J.T. Realmuto

[pacopete4]

Dealing for Realmuto pushes Pina in a backup role where he probably belongs on a really good team. I’d let Realmuto catch 105-110 and then play first about 15 game a season. This would open up 50+ games for Pina to not get banged up.

[wallus]

I would do a Realmuto and Prado (pay half of his 2019 salary) for Burnes, Nottingham, Sogard, and Ponce. Then you DFA Prado.

[wallus]

 

1) Cain

2) Yelich

3) Realmuto

4) Shaw

5) Santana/Braun

6) Thames/Aguilar

7) Villar

8) Arcia

 

Flip Santana/Braun with Thames/Aguilar and I could get on board with that.

[Roderick]

Dealing for Realmuto pushes Pina in a backup role where he probably belongs on a really good team. I’d let Realmuto catch 105-110 and then play first about 15 game a season. This would open up 50+ games for Pina to not get banged up.

 

I do not know how Realmuto stacks up defensively, so I assume ignorance on that.

 

I don't like the trade because it is at catcher. Best case we are talking about starting 125 games out of season. Add in the fact that catchers get more beat up more than any other position, I would hate to sink too many assets and then a ball hits him wrong and he is out six weeks. That is why I didn't mind the Yelich trade, he is going to start (or should start) 155 games. That is 25% more games from Realmuto to Yelich.

 

We will be shoehorning starts at 1B soon enough again when Braun and Thames are back, so I wouldn't count on that at all.

 

But, if he batted lefty or if we were able to replace Burnes with a couple of different pieces I may not be able to stop myself from offering that deal.

 

Edit: I also want to state that I don't want to diminish Pina's role in the performance that our pitchers have put up the last two years. Realmuto could come in and hit 100 more points OPS, but Pina may save a .25+ of a run a game more with his handling of the pitchers, framing, blocking and his arm. Once again, don't know enough about Realmuto.

[MrTPlush]

1) Cain

2) Yelich

3) Realmuto

4) Machado

5) Shaw

6) Aguilar/Thames

7) Santana/Braun

8) Villar

9) 2018 World Series Champions

[adambr2]

1) Cain

2) Yelich

3) Realmuto

4) Machado

5) Shaw

6) Aguilar/Thames

7) Santana/Braun

8) Villar

9) 2018 World Series Champions

 

That lineup is ridiculous. You could probably pull off both, but you'd have to gut your farm system like its 2010.

[coolhandluke121]

I believe you can hit the point of diminishing returns when you make too many win-now moves. That basically means you're not getting enough of a bump in your chances of winning a title to justify the long-term costs. Even a clearly superior team can lose in the playoffs because they're so short compared to the regular season. I prefer to try to maximize the number of playoff appearances, as opposed to putting all your eggs in one basket.

 

Just don't see the price on Realmuto being low enough to balance that loss against the improvement in the team. I wouldn't complain much if they did pull a deal and I would sit back and try to enjoy it, but I'm leaning against it in a big way.

[reillymcshane]

I believe you can hit the point of diminishing returns when you make too many win-now moves. That basically means you're not getting enough of a bump in your chances of winning a title to justify the long-term costs. Even a clearly superior team can lose in the playoffs because they're so short compared to the regular season. I prefer to try to maximize the number of playoff appearances, as opposed to putting all your eggs in one basket.

 

Just don't see the price on Realmuto being low enough to balance that loss against the improvement in the team. I wouldn't complain much if they did pull a deal and I would sit back and try to enjoy it, but I'm leaning against it in a big way.

In support, I would also argue that if we are going to be a really good team, we are going to need to keep producing cheap, young talent - in particular pitching. That means Ortiz, Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes, etc. need to come up and fill rotation slots. With luck, one or two blossom into something more than just back of the rotation types (not that there's anything wrong with a back of the rotation guy. It's just that we need guys to rise above that at some point.

 

But if we trade away too many of our decent looking arms, we are saddled with chasing marginal (or even bad) free agents to fill out the rotation. Depleting the farm system has some serious consequences.

 

I'm not saying we don't try and trade for Machado or Realmuto or whomever - only that we have to be careful we don't sap us of too much young talent - which we will need going forward.

[Eye Black]

Even a clearly superior team can lose in the playoffs because they're so short compared to the regular season. I prefer to try to maximize the number of playoff appearances, as opposed to putting all your eggs in one basket.

I agree with you as I also favor moves that increase the likelihood that the Brewers field a good team for several years, but I would add that even with maximizing the number of playoff appearances there are obviously still no guarantees.

 

I think the Washington Nationals of the past 6-7 seasons illustrate just how difficult it can be for a well assembled team to win a championship even given a longer window to be competitive. The Nationals have won 95 or more games in four of the past six seasons, but yet they have never even reached the NLCS. Imagine how frustrating it would be to have that amount of talent for a stretch of several years and continually fail to advance beyond of the Divisional Series. I am not saying the Nationals necessarily did anything wrong (well maybe aside from shutting down Strasburg in 2012), but I would guess that, barring a World Series appearance this season, many of their fans will consider the 2010's to have been somewhat of a disappointment.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Okay, so what would it take to get Realmuto + Prado? Woodruff, Perez, and Bethancourt/Nottingham/Pina? Is that too much cash to put on the payroll next year?

 

I don't think the Brewers have the money to eat Prado's salary for this year and next. But say they did, as the mock Marlin's representative I'd want something like this:

 

Brewers get: C-J.T. Realmuto, IF-Martin Prado

Marlins get: RHP-Luis Ortiz, OF-Corey Ray, RHP-Trey Supak, RHP-Zack Brown

Take out Supak and replace him with someone more proven like Peralta or Burnes, and add in Nottingham and I think you have something that the Marlins would at least have to ponder. Realmuto will not be cheap. Hell they might hang up if they don't hear Hiura involved.

[adambr2]

That's one nice thing about Realmuto though. Yeah, he's a go for it move but it's not like you have nothing to show for it if you don't win this year as he's still locked up for another 2 years after this one.

 

All of Hader, Yelich, Realmuto, Shaw, Cain, Santana, Jeffress, and your entire rotation besides Chacin are all under club control through 2020 or longer. That's a pretty nice stable setup.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I would do a Realmuto and Prado (pay half of his 2019 salary) for Burnes, Nottingham, Sogard, and Ponce. Then you DFA Prado.

Not nearly enough, and Sogard has negative value.

[wallus]

I would do a Realmuto and Prado (pay half of his 2019 salary) for Burnes, Nottingham, Sogard, and Ponce. Then you DFA Prado.

Not nearly enough, and Sogard has negative value.

 

Prado has much worse negative value. Look up his stats and contract...

[adambr2]

I just don't think the Marlins are in salary shedding mode anymore. Not that they would pass on a chance to do it, but I don't think they'll discount Realmuto to dump Prado. If they trade JT it will be with the idea of getting the maximum possible return.

[bill hAll Star]

I just don't think the Marlins are in salary shedding mode anymore. Not that they would pass on a chance to do it, but I don't think they'll discount Realmuto to dump Prado. If they trade JT it will be with the idea of getting the maximum possible return.

 

Amen.

 

I get that their ownership has been penny-pinching, but it's basically Prado and Chen as the only contracts on the books after this year. It would have to be a serious cash grab by ownership at this point because the books are very clear coming up.

 

They could probably run a $75 million payroll next year without any shakeup and then a $50 or $55 million payroll in the final (hopefully) year of their tank with zero contracts on the books after that.

[sveumrules]

Realmuto is the one player currently known to be available that I would pony up for just because catcher is theee thinnest position leaguewide & having a good one like JT can really give you a significant advantage.

 

Would prefer to keep Hiura/Burnes/Peralta if at all possible so my best offer would probably be Ray, one of Ortiz/Brown, Lara & Nottingham.

[adambr2]

Realmuto is the one player currently known to be available that I would pony up for just because catcher is theee thinnest position leaguewide & having a good one like JT can really give you a significant advantage.

 

Would prefer to keep Hiura/Burnes/Peralta if at all possible so my best offer would probably be Ray, one of Ortiz/Brown, Lara & Nottingham.

 

I just don't think you have any realistic shot with this, it looks more like a Rent-A-Machado offer. Realmuto has nearly 3 years control remaining, isn't expensive, and is one of the best catchers in baseball. If he's less valuable than Yelich it isn't by much.

 

Your offer doesn't contain a single top 100 prospect, so in order to have a chance with that you need a tremendously deep offer of 4 significantly valuable prospects. Lara and Nottingham just don't fit that description. Ray as a second or third piece is great, he's regained some value but is still a far cry from his post draft worth yet.

 

Ortiz isn't even healthy. I think any acquiring team is going to have serious reservations by this point about putting any kind of strong valuation on Ortiz because of injury concerns. Brown is fine but he's just not a needle mover in this either.

 

I love Freddy Peralta but you're not even wanting to include him -- if you can get Realmuto with Peralta and Ray as your headliners, I don't think you hesitate. I don't see it. I don't think an offer without at least one of Hiura and Burnes even gets the Marlins to the table.

[Roderick]

I am curious if this enough or if anyone thinks this is short still?

 

Any four players they want that aren't named Hirua, Burnes, Peralta and any catcher they want other than Pina (we won't need one, so force as part of deal). Max of three pitchers selected.

 

So they could take the system's #3, #4, #5, #6, #26 players per mlb.com. I'm sure they wouldn't, just throwing that out there as one objective source.

 

I would think they could assume two major leaguers from there, with one above average player.

[JosephC]

I am curious if this enough or if anyone thinks this is short still?

 

Any four players they want that aren't named Hirua, Burnes, Peralta and any catcher they want other than Pina (we won't need one, so force as part of deal). Max of three pitchers selected.

 

So they could take the system's #3, #4, #5, #6, #26 players per mlb.com. I'm sure they wouldn't, just throwing that out there as one objective source.

 

I would think they could assume two major leaguers from there, with one above average player.

 

I think, at a minimum, Realmuto should bring at least 60 million in prospect surplus value, and IMO the value of 3/4/5/6/26 right now would only be around 55 million, so that is short.

 

I also regret bringing up Prado's name because I don't think he's a possibility as a salary dump on Milwaukee considering the impending arbitration situation.

 

I may have been the first one to bring up Ortiz but that was over a month ago and before he ended up with an extended time on the DL. Take him out of the equation now unless it's as the third or fourth piece in a deal.

 

Biggest issue the Brewers have as buyers right now is the valuation of Hiura. As a #26-#50 hitter, the surplus value figure on him should be somwhere around 43 million. But I would guess that most other teams would not put that number on him right now. He may be in playing in the field everyday, but my guess is that teams would be hesitant to build a major deal around him considering the elbow problems. If the Brewers get low-balled on Hiura's number, then they keep him and if he's not in a deal it becomes very difficult to add up enough surplus dollars to swing a deal for a player like Realmuto.

 

As a mock Marlin's representative, today my ask for Realmuto would be:

-Keston Hiura

-Corbin Burnes

-Brandon Woodruff or Freddy Peralta (Brewers pick)

-Corey Ray

-Jacob Nottingham

The 4 non-Hiura prospects add up to approximately 47.3 million in surplus value, so using the 60 million baseline (which is the mimium), it would only value Hiura at 12.7 million which is basically "top 10 organizational prospect" status and would be too low IMO. But 60 million is the minimum for Realmuto, 70 million might be a better representation of what he'll actually bring. That would put the Hiura's value at 22.7 million which is just below the range of a #76-#100 hitter. It's not crazy to think the majority opinion among MLB GMs would have Hiura in that group considering some of the issues (elbow, defense, slow start against RHP this season). So even though at first glance that ask might seem crazy, it wouldn't be out of line for the Marlin's to request something like that.

[reillymcshane]

I am curious if this enough or if anyone thinks this is short still?

 

Any four players they want that aren't named Hirua, Burnes, Peralta and any catcher they want other than Pina (we won't need one, so force as part of deal). Max of three pitchers selected.

 

So they could take the system's #3, #4, #5, #6, #26 players per mlb.com. I'm sure they wouldn't, just throwing that out there as one objective source.

 

I would think they could assume two major leaguers from there, with one above average player.

 

I think, at a minimum, Realmuto should bring at least 60 million in prospect surplus value, and IMO the value of 3/4/5/6/26 right now would only be around 55 million, so that is short.

 

I also regret bringing up Prado's name because I don't think he's a possibility as a salary dump on Milwaukee considering the impending arbitration situation.

 

I may have been the first one to bring up Ortiz but that was over a month ago and before he ended up with an extended time on the DL. Take him out of the equation now unless it's as the third or fourth piece in a deal.

 

Biggest issue the Brewers have as buyers right now is the valuation of Hiura. As a #26-#50 hitter, the surplus value figure on him should be somwhere around 43 million. But I would guess that most other teams would not put that number on him right now. He may be in playing in the field everyday, but my guess is that teams would be hesitant to build a major deal around him considering the elbow problems. If the Brewers get low-balled on Hiura's number, then they keep him and if he's not in a deal it becomes very difficult to add up enough surplus dollars to swing a deal for a player like Realmuto.

 

As a mock Marlin's representative, today my ask for Realmuto would be:

-Keston Hiura

-Corbin Burnes

-Brandon Woodruff or Freddy Peralta (Brewers pick)

-Corey Ray

-Jacob Nottingham

The 4 non-Hiura prospects add up to approximately 47.3 million in surplus value, so using the 60 million baseline (which is the mimium), it would only value Hiura at 12.7 million which is basically "top 10 organizational prospect" status and would be too low IMO. But 60 million is the minimum for Realmuto, 70 million might be a better representation of what he'll actually bring. That would put the Hiura's value at 22.7 million which is just below the range of a #76-#100 hitter. It's not crazy to think the majority opinion among MLB GMs would have Hiura in that group considering some of the issues (elbow, defense, slow start against RHP this season). So even though at first glance that ask might seem crazy, it wouldn't be out of line for the Marlin's to request something like that.

 

What are you using to assign value to prospects? How do you come up with the 4 'non-Hiura prospects' being worth $47.3M? Just wondering.

[reillymcshane]

 

As a mock Marlin's representative, today my ask for Realmuto would be:

-Keston Hiura

-Corbin Burnes

-Brandon Woodruff or Freddy Peralta (Brewers pick)

-Corey Ray

-Jacob Nottingham

All the valuations aside, I would dislike this deal immensely. I'd love Realmuto, but not at this price.

[pacopete4]

The valuation seems off.

[coolhandluke121]

Even a clearly superior team can lose in the playoffs because they're so short compared to the regular season. I prefer to try to maximize the number of playoff appearances, as opposed to putting all your eggs in one basket.

I agree with you as I also favor moves that increase the likelihood that the Brewers field a good team for several years, but I would add that even with maximizing the number of playoff appearances there are obviously still no guarantees.

 

I think the Washington Nationals of the past 6-7 seasons illustrate just how difficult it can be for a well assembled team to win a championship even given a longer window to be competitive. The Nationals have won 95 or more games in four of the past six seasons, but yet they have never even reached the NLCS. Imagine how frustrating it would be to have that amount of talent for a stretch of several years and continually fail to advance beyond of the Divisional Series. I am not saying the Nationals necessarily did anything wrong (well maybe aside from shutting down Strasburg in 2012), but I would guess that, barring a World Series appearance this season, many of their fans will consider the 2010's to have been somewhat of a disappointment.

 

Yeah, there's no guarantee either way. But personally I'd much rather be consistently into the team and liking their chances of making the playoffs every year than risk what we had in the first decade of Mark A's ownership. I felt they decimated their talent pipeline and still weren't championship favorites, and they probably should have made the playoffs several more times. I mean, they still could have made the playoffs without Greinke, and imagine have Odorizzi, Cain, and Escobar for several years. Imagine having Brantley, too. And who knows, maybe they could have stolen a title along the way despite not being as good as the 2011 team on paper. It was usually pretty disappointing being a Brewer fan because you were often not even confident they'd win 85 games despite having Braun, Prince, Weeks, Hart, and Yo.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd add that given Reyes coming up, O'neill turning into Khris Davis Jr. potentially, etc. and the Cubs probably still being pretty good the next 3 years, I'd further like to play the long game and not put all of our eggs in one basket.

 

We' have to have a substantial lead right now before I'd be OK emptying things out. The above paragraph does suggest that we're going to have tough competition for several years, but the last thing I want to see happen is emptying our farm system out for Machado or Realmuto with a 2 game divisional lead and have the Cubs get white hot and win 98 games and we lose the Wild Card game.

 

Yes, I get the idea that getting Realmuto means a good MLB team for 2-3 more years, but I'd rather keep the pipeline stocked.

 

If we've fallen short of the playoffs or going very far in 2-3 years, then we can talk about getting more impressive, maybe.

[KeithStone53151]

 

As a mock Marlin's representative, today my ask for Realmuto would be:

-Keston Hiura

-Corbin Burnes

-Brandon Woodruff or Freddy Peralta (Brewers pick)

-Corey Ray

-Jacob Nottingham

All the valuations aside, I would dislike this deal immensely. I'd love Realmuto, but not at this price.

 

This ask seems no less insane than the Rays asking price on Archer. That's more than Yelich cost, and Yelich in my opinion is far more valuable than realmuto.

 

Adam's offer of Burnes, Nottingham, Ray, Carmona is close. Burnes and Nottingham alone is probably equal to the Indians offer, tacking on Ray and Carmona makes it a better offer. I'd be more inclined to do it if I could swap Burnes and Peralta. That still feels like a lot. Burnes/Peralta and Nottingham are very natural centerpieces in this deal, I'd probably avoid giving up Carmona if possible given our lack of SS depth in the system. As for Ray, the value he'd have at the deadline fits reasonably well. But he's also trending upward, I'll trust Stearns and Co. judgement on whether the time is right to move him for maximum value.

 

As far as this offer, I wouldn't be willing to go too much higher...and a team like the Nationals could(and really should given Harper's pending FA) easily blow us away by including Robles or Soto in a package deal for Realmuto.

 

For me, Hiura is off limits on a Realmuto trade so long as the front office thinks he can stick at 2b. I wouldn't even consider moving him unless we were looking at a Chris Sale to the Red Sox type situation.