paid as stars while they put up similar results.

 

Then you look at the fact we sit on Davies Chacin Suter and you just smile. 3 guys, not impressive on pure raw talent clocking in at sub 4.

[clancyphile]

Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value. AndI think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better.

 

I agree with your statement that I am sure if given the opportunity one or more of those options would be great. But, as someone mentioned earlier in this thread, you would also spend quite a bit of the entire season figuring out which one of those options is going to be that true #3 pitcher, which means some bad pitching before that to get there.

 

After last season, I don't see how anyone would want to assume a lost season, going in with a plan to figure out who should be on our starting staff - at least to begin the year.

 

Guys like Guerra and Jungmann, I assume realize that this spring training is "all in" as they won't have 25/40 man spots for all of those options.

 

Let's just look at the four guys:

As a starter, Suter posted a 3.45 ERA in 2017 over 70.1 innings. This was affected by a rotator cuff strain. In July, four of his five starts were at least six innings.

 

For the last two-three years, Suter's done a shuffle between the bullpen and the rotation. The last two years had him shuttling between Colorado Springs and Milwaukee. I don't anticipate the latter shuffle, but the former one can't be good for his ability to go six or seven innings a start. Suter's shown enough in the minors and in Milwaukee to have a spot in the rotation. I think that is he isn't doing that shuffle, he can get close to 180 IP this year.

 

Woodruff's 4.81 ERA in Milwaukee was a little more Garza-esque, but that's more because he got treated like a baby seal in his last start. In his first seven, he had a 3.76 ERA. He also regularly went 6 or 7 IP

 

Ventura... I think he's got potential. He posted a 4.06 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) at Colorado Springs. Not world-beating, but Josh Hader's ERA in that town was 5.37.

 

Derby... well, I can say the same things about him that I said about Ventura, only he had a 3.55 ERA in 12 starts at Colorado Springs.

 

All four of those guys look good, none gets more than league minimum. Jungmann, incidentally, posted great numbers at Colorado Springs (2,59 ERA in 17 games, 15 starts), and may be able to redeem himself as well.

 

The 2017 Brewers were an awesome ride. But with Nelson's injury, 2018 was the year to give young guns like this a shot, and to be willing to take a step back to being a 75 win team for 2018 (and maybe finding a gem or two for the rotation) instead of blowing $16 million over two years to maintain an 86-win team.

 

Honestly, the $16 million would have been better spent on bringing Neil Walker back to play second.

[FVBrewerFan]

Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value. AndI think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better.

 

Honestly, the $16 million would have been better spent on bringing Neil Walker back to play second.

 

What is preventing them from spending $16MM on Neil Walker? Not sure what the signing of Chacin has to do with Walker?