J.T. Realmuto

[KeithStone53151]

According to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, the J.T. Realmuto trade market is "essentially down to six teams: Reds, Mets, Rays, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres."

 

There was an expectation that Realmuto would be traded at some point during this week's Winter Meetings, but that's not going to happen as teams are packing up and heading out of Las Vegas. The Marlins are still sifting through offers and trying to get multiple young players in return for the 27-year-old catcher. Realmuto batted .277/.340/.484 with 21 home runs and 74 RBI over 125 games this past season with Miami. He is under control through 2020.

 

Source: Clark Spencer on TwitterDec 13 - 1:48 PM

 

 

 

Don't see the Brewers listed...Probably see a press conference tomorrow announcing the trade to the Brewers...

 

Haha sounds about right. I still think the Marlins bungle this with their extreme asking price and don't trade him at all.

[JosephC]

I think he'll end up with the Mets in a deal that doesn't include major leaguers. The Mets are going for it and the MLB roster isn't deep enough to deal talent from there. Sounds like the Marlins want infielders, and the Mets have some pretty good candidates in the minors.

 

Mets get:

C-J.T. Realmuto

 

Marlins get:

SS - Andres Gimenez (~#43 hitter = ~47 million in surplus value)

LHP - David Peterson (~#135 pitcher = ~14 million in surplus value)

SS - Shervyen Netwon (role player prospect = ~5.5 million in surplus value)

RHP - Rony Dibrell (fringe prospect = ~2 million in surplus value)

 

Also some reports that the Marlins really like 3B-Mark Vientos...so another variation might be something like Gimenez + LHP-Anthony Kay + Vientos. To me the 4 prospect proposal above seems far and works for both sides a bit better than the three prospect deal. If the Mets believe Rosario will improve and have SS locked down for the next five years, then they are dealing from a strength with both Gimenez and Newton. Peterson might be the hardest pill to swallow for them because they will need pitching reinforcements in a couple years...but they are trading for Realmuto so one of the top pitching prospects will likely be necessary.

[PDCBalla]

 

One MLB personnel man thinks the #Brewers could be a legit player for Realmuto. "I haven't read much about them, but I know they've inquired,'' he said. "They were interested at the trade deadline. I think they'll quietly creep into this.'' https://t.co/2NfxH6D66l

[KeithStone53151]

I think he'll end up with the Mets in a deal that doesn't include major leaguers. The Mets are going for it and the MLB roster isn't deep enough to deal talent from there. Sounds like the Marlins want infielders, and the Mets have some pretty good candidates in the minors.

 

Mets get:

C-J.T. Realmuto

 

Marlins get:

SS - Andres Gimenez (~#43 hitter = ~47 million in surplus value)

LHP - David Peterson (~#135 pitcher = ~14 million in surplus value)

SS - Shervyen Netwon (role player prospect = ~5.5 million in surplus value)

RHP - Rony Dibrell (fringe prospect = ~2 million in surplus value)

 

Also some reports that the Marlins really like 3B-Mark Vientos...so another variation might be something like Gimenez + LHP-Anthony Kay + Vientos. To me the 4 prospect proposal above seems far and works for both sides a bit better than the three prospect deal. If the Mets believe Rosario will improve and have SS locked down for the next five years, then they are dealing from a strength with both Gimenez and Newton. Peterson might be the hardest pill to swallow for them because they will need pitching reinforcements in a couple years...but they are trading for Realmuto so one of the top pitching prospects will likely be necessary.

 

Gimenez seems like a reasonable target. He's a tier below the Hiura/Verdugo group, but still a very strong prospect. Peterson seems like a solid prospect, potential mid-rotation guy. The other 2 very fringey as you noted, this overall package seems fair...and it notably much less than we gave up for Yelich.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

Mets just signed Ramos so no JT for them

[TURBO]

Marlins ask is too high. In the end, they may just have to hang onto him until the trade deadline...

[danzig6767]

Marlins ask is too high. In the end, they may just have to hang onto him until the trade deadline...

They should be asking a lot for Realmuto.

 

He's very good, in his prime years, not injury prone, cheap, controlled for two years, and he plays a position with a pretty limited number of quality players. I'd also demand a lot for him.

[KeithStone53151]

Marlins ask is too high. In the end, they may just have to hang onto him until the trade deadline...

They should be asking a lot for Realmuto.

 

He's very good, in his prime years, not injury prone, cheap, controlled for two years, and he plays a position with a pretty limited number of quality players. I'd also demand a lot for him.

 

That's a dreadful argument. Of course they can ask a lot, nobody is arguing that. There's a wide gap between "a lot" and the reported asking price though. If their asking price was even borderline reasonable, he would have been traded a long time ago

[brewerfan82]

I think fans are just more impatient than the Marlins front office is as I'm not sure how much his trade value drops between now and the trade deadline anyways. Yes you may lose some suitors in that time, but the bidding may be more intense between those going for it at the deadline as well. Additionally, the team that ultimately gets him still has him for the stretch run this year, two postseasons, and they can still offer him the qualifying offer when he hits free agency. So if I'm the Marlins, I shoot for the moon for the time being too.

[pacopete4]

Kratz can get us the the all star break.

[adambr2]

Kratz can get us the the all star break.

 

I'm sure he can, but it would be nice to address one of the black holes in our lineup now rather than in 80+ games, and that's more of a general argument for a catching upgrade in general rather than JT specifically.

[pacopete4]

Kratz can get us the the all star break.

 

I'm sure he can, but it would be nice to address one of the black holes in our lineup now rather than in 80+ games, and that's more of a general argument for a catching upgrade in general rather than JT specifically.

 

Not disagreeing at all just that if Miami is too stubborn to move off their asking price now, maybe we get a better shot at it come July.

[anglotiger]

Am I the only one who thinks that the Ramos signing puts the Marlins in an even stronger negotiating position than they were before?

 

Many here seem to be of the opinion that, with each signing, the market for Realmuto becomes smaller, weakening their position.

 

My view is quite different. Yes, the number of teams who are or should be interested in Realmuto diminishes by one with every free agent who signs with a team or is traded, but there are many teams still in need, and the number of potential targets for those teams has also reduced. Teams chose to balk at the the asking price while there were other avenues to pursue. Now that those other avenues are disappearing, IMO, it's becoming more likely that someone will blink and meet the asking price, or at least increase what they're willing to pay...

 

I don't think that I want that team to be the Brewers, but I think that someone will pull the trigger...

[brewerfan82]

Exactly. The Marlins may be asking for too much now, but teams bidding on him are likely offering too little as well with so many alternative upgrades still available that won't cost the prospect package JT will. Whether it's this offseason or at the trade deadline, as teams see fewer or no other options available, I'm sure someone will increase their offer and the Marlins will agree to something in the middle.

[Humans Need Water]

The teams that are addressing their catching needs via FA right now most likely won't be targeting Realmuto come the deadline. I think Miami holds him until then because I don't see the return being much different at this point. Also, teams that are looking at Realmuto (ie Brewers) also might not look to acquire him at the deadline if their catchers are performing. So they very well might turn to other areas of need that could bolster their team down the stretch.

 

I think if the Marlins were willing to meet in the middle between what teams are offering and their asking price that he would have been traded already. I highly doubt teams are low balling the Marlins. They might not be offering what they'd ultimately be willing to part with but there's no way they're low balling them. By all accounts now and dating back to the last deadline their asking price is absurd and unreasonable. I also personally feel that there are a limited number of teams that seriously in on Realmuto at this point. Staying in touch and keeping in contact isn't seriously in on him - half the league no doubt called to have a discussion then stopped pursuing once they heard the asking price.

[SRB]

We have payroll to make a run at Grandal.

 

It's not clear to me that Realmuto is even better than Grandal.

 

I hope they at least go after the guy who doesn't cost our top 1-3 prospects.

[KeithStone53151]

Am I the only one who thinks that the Ramos signing puts the Marlins in an even stronger negotiating position than they were before?

 

Many here seem to be of the opinion that, with each signing, the market for Realmuto becomes smaller, weakening their position.

 

My view is quite different. Yes, the number of teams who are or should be interested in Realmuto diminishes by one with every free agent who signs with a team or is traded, but there are many teams still in need, and the number of potential targets for those teams has also reduced. Teams chose to balk at the the asking price while there were other avenues to pursue. Now that those other avenues are disappearing, IMO, it's becoming more likely that someone will blink and meet the asking price, or at least increase what they're willing to pay...

 

I don't think that I want that team to be the Brewers, but I think that someone will pull the trigger...

 

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers. I tend to agree with a poster above that half the league probably called on Realmuto, but only a handful are seriously pursuing at this point. Of the Mets, Nationals, White Sox, and Astros...who have filled the catcher position and are basically OUT on Realmuto...all but the White Sox were seriously in pursuit of him at some point in the last year. At this point, the Dodgers, Reds, Braves, and maybe the Brewers/Red Sox/Padres are in on Realmuto. The Dodgers will probably end up bringing back Grandal, the Reds will probably stick with Barnhart, and the Braves historically don't make bad trades and probably won't meet the Marlins asking price. Also factor in at least 5 or 6 solid/unspectacular options available in FA besides Grandal...yes, the market for Realmuto is shrinking quickly.

[adambr2]

The Dodgers only want to go 1 year for Grandal. I'm holding out hope we may make a play for him, but I doubt it.

[KeithStone53151]

The Dodgers only want to go 1 year for Grandal. I'm holding out hope we may make a play for him, but I doubt it.

 

If that's true, then Realmuto doesn't make sense for them as he has 2 years of team control. If they are just looking for a 1 year stopgap, they should probably grab someone like Maldonado.

[sveumrules]

I think ideally the Dodgers would include Will Smith as part of their JT package.

 

Kelbert Ruiz spent all of 2018 at AA, so he could get a season in at AAA this year then break into MLB as Realmuto's backup in 2020.

[clancyphile]

Am I the only one who thinks that the Ramos signing puts the Marlins in an even stronger negotiating position than they were before?

 

Many here seem to be of the opinion that, with each signing, the market for Realmuto becomes smaller, weakening their position.

 

My view is quite different. Yes, the number of teams who are or should be interested in Realmuto diminishes by one with every free agent who signs with a team or is traded, but there are many teams still in need, and the number of potential targets for those teams has also reduced. Teams chose to balk at the the asking price while there were other avenues to pursue. Now that those other avenues are disappearing, IMO, it's becoming more likely that someone will blink and meet the asking price, or at least increase what they're willing to pay...

 

I don't think that I want that team to be the Brewers, but I think that someone will pull the trigger...

 

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers. I tend to agree with a poster above that half the league probably called on Realmuto, but only a handful are seriously pursuing at this point. Of the Mets, Nationals, White Sox, and Astros...who have filled the catcher position and are basically OUT on Realmuto...all but the White Sox were seriously in pursuit of him at some point in the last year. At this point, the Dodgers, Reds, Braves, and maybe the Brewers/Red Sox/Padres are in on Realmuto. The Dodgers will probably end up bringing back Grandal, the Reds will probably stick with Barnhart, and the Braves historically don't make bad trades and probably won't meet the Marlins asking price. Also factor in at least 5 or 6 solid/unspectacular options available in FA besides Grandal...yes, the market for Realmuto is shrinking quickly.

 

Also, how many teams will get frustrated with the Marlins for not budging on the asking price? As the trade market shrinks, the Marlins get fewer and fewer buyers. I remember reading about one football player who was picked far later in the NFL draft than he expected. He also had been accepted by Harvard Law School.

 

So, one day, he went to work out - and his sweatshirt read, Harvard Law School. The NFL team that picked him gave him a much bigger bonus than other late-round picks got. Why? Because he had more than one buyer.

 

Time is NOT on the Marlins' side. The more time that goes by, the less they get for Realmuto - and they may end up having him in Miami and then having much less in return. If the market decreases, Stearns can and should wait out the Marlins. Maybe it's not a bad idea to have another free-agent catcher (Lucroy?) come in. I wonder what miracles the Brewers' analytics team could work with him. I bet pitchers aren't the only players who can be rejuvenated...

 

[anglotiger]

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers.

 

Sure there are, but how many of them are really good - a significant upgrade on what a team already has as their starter?

[KeithStone53151]

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers.

 

Sure there are, but how many of them are really good - a significant upgrade on what a team already has as their starter?

 

A handful are, but that's also because what we have for starters really aren't that bad. Pina grades out roughly average overall. Kratz is a below average vet with an excellent presence, and for all we know Nottingham could take a step forward this year. He had a pretty solid season overall last year and has an excellent work ethic.

 

And you took my comment incredibly out of context anyway. I was referring to the market on Realmuto overall, not directly related to the Brewers. A majority of the teams I listed will probably be content with one of the lower cost options available...and there are enough that each team could get a solid option and leave the Marlins with no market. Multiple GM's have gone on record saying how ridiculous the Marlins asking price is. Their two most aggressive suitors have signed alternate options and are basically out on Realmuto.

 

This argument of "Realmuto is good and at a scarce position, therefore X team should give up their top prospects" is a terrible argument and it keeps happening. Realmuto is not going to be as valuable as many of these top prospects over their entire team control. Hiura for example I would argue is likely to put up a higher WAR over the next 3 years than Realmuto will in the next 2, and at a lower cost...and then we'll have 3 additional years of likely even greater production beyond that. This exact scenario is the same for Robles, Acuna, Bellinger, Verdugo, etc...this thought process isn't specific to the Brewers. That's why so many on this board consider Hiura or Burnes for Realmuto to be crazy, and why teams are calling out the Marlins for their insane asking price.

[reillymcshane]

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers.

 

Sure there are, but how many of them are really good - a significant upgrade on what a team already has as their starter?

Exactly. Lots of catchers doesn't mean good catchers.

 

Looking at Fangraphs, last year there were only 24 catchers in all of baseball to put up a WAR of 1.0 or better. Only 12 guys had a WAR over 2.0 or higher. Only three guys had a WAR over 3.0.

 

There are lot of below average catchers in this league. That's why getting one of the good catchers (or a couple of average ones) is so valuable. Realmuto had a 4.8 WAR last year. Pina and Kratz had a 1.2 WAR combined. Realmuto and a backup improve the team by four wins.

 

Even having two solid platoon guys is really valuable. The Braves had Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki last year - 3.2 WAR total. Again, two full wins above our catchers.

 

The free agent market for catchers is really getting tapped out of decent players. Only Grandal is left of the guys who had a WAR of 1.0 or above (Ramos, Suzuki, and Chirinos have signed). Even the trade market is getting tapped (Gomes and Zunino), leaving Realmuto and Cervelli as the two guys rumored to be available.

 

If we want someone very mediocre - there's a ton of options. Young guys, veterans, defense first guys, offensive minded -- all of these guys are available. Just don't expect anyone who is well rounded (outside of Grandal, Realmuto and Cervelli).

[anglotiger]

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers.

 

Sure there are, but how many of them are really good - a significant upgrade on what a team already has as their starter?

 

A handful are, but that's also because what we have for starters really aren't that bad. Pina grades out roughly average overall. Kratz is a below average vet with an excellent presence, and for all we know Nottingham could take a step forward this year. He had a pretty solid season overall last year and has an excellent work ethic.

 

And you took my comment incredibly out of context anyway. I was referring to the market on Realmuto overall, not directly related to the Brewers. A majority of the teams I listed will probably be content with one of the lower cost options available...and there are enough that each team could get a solid option and leave the Marlins with no market. Multiple GM's have gone on record saying how ridiculous the Marlins asking price is. Their two most aggressive suitors have signed alternate options and are basically out on Realmuto.

 

This argument of "Realmuto is good and at a scarce position, therefore X team should give up their top prospects" is a terrible argument and it keeps happening. Realmuto is not going to be as valuable as many of these top prospects over their entire team control. Hiura for example I would argue is likely to put up a higher WAR over the next 3 years than Realmuto will in the next 2, and at a lower cost...and then we'll have 3 additional years of likely even greater production beyond that. This exact scenario is the same for Robles, Acuna, Bellinger, Verdugo, etc...this thought process isn't specific to the Brewers. That's why so many on this board consider Hiura or Burnes for Realmuto to be crazy, and why teams are calling out the Marlins for their insane asking price.

 

 

I really wasn't taking your comment out of context at all, let alone "incredibly". I got what you were saying, and didn't see the need to quote an entire lengthy post, so I just included the line on which the entire argument seemed to be based - a statement which seemed to completely miss the point of my original comment.

 

I was referring to the market in general too, not the Brewers - see the last line of my post that you were responding to: "I don't think that I want that team to be the Brewers, but I think that someone will pull the trigger...". I thought that it was clear that my post was referring to the market in general, and not the Brewers, but if that wasn't clear then I apologize...

 

And, by the way, from what you're saying, I think that we both voted the same way in the poll about catching... we don't disagree on that...