Brewers sign Jhoulys Chacin

[TooLiveBrew]

Hold this season together? What does that mean? Be .500ish? You are talking out of both sides of your mouth. You don't want the team to go for it and add a couple of FA or trade prospects because we are not ready to contend for playofffs this year. And you also want them to sign middling starters for 7.5 mil a year instead of playing a multitude of young cheap farm arms that could be ready or seasoned for future seasons.

 

What actually could be happening.... Stearns sees playoffs this year as an actual possibility. He believes this makes the team better. This move looks pointless to me and many UNLESS a big move or two is still coming, and Yo/Chacin are in to give veteran depth to the back of rotation and not as a stop gap.. The more this offseason develops, the more I can envision big moves still coming. If not, I question the recent signings of Yo/ Chacin. Like everyone, we didn't see this coming.

What I think is most likely (this is just me personally), is that Stearns sees this move as one with good potential at having really good value -- mostly independent on whatever other moves unfold or don't unfold this offseason.

 

There's very little risk for the Brewers in this deal. They have enough payroll flexibility that if Chacin crashes & burns, you suffer through it & stash him in the 'pen (or grin & bear him in the rotation if you're not contending & he's not blocking anyone). But if they can mine some more success out of him, and now let's say he puts up an ERA in the 3.50-3.75 range -- now he's either a steal for our rotation at $7-8M AAV, or you have a really valuable & affordable trade asset to flip. What if they wind up being able to turn Chacin into an Isan Diaz+ type of return? That's worth easily more than $15M, & I like that risk/reward gamble as a strategy.

 

I'd much rather see the club take risks like this than invest more in older, pricier SP FAs (like a Lynn or a Garza). Not saying you're arguing for that, but it's the next most comparable type of move. We just signed this guy for what Swarzak got to throw 60-70 innings per season.

[jerichoholicninja]

I've seen it mentioned in this thread and the Gallardo thread that they just need someone to hold a rotation spot for half a year until Nelson comes back. Last I remember, the Brewers said they don't know how long his recovery will be. Even if he does get healthy in 2018, there's no guarantee he will be the same pitcher next year or even ever again. If I'm Stearns, I'm making my moves with the thinking that Nelson never throws another inning for the Brewers. If he comes back healthy and pitches well, great, then you have depth. But making any moves expecting Jimmy to continue where he left off is quite foolish in my opinion.

[FVBrewerFan]

I've seen it mentioned in this thread and the Gallardo thread that they just need someone to hold a rotation spot for half a year until Nelson comes back. Last I remember, the Brewers said they don't know how long his recovery will be. Even if he does get healthy in 2018, there's no guarantee he will be the same pitcher next year or even ever again. If I'm Stearns, I'm making my moves with the thinking that Nelson never throws another inning for the Brewers. If he comes back healthy and pitches well, great, then you have depth. But making any moves expecting Jimmy to continue where he left off is quite foolish in my opinion.

 

True. But I believe they have a better idea on his return than what they're saying publicly. Also, I think for the most part when this is brought up, we've said Nelson ans/or Burnes.

[splitterpfj]

I like Chacin, at these numbers I have no problem with bringing him in.

 

Even so, I hope there's a more substantial move coming to help the rotation. I'm hoping the team skips the huge contracts, and instead makes a big trade.

 

I realize Stearns will only do that if he finds an acceptable match, and I realize finding such a thing when chasing good pitching is a rare thing, but it's what I'm hoping for.

 

I hope the storyline reads, "Brewers add _______ and Chacin."

[pogokat]

Based on Fip and xFip, Chacin was about the same as Zach Davies and Alex Cobb (and Jake Arrieta), better than Straily and Lynn, and waaaaaaaaaay better than Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, and Jeremy hellickson in 2017. I've seen all of those names tossed around either as trade candidates or as considerably pricier free agent signings. The Brewers got him for about as cheap as you can get a top 50 Free Agent. This isn't a new Ferrari, but it is a Honda Accord, and in 9/10 ways, that's better.

[TJseven7]

Fangraphs article about Chacin's platoon splits and the possibility that Stearns & Co. think they can help him improve against LHB:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jhoulys-chacin-will-be-a-fun-brewers-project/

 

If he's actively looking for flawed bargains that his people feel they can subtly alter and turn into gems... well then this is next level genius.

 

So many years of watching everyone else fix our pitchers who moved on from mke... if they can reverse that with this group... well basically that changes everything. If they see a way he can alter something minor or alter pitch selection vs lh batters and that takes lh down a solid notch you could see this guy be a hell of a steal. You could see low 3s. If he's that we are going to be hoping this guy has a 3rd year team option at 8.

 

Went from liking this move to loving this move. 3 down 2 to go. Woodruff could be 1.

[reillymcshane]

I'm warming to this move. He did well last year - and I'm letting my previous take on the guy - which wasn't good - cloud my vision a bit. I'm mainly concerned about the guy's history - he's been all over the map as a pitcher - and I just don't want the crappy version (which has been more common than the good version of Chacin).

 

I really only wanted a one-year deal - but so be it. If he can provide stability in backend of the rotation - that's great.

[wallus]

Worst case he is a ROOGY?

[TJseven7]

I'm warming to this move. He did well last year - and I'm letting my previous take on the guy - which wasn't good - cloud my vision a bit. I'm mainly concerned about the guy's history - he's been all over the map as a pitcher - and I just don't want the crappy version (which has been more common than the good version of Chacin).

 

I really only wanted a one-year deal - but so be it. If he can provide stability in backend of the rotation - that's great.

 

He really hasnt though.

 

2010 2011 were good. 3.3 era 137 ip... 3.6 era 197 ip respectively.

2012 made 5 starts got rocked... was out 3.5 months and closed the season well. 9 starts 44 ip sub 3 era.

2013 good 3.5 era 197 ip

Dealt with injuries in 2014 2015 16 games 15 starts total...4.8 era

2016 was coming back off two short years 144 ip 4.8 era

2017 back to 180 ip 3.9 era.

 

Guys seems a lot like Davies... starts slow and gets into a groove as the season goes on. Health permitting. When health keeps him from his every 6 day rhythm his results fall. But that type that has some ugly months but also strings together 8 starts sub 2 era in between.

 

His 4 undisturbed years were 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.9 era. 137 194 197 180 ip. His bad years were 69 63 26 and the year of 144 ip following back to back 63 26 ip years. The concern shouldn't be about him being bad it should be about him getting hurt. Maybe its the fact that he hasnt been heathly or fully back the 3 years prior to last year that sours opinions.

 

Worst case...Would seem like an awesome guy to pair with Suter in that partner start strategy. 4ip chacin 3.72 for career counting rough injury shortened stints. Then Suter vs a LH stacked lineup for 4. Bait and switch.

[clancyphile]

This is the kind of deal I was hoping NOT to see over the off-season.

 

Don't fret. Suter still is a near lock to make the team as a long reliever and has an excellent shot to take the 5th starter spot if Hader stays in the pen.

 

The Crew spending $16 million over two years to get numbers that could have come from one of Suter, Jungmann, Hader, Ventura, Burnes, Ortiz, or Derby for a grand total of about $1.5 million.

 

This guy pitched half his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors.

 

Lucroy or Neil Walker would have been a far better use of the money.

[pacopete4]

I'm just excited to hear the move announced so we can all change tune and freak out over who it is we release from the 40-man roster!

[Roderick]

.... Get rocked in 6 and qs 26. 80% chance to win.

 

I also don't mind the starter that gets blasted every once in a while.

 

There were times last year that every single game was within 2-3 runs for it seemed 2+ weeks straight. I was *almost* hoping to get blown out, so we could save the pen.

[MillerParkSouth]

 

The more I read, the more I’m liking this signing. Lots of upside it seems at a minimal cost.

[FVBrewerFan]

This is the kind of deal I was hoping NOT to see over the off-season.

 

Don't fret. Suter still is a near lock to make the team as a long reliever and has an excellent shot to take the 5th starter spot if Hader stays in the pen.

 

The Crew spending $16 million over two years to get numbers that could have come from one of Suter, Jungmann, Hader, Ventura, Burnes, Ortiz, or Derby for a grand total of about $1.5 million.

 

This guy pitched half his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors.

 

Lucroy or Neil Walker would have been a far better use of the money.

 

Why does signing Chacin prevent them from signing both Walker and Lucroy?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm just excited to hear the move announced so we can all change tune and freak out over who it is we release from the 40-man roster!

 

I'm starting to think the Brewers are literally never going to announce the Gallardo signing, so why would they announce Chacin? I'm thinking they must be waiting for something else to happen ... I'm guessing they have one or two trade offers out there that would clear 40-man space, and they are waiting on confirmation from the other team. Hopefully something will happen by the end of the week.

[superfly]

This is the kind of deal I was hoping NOT to see over the off-season.

 

Don't fret. Suter still is a near lock to make the team as a long reliever and has an excellent shot to take the 5th starter spot if Hader stays in the pen.

 

The Crew spending $16 million over two years to get numbers that could have come from one of Suter, Jungmann, Hader, Ventura, Burnes, Ortiz, or Derby for a grand total of about $1.5 million.

 

This guy pitched half his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors.

 

Lucroy or Neil Walker would have been a far better use of the money.

 

Please do elaborate on how a bunch of guys combined with 41 starts (14 last season with Suter, 21 with Jungmann in 2015) are "guaranteed" to have Chacin's numbers. This a fallacy that is always used that is unprovable yet sounds great. Suter barely makes it 5 innings and Jungmann wasn't even in the majors last year. Where was he if he's that competent?

 

Oh, and there's plenty of money just sitting in the bank for Lucroy or Neil Walker who you prefer. We didn't run out of money by signing a mid rotation starter for a low market value 2 year deal.

[pacopete4]

I'm just excited to hear the move announced so we can all change tune and freak out over who it is we release from the 40-man roster!

 

I'm starting to think the Brewers are literally never going to announce the Gallardo signing, so why would they announce Chacin? I'm thinking they must be waiting for something else to happen ... I'm guessing they have one or two trade offers out there that would clear 40-man space, and they are waiting on confirmation from the other team. Hopefully, something will happen by the end of the week.

 

I definitely think there is something to this. We have had multiple reports saying that there are offers out there on the table and they are in a holding pattern. Like you said, it'd be great to get a few Christmas presents by the end of the week!

[Boomer5]

Chacin is just a guy who profiles as a really nice 5th starter and a so so 4th starter.

 

He doesn't seem like the best choice for a Miller Park 3rd or 4th starter especially since we have a large number of back of the rotation candidates. He isn't young and he isn't especially cheap. His last truly great year was 2013.

 

His signing doesn't hurt us at all but he won't move the needle if the goal is the playoffs.

[TJseven7]

This is the kind of deal I was hoping NOT to see over the off-season.

 

Don't fret. Suter still is a near lock to make the team as a long reliever and has an excellent shot to take the 5th starter spot if Hader stays in the pen.

 

The Crew spending $16 million over two years to get numbers that could have come from one of Suter, Jungmann, Hader, Ventura, Burnes, Ortiz, or Derby for a grand total of about $1.5 million.

 

This guy pitched half his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors.

 

Lucroy or Neil Walker would have been a far better use of the money.

 

Lucroy... a 32 year old catcher who fell off a cliff in average and power despite playing in colorado part of the year is the guy you want? So petco made chacin but coors didnt salvage lucroy? Lets not mention pina was 2 war better. Lets not mention the years chacin pitched in colorado?

 

Peralta garza guerra milone espino pitched 280 innings for us at -3.2 war. You have 450 ip to replace in starts alone adding nelsons. Anderson with health gets 60. Woodruff with health gets 140. 250 left. Suter pitched 80 started 14... got to 6ip 4 times. I'm an optimist on wilkerson jungemann suter woodruff but you are asking a whole lot of them to get the 3 war chacin averages every 180 ip.

 

Chacin basically takes Nelsons spot. Woodruff takes the 4. Still need a 5. Chacin didn't exactly block suter wilkerson or jungemann from taking that spot. Gallardo certainly doesn't prevent anyone from anything. Its also pretty telling that Jungemann pitched great in CS yet never got a call up. Wilkerson got 2 short starts despite being stretched. That's not a big show of faith.

[Oldcity]

The Crew spending $16 million over two years to get numbers that could have come from one of Suter, Jungmann, Hader, Ventura, Burnes, Ortiz, or Derby for a grand total of about $1.5 million.

 

Of course this is possible, but how long would it take to find out which one? And how many shellings would it have taken before they got there?

[Outlander]

The Crew spending $16 million over two years to get numbers that could have come from one of Suter, Jungmann, Hader, Ventura, Burnes, Ortiz, or Derby for a grand total of about $1.5 million.

Just saying but 6-7 years ago we saw some here saying the same thing about Dillard, Cody and Butler and that obviously would have never been true.

[anglotiger]

This guy pitched half his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors.

 

If you only want to focus on this past season. I've been impressed by all of the success he had pitching half of his games in one of the most pitcher-unfriendly parks - especially given that the slider is reportedly his best pitch. Granted that wasn't his most recent years, and last year shouldn't be ignored, but I really think it unwise to look at this past year in a vacuum.

[pacopete4]

His signing doesn't hurt us at all but he won't move the needle if the goal is the playoffs.

 

Last season the Brewers got starts from:

 

Matt Garza, Junior Guerra, Paolo Espino, Tommy Milone, Brandon Woodruff, Wily Peralta.

 

These are guys I would consider our "5th" starter a season ago when you leave Nelson, Anderson, Davies and Suter in the top four spots.

 

The combined stats of these guys is the following:

 

Starts: 57 (over a third of the games, these turds were taking the ball for us. Gross)

Record: 15-20

ERA: 5.64

 

Now... Do we not think a guy like Chacin could move the needle and have gotten us another win last season that we needed to make the post season?

 

The more guys we sign like Chacin, possibly Gallardo, and whoever else comes next means we hopefully won't have starts like guys I listed above. And yes, I realize I included Woodruff in there but he just wasn't that good last season. Hit the wall most would say.

[Humans Need Water]

This is the kind of deal I was hoping NOT to see over the off-season.

 

Don't fret. Suter still is a near lock to make the team as a long reliever and has an excellent shot to take the 5th starter spot if Hader stays in the pen.

 

The Crew spending $16 million over two years to get numbers that could have come from one of Suter, Jungmann, Hader, Ventura, Burnes, Ortiz, or Derby for a grand total of about $1.5 million.

 

This guy pitched half his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors.

 

Lucroy or Neil Walker would have been a far better use of the money.

This is insanity on so many levels. Thinking Jungmann + 4 prospects that aren't even MLB ready (2 of them never seeing AAA yet) can produce at the level Chacin has is crazy talk. Chacin also pitched half his career games in Coors - *the* most hitter friendly park.

 

Even with Chacin we still need 1 more starter - enter Hader, Suter, Guerra as your main internal options + Nelson is coming back at some point. None of this prevents the signing of Lucroy (won't happen) or Walker (could happen).

[TJseven7]

Brew4U: Yeah did the math too. 280 innings between garza peralta guerra espino milone. War -3.2. Chacin averages 3 war per 180 ip.

 

So to be precise...er... 6 wins.

 

Even if woody and anderson pick up 200 extra ip (anderson 200 woodruff 180) in full healthy seasons. 250 ip missing to cover scraps and nelson. Chacin 180. Suter as the 5 would have to go from 80 innings to 150 to break even. It would block Ventura and Derby (really?) but I think thats a risk we should take. The list is suter wilkerson Jungemann maybe guerra maybe gallardo and late season Burnes. Any other mention is really out there.