J.T. Realmuto

[MadThinker88]

Brewers: Realmuto and Castro

Marlins: Villar, Brinson and Ortiz

 

Castro

Santana

Braun

Shaw

Thames/Aguilar

Realmuto

Phillips/Broxton

Pitcher

Arcia

 

Looking at this from the Miami side, I think your almost there.

I believe it would take Brinson, Ortiz plus 1 other good piece just for JT Realmuto. I will list out some ideas for that missing part shortly.

 

With the other part of the deal Castro is making just under $24 million over the next 2 years so looking at that as a pure salary dump, Villar for Castro makes some sense. What I do not know is if Miami is looking at that salary dump possibility yet. It has been reported that the Marlins are looking to get Team Salary in the $90 Million range and with the moves so far, it appears that they are just about there. They might want to hold onto Castro at this point and see if a better market for him develops during the season for a July deadline move. From the Brewer perspective, Castro would help answer a few questions so they might need to sweeten the pot & pay a little more than just Villar (for Castro).

 

As for the missing part piece I alluded to earlier, I believe Miami would be looking for younger pitching or another INF position player to build around. I think it would come down to Isan Diaz OR a pitcher like Braden Webb/ Thomas Jankins being added to the trade package. I think the Brewers can add any of them to the trade package & withstand their loss without major problems long term.

[Devinep]

I wouldn’t be giving up Brinson the get Realmuto. He’s a clear upgrade from Pina but not enough to give up Brinson

[KeithStone53151]

I don't get the love for Yelich, Brewers already have a glut of OF, and Yelich stats not that great despite hitting in front of Stanton. Santana is a butcher in the field, but arguably has more upside as a hitter moving forward. I have to think that he's getting overrated in the advanced stats due to playing CF, where I doubt he'd be any better defensively than Broxton/Phillips.

 

Yelich's career numbers are better than anything Santana did prior to last year. His bat blows Broxton's out of the water. And at this point he's probably equal to or better than Braun. I really didn't think he was anything special either until I looked up his numbers. He's the high AVG, high OBP hitter this offense could really use and he's got 4 years of (albeit somewhat expensive) control left.

 

This is incredibly misleading(to the point of being meaningless) considering Santana had somewhat sporadic PA as a 22 year old and then dealt with a nagging should in his age 23 season(which he still posted near 800 OPS). Saying Yelich's career numbers are better than Santana's rookie year of sporadic PA and an injury plagued year is...yeah meaningless. Based on Santana's most recent season and minor league numbers against Yelich's track record, Santana is the more productive player at the plate and figures to be going forward. And no, Yelich is not equal to or better than Braun with the bat. Not yet.

 

That said, Yelich would most likely be an improvement in CF this year. I'd prefer to see the Brewers give our young players a look rather than trade for Yelich. Brinson has a very real chance of being better than Yelich going forward, he absolutely will be better defensively and is younger/cheaper. Phillips has a chance to be equally productive as he has more power, and will also be better defensively. Broxton is likely traded.

 

The Brewers will never be a team where we are completely set with stud players at every position. We always need to be bringing up cost-controlled talent as it develops, and cycling out players as they approach FA. Trading prospects for established players at every position not only drains the farm of talent, but it blocks off roster space and doesn't allow the talent we retain to continue development at the MLB level. That generally will lead to a "window" situation rather than being consistently competitive.

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't get the love for Yelich, Brewers already have a glut of OF, and Yelich stats not that great despite hitting in front of Stanton. Santana is a butcher in the field, but arguably has more upside as a hitter moving forward. I have to think that he's getting overrated in the advanced stats due to playing CF, where I doubt he'd be any better defensively than Broxton/Phillips.

 

Yelich's career numbers are better than anything Santana did prior to last year. His bat blows Broxton's out of the water. And at this point he's probably equal to or better than Braun. I really didn't think he was anything special either until I looked up his numbers. He's the high AVG, high OBP hitter this offense could really use and he's got 4 years of (albeit somewhat expensive) control left.

 

This is incredibly misleading(to the point of being meaningless) considering Santana had somewhat sporadic PA as a 22 year old and then dealt with a nagging should in his age 23 season(which he still posted near 800 OPS). Saying Yelich's career numbers are better than Santana's rookie year of sporadic PA and an injury plagued year is...yeah meaningless. Based on Santana's most recent season and minor league numbers against Yelich's track record, Santana is the more productive player at the plate and figures to be going forward. And no, Yelich is not equal to or better than Braun with the bat. Not yet.

 

That said, Yelich would most likely be an improvement in CF this year. I'd prefer to see the Brewers give our young players a look rather than trade for Yelich. Brinson has a very real chance of being better than Yelich going forward, he absolutely will be better defensively and is younger/cheaper. Phillips has a chance to be equally productive as he has more power, and will also be better defensively. Broxton is likely traded.

 

The Brewers will never be a team where we are completely set with stud players at every position. We always need to be bringing up cost-controlled talent as it develops, and cycling out players as they approach FA. Trading prospects for established players at every position not only drains the farm of talent, but it blocks off roster space and doesn't allow the talent we retain to continue development at the MLB level. That generally will lead to a "window" situation rather than being consistently competitive.

 

The point is that Yelich came up hitting and hasn't stopped. Santana had a great year last year but there's no guarantee his 2017 season is his true ability.

 

As for the Braun/Yelich comparison, Yelich was the better hitter last year and they're basically the same over the last two. Factor in age, defense, and Braun's constant injuries and Yelich is easily the better player.

[anglotiger]

The point is that Yelich came up hitting and hasn't stopped. Santana had a great year last year but there's no guarantee his 2017 season is his true ability.

 

So... am I misunderstanding or are you saying this uncertainty is a justification for trading Santana for Yelich and adding a lot more...?

 

(sincere question - I truly might be misunderstanding)

[mlloyd10]

I don't get the love for Yelich, Brewers already have a glut of OF, and Yelich stats not that great despite hitting in front of Stanton. Santana is a butcher in the field, but arguably has more upside as a hitter moving forward. I have to think that he's getting overrated in the advanced stats due to playing CF, where I doubt he'd be any better defensively than Broxton/Phillips.

 

Yelich had more AB's batting behind Stanton.

[KeithStone53151]

This is incredibly misleading(to the point of being meaningless) considering Santana had somewhat sporadic PA as a 22 year old and then dealt with a nagging should in his age 23 season(which he still posted near 800 OPS). Saying Yelich's career numbers are better than Santana's rookie year of sporadic PA and an injury plagued year is...yeah meaningless. Based on Santana's most recent season and minor league numbers against Yelich's track record, Santana is the more productive player at the plate and figures to be going forward. And no, Yelich is not equal to or better than Braun with the bat. Not yet.

 

That said, Yelich would most likely be an improvement in CF this year. I'd prefer to see the Brewers give our young players a look rather than trade for Yelich. Brinson has a very real chance of being better than Yelich going forward, he absolutely will be better defensively and is younger/cheaper. Phillips has a chance to be equally productive as he has more power, and will also be better defensively. Broxton is likely traded.

 

The Brewers will never be a team where we are completely set with stud players at every position. We always need to be bringing up cost-controlled talent as it develops, and cycling out players as they approach FA. Trading prospects for established players at every position not only drains the farm of talent, but it blocks off roster space and doesn't allow the talent we retain to continue development at the MLB level. That generally will lead to a "window" situation rather than being consistently competitive.

 

The point is that Yelich came up hitting and hasn't stopped. Santana had a great year last year but there's no guarantee his 2017 season is his true ability.

 

As for the Braun/Yelich comparison, Yelich was the better hitter last year and they're basically the same over the last two. Factor in age, defense, and Braun's constant injuries and Yelich is easily the better player.

 

Braun had the worst BABIP of his career last year, that sapped some of his hitting. If you factor in defense it might be close, but Braun is the better hitter.

 

As for Santana, he has mashed at every level of the minors as well and put together a very strong MLB season. It's absolutely fair that he could regress and 2017 isn't his true ability, but given his age and prior body of work it is more likely that he improves on his numbers in 2018 than regresses. If that holds true, he's a far better player than Yelich.

[jerichoholicninja]

The point is that Yelich came up hitting and hasn't stopped. Santana had a great year last year but there's no guarantee his 2017 season is his true ability.

 

So... am I misunderstanding or are you saying this uncertainty is a justification for trading Santana for Yelich and adding a lot more...?

 

(sincere question - I truly might be misunderstanding)

 

I have never once said to trade Santana.

 

Actually in other threads I have said that I could see Stearns trading Santana because of his atrocious defense but no where in this thread have I advocated for trading Santana and I have no idea how anyone came to that conclusion. I was simply using Santana as an example when someone earlier said that Yelich wouldn't improve out outfield and, in terms of MLB production, Santana is a one year wonder (so far) while Yelich has been a successful hitter (and better hitter than Santana prior to 2017) since the year he was called up.

[anglotiger]

The point is that Yelich came up hitting and hasn't stopped. Santana had a great year last year but there's no guarantee his 2017 season is his true ability.

 

So... am I misunderstanding or are you saying this uncertainty is a justification for trading Santana for Yelich and adding a lot more...?

 

(sincere question - I truly might be misunderstanding)

 

I have never once said to trade Santana.

 

Actually in other threads I have said that I could see Stearns trading Santana because of his atrocious defense but no where in this thread have I advocated for trading Santana and I have no idea how anyone came to that conclusion. I was simply using Santana as an example when someone earlier said that Yelich wouldn't improve out outfield and, in terms of MLB production, Santana is a one year wonder (so far) while Yelich has been a successful hitter (and better hitter than Santana prior to 2017) since the year he was called up.

 

Thanks for clarifying. I read that statement as support for trading Santana plus top prospects for Yelich but wanted to check if that was your intent.

[pacopete4]

Realmuto Wants Out

 

Do the Brewers have another package of players we could send over for this guy?

[Dantae]

I doubt it. It was reported Nationals wanted him, but Miami was asking for Robles. So, pretty insane expectations on what they want in return if you ask me. Would be a great addition though.

[pacopete4]

Just figure if our window is 4-5 years long, he would be a great addition to that. Still not sold on our catching situation.

[MadThinker88]

As I have posted on other threads, I can see Francisco Mejia being a catcher for the Marlins.

That said, is Mejia helping JT become a member of the Brewers or the Nationals as part of a 3 team deal..

[JCREW]

I’ll bite...

Marlins get Mejia and a lottery ticket from each of MKe and CLE

Cleveland gets Santana and Ortiz

Brewers get Realmuto

[KeithStone53151]

I’ll bite...

Marlins get Mejia and a lottery ticket from each of MKe and CLE

Cleveland gets Santana and Ortiz

Brewers get Realmuto

 

Santana needs to exclusively be utilized to get SP. I don't hate the general cost of that acquisition, but SP needs to be the target.

[coolhandluke121]

I’ll bite...

Marlins get Mejia and a lottery ticket from each of MKe and CLE

Cleveland gets Santana and Ortiz

Brewers get Realmuto

 

That would incredible for the Brewers and decent for the Marlins but I can't see Cleveland doing it. I think Milwaukee would have to add 2 prospects to the deal - one for Cleveland and one for Miami, to replace the one you have them getting from Cleveland. Mejia has tremendous value in this trade, and Realmuto has even more. Both teams need enough nickels and dimes to get their quarter back, so to speak.

[MadThinker88]

I’ll bite...

Marlins get Mejia and a lottery ticket from each of MKe and CLE

Cleveland gets Santana and Ortiz

Brewers get Realmuto

 

I think you have the beginnings of something there but a couple of issues.

 

Mejia's prospect value is in the neighborhood of Brinson (possibly a little higher due to position value). So you suggest Mejia & a lottery ticket (of some sort) is worth only Santana & Luis Ortiz? Cleveland would likely say the return is too light. Also I don't think Ortiz would interest them & adding another CLE piece to Mejia (going to Marlins) pushes it further out of balance.

 

Could the Marlins be sold on Mejia & 1 piece from MKE for JT? I think so (depending on that other piece).

 

I realize ANY inclusion of Burnes or Woodruff would not work so let's look at other possibilities.

 

Marlins get: Mejia & Jorge Lopez

Indians get: Santana & Freddy Peralta

Brewers get: JT

 

Thoughts?

[JCREW]

I’ll bite...

Marlins get Mejia and a lottery ticket from each of MKe and CLE

Cleveland gets Santana and Ortiz

Brewers get Realmuto

 

I think you have the beginnings of something there but a couple of issues.

 

Mejia's prospect value is in the neighborhood of Brinson (possibly a little higher due to position value). So you suggest Mejia & a lottery ticket (of some sort) is worth only Santana & Luis Ortiz? Cleveland would likely say the return is too light. Also I don't think Ortiz would interest them & adding another CLE piece to Mejia (going to Marlins) pushes it further out of balance.

 

Could the Marlins be sold on Mejia & 1 piece from MKE for JT? I think so (depending on that other piece).

 

I realize ANY inclusion of Burnes or Woodruff would not work so let's look at other possibilities.

 

Marlins get: Mejia & Jorge Lopez

Indians get: Santana & Freddy Peralta

Brewers get: JT

 

Thoughts?

 

Hah!

I was actually going to come back on and edit my post to make both the lottery tix come from Milwaukee.

 

I think Realmuto is probably the most valuable piece in this whole trade.

 

The balance of the trade would probably get hammered out based on the win-now needs of MKe and CLE and the prospect valuations of MIA.

[JosephC]

I think a Realmuto deal would probably look something like:

 

Brewers get:

C - J.T. Realmuto

 

Marlins get:

C - Manny Pina

2B - Keston Hiura

RHP - Luis Ortiz

LHP - Kodi Medeiros

 

Normally I would say the Marlins would be looking just for minor leaguers but their catcher situation would be so bad that Pina heads to Miami.

[MadThinker88]

Normally I would say the Marlins would be looking just for minor leaguers but their catcher situation would be so bad that Pina heads to Miami.

 

Beyond JTR, the Marlins have Bryan Holiday, Austin Nola & Chad Wallach as catchers on their roster.

I agree the fish prefer getting prospects & Mejia would be right in the Marlins wheelhouse.

[StearnsFTW]

We don't need a catcher. No chance id give them what they need.

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers are not trading assets for more offense. We now need pitching.

[coolhandluke121]

We don't need a catcher. No chance id give them what they need.

 

Pina was a 30-year-old rookie last year and had a .715 OPS in 12 minor league seasons, many of them in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and almost always as a prospect who was roughly the average age for players at the same level. There's a decent chance he's worth less than 1 WAR this year.

 

Also, for all the debates about age-related decline going on in the Archer and Yu threads, catcher is the most blatant example of a position where you absolutely can't trust a guy after 30. Pina will turn 31 early this season and Vogt is already 33.

 

If you assume Pina's going to duplicate last year's success, can't you assume Suter will too? Suter was more effective in the minors and is in his physical prime. By that logic, you could say they need a catcher more than they need a starter.

 

They also don't have any projected future starting catchers in the entire organization at that position, or even a sure-fire future MLB backup. There's a very good chance they will need a catcher. Unlike Archer, Realmuto is an example of a guy who's probably worthy of a premium prospect package because he plays a position that's harder to fill by other means and is younger (still pre-arbitration in fact).

[MrTPlush]

We can sign a FA then. If we are going to purge the farm we need a really good pitcher. We don’t need really good hitters at every single position, so me can be meh. We will need pitching and prospects left for mid season acquisitions.

 

Realmuto would be a terrible trade.

[coolhandluke121]

We can sign a FA then. If we are going to purge the farm we need a really good pitcher. We don’t need really good hitters at every single position, so me can be meh. We will need pitching and prospects left for mid season acquisitions.

 

 

That seems backwards because there are many more good pitchers available in free agency. If it's as fair as the Yelich trade, the Brewers should absolutely jump at the chance. The starting pitchers available in trade aren't nearly as appealing as Realmuto as core pieces for the window the Brewers are building.

 

Also, this isn't like basketball where having more good scorers can lead to diminishing returns. You can basically add just as many expected wins by adding .5 runs per game as you can by giving up .5 runs fewer. (There are some nuances like the variance in runs being higher with better offense and pitching, but it's still an adequate rule of thumb.) You could argue that you need pitching for the playoffs, but that's been a bit of a myth. You just need to outscore the other team, just like in the regular season.