J.T. Realmuto

[And That]

-Keston Hiura

-Corbin Burnes

-Brandon Woodruff or Freddy Peralta (Brewers pick)

-Corey Ray

-Jacob Nottingham

Just on the eyeball test this doesn't seem toooooo far off to me, though I'd take out Hiura/Nottingham and replace with Erceg. I also wouldn't trade Peralta - Woodruff would have to be the guy. Given the constitution of the Yelich deal, I actually wonder if they'd want *another* Brewers OF prospect. They might have interest in Mario Feliciano as a long-term replacement for Realmuto, perhaps? Assuming Mario's medicals are getting to the point of clean.

 

Burnes/Erceg/Woodruff/Feliciano seems like a strong package to me. That's arguably 3 top-125 talents and a high-upside young catcher. Don't know if they'd bite, though.

[tmwiese55]

That just seems like too much for me. While I know Realmuto is good and I'd love him on the team, but he's not Buster Posey level good. He's basically the same level as Lucroy was in his prime if not a notch below. IMO that's significantly more than we gave them for Yellich and that simply shouldn't be the case.

[JosephC]

Here is my surplus value chart for this year:

 

1 WAR = 9.16 million

 

Prospect surplus values:

Hitter 1-10 = 84.16 million

Hitter 11-25 = 70.98 million

Hitter 26-50 = 43.73 million

Hitter 51-75 = 25.65 million

Hitter 76-100 = 23.58 million

Pitcher 1-10 = 80.03 million

Pitcher 11-25 = 44.65 million

Pitcher 26-50 = 34.12 million

Pitcher 51-75 = 18.9 million

Pitcher 76-100 = 17.86 million

 

Top 10 organizational prospect = 11.45 million

Role Player Prospect = 5.72 million

Fringe Prospect = 2.29 million

 

The top 100 values above are taken from the Point of Pittsburgh blog. The values have been adjusted up 7% annually over the last two years. Same was done with the WAR estimate (was 8 million and adjusted up 7% annually over the last two years). So if anybody thinks the WAR value is 10% too high, then every number listed above should be adjusted down 10% because I've kept the same ratio. Numbers still seemed accurate at last year's trade deadline, we'll see if that remains the same this year.

 

So as far as the Brewers.

Burnes = pitcher 51-75 = 18.9 million

Woodruff and Peralta = I'd have Woodruff still in the pitcher 76-100 group which would put him at 17.86 million, I'd have Peralta in the top 10 organizational prospect group which would put him at 11.45 million, since Woodruff could be considered a dropper and Peralta could be considered a riser let's split the difference and put each of them at 14.66 million

Ray = easy call as top 10 organizational prospect = 11.45 million

Nottingham = fringe prospect = 2.29 million

 

 

18.9 + 14.66 + 11.45 + 2.29 = 47.3 million in surplus value when not including Hiura

[reillymcshane]

Here is my surplus value chart for this year:

 

1 WAR = 9.16 million

 

Prospect surplus values:

Hitter 1-10 = 84.16 million

Hitter 11-25 = 70.98 million

Hitter 26-50 = 43.73 million

Hitter 51-75 = 25.65 million

Hitter 76-100 = 23.58 million

Pitcher 1-10 = 80.03 million

Pitcher 11-25 = 44.65 million

Pitcher 26-50 = 34.12 million

Pitcher 51-75 = 18.9 million

Pitcher 76-100 = 17.86 million

 

Top 10 organizational prospect = 11.45 million

Role Player Prospect = 5.72 million

Fringe Prospect = 2.29 million

 

The top 100 values above are taken from the Point of Pittsburgh blog. The values have been adjusted up 7% annually over the last two years. Same was done with the WAR estimate (was 8 million and adjusted up 7% annually over the last two years). So if anybody thinks the WAR value is 10% too high, then every number listed above should be adjusted down 10% because I've kept the same ratio. Numbers still seemed accurate at last year's trade deadline, we'll see if that remains the same this year.

 

So as far as the Brewers.

Burnes = pitcher 51-75 = 18.9 million

Woodruff and Peralta = I'd have Woodruff still in the pitcher 76-100 group which would put him at 17.86 million, I'd have Peralta in the top 10 organizational prospect group which would put him at 11.45 million, since Woodruff could be considered a dropper and Peralta could be considered a riser let's split the difference and put each of them at 14.66 million

Ray = easy call as top 10 organizational prospect = 11.45 million

Nottingham = fringe prospect = 2.29 million

 

 

18.9 + 14.66 + 11.45 + 2.29 = 47.3 million in surplus value when not including Hiura

 

Nicely organized and explained. I appreciate it.

[Tbadder]

At the risk of being strung up I’d like to propose JT for Huira and Hader. And then try to expand that by adding Villar, Ray, Erceg, and Ponce for Castro and international monies. (I’m ducking right now)

[Tbadder]

At the risk of being strung up I’d like to propose JT for Huira and Hader. And then try to expand that by adding Villar, Ray, Erceg, and Ponce for Castro and international monies. (I’m ducking right now)

[adambr2]

Agreed, thanks Joseph for the explanations. I do have to play devils' advocate here.

 

Would this not give Yelich $140M in surplus value? 5 years of control at 4 WAR per, at 9.16 per WAR is 183.2M, minus his contract is about $140M.

 

The chart seems a little too rigid to me. There obviously isn't $27M value difference between the 25th and 26th prospects. I'd prefer a mathematical formula where there's more staggering between each pick. The 1st and 10th best prospects obviously aren't worth the same either

 

For instance, Brinson was on the 11-25/26-50 border when we traded for him, so I'd split the difference and call him $57M. Harrison would have been firmly in the 50-75 tier at 23M, Isan a top 10 organizational at $11.5 and Yamamoto a fringe at $2M+.

 

That would only give the Marlins $93-$94M coming back in the Yelich deal compared to $140M for Yelich.

 

I guess my point is that while this is interesting I'm just looking for some sort of real life comparable trade of this magnitude where this appeared to actually be used as a guideline.

[adambr2]

At the risk of being strung up I’d like to propose JT for Huira and Hader. And then try to expand that by adding Villar, Ray, Erceg, and Ponce for Castro and international monies. (I’m ducking right now)

 

All sounds great as long as you are a Marlins fan and not a Brewer fan.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Why would the Brewers trade Hader? I dont see it happening.

[Tbadder]

At the risk of being strung up I’d like to propose JT for Huira and Hader. And then try to expand that by adding Villar, Ray, Erceg, and Ponce for Castro and international monies. (I’m ducking right now)

 

All sounds great as long as you are a Marlins fan and not a Brewer fan.

 

I just think that JT has much more long term value at a more important position. Relievers are often up and down year to year. Of course the Brewers would never to it because fans are rightfully enamored of Hader. I’m also not convinced that Huira has a long term future with Brewers. Until that arm is fixed he smells like a DH. Castro would offer genuine stability at second base and I don’t think Erceg or Ponce will ultimately make it. Losing Villar gets rid of the headache and upgrades us defensively. Anyways, it all just idle speculation but I do believe the Brewers would be better this year.

[adambr2]

At the risk of being strung up I’d like to propose JT for Huira and Hader. And then try to expand that by adding Villar, Ray, Erceg, and Ponce for Castro and international monies. (I’m ducking right now)

 

All sounds great as long as you are a Marlins fan and not a Brewer fan.

 

I just think that JT has much more long term value at a more important position. Relievers are often up and down year to year. Of course the Brewers would never to it because fans are rightfully enamored of Hader. I’m also not convinced that Huira has a long term future with Brewers. Until that arm is fixed he smells like a DH. Castro would offer genuine stability at second base and I don’t think Erceg or Ponce will ultimately make it. Losing Villar gets rid of the headache and upgrades us defensively. Anyways, it all just idle speculation but I do believe the Brewers would be better this year.

 

Well, everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but I personally think your valuations are crazy off. Without even getting into JT vs. Hader the pieces you are proposing giving up for Castro would cause widespread rioting in Milwaukee.

 

Castro is barely if at all an upgrade from Villar and his 8 figure a year salary gives him absolutely no surplus value. I could see acquiring him but it would have to be a strict salary dump and nothing more like Walker last year.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t think the Brewers are concerned about Pina. He has rebounded off his miserable start. I doubt he hits like last year, enough offense that his defense is well worth it. I don’t know how hard it is to acquire a back-up catcher in July, but that seems a lot more likely.

[JosephC]

Agreed, thanks Joseph for the explanations. I do have to play devils' advocate here.

 

Would this not give Yelich $140M in surplus value? 5 years of control at 4 WAR per, at 9.16 per WAR is 183.2M, minus his contract is about $140M.

 

The chart seems a little too rigid to me. There obviously isn't $27M value difference between the 25th and 26th prospects. I'd prefer a mathematical formula where there's more staggering between each pick. The 1st and 10th best prospects obviously aren't worth the same either

 

For instance, Brinson was on the 11-25/26-50 border when we traded for him, so I'd split the difference and call him $57M. Harrison would have been firmly in the 50-75 tier at 23M, Isan a top 10 organizational at $11.5 and Yamamoto a fringe at $2M+.

 

That would only give the Marlins $93-$94M coming back in the Yelich deal compared to $140M for Yelich.

 

I guess my point is that while this is interesting I'm just looking for some sort of real life comparable trade of this magnitude where this appeared to actually be used as a guideline.

 

Without going through all the numbers again, I had Yelich as having 150 million dollars in surplus value before the trade was made. Also felt that was unrealistic for the Marlins to get that based on the type of packages that would be required to reach that figure. I thought 120 million was achieveable and put that as the price the Marlins would likely seek. I had the package the Brewers surrendering at 110 million at the time. I suspect the difference between the 110 million and the 93-94 million that you estimated is due to Brinson as I probably slotted him in the the 11-25 group. I called the trade a slight bargain for the Brewers, that's what the numbers showed even though I didn't like the trade.

 

Your 140 million dollar surplus value on Yelich seems like it would be very accurate in terms of the raw numbers. Although like with the Marlins, if the Brewers put him on the market they would only likely be able to fetch a return in the 95-100 million dollar range.

 

The chart isn't meant to be rigid at all. We can all argue about where someone like Brandon Woodruff would be slotted. Someone could also legitimately argue that Burnes should be right at the top end of the 51-75 group and therefore should be assigned a number closer to the 26-50 group rather than the 51-75 group. Lots of "play" involved. What I think the chart is best for is identifying completely lop-sided/ridiculous sort of trade suggestions. For example, if someone suggested Realmuto for Erceg + Ponce + Nottingham, it's hard to look at the numbers and find a way that this trade would make any sense for the Marlins.

[3and2Fastball]

At the risk of being strung up I’d like to propose JT for Huira and Hader. And then try to expand that by adding Villar, Ray, Erceg, and Ponce for Castro and international monies. (I’m ducking right now)

 

I would think that is close to accurate.

 

My guess is the Marlins asked that Hader be included and got hung up on, then asked for Burnes and got refused.

 

The Brewers would be better with JT, but they cannot afford to lose their pitching depth in MiLB in Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz etc. Those guys are a core part of 2019-2022.

[adambr2]

Hader is not going to be even tossed around as part of any trade discussions this year. It just doesn't make any sense to put that big of a hole in your pen to patch another area.

 

The absolute only way I could see Hader traded is if we kind of disappointed this year, won 75-80 games, were convinced Hader isn't ever going to be a starter, and got an absolute monster offer in the offseason. Even then I'm not sure we would do it. It would need to be a clear overpay.

 

Burnes is a much more realistic discussion piece for Realmuto, Hader is not.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

At the risk of being strung up I’d like to propose JT for Huira and Hader. And then try to expand that by adding Villar, Ray, Erceg, and Ponce for Castro and international monies. (I’m ducking right now)

 

I would think that is close to accurate.

 

My guess is the Marlins asked that Hader be included and got hung up on, then asked for Burnes and got refused.

 

The Brewers would be better with JT, but they cannot afford to lose their pitching depth in MiLB in Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz etc. Those guys are a core part of 2019-2022.

 

Not singling out you because a lot of posters have said similar things, but the whole notion that GMs "hang up" on each other if they feel the ask isn't fair is really dumb. GMs don't operate that way, regardless of how Billy Beane was portrayed in Moneyball or how Kevin Costner played the fictional Browns GM in Draft Day. I would think any GMs that do operate that way won't be GMs for long. These guys are professionals, and there is a strong modicum of mutual respect amongst them.

 

Heck I bet Doug Melvin wouldn't have even "hung up" on Sandy Alderson post Gomez trade debacle ... and if anyone had a reason to at the time, it was Melvin. And yes, I know the Plan B trade has kind of worked out for the Brewers

 

But on topic, I'm sure the Marlins are asking for a nice ransom for Realmuto, as they should be. The Brewers system is deep enough to absorb that ask and not be "gutted", although I'm sure there are many here who disagree with that.

[adambr2]

I would guess most people mean "hung up on" as a metaphorical term rather than a literal one. I do in any case.

 

These guys are probably texting each other anyway.

[brewmann04]

There is no way I trade Hader not for JT sorry not even any of our young arms.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There is no way I trade Hader not for JT sorry not even any of our young arms.

 

Wait, you wouldn't trade any young arms for Realmuto? Can't say I agree with that.

[Mr Southpaw]

Pina, Medieros, Hauser and Ray. Is that enough? I can't seeing doing much more.

[adambr2]

Pina, Medieros, Hauser and Ray. Is that enough? I can't seeing doing much more.

 

Nope. Not even close IMO.

[Mr Southpaw]

Then I pass.

[Outlander]

If people really believe Pina was going to be a 2 WAR/season player over the next few years then maybe but most don't and if the Brewers think that they probably don't go after Realmuto.

[Montezuma]

Hader is not an option for a trade... Especially during the season

[wallus]

The wide ranges of trade proposals is kinda amusing. I can't see any way we get Realmuto without at least giving up one of Burnes/Peralta.