Brewers sign Jhoulys Chacin

[monty57]

He killed righties at home and on the road. Really, the only issues he had were lefties on the road for some reason. Could become a situational guy in the bullpen worst case scenario.

 

Any input into who he played on the road? In only 80 innings, a lot of things could really skew the numbers.

 

He could have just faced some teams with stud lefties who had good games. Or, being in the NL West, his road numbers could be a lot of Arizona and Colorado, with the other pitchers park being home to the Dodgers who aren't easy to pitch against.

 

Not trying to make excuses, just something to look into if anyone has some spare time.

[superfly]

We'll see if something bigger comes up, but it looks like the Brewers are looking for stopgaps until Nelson is healthy and the prospects are ready. Hopefully this is just a one-year deal for an "innings eater." He could put up okay numbers, but I wouldn't count on that for 3-4 years.

 

Agreed. We were never getting a top notch pitcher on a one year deal. I'd rather go this route than pay a Lynn/Cobb anywhere near their asking price. I wouldn't say this completely closes the door on a big trade for Archer, but making that move likely means Hader to the pen...which would be nothing short of disappointing.

I wouldn't say it closes the door on Archer but I don't know if it ever was very likely. If they went after Archer they could always include Woodruff in the deal.

 

 

This has absolutely nothing to do with whether Archer would be pursued, just as the Gallardo signing doesn't. If the right deal presented itself Archer will be in Milwaukee, if not then Stearns will move along.

[3and2Fastball]

Good signing... He had a few bad games last year, got lit up a bit in Cincy and in Colorado, and his first outing of the year was a disaster, but he's a good solid #4 or #5 starter who will help the Brewers

[3and2Fastball]

Game by Game stats of Chacin's 2017 season

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=chacijh01&t=p&year=2017

[Fear The Chorizo]

Looking further at Chacin's splits, this is a guy that got tagged during the season's first two months, then finished pretty well for a back end of the rotation type of starter - his OPS against was sub-700 from June through the rest of the season.

 

His opening day outing at the Dodgers (3.1 IP, 9 ER, 2HR), April start at AZ (6IP, 7ER, 2HR), and May start at NYM (0.2IP, 7ER, 1HR) demolished his chances at a solid ERA and really skewed his home/road splits. Impossible not to have better numbers pitching at Petco compared to road parks as a Padre pitcher, but these three dumpster fire starts on the road make his #'s look much worse than they typically were.

 

That being said, he's not a guy who will consistently give you deep starts - if he's a rotation regular, you're hoping to get 5 solid innings and have the pen ready to roll not soon afterwards. He's a good rotation option provided you're not expecting him to be more than a better than average #5.

[3and2Fastball]

Keep in mind his name is pronounced Yo-leees

 

That means we got two Yo's in one week.

[brewerfan82]

You can checkout his game logs and then sort by ER: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=chacijh01&t=p&year=2017

 

His first game of the year he got pounded for 9 ER at LAD. And then he had two 7 ER games before the end of May at ARI and at NYM. Other than that, he was pretty servicable to excellent (one 5 ER game, two 4 ER games, seven 3 ER games, and 18 2 ER or less games).

[KeithStone53151]

This has absolutely nothing to do with whether Archer would be pursued, just as the Gallardo signing doesn't. If the right deal presented itself Archer will be in Milwaukee, if not then Stearns will move along.

 

If the right deal for any player in all of baseball presented itself, they'd be in Milwaukee...so your comment is meaningless. Certain moves can serve as indicators of whether other moves are more or less likely. The Giants trading away Span is an indicator that they will make a move for outfield help. The Brewers signing Chacin is an indicator that Stearns will be less inclined to target SP.

[superfly]

This has absolutely nothing to do with whether Archer would be pursued, just as the Gallardo signing doesn't. If the right deal presented itself Archer will be in Milwaukee, if not then Stearns will move along.

 

If the right deal for any player in all of baseball presented itself, they'd be in Milwaukee...so your comment is meaningless. Certain moves can serve as indicators of whether other moves are more or less likely. The Giants trading away Span is an indicator that they will make a move for outfield help. The Brewers signing Chacin is an indicator that Stearns will be less inclined to target SP.

 

I don't see it that way but ok. It's not like the Brewers pitching staff is a bunch of aces, we have um...

 

Anderson - Decent mid rotation starter

Davies - Decent mid rotation starter

Woodruff - Unknown commodity who if takes a step back we're in trouble

Suter - King 4IP and done, doesn't look good to me and throws 50mph

 

Nelson - Out half the year or more, is a #2 type when pitching well

 

 

and.....? Some minor leaguers? Guerra? Wilkerson who is another unknown? Burnes in AA? Let's bring Garza back!

 

Contrary to popular opinion I think we need a bunch of pitching depth, and that's what this signing is. It has little to do with trading for a top end starter IMO.

[pacopete4]

The more I have looked at the guy, the more I've gotten on board. Gotta stop being so reactionary but this guy can obviously help us this season if he throws it like he did a season ago.

[JohnBriggs12]

Chacin was 5-3 with a 3.33 ERA in the 2nd half. His road splits were skewed by two starts early in the year where he allowed 14 runs in 6 2/3 innings and his BABIP against was .353 on the road. That had nothing to do with the park. His ERA at home for his career is more than a half run better than on the road, and that includes a long stint for the Rockies. The guy simply pitches better when he sleeps in his own bed, regardless of where that is. He dominated the Brewers last May, fanning 8 and allowing just 2 hits and one run in 7 innings. He won 13 games for a last place team.

 

Chacin is a solid 3-4 starter who might be a great value play. Per B-R, he's a career 17.9 WAR pitcher, including 2.4 last year. IF he does sign, chances are the rotation will be Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff and hopefully Hader and not Gallardo.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Maybe someone noted this already but adding Chacin and Gallardo (neither are finalized though) means 41 players on the roster. Who is getting cut or is there a trade happening?

[Lathund]

Another point regarding the road splits, he also did spend several years pitching at Coors, and posted a 3.78 ERA, good for a 120 ERA+. 111 ERA+ for his career. ERA and ERA+ obviouly aren't a great indicator for future success, but it surprised me how solid his numbers have actually been. Repeat them for 180 innings and he'll have improved our rotation tremendously. As a thought experiment, imagine the 2017 season with even a slightly below league average starter (And Chacin will likely be better than that, as he has been in the past) in place of the starts made by Peralta, Milone, Espino and Johnny Wholestaff. And the knock-on effect that would've had on the bullpen.

 

So then it's all about the money. Ignoring his 11-inning 2009 rookie season, he has averaged a little over 2 WAR/season, even when including 3 seasons where he pitched 70 innings or less. Now obviously there's no guarantee he'll simply repeat that straight up, but if he did that'd be worth roughly $16m AAV. Now that'll have to come down due to risk and age and all that of course so that kind of deal would, in reality, be quite bad. It was more to stress the point that the skillset he has shown in the past, as late as 2017, is worth quite a bit if you think it can be repeated.

[clancyphile]

This is the kind of deal I was hoping NOT to see over the off-season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Quoting MLBTR on Chacin:

 

"he's been a durable mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons and should help stabilize a group that carried significant questions.....Chacin enjoyed success earlier in his career in the game's worst pitching environment, Coors Field."

 

"Statcast pegs Chacin's exit velocity on balls in the air (91.3) and overall exit velocity (85.4) among the weakest in the game for qualified pitchers. His .303xwOBA, while not elite, places him alongside names like Danny Duffy, Jake Arrieta, and Madison Bumgarner."

 

If he comes at a reasonable price, what's not to like?

[Humans Need Water]

I'm guessing he'll get a 2yr deal making the rotation Chase, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff + 1 (I still think they want Hader in the pen full time at this point using him 2-3 games per week in multi-inning role but he could be that 5th starter until Nelson is back).

 

But I wouldn't be shocked if they did keep Hader in the pen and had Suter or Guerra battling for that 5 spot with Nelson taking over once back. Burnes is up in 2nd half at some point if there's poor performance or injury. Gallardo sits in pen in multi-inning role and gives depth in case of injuries in rotation.

 

2019 would show Nelson (2), Chase (3), Davies (3), Woodruff (5), Chacin (1), Burnes (6) + we'll see how Ortiz/Peralta progress as well. There will be future trades. If Stearns does indeed acquire a controllable impact arm then another rotation arm will be traded as a result.

 

He's plugging holes until the prospects are ready but doing so with vets on 1-2yr deals who have had some success so we can still compete for the playoffs. Chacin's ERA+ has been above average almost every year of his career. 1-2 of Nelson, Chase, Davies will be traded at some point after this season. It's all unfolding how I expected, and said, it would.

[JohnBriggs12]

This is the kind of deal I was hoping NOT to see over the off-season.

 

Don't fret. Suter still is a near lock to make the team as a long reliever and has an excellent shot to take the 5th starter spot if Hader stays in the pen.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would guess that Chacin gets a 3 year deal, in the range of $25-30 million total. By today's standards, that's a bargain and will make him marketable in a year or two.

[sargennm]

These are the kind of deals I'm hoping for. Hopefully guys with value contracts with nice upside to give rotation/bullpen depth. Get a couple guys in the door for the same amount you would pay a guy like Lance Lynn or Arietta who would tie up a big chunk of money and be tough to overcome if they don't work out.

[reillymcshane]

I would guess that Chacin gets a 3 year deal, in the range of $25-30 million total. By today's standards, that's a bargain and will make him marketable in a year or two.

That would be horrible in my book. But I'm not a fan of the guy.

[FVBrewerFan]

Very simply, the Brewers are thin at SP for a few months and Chacin is a cheap and decent way to bridge the gap.

 

Nelson and Burnes will hopefully be ready next season. )Burnes maybe sooner rather than later.) Then by mid-season 2019 you have Ortiz, Peralta, Houser, Ponce, Perin. Plus Hader and/or Williams could get a shot at staring. And that's not even accounting for guys that could be fast risers like Bickford, Yamamoto, etc. Plenty of depth to believe a couple of those guys will be very good starters. That's why Chacin fits at the right place/ right time.

 

If they can build a rotation from within, that leaves gobs of money to spend on a bat or two if they need one in the next couple years. And plenty left to extend the guys they want to extend. That's how you build a contending team that's sustainable.

[SRB]

Wow, some ridiculous pessimism in this thread. Chacin had a 4.26 FIP last year and was worth 2.3 fWAR. He had a 4.01 FIP the year before. And he hasn't turned 30 yet. That's not glamorous, but it's a very solid back-of-the-rotation pitcher. If the deal is anything less than $40MM then it's a great value pickup.

 

Gallardo makes little sense except as a flier they think they can fix. Chacon in contrast is just a decent MLB contributor. Between this and the Chris Archer trade thread, I swear some people think any pitcher who isn't Clayton Kershaw is trash.

[pacopete4]

Wow, some ridiculous pessimism in this thread. Chacin had a 4.26 FIP last year and was worth 2.3 fWAR. He had a 4.01 FIP the year before. And he hasn't turned 30 yet. That's not glamorous, but it's a very solid back-of-the-rotation pitcher. If the deal is anything less than $40MM then it's a great value pickup.

 

Gallardo makes little sense except as a flier they think they can fix. Chacon in contrast is just a decent MLB contributor. Between this and the Chris Archer trade thread, I swear some people think any pitcher who isn't Clayton Kershaw is trash.

 

 

I won't speak for all but my first pessimistic post was due to him taking possibly taking a spot from Hader, Burnes, Woodruff. After researching and reading more on this guy, he's a good fit for Milwaukee (contract pending). I just am ready to see what our young horses can do and at first, it felt like we signed an old guy just to sign him. I was wrong and hope he pitches well for us.

[liveforoctober]

no dollars yet ... but reported as a 2 year deal per Crasnick on Twitter.

[FVBrewerFan]

If it's 2 years, the number $17MM comes to mind for some reason.