J.T. Realmuto

[MrTPlush]

We can sign a FA then. If we are going to purge the farm we need a really good pitcher. We don’t need really good hitters at every single position, so me can be meh. We will need pitching and prospects left for mid season acquisitions.

 

 

That seems backwards because there are many more good pitchers available in free agency. If it's as fair as the Yelich trade, the Brewers should absolutely jump at the chance. The starting pitchers available in trade aren't nearly as appealing as Realmuto as core pieces for the window the Brewers are building.

 

Also, this isn't like basketball where having more good scorers can lead to diminishing returns. You can basically add just as many expected wins by adding .5 runs per game as you can by giving up .5 runs fewer. (There are some nuances like the variance in runs being higher with better offense and pitching, but it's still an adequate rule of thumb.) You could argue that you need pitching for the playoffs, but that's been a bit of a myth. You just need to outscore the other team, just like in the regular season.

 

Pitching depth and elite bullpens can really excel in the postseason. That is because of all the off days allowing you to constantly switch pitchers creating large problems for even good offenses.

 

I wouldn't trade for Archer for what it is worth and I wouldn't trade for Realmuto. I think both are a big waste of prospect resources right now. I would sign a FA pitcher though. Something may become available in July or next offseason that are a much better use of the farm.

[StearnsFTW]

We don't need a catcher. No chance id give them what they need.

 

Pina was a 30-year-old rookie last year and had a .715 OPS in 12 minor league seasons, many of them in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and almost always as a prospect who was roughly the average age for players at the same level. There's a decent chance he's worth less than 1 WAR this year.

 

Also, for all the debates about age-related decline going on in the Archer and Yu threads, catcher is the most blatant example of a position where you absolutely can't trust a guy after 30. Pina will turn 31 early this season and Vogt is already 33.

 

If you assume Pina's going to duplicate last year's success, can't you assume Suter will too? Suter was more effective in the minors and is in his physical prime. By that logic, you could say they need a catcher more than they need a starter.

 

They also don't have any projected future starting catchers in the entire organization at that position, or even a sure-fire future MLB backup. There's a very good chance they will need a catcher. Unlike Archer, Realmuto is an example of a guy who's probably worthy of a premium prospect package because he plays a position that's harder to fill by other means and is younger (still pre-arbitration in fact).

 

Pina is a tremendous defender. If he hits, great. I believe he is at least partially responsible for our pitching over achieving.

 

Vogt sucks. No argument there

 

The Brewers don't need to go out of their way for a catcher. These threads avlbout Realmuto and Lucroy are pointless in my opinion. Realmuto because the cost is simply too high, Lucroy because I believe they have a better option already.

[82brewcrew82]

Sure adding Realmuto would be a good thing but I would only consider it after having shored up the pitching. Just like acquiring Yelich and Cain, none of it means much unless they get the pitching fixed.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's a similar problem that I mentioned with Santana or signing Walker now. Where are you batting him? Cain, Yelich, Santana(if not traded), Shaw, Braun, Thames/Realmuto, Realmuto/Aguilar, Arcia.

 

You ruin what advantage he brings as a Catcher offensively by batting him in a spot in the order where he's what? 90 PAs less if in the top 4 in order? I'd take Lucroy at that spot over Realmuto because if he's the Lucroy post-Brewers, you're batting him low enough in the order. If he becomes the Brewer Lucroy again, that signing will be really good with the unexpected results.

 

But really, Pina/Vogt is a cheap perfect small market Catcher duo at this moment for a team adding so much salary. Realmuto is a Super 2 player that will continually get expensive, unlike the Lucroy contract, and no being a Super 2 makes no sense on his part to take a team friendly buyout/extension. In 2 years with good production he'll be over 10mil in salary. And if he's not, You really made a mistake trading away the cost in prospects to acquire him.

[MadThinker88]

Word starting to come out that the Astros are talking about making a deal to get JT.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/marlins-astros-discussing-j-t-realmuto.html

 

Sounds like some Houston minor league talent that was not available in trade for Gerrit Cole MIGHT be available for JT.

[pacopete4]

Smart move on the Astros part. Catching department needs an upgrade. Three-way deal... let’s grab McCann and dump Vogt.

[adambr2]

It sounds like the Marlins are definitely open to moving Realmuto this year and the Mets went after him in the off-season. Is there any move we could make here that would also help with our upcoming roster crunch?

 

Realmuto for Woodruff, Nottingham, Gatewood and Supak, just spitballing. In the ballpark? Not enough?

 

Realmuto is a tremendous starter and him and Pina would be one of the best defensive combos in the league.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It sounds like the Marlins are definitely open to moving Realmuto this year and the Mets went after him in the off-season. Is there any move we could make here that would also help with our upcoming roster crunch?

 

Realmuto for Woodruff, Nottingham, Gatewood and Supak, just spitballing. In the ballpark? Not enough?

 

Realmuto is a tremendous starter and him and Pina would be one of the best defensive combos in the league.

 

Replace Woodruff with Burnes and Gatewood with Erceg, and they would probably have interest. I like Realmuto, but he's gonna cost a haul similar to what Yelich got. There aren't many catchers out there who are young, are strong defenders, hit well and are also very athletic.

 

I guess I don't consider catcher that big of a need, though. Pina and Vogt when he comes back are a solid tandem, and Bethancourt and Nottingham are at AAA for depth. Nottingham is finally showing how great of a prospect he actually is.

[3and2Fastball]

Realmuto to the Mets seems likely. First Realmuto needs to show he is healthy, though. He hasn't played an inning yet this season.

 

I like Manny Pina a lot but he does seem like a regression candidate.

[adambr2]

I don't think of it as a real need, more of a value add like Yelich. Keep adding good young players to the MLB roster and good things will happen.

 

I know people hated giving up what we had to give up for Yelich, but it was a pretty big roster crunch solver on top of getting a great player. We still have more to do, there's no way we can keep everyone that deserves a spot next season.

[3and2Fastball]

Yelich is under control for 5 years. Realmuto, I believe, is a free agent after the 2020 season...

[adambr2]

Yelich is under control for 5 years. Realmuto, I believe, is a free agent after the 2020 season...

 

Yeah I mean you're not going to get 5 years out of every trade, that was huge with Yelich. But through 2020 is still a good chunk of control.

[jerichoholicninja]

Unless Realmuto can give you 7 innings of 2 run ball he's not going to help that much.

[JosephC]

Realmuto for Woodruff, Nottingham, Gatewood and Supak, just spitballing. In the ballpark? Not enough?

 

 

Realmuto is a solid 3 WAR player. 3 x 9.16 (value per WAR) = 27.48 x 3 seasons of control = 82.44 million of value and I'd guess his arbitration earnings run somewhere around 16 million. 82-16 = 66 million and then multiply it by 0.972 since these last two weeks represented 2.78% of his remaining years of control. 64 million is a reasonable ask for the Marlins, I could see them being happy with 80% of that number but get below that and there is really no reason to move him. He isn't making a whole lot this season so it's not like he needs to be a part of a salary dump.

 

I'd put the prospect surplus value of the named Brewer prospects as follows:

-Woodruff = 17.86 million

-Gatewood = 5.72 million

-Supak = 5.72 million

-Nottingham = 2.29 million

Total = 31.59 million

IMO that package is way short for a player like Realmuto. But at least you started with Woodruff which is a good enough name where it would catch the Marlin's attention. I'd listen to a revised package if you have one.

[wallus]

Unless Realmuto can give you 7 innings of 2 run ball he's not going to help that much.

 

The offense is the problem so yes he would help.

[adambr2]

Realmuto for Woodruff, Nottingham, Gatewood and Supak, just spitballing. In the ballpark? Not enough?

 

 

Realmuto is a solid 3 WAR player. 3 x 9.16 (value per WAR) = 27.48 x 3 seasons of control = 82.44 million of value and I'd guess his arbitration earnings run somewhere around 16 million. 82-16 = 66 million and then multiply it by 0.972 since these last two weeks represented 2.78% of his remaining years of control. 64 million is a reasonable ask for the Marlins, I could see them being happy with 80% of that number but get below that and there is really no reason to move him. He isn't making a whole lot this season so it's not like he needs to be a part of a salary dump.

 

I'd put the prospect surplus value of the named Brewer prospects as follows:

-Woodruff = 17.86 million

-Gatewood = 5.72 million

-Supak = 5.72 million

-Nottingham = 2.29 million

Total = 31.59 million

IMO that package is way short for a player like Realmuto. But at least you started with Woodruff which is a good enough name where it would catch the Marlin's attention. I'd listen to a revised package if you have one.

 

Here's the problem I have with this kind of valuation:

 

If you even peg Pina as a 1 WAR player, which seems entirely reasonable, that puts his surplus value at around $46M given 5 years control, so deducting arbitration and this year prorated still leaves him around $30M, which could balance this if you substitute Pina for Nottinham, which I would do but I doubt that moves the needle at all for the Marlins.

 

I think the $9M per WAR estimate really needs to be revised after this last off-season.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't think it is a stretch of the imagination to expect Realmuto to out produce Pina. I just don't want to give up Peralta or Burnes to get him. Nottingham + a lower level pitcher + somebody maybe, but I think the Marlins can get a better offer than that.

[MadThinker88]

I don't think it is a stretch of the imagination to expect Realmuto to out produce Pina. I just don't want to give up Peralta or Burnes to get him. Nottingham + a lower level pitcher + somebody maybe, but I think the Marlins can get a better offer than that.

 

The Marlins are holding out for a heck of a lot more than that (part in bold above). Heck each time the Nationals inquired this offseason, the Marlins were steadfast in wanting Victor Robles as part of the return.

 

It might not cost the Brewers 2 of Burnes/ Peralta/ Woodruff, but a package for JT starts with 1 of them and likely includes 1 of Hiura/ Lutz (creating a 2 for 1 deal) or Erceg plus another significant 3rd piece.

 

While I agree with you I would not want to give up that much, if I really see JT as a needed piece for 2018 and beyond, I will need to make a hard choice (pay the price for JT or stay with what I have OR find another trade target)..

[jerichoholicninja]

Is Realmuto an upgrade over the current catching options? Yes. Is the amount of upgrade worth what it's going to cost. No way.

[JosephC]

Realmuto for Woodruff, Nottingham, Gatewood and Supak, just spitballing. In the ballpark? Not enough?

 

 

Realmuto is a solid 3 WAR player. 3 x 9.16 (value per WAR) = 27.48 x 3 seasons of control = 82.44 million of value and I'd guess his arbitration earnings run somewhere around 16 million. 82-16 = 66 million and then multiply it by 0.972 since these last two weeks represented 2.78% of his remaining years of control. 64 million is a reasonable ask for the Marlins, I could see them being happy with 80% of that number but get below that and there is really no reason to move him. He isn't making a whole lot this season so it's not like he needs to be a part of a salary dump.

 

I'd put the prospect surplus value of the named Brewer prospects as follows:

-Woodruff = 17.86 million

-Gatewood = 5.72 million

-Supak = 5.72 million

-Nottingham = 2.29 million

Total = 31.59 million

IMO that package is way short for a player like Realmuto. But at least you started with Woodruff which is a good enough name where it would catch the Marlin's attention. I'd listen to a revised package if you have one.

 

Here's the problem I have with this kind of valuation:

 

If you even peg Pina as a 1 WAR player, which seems entirely reasonable, that puts his surplus value at around $46M given 5 years control, so deducting arbitration and this year prorated still leaves him around $30M, which could balance this if you substitute Pina for Nottinham, which I would do but I doubt that moves the needle at all for the Marlins.

 

I think the $9M per WAR estimate really needs to be revised after this last off-season.

 

I agree with what you say here. Scooter Gennett is the perfect example. When the Brewers released him, I would guess that the majority of teams in the league probably viewed him as a 0.6-0.7 WAR player and he had 4 years of control left. But even so, he obviously was seen as having no value by the rest of the league because the Brewers could not swing a deal for him and ended up just cutting him loose.

 

It does appear that there is a threshold that a player needs to pass in order to achieve trade value. I've toyed with the idea of trying to get an estimate of where that threshold lies and subtracting it out of a player's total WAR for the bigger name players. However, there have been too many trades in the past couple years where the numbers matched up perfectly (Quintana and Gray are two examples). So just to pull numbers out of my rear end with no solid statistical backing, it seems that once a player reached an ~2 WAR value or above they generally get "full credit" for their WAR estimates on the trade market. Get down in the area of 0.6 WAR or less, then the player likely won't bring back full WAR value and could very well be seen as having no real value (Keon Broxton?, seems there was plenty of interest him and the Brewers probably wanted to deal him, but since they didn't and he wound up in AAA I have to believe the offers for him were pretty terrible). Get in that 1-2 WAR area and it's probably a real grey area.

 

Nonetheless, Realmuto is definitely in the upper category here. I don't see the Marlins giving him away as he doesn't make big money yet. And Realmuto would be coveted by many teams in the league. A back-end top 100 pitcher with no other top 10 organizational prospects doesn't get this done. All but a guarantee that another team would easily outbid that offer unless the Marlins really love the 4 players that were offered. And let's be honest, Woodruff is not a player that other teams would trip over to get at this point. Last year the guy was pitching down the stretch in a pennant race, he's 25 years old, the Brewers have shipped him back to AAA in favor of a journeyman like Junior Guerra. What in that equation makes him look like he would be highly coveted by opposing teams? He still definitely has solid prospect value, but teaming him up with 3 other non-top 10 organizational prospects to get a player like Realmuto...package seems real short to me.

 

Only one way I could see the Brewers getting Realmuto as a discount price in terms of surrendering prospects, and that would be to take Martin Prado and the approximate 26.25 million left on his deal. Since they weren't going to give a starting pitcher a two year deal at the end of free agency, I very much doubt the Brewers would even have the financial flexibility to do this.

[pacopete4]

Is Realmuto an upgrade over the current catching options? Yes. Is the amount of upgrade worth what it's going to cost. No way.

 

This is where I am at with it. I would love Realmuto in our lineup and watch him catch but we just can't be giving up what it would take to get him right now (or maybe ever).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Realmuto for Woodruff, Nottingham, Gatewood and Supak, just spitballing. In the ballpark? Not enough?

 

 

Realmuto is a solid 3 WAR player. 3 x 9.16 (value per WAR) = 27.48 x 3 seasons of control = 82.44 million of value and I'd guess his arbitration earnings run somewhere around 16 million. 82-16 = 66 million and then multiply it by 0.972 since these last two weeks represented 2.78% of his remaining years of control. 64 million is a reasonable ask for the Marlins, I could see them being happy with 80% of that number but get below that and there is really no reason to move him. He isn't making a whole lot this season so it's not like he needs to be a part of a salary dump.

 

I'd put the prospect surplus value of the named Brewer prospects as follows:

-Woodruff = 17.86 million

-Gatewood = 5.72 million

-Supak = 5.72 million

-Nottingham = 2.29 million

Total = 31.59 million

IMO that package is way short for a player like Realmuto. But at least you started with Woodruff which is a good enough name where it would catch the Marlin's attention. I'd listen to a revised package if you have one.

 

Well, I figured Burnes, Erceg, Supak and Nottingham would get the deal done. That's one Top 50 guy, and two more in Erceg and Nottingham that are likely on the cusp, plus another solid SP prospect in Supak.

 

Personally, I wouldn't do it, as it severely limits the ability to make a deal for starting pitching later on. Also, I believe that Nottingham is the real deal, and while he may never be as valuable as Realmuto, he has the tools to come close.

[TURBO]

With Nottingham waiting in the wings, NO WAY I'd empty the farm for a catcher. NO WAY!

 

What some of you are proposing is insane. We are going to need to invest in starting pitching, and soon, any bullets we have left and are willing to trade have to be spent in that direction, not a catcher.

[pacopete4]

With Nottingham waiting in the wings, NO WAY I'd empty the farm for a catcher. NO WAY!

 

We are going to need to use some of our young studs for invest in starting pitching, and soon. ,any bullets we have left and are willing to trade have to be spent in that direction, not a catcher.

Now I agree.

[MadThinker88]

With Nottingham waiting in the wings, NO WAY I'd empty the farm for a catcher. NO WAY!

 

What some of you are proposing is insane. We are going to need to invest in starting pitching, and soon, any bullets we have left and are willing to trade have to be spent in that direction, not a catcher.

 

Turbo, I feel you are both correct and incorrect.

 

Yes, Nottingham is waiting in the wings but it is not a lock that he will be the answer behind the plate. IMHO it is more likely that multiple guys from Burnes/ Woodruff/ Peralta/ Ortiz/ Supak succeed on the mound than Nottingham behind the plate.

 

Yes, the cost to acquire JT would be high, almost prohibitive and it makes little sense to do so if Nottingham can be 'the guy'. But if Nottingham isn't the answer and internally there is little else, the choice is to stand pat (undesirable), pay the high cost (also undesirable) or find another trade target..