J.T. Realmuto

[JosephC]

Well, I figured Burnes, Erceg, Supak and Nottingham would get the deal done. That's one Top 50 guy, and two more in Erceg and Nottingham that are likely on the cusp, plus another solid SP prospect in Supak.

 

Personally, I wouldn't do it, as it severely limits the ability to make a deal for starting pitching later on. Also, I believe that Nottingham is the real deal, and while he may never be as valuable as Realmuto, he has the tools to come close.

 

I realize you wouldn't do it, but that's pretty close. As a mock Marlin's representative, I'd do a deal if Ray was substituted for Supak and Nottingham. So the deal would be Realmuto for Burnes, Erceg and Ray. Brewers could also throw in Bandy to clear the roster spot for adding Realmuto, but it would certainly qualify as an unnecessary part of the deal.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Don't know if we could afford it but taking back a contract could help diminish the assets needed to give up. Castro would be my number 1 target since he's pretty good and we have a need at 2B and he's only signed through next year, Tazawa has a $7 million contract this year then is a FA which you'd assume we could absorb and $7 million (a little less since it would be prorated) isn't nothing to the Marlins.

[bill hAll Star]

Don't know if we could afford it but taking back a contract could help diminish the assets needed to give up. Castro would be my number 1 target since he's pretty good and we have a need at 2B and he's only signed through next year, Tazawa has a $7 million contract this year then is a FA which you'd assume we could absorb and $7 million (a little less since it would be prorated) isn't nothing to the Marlins.

 

I think at this point, the Marlins are pretty set on the shedding contracts unless somebody wants to take on Chen.

 

Other than Stanton, I don't think they were ever really motivated to give guys away and to take cost/money as the only motivation in the trade.

 

Their longterm outlook is pretty good now in terms of player contracts. Taking a few million bucks off their hand wouldn't be of zero value, but I don't think it's a motivation really as shady as they seem at this point. They do eventually want to win again in a few years.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Don't know if we could afford it but taking back a contract could help diminish the assets needed to give up. Castro would be my number 1 target since he's pretty good and we have a need at 2B and he's only signed through next year, Tazawa has a $7 million contract this year then is a FA which you'd assume we could absorb and $7 million (a little less since it would be prorated) isn't nothing to the Marlins.

 

I think at this point, the Marlins are pretty set on the shedding contracts unless somebody wants to take on Chen.

 

Other than Stanton, I don't think they were ever really motivated to give guys away and to take cost/money as the only motivation in the trade.

 

Their longterm outlook is pretty good now in terms of player contracts. Taking a few million bucks off their hand wouldn't be of zero value, but I don't think it's a motivation really as shady as they seem at this point. They do eventually want to win again in a few years.

True, but I still think they are trying to put as much to bottom line as possible. Agreeing to take back one or even both the guys I mentioned maybe means you don't need to give up Burnes and could get away with using only Woodruff or even Suter (if they like him) as the main pitcher in a package.

 

Something like Woodruff, Villar, one or two of Erceg, Lutz, Dubon, Ray, a lower level lotto ticket and like Broxton for some major league filler could conceivable do it with taking back salary. Throw in Bandy or something too if they want a catcher replacement.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Don't know if we could afford it but taking back a contract could help diminish the assets needed to give up. Castro would be my number 1 target since he's pretty good and we have a need at 2B and he's only signed through next year, Tazawa has a $7 million contract this year then is a FA which you'd assume we could absorb and $7 million (a little less since it would be prorated) isn't nothing to the Marlins.

 

I think at this point, the Marlins are pretty set on the shedding contracts unless somebody wants to take on Chen.

 

Other than Stanton, I don't think they were ever really motivated to give guys away and to take cost/money as the only motivation in the trade.

 

Their longterm outlook is pretty good now in terms of player contracts. Taking a few million bucks off their hand wouldn't be of zero value, but I don't think it's a motivation really as shady as they seem at this point. They do eventually want to win again in a few years.

True, but I still think they are trying to put as much to bottom line as possible. Agreeing to take back one or even both the guys I mentioned maybe means you don't need to give up Burnes and could get away with using only Woodruff or even Suter (if they like him) as the main pitcher in a package.

 

Something like Woodruff, Villar, one or two of Erceg, Lutz, Dubon, Ray, a lower level lotto ticket and like Broxton for some major league filler could conceivable do it with taking back salary. Throw in Bandy or something too if they want a catcher replacement.

 

Realmuto has huge trade value. Other teams also know what the Brewers have in the minors. They wouldn't sniff him unless Burnes or Peralta were going back. A team like the Marlins is going to have absolutely no use for guys like Suter, Villar and Broxton.

[Mr Southpaw]

My bottom line is if you don't get some sort of discount, don't make the trade.

[bill hAll Star]

Don't know if we could afford it but taking back a contract could help diminish the assets needed to give up. Castro would be my number 1 target since he's pretty good and we have a need at 2B and he's only signed through next year, Tazawa has a $7 million contract this year then is a FA which you'd assume we could absorb and $7 million (a little less since it would be prorated) isn't nothing to the Marlins.

 

I think at this point, the Marlins are pretty set on the shedding contracts unless somebody wants to take on Chen.

 

Other than Stanton, I don't think they were ever really motivated to give guys away and to take cost/money as the only motivation in the trade.

 

Their longterm outlook is pretty good now in terms of player contracts. Taking a few million bucks off their hand wouldn't be of zero value, but I don't think it's a motivation really as shady as they seem at this point. They do eventually want to win again in a few years.

True, but I still think they are trying to put as much to bottom line as possible. Agreeing to take back one or even both the guys I mentioned maybe means you don't need to give up Burnes and could get away with using only Woodruff or even Suter (if they like him) as the main pitcher in a package.

 

Something like Woodruff, Villar, one or two of Erceg, Lutz, Dubon, Ray, a lower level lotto ticket and like Broxton for some major league filler could conceivable do it with taking back salary. Throw in Bandy or something too if they want a catcher replacement.

 

Not everyone can take on $5 million (or whatever one of those relievers' prorated salary is at that point of the year), but if the whispers around the league are, "you can pull a major prospect out of your package if you take on Tazawa or Castro's contract" (none of which are bad deals), I think you'd see a flock of teams which would then create a bidding war and force you to put those prospects right back in the package.

 

"All we have to do is take on a fair value reliever or pay a fairly-paid Castro for 1.5 years?" I think GMs would be flocking to that. Taking on Chen or Prado are different stories, I guess, but I think the Marlins are past the point of trying to attach one of those guys to a trade. They will have a basement ledger book the next few years no matter what.

[JosephC]

I think at this point, the Marlins are pretty set on the shedding contracts unless somebody wants to take on Chen.

 

Other than Stanton, I don't think they were ever really motivated to give guys away and to take cost/money as the only motivation in the trade.

 

 

Right before the deals started, the Marlins apparently made it known that they wanted to trade Mike Stanton, Dee Gordon and Martin Prado and moving those three contracts would allow them to stay under their self-imposed payroll limit. They were able to move Stanton and Gordon but were not able to move Prado. I think he's the only player the Marlins would be looking to dump at this point (would have to be a pretty fancy deal as Prado would have to carry negative surplus value with the injuries really mounting up). Anybody else on their roster would likely command fair market value.

[Oxy]

Okay, so what would it take to get Realmuto + Prado? Woodruff, Perez, and Bethancourt/Nottingham/Pina? Is that too much cash to put on the payroll next year?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Okay, so what would it take to get Realmuto + Prado? Woodruff, Perez, and Bethancourt/Nottingham/Pina? Is that too much cash to put on the payroll next year?

 

Why would the Marlins want players like Perez, Bethancourt or Pina? They are rebuilding. They are going to want top prospects. Even with taking Prado, it is going to cost a mint. Just maybe it would be one of Burnes or Peralta, and not both.

[Oxy]

Yeah, they probably wouldn't want Pina. We would likely drop Perez or Prado though, so we'd just be giving them first dibs if they wanted one of them.

 

Woodruff is a top prospect. I think we could still offer a very competitive package without trading Burnes, Peralta or Hiura.

[Outlander]

If Prado is in the discussion it drops the price quite a bit because on its own taking on Prado would equal the Brewers getting a nice prospect in retuen. Two prospects plus taking on Prado might get Realmuto but not sure how badly the Marlins want to get rid of him. One of Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta plus say Ray for Prado and Realmuto.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If Prado is in the discussion it drops the price quite a bit because on its own taking on Prado would equal the Brewers getting a nice prospect in retuen. Two prospects plus taking on Prado might get Realmuto but not sure how badly the Marlins want to get rid of him. One of Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta plus say Ray for Prado and Realmuto.

 

I would love for Ray to continue to rake in AA, or even get promoted to AAA and keep improving his stock so that he's a much more valuable trade chip. Trading him right now would be selling low on a potentially very valuable player. So far, this season at least, he is living up to that high draft position. Lets see if it continues, then talk about trading him as a centerpiece come the end of July.

 

Right now I'm sure most teams have Burnes as probably a step above Woodruff and Peralta value-wise, as he hasn't done anything to dull his shine. Woodruff has just been ok in his MLB time and his AAA time last year, while Peralta is still pretty green, and doesn't have the eye-popping fastball to make opposing GMs swoon. If they all continue to perform well at AAA, though, all will be high value guys. Others like Ponce, Supak and Ortiz are starting to force themselves into the conversation as well. The minor league system has more pitching talent than I can ever remember. That's why dealing a guy like Burnes wouldn't be such a bad thing.

[Outlander]

I would agree that Ray hit his low point in the off season and that was probably the opportunity for teams, including the Marlins, to grab him. Even in a short couple of weeks things are starting to look up for Ray and he could be a nice centerpiece if he keeps it up.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Burnes going nowhere, especially not for a catcher. Imho

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Burnes going nowhere, especially not for a catcher. Imho

 

I agree. That's why Realmuto won't be a Brewer. The need just doesn't justify the cost.

 

If/when Burnes is dealt, it will be for a controllable top-of-rotation guy.

[JosephC]

Okay, so what would it take to get Realmuto + Prado? Woodruff, Perez, and Bethancourt/Nottingham/Pina? Is that too much cash to put on the payroll next year?

 

I don't think the Brewers have the money to eat Prado's salary for this year and next. But say they did, as the mock Marlin's representative I'd want something like this:

 

Brewers get: C-J.T. Realmuto, IF-Martin Prado

Marlins get: RHP-Luis Ortiz, OF-Corey Ray, RHP-Trey Supak, RHP-Zack Brown

[wallus]

Okay, so what would it take to get Realmuto + Prado? Woodruff, Perez, and Bethancourt/Nottingham/Pina? Is that too much cash to put on the payroll next year?

 

I don't think the Brewers have the money to eat Prado's salary for this year and next. But say they did, as the mock Marlin's representative I'd want something like this:

 

Brewers get: C-J.T. Realmuto, IF-Martin Prado

Marlins get: RHP-Luis Ortiz, OF-Corey Ray, RHP-Trey Supak, RHP-Zack Brown

 

Where do I sign?

[MadThinker88]

Okay, so what would it take to get Realmuto + Prado? Woodruff, Perez, and Bethancourt/Nottingham/Pina? Is that too much cash to put on the payroll next year?

 

I don't think the Brewers have the money to eat Prado's salary for this year and next. But say they did, as the mock Marlin's representative I'd want something like this:

 

Brewers get: C-J.T. Realmuto, IF-Martin Prado

Marlins get: RHP-Luis Ortiz, OF-Corey Ray, RHP-Trey Supak, RHP-Zack Brown

 

I can understand the willingness to part with Ortiz and trying to cash in while Ray appears to have some life/ value again.

That said, I can't see the Marlins settling for a pitcher like Ortiz (that has never pitched 100 IP in a single season) and letting the Brewers keep all of Burnes/ Woodruff/ Peralta. Getting a top arm for them is key, one that can be in the majors/ rotation by the end of 2019 (if not sooner)...

[JosephC]

The Brewers would be eating over 27 million in salary over the rest of 2018 and 2019 for taking on Martin Prado's contract. Even if the Marlin's really made this offer, I'd wager that the Brewers would turn it down due to the financial impact of Prado's 2019 salary (15 million).

[adambr2]

Going to use the accepted Lucroy trade as a comp and work up from there, (Mejia, Chang, Armstrong, Allen), the one to the Indians, not the one to the Rangers because that also included Jeffress.

 

Nottingham seems like a natural inclusion to this deal, but he doesn't carry the value that Mejia did so you'll have to top that elsewhere. So Burnes is the headliner, probably as good or better than Mejia was at the time.

 

So you've got Burnes and Nottingham so far. I think you need to top the Lucroy deal as Realmuto is younger and more controlled than Lucroy was at the time.

 

So you need a strong 3rd piece, and here I'd say with his resurgence, Corey Ray fits the bill. My preference would be to include Phillips or Grisham instead, my gut tells me the Marlins would prefer Ray.

 

My final piece is Jean Carmona -- an attractive enough inclusion to interest the Marlins as a strong lottery ticket, while also being far enough away to make the Brewers comfortable including him.

 

So the deal looks like Burnes, Ray, Nottingham, and Carmona for Realmuto. Thoughts, too little, too much?

[pacopete4]

It feels like too much but probably isn’t.

[adambr2]

It feels like too much but probably isn’t.

 

Yeah, its definitely going to hurt just like we knew getting Yelich would. No way of getting around that without just avoiding doing it, unfortunately. However, some good things about it IMO:

 

1) We hang onto our top prospect and 2B of the future who the Marlins will surely be demanding.

 

2) We cash in high on 2 guys in Ray and Nottingham who both frankly had pretty deflated value before the season.

 

3) Most importantly, we are totally set at catcher through 2020, fill a major weakness and add another stud to the top of our lineup which gets even deeper. Getting Yelich was great but you could argue that OF was already a strength. Catcher isn't, but it would be now.

 

You could argue that the farm can sustain the losses here. Burnes hurts, but we've still got Peralta, Ortiz, Medeiros, Ponce, Supak, etc. OF is getting thin, but with what we've got at the MLB level it's not a huge concern and there are still some nice OF prospects in the system.

 

1) Cain

2) Yelich

3) Realmuto

4) Shaw

5) Santana/Braun

6) Thames/Aguilar

7) Villar

8) Arcia

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm just not seeing catcher as such a major weakness. Pina got off to a slow start but over the last few weeks, he's swung the bat really well and his defense is stellar. They need a better backup than Bandy, but they have that guy in Bethancourt. I'm confounded that he hasn't yet replaced Bandy.

 

Could they use one more big bat? Certainly. That guy's out there. He's a rental and won't cost as much as Realmuto, but he'd make the lineup one of the best in the game. That's Machado.

[Eye Black]

So the deal looks like Burnes, Ray, Nottingham, and Carmona for Realmuto. Thoughts, too little, too much?

To me this seems close to what it should cost. I could see them requesting someone like Erceg in place of Ray, which may be a dealbreaker for me. It would be a painful hit to the system (as to be expected), but I think I would make the deal you outlined above for Realmuto.