J.T. Realmuto

[KeithStone53151]

Pina had an unlucky BABIP year and last year posted 2.6 WAR. He could decline based on age, but could also bounce back towards his 2017 numbers.

 

I'm also trying to figure out what suitors remain for Realmuto. The Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Reds, and Brewers are the only teams that seem to fit. And I could easily see all those teams standing pat, deciding giving up future stars isn't worth 2 years of a solid catcher. Realmuto had a crazy good first half, and regressed to a 720 OPS hitter in the 2nd half. And as noted, Cervelli being floated certainly doesn't help Realmuto's market.

 

I still think the Marlins screw this up and don't trade him at all. If a team was willing to meet their sky high asking price, it would have happened by now. If they want to trade him, they'll certainly need to lower their asking price.

[KeithStone53151]

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers.

 

Sure there are, but how many of them are really good - a significant upgrade on what a team already has as their starter?

 

When I read this the first time, I saw "what OUR team"...so thought you were referring to the Pina/Kratz/Nottingham combo. I guess I just read it wrong.

[Lathund]

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers.

 

Sure there are, but how many of them are really good - a significant upgrade on what a team already has as their starter?

Exactly. Lots of catchers doesn't mean good catchers.

 

Looking at Fangraphs, last year there were only 24 catchers in all of baseball to put up a WAR of 1.0 or better. Only 12 guys had a WAR over 2.0 or higher. Only three guys had a WAR over 3.0.

 

There are lot of below average catchers in this league. That's why getting one of the good catchers (or a couple of average ones) is so valuable. Realmuto had a 4.8 WAR last year. Pina and Kratz had a 1.2 WAR combined. Realmuto and a backup improve the team by four wins.

 

I use Fangraphs for finding most stats, but specifically for catcher WAR/defense I wouldn't, because it doesn't include framing. Baseball Prospecus' WARP does. And it's why you generally will see that catchers tend to hold a bigger share of the WAR(P) totals over there. Over time and over multiple teams, WAR(P) totals correlate well with total actual wins (But with the potential for some massive outliers) so it's not a matter of inflation, BP simply believe that catcher defense play a bigger part than FG and BR do.

 

Anyway, they have 30 catchers with 1+ WARP (Which doesn't say anything about the catcher quality overall as I don't know how it usually looks by their metric), but they have Kratz 14th and Piña 19th by WARP. They still have Realmuto 2nd with an excellent 4.3 WARP, but here Kratz and Piña add up to 3.7 WARP. Whether the framing numbers are super exact or not, it just feels wrong to not include it at all when judging a catchers overall value as it has a huge impact. (WARP appears to have included DRC+ now, which also accounts for some differences between the various WAR(P)s).

 

Obviously there's no doubt that Realmuto would make this team better, but I really doubt it's 4 wins per season better. And since a trade would essentially be about how many extra wins we gain over 2 years compared to how many we give up over 6 years, and how big a premium one is willing to pay for the fact that 1 win now (or soon) is worth more than 1 several years down the line, even relatively small differences matter in terms not only of how much he improves us, but how worthwhile a trade is. If the trade includes someone who would have an impact in 2019 and 2020 (A Hiura, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) then that factors into it too. A ~$6m salary in 2019 (And a few million higher in 2020) is excellent value for what you're getting from Realmuto, but it's also $6m less to spend on pitching or 2B/3B. If we have room to spend like $20m, that doesn't matter much. But if ~$10m is all we can increase the opening day payroll with then it matters a lot.

 

So yeah, for me I'm still in the boat that I only really want to trade for Realmuto if it's for prospects further removed from the majors. Trading one of the young pitchers just leaves a hole to fill there, and less money to fill it with. Trading Hiura means a long-term hole to fill at 2B instead of a short-term one and, again, less money to fill it with. Rolling with Kratz/Piña/Nottingham (Or some other very cheap signing), keeping whoever of Hiura/Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff would have been needed to get JTR and adding the $5-5.5m saved to the 2B/3B pot to perhaps get Marwin Gonzalez or Jed Lowrie will to me be of bigger benefit. Possibly, or probably, still worse in 2019 than with JTR, but better from that point onwards.

[Mr Southpaw]

If I could have Realmuto for 4-5 years at a below performance price (Yelich, Burnes, KH, any other almost can't miss prospect) I would do this trade. I will get only two years back on my end, so I am only willing to trade you players that are equivalent to two years of worth.

 

My advise is enjoy the holidays and wait for the after Christmas discounts. When the 50-75% off discounts ads come out we can talk.

[JosephC]

I'm really disappointed that the Brewers were unable to obtain Ramos, especially when it was confirmed that they had serious interest in him. I just don't feel confident with the combination of Pina/Kratz/Nottingham...especially the Kratz aspect of that. It's easy to say that Kratz is a good defensive catcher, so anything the team gets out of him is just a bonus. The same could be said about Arcia last year, but his bat was so bad they were almost forced to send him down. In the last 450 plate appearances before getting to Milwaukee, Kratz slashed .193/.236/.338/.574. It's just really hard to survive on a 25-man roster with that type of offensive production, even if the player is a plus-plus defender. I think the .634 OPS that Kratz posted in 2018 was somewhat of an aberration and we'll be very lucky if we see that type of offensive production out of him in 2019.

 

I'm not in favor of a Realmuto deal because of the cost involved, but I think it's a priority for the Brewers to be aggressive and upgrade the catcher position. If they just roll with Pina/Kratz, Arcia at short and then hope that Hiura is an answer to the second base problem come June, then they run the risk of having the exact same problem as last year, when they played a good chunk of the season while getting poor offensive performance out of four spots in the lineup.

[JohnBriggs12]

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers.

 

Sure there are, but how many of them are really good - a significant upgrade on what a team already has as their starter?

Exactly. Lots of catchers doesn't mean good catchers.

 

Looking at Fangraphs, last year there were only 24 catchers in all of baseball to put up a WAR of 1.0 or better. Only 12 guys had a WAR over 2.0 or higher. Only three guys had a WAR over 3.0.

 

There are lot of below average catchers in this league. That's why getting one of the good catchers (or a couple of average ones) is so valuable. Realmuto had a 4.8 WAR last year. Pina and Kratz had a 1.2 WAR combined. Realmuto and a backup improve the team by four wins.

 

Even having two solid platoon guys is really valuable. The Braves had Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki last year - 3.2 WAR total. Again, two full wins above our catchers.

 

The free agent market for catchers is really getting tapped out of decent players. Only Grandal is left of the guys who had a WAR of 1.0 or above (Ramos, Suzuki, and Chirinos have signed). Even the trade market is getting tapped (Gomes and Zunino), leaving Realmuto and Cervelli as the two guys rumored to be available.

 

If we want someone very mediocre - there's a ton of options. Young guys, veterans, defense first guys, offensive minded -- all of these guys are available. Just don't expect anyone who is well rounded (outside of Grandal, Realmuto and Cervelli).

 

If you're limiting yourself to 2018 WAR numbers, it's true the market is thin. But there are guys who have done it in the past out there. We all know about Lucroy, who averaged over 3 WAR per season from 2012-2016. A rebound season at age 33 in familiar surroundings isn't out of the question. Then there's the guy nobody mentions, Devin Mesoraco. He's a lot of tough injuries removed from his All Star 2014 season when he posted a 4.7 WAR. But very quietly he managed a 0.7 WAR per BA in 244 AB's (most since 2014) with the Reds and Mets last year. Mesoraco's still only 30. He also caught a lot of deGrom's starts so we know he can call a game.

[tmwiese55]

I'm really disappointed that the Brewers were unable to obtain Ramos, especially when it was confirmed that they had serious interest in him. I just don't feel confident with the combination of Pina/Kratz/Nottingham...especially the Kratz aspect of that. It's easy to say that Kratz is a good defensive catcher, so anything the team gets out of him is just a bonus. The same could be said about Arcia last year, but his bat was so bad they were almost forced to send him down. In the last 450 plate appearances before getting to Milwaukee, Kratz slashed .193/.236/.338/.574. It's just really hard to survive on a 25-man roster with that type of offensive production, even if the player is a plus-plus defender. I think the .634 OPS that Kratz posted in 2018 was somewhat of an aberration and we'll be very lucky if we see that type of offensive production out of him in 2019.

 

I'm not in favor of a Realmuto deal because of the cost involved, but I think it's a priority for the Brewers to be aggressive and upgrade the catcher position. If they just roll with Pina/Kratz, Arcia at short and then hope that Hiura is an answer to the second base problem come June, then they run the risk of having the exact same problem as last year, when they played a good chunk of the season while getting poor offensive performance out of four spots in the lineup.

 

Agree with the Kratz view, especially with how it seems he'll play at least 50% if not more of the games. It's very tough to have a good consistent offense with 1/3 of it being near pitcher level hitters. I'm including Arcia for now, don't want to have a discussion on it or anything. I know he could hit like he did to finish the year, I also know he could hit like he did the first half. so, I'm just phrasing it this way because we can't "bank" on it in anyway.

[adambr2]

I just don't get their infatuation with Kratz. Erik Kratz is not the only catcher in MLB who can handle a pitching staff. He's a fantastic story and I'm happy for him, but this should have been the end of it for him. He already isn't very good and at his age it could get a lot worse fast.

 

Any opening day 2018 roster that involves Kratz starting more than 25% of games will be pretty disappointing to me.

 

Catcher is a huge opportunity for an upgrade. I wish we had gotten Ramos, but it does sound like he wanted to go to New York so I'm not going to get too worked up about it. But the status quo isn't good enough.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My first choice would be to find a way to acquire Realmuto. If the Marlins are serious about needing MLB talent for him, the Brewers actually match up pretty well in that department.

 

My second choice would be signing Grandal to a 4-year deal. I love his bat, and the defensive deficiencies he had in the playoffs are not who he is I believe.

 

I think Pina is fine in a job share role, but I would not be pleased if he is sharing that job with Kratz. While it wouldn't be ideal, I think I'd rather just see them sink or swim with Nottingham getting 50-75% of the starts behind the plate if they are going with the status quo.

[tmwiese55]

Agree, I'd rather go with Pina/nottingham with Pina in the tradition 2/3 of starts role. Have Kratz in AAA as injury insurance and if Nottingham can't hack it while helping out with the young pitchers there basically like another coach.

[Mr Southpaw]

I just don't get their infatuation with Kratz. Erik Kratz is not the only catcher in MLB who can handle a pitching staff. He's a fantastic story and I'm happy for him, but this should have been the end of it for him. He already isn't very good and at his age it could get a lot worse fast.

 

Any opening day 2018 roster that involves Kratz starting more than 25% of games will be pretty disappointing to me.

 

Catcher is a huge opportunity for an upgrade. I wish we had gotten Ramos, but it does sound like he wanted to go to New York so I'm not going to get too worked up about it. But the status quo isn't good enough.

 

2019 Erik Kratz AAA catcher and MLB backup plan.

2020 Erik Kratz MiLB pitching coach/catcher.

[Mr Southpaw]

Agree, I'd rather go with Pina/nottingham with Pina in the tradition 2/3 of starts role. Have Kratz in AAA as injury insurance and if Nottingham can't hack it while helping out with the young pitchers there basically like another coach.

 

I replied to Adam before reading your post.

[HiAndTight]

My first choice would be to find a way to acquire Realmuto. If the Marlins are serious about needing MLB talent for him, the Brewers actually match up pretty well in that department.

 

My second choice would be signing Grandal to a 4-year deal. I love his bat, and the defensive deficiencies he had in the playoffs are not who he is I believe.

 

I think Pina is fine in a job share role, but I would not be pleased if he is sharing that job with Kratz. While it wouldn't be ideal, I think I'd rather just see them sink or swim with Nottingham getting 50-75% of the starts behind the plate if they are going with the status quo.

 

 

Wasn't Grandal benched the in the 2017 playoffs as well? Austin Barnes isn't the worst, but if we're going to pay I'd guess 60 million at a minimium for 4 years of a Catcher, I hope the guy can fend off a guy like him in the post-season. Grandal might have been our most valuable player in the NLCS.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My first choice would be to find a way to acquire Realmuto. If the Marlins are serious about needing MLB talent for him, the Brewers actually match up pretty well in that department.

 

My second choice would be signing Grandal to a 4-year deal. I love his bat, and the defensive deficiencies he had in the playoffs are not who he is I believe.

 

I think Pina is fine in a job share role, but I would not be pleased if he is sharing that job with Kratz. While it wouldn't be ideal, I think I'd rather just see them sink or swim with Nottingham getting 50-75% of the starts behind the plate if they are going with the status quo.

 

 

Wasn't Grandal benched the in the 2017 playoffs as well? Austin Barnes isn't the worst, but if we're going to pay I'd guess 60 million at a minimium for 4 years of a Catcher, I hope the guy can fend off a guy like him in the post-season. Grandal might have been our most valuable player in the NLCS.

 

He was no doubt bad against the Brewers in that series, and his bat went cold in 2017, which led to his benching. He has been very consistent otherwise throughout his career, though, and it would be my hope that those poor showings on the big stage may temper his market. I sure as heck am not going to pay $60 million for 4 years of him.

[adambr2]

I would also tend to view his playoff performances as abberations and take a shot on Grandal. Putting too much stock in a small playoff sample is how we ended up with Jeff Suppan.

[KeithStone53151]

I would also tend to view his playoff performances as abberations and take a shot on Grandal. Putting too much stock in a small playoff sample is how we ended up with Jeff Suppan.

 

While i agree we shouldn't put too much stock in his playoff defense, i don't know that I'd target him. I honestly can't see him getting less than Ramos, and who knows how much more he'll get. Im not sure I'd want to pay that AND another draft pick

[anglotiger]

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers.

 

Sure there are, but how many of them are really good - a significant upgrade on what a team already has as their starter?

 

When I read this the first time, I saw "what OUR team"...so thought you were referring to the Pina/Kratz/Nottingham combo. I guess I just read it wrong.

 

 

I've never done anything like that before...

[DHonks]

I just don't get their infatuation with Kratz.

 

perhaps the new undervalued tool that Stearns and Counsell are adding is "veteran presence." Last year's team seemed to get along as well as any group we've seen. Adding older players that are hungry could help.

[pacopete4]

The team won a lot of ball games with Kratz last year. Some things are not measured by stats and that is hard for people to wrap their minds around. It doesn't mean it will happen again this season but it was definitely a good fit a season ago.

[tmwiese55]

They won a lot of games before the deadline too and yet turned over like half the roster to finish the year. They won a lot with Arcia hitting .120 but still tried to improve. Kratz is simply a terrible hitter. Great story and seems like a great guy, I'll be rooting for him but if you want to win the WS it seems like you shouldn't go into the year planning on half your starts at C coming from a near pitcher level hitter. They won at the end of the year/Sept due to the BP and Yelich going in Barry Bonds mode. Sure Kratz can take some credit for helping the pitchers but everything said about Kratz in that regard was said about Pina the year before when so many pitchers improved and overachieved.

[NievesNoNO]

I don't think having Kratz would stop the team from pursuing an upgrade. I agree with a few others that he was resigned as insurance and maybe some sort of transition into a coaching role.

[sveumrules]

They won a lot of games before the deadline too and yet turned over like half the roster to finish the year. They won a lot with Arcia hitting .120 but still tried to improve. Kratz is simply a terrible hitter. Great story and seems like a great guy, I'll be rooting for him but if you want to win the WS it seems like you shouldn't go into the year planning on half your starts at C coming from a near pitcher level hitter. They won at the end of the year/Sept due to the BP and Yelich going in Barry Bonds mode. Sure Kratz can take some credit for helping the pitchers but everything said about Kratz in that regard was said about Pina the year before when so many pitchers improved and overachieved.

 

Avg C 2018 233/304/374 (84 wRC+)

Pina 2018 252/307/395 (85 wRC+)

Kratz 2018 236/280/355 (70 wRC+)

Avg P 2018 115/144/148 (-25 wRC+)

 

Kratz hit 15% worse than Pina last year, but was still 95% better than the average pitcher.

 

That means that Kratz was about 633% nearer to hitting like Pina (or an average C) than to hitting like a pitcher.

 

Despite Kratz having only the 39th most framing chances in 2018, he ranked 10th in framing runs per BPro. It seems the reason he was catching Miley/Chacin exclusively is because analytics likely showed they would benefit the most from additional borderline strike calls & Kratz gave them the best chance to get those calls. It worked.

 

I'd prefer an upgrade to C before the season starts, but Red Sox catchers hit for a league worst 40 wRC+last season & they still won the World Series.

[pacopete4]

This ^^^^^ was a heck of a post.

[tmwiese55]

They won a lot of games before the deadline too and yet turned over like half the roster to finish the year. They won a lot with Arcia hitting .120 but still tried to improve. Kratz is simply a terrible hitter. Great story and seems like a great guy, I'll be rooting for him but if you want to win the WS it seems like you shouldn't go into the year planning on half your starts at C coming from a near pitcher level hitter. They won at the end of the year/Sept due to the BP and Yelich going in Barry Bonds mode. Sure Kratz can take some credit for helping the pitchers but everything said about Kratz in that regard was said about Pina the year before when so many pitchers improved and overachieved.

 

Avg C 2018 233/304/374 (84 wRC+)

Pina 2018 252/307/395 (85 wRC+)

Kratz 2018 236/280/355 (70 wRC+)

Avg P 2018 115/144/148 (-25 wRC+)

 

Kratz hit 15% worse than Pina last year, but was still 95% better than the average pitcher.

 

That means that Kratz was about 633% nearer to hitting like Pina (or an average C) than to hitting like a pitcher.

 

Despite Kratz having only the 39th most framing chances in 2018, he ranked 10th in framing runs per BPro. It seems the reason he was catching Miley/Chacin exclusively is because analytics likely showed they would benefit the most from additional borderline strike calls & Kratz gave them the best chance to get those calls. It worked.

 

I'd prefer an upgrade to C before the season starts, but Red Sox catchers hit for a league worst 40 wRC+last season & they still won the World Series.

 

Yes i know it's hyperbole to use the pitcher level thing because yea of course he's probably going to hit above .200. It's just a common phrase we all use to say someone is an awful hitter. Maybe we all should get rid of it, but it's just an exaggeration to make the point. Still, I do not expect Kratz to match his hitting numbers from last year.

 

The Bos analogy is one of those things you can talk in circles about that's really pointless. Like, Royals won without an ace P so no one needs one. Or IDK the Cubs won with a light hitting SS so you shouldn't try to get good hitting at SS. Basically each team is different so it's tough to make blanket things like that hold up. We of course only had 3 guys who hit consistently all year in Cain, Yelich, Shaw. And one of them shouldn't play vs lefties. Anything we can do to stabilize the offense should be explored.

[KeithStone53151]

They won a lot of games before the deadline too and yet turned over like half the roster to finish the year. They won a lot with Arcia hitting .120 but still tried to improve. Kratz is simply a terrible hitter. Great story and seems like a great guy, I'll be rooting for him but if you want to win the WS it seems like you shouldn't go into the year planning on half your starts at C coming from a near pitcher level hitter. They won at the end of the year/Sept due to the BP and Yelich going in Barry Bonds mode. Sure Kratz can take some credit for helping the pitchers but everything said about Kratz in that regard was said about Pina the year before when so many pitchers improved and overachieved.

 

Avg C 2018 233/304/374 (84 wRC+)

Pina 2018 252/307/395 (85 wRC+)

Kratz 2018 236/280/355 (70 wRC+)

Avg P 2018 115/144/148 (-25 wRC+)

 

Kratz hit 15% worse than Pina last year, but was still 95% better than the average pitcher.

 

That means that Kratz was about 633% nearer to hitting like Pina (or an average C) than to hitting like a pitcher.

 

Despite Kratz having only the 39th most framing chances in 2018, he ranked 10th in framing runs per BPro. It seems the reason he was catching Miley/Chacin exclusively is because analytics likely showed they would benefit the most from additional borderline strike calls & Kratz gave them the best chance to get those calls. It worked.

 

I'd prefer an upgrade to C before the season starts, but Red Sox catchers hit for a league worst 40 wRC+last season & they still won the World Series.

 

I tend to agree with tmwiese here. Clearly he was exaggerating saying that Kratz hit like a pitcher. To throw a bunch of data points up there showing how wrong that exaggeration is...I'll be nice and just say that's weird. Erik Kratz is a bad hitter. He's even a bad hitter for a catcher. And he's also not that good a defender. He's mediocre at blocking balls, mediocre thrower of the baseball at this point, I'll give you he might be a good pitch framer...but I think that ability is wildly overexaggerated and very rarely comes into play. You can't justify keeping a declining 38-39 year old catcher that can't hit and is a mediocre defender as the first backup on a contending team because he's a good pitch framer.

 

And I'll also give you that the day we can spend $200+ million in payroll along with controlling a handful of superstar caliber players on team friendly deals, at that point...we can get away with having a catcher like Kratz as the first backup option and expect to seriously contend.