J.T. Realmuto

[Oxy]

Or perhaps Anderson and Thames for Starlin Castro?

[adambr2]

Anderson + Thames for Castro is probably an overpay, but the proposed deals with Ray as a headliner for Realmuto aren't nearly enough IMO. Would take a miracle to get it done without Hiura, and if that happened it would definitely take Burnes.

[KeithStone53151]

Anderson + Thames for Castro is probably an overpay, but the proposed deals with Ray as a headliner for Realmuto aren't nearly enough IMO. Would take a miracle to get it done without Hiura, and if that happened it would definitely take Burnes.

 

If a team was willing to trade a prospect of Hiura's caliber, it would have happened by now. Countless teams have reportedly balked at the asking price of an Acuna, Robles, Bellinger, Tucker, Hiura, etc. At this point, in this market, a team isn't going to all of a sudden make someone like that available.

[PDCBalla]

Anderson + Thames for Castro is probably an overpay, but the proposed deals with Ray as a headliner for Realmuto aren't nearly enough IMO. Would take a miracle to get it done without Hiura, and if that happened it would definitely take Burnes.

 

If a team was willing to trade a prospect of Hiura's caliber, it would have happened by now. Countless teams have reportedly balked at the asking price of an Acuna, Robles, Bellinger, Tucker, Hiura, etc. At this point, in this market, a team isn't going to all of a sudden make someone like that available.

 

 

You mean like Brinson? Who wasn't available in the Quintana talks but then was moved for Yelich.

[JosephC]

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Mets have discussed a three-team trade with the Yankees and Marlins in which they would land J.T. Realmuto.

 

The Mets and Yankees haven't made a trade involving major leaguers since 2004, but Rosenthal says new Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has been in "steady" talks with the Yanks since he was hired. Rosenthal adds that he's not sure whether Noah Syndergaard is part of the discussions but the Mets would not trade Syndergaard if they only get Realmuto in return. Andy Martino of SNY.tv says that Syndergaard going to the Yankees is a "real possibility," but there are "10 other scenarios" the Mets are considering. We're sure to hear more about this possible three-way deal as the Winter Meetings unfold.

 

Source: Ken Rosenthal on TwitterDec 10 - 11:02 PM

 

If the Yankees are willing to give up Estevan Florial, I think this is a scenario that could work.

 

Yankees get:

RHP-Noah Syndergaard (from Mets)

 

Mets get:

C-JT Realmuto (from Marlins)

RHP-Tommy Kahnle (from Yankees)

 

Marlins get:

OF-Estevan Florial (from Yankees)

RHP-Domingo Acevedo (from Yankees)

RHP-Clarke Schmidt (from Yankees)

SS-Shervyen Newton (from Mets)

 

Problem is, I could see the Yankees trying to substitute Clint Frazier for Florial and try to build the deal around him. And that's something the Marlins should definitely not go for.

[KeithStone53151]

Anderson + Thames for Castro is probably an overpay, but the proposed deals with Ray as a headliner for Realmuto aren't nearly enough IMO. Would take a miracle to get it done without Hiura, and if that happened it would definitely take Burnes.

 

If a team was willing to trade a prospect of Hiura's caliber, it would have happened by now. Countless teams have reportedly balked at the asking price of an Acuna, Robles, Bellinger, Tucker, Hiura, etc. At this point, in this market, a team isn't going to all of a sudden make someone like that available.

 

 

You mean like Brinson? Who wasn't available in the Quintana talks but then was moved for Yelich.

 

LOLOLOLOL...did you really just compare Quintana to Yelich? Hiura isn't available for Realmuto, but if the Angels are looking to move Mike Trout...yes Hiura is available.

[PDCBalla]

The guy who had a higher average WAR than Yelich not counting last year. But sure you can laugh.

[Oxy]

I might be willing to give up Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta if the Marlins would throw in a younger version(s) of those guys in return. A Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rodgers or Edward Cabrera, perhaps. Not sure I'd flip Hiura to get Isan Diaz back, but maybe Diaz+.

 

There are always creative ways to make deals work.

[reillymcshane]

Anderson + Thames for Castro is probably an overpay, but the proposed deals with Ray as a headliner for Realmuto aren't nearly enough IMO. Would take a miracle to get it done without Hiura, and if that happened it would definitely take Burnes.

 

If a team was willing to trade a prospect of Hiura's caliber, it would have happened by now. Countless teams have reportedly balked at the asking price of an Acuna, Robles, Bellinger, Tucker, Hiura, etc. At this point, in this market, a team isn't going to all of a sudden make someone like that available.

 

 

You mean like Brinson? Who wasn't available in the Quintana talks but then was moved for Yelich.

I have heard that Brinson was available, but the White Sox were not enamored with him. They had concerns about this swing and miss issues.

[KeithStone53151]

The guy who had a higher average WAR than Yelich not counting last year. But sure you can laugh.

 

Use one stat to try to drive your point home, classic.

 

Yelich still had massive upside, as has been made obvious this year...and 5 years of team control at age 26. Quintana was an established mid-rotation guy with declining peripherals and a lot of miles on his arm, and was 28 with 3.5 years of team control. He was also having a down year at the time of trade. Yelich at the time was far more valuable, and as of now is one of the best values in baseball. We aren't trading for what a guy has done, we are trading for what we project he will do.

 

And regardless of value, my comment wasn't about our willingness to trade Hiura. My comment was that no team has deemed their top prospects worth trading for Realmuto. The Marlins have asked about all those guys and all teams have reportedly told them to pound sand. The way the catching market is progressing and with Realmuto's 2nd half and loss of 1 year of team control...offers aren't going to increase.

[adambr2]

That's not really a bad comparison Keith. They don't compare now, but you can't look at now, you have to look at the time Quintana was traded. He had extremely high value and Yelich wasn't at the level he is now. Given the headliner you could easily argue the White Sox did far better for Quintana than the Marlins did for Yelich. "Declining established mid-rotation arm" is revisionist history, that's not how he was perceived at the time. If that was what the Cubs expected to get, they certainly wouldn't have given up Eloy Jimenez for him.

 

And we have no way of knowing what kind of a headliner will be needed for Realmuto just because it hasn't happened yet. Trade markets fluctuate for a variety of reasons. Andujar may be going to Miami for Realmuto and if so that's a pretty solid headliner.

[KeithStone53151]

That's not really a bad comparison Keith. They don't compare now, but you can't look at now, you have to look at the time Quintana was traded. He had extremely high value and Yelich wasn't at the level he is now. Given the headliner you could easily argue the White Sox did far better for Quintana than the Marlins did for Yelich.

 

And we have no way of knowing what kind of a headliner will be needed for Realmuto just because it hasn't happened yet. Trade markets fluctuate for a variety of reasons. Andujar may be going to Miami for Realmuto and if so that's a pretty solid headliner.

 

There's still a lot of hope for the prospects we sent over, but yes the Quintana package looks better. That's primarily because the Cubs overpaid, classic all-in Theo. Trading Jimenez was insanity, and I was so glad they did it at the time. It was so obvious this guy was going to be a star. 300 avg and 30 hr type guy consistently. So, arguing that their values were similar at the time because the Cubs wildly overpaid is not fair. We also did get a good deal on Yelich, it's obvious at this point. I guess you could argue their market values were similar, but the actual values they were going to provide is not close...Yelich was always going to be more valuable. Look at all the factors in play, and it's pretty obvious.

[tmwiese55]

That's all irrelevant to the point Stone was making though, you missed the point. He was saying that if a team was going to give up a Huira type prospect for Realmuto they likely would have done so already since he's been available for a year already. Sure, maybe someone could get desperate and cave, but it's logical to assume everyone has balked on that so far. he wasn't saying that said top level prospects wouldn't be used for other players.

[adambr2]

That's all irrelevant to the point Stone was making though, you missed the point. He was saying that if a team was going to give up a Huira type prospect for Realmuto they likely would have done so already since he's been available for a year already. Sure, maybe someone could get desperate and cave, but it's logical to assume everyone has balked on that so far. he wasn't saying that said top level prospects wouldn't be used for other players.

 

I guess that depends how high you're subjectively valuing Hiura. Top 10 prospect like Tucker, Whitley, Robles? Probably not. But, you never know. It only takes one team to overpay which is why I think the Quintana discussion is relevant here. Jimenez was a top 5 prospect at the time. No one gave the White Sox what they wanted for Quintana pre-2017, but the Cubs caved later. So if that could happen with Quintana, why couldn't it happen with Realmuto?

 

Prospect more in the 25-35 range is still a good likelihood IMO or a young emerging MLB player. Hiura's value is still kind of not something universally agreed upon. Some rankings may have him in their top 10, others may have him around the #30 spot that he currently occupies for MLB Pipeline.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, I said that in there. Of course someone could cave. His point was imply that at this point MIA has been asking for these type of top tier prospects and so far everyone has said No. so while there is a chance someone could cave, there is also a good chance that top tier guy won't go. The talk that Brinson wasn't available for one guy but was for another is irrelevant to the whole point.

 

Well, for Quintana they started their tear down that year and traded him at that deadline. Miami has been sitting on him for a year, they should probably pull the trigger this offseason but who knows maybe they'll hold out if no one gives these top guys and see what happens. But yea the Quintana scenario is a comparable situation to a degree as they likely held out until someone caved with a top guy. What didn't matter was the person saying that if Brinson wasn't available for Quintana but he was for Yelich shows something. It was for different players and positions with different contracts.

[KeithStone53151]

That's all irrelevant to the point Stone was making though, you missed the point. He was saying that if a team was going to give up a Huira type prospect for Realmuto they likely would have done so already since he's been available for a year already. Sure, maybe someone could get desperate and cave, but it's logical to assume everyone has balked on that so far. he wasn't saying that said top level prospects wouldn't be used for other players.

 

I guess that depends how high you're subjectively valuing Hiura. Top 10 prospect like Tucker, Whitley, Robles? Probably not. But, you never know. It only takes one team to overpay which is why I think the Quintana discussion is relevant here. Jimenez was a top 5 prospect at the time. No one gave the White Sox what they wanted for Quintana pre-2017, but the Cubs caved later. So if that could happen with Quintana, why couldn't it happen with Realmuto?

 

Prospect more in the 25-35 range is still a good likelihood IMO or a young emerging MLB player. Hiura's value is still kind of not something universally agreed upon. Some rankings may have him in their top 10, others may have him around the #30 spot that he currently occupies for MLB Pipeline.

 

I'll give you that's fair. I just highly doubt it happens at this point. The Marlins seem to clearly know they have to trade him now to get max value. The risk of keeping him is too great. If he opens the season with a low 700s OPS or worse, or he gets hurt...they might be looking at a deal headlined by a fringe top 100 caliber prospect at the deadline. I have to imagine the offers are better than that right now.

 

And with Hiura, I don't think he's in that Jimenez/Tucker tier...but he's just a shade below it in the 8-20 overall range. If you look at prospect lists and go through the prospects in the 18-35 range, Hiura clearly outclasses most of them. Hiura has Daniel Murphy in his prime written all over him.

[KeithStone53151]

Yup, I said that in there. Of course someone could cave. His point was imply that at this point MIA has been asking for these type of top tier prospects and so far everyone has said No. so while there is a chance someone could cave, there is also a good chance that top tier guy won't go. The talk that Brinson wasn't available for one guy but was for another is irrelevant to the whole point.

 

Well, for Quintana they started their tear down that year and traded him at that deadline. Miami has been sitting on him for a year, they should probably pull the trigger this offseason but who knows maybe they'll hold out if no one gives these top guys and see what happens. But yea the Quintana scenario is a comparable situation to a degree as they likely held out until someone caved with a top guy. What didn't matter was the person saying that if Brinson wasn't available for Quintana but he was for Yelich shows something. It was for different players and positions with different contracts.

 

The White Sox(similar to the Rays) had a lot more time to hold out for the right deal. The Marlins have 2 years of team control on Realmuto, and his value drops a ton at the deadline when it's 1 and 1/3 years of production. Also Quintana at the time had quite a bit more value than Realmuto. 3.5 years of control vs 2. That 2 year point is really a sweet spot for team planning, less than that doesn't seem like a ton of team control and feels a bit like a rental.

[adambr2]

I'd agree on Hiura, I'd expect him to be somewhere in the ballpark of #15. Just not sure how much the AzFL performance will help him and how much the arm concerns will hurt him.

[adambr2]

That 2 year point is really a sweet spot for team planning, less than that doesn't seem like a ton of team control and feels a bit like a rental.

 

True, although I would say the difference between 1 and 1+ is bigger than the difference between 2 and 1+. If a team trades for Realmuto in July, they still have him for 2 pennant races which is the most important thing. Lucroy is a good comparable here. Remember when he made the comments about wanting to play for a contender? That was pre-season 2016, with 2 years of control remaining. Lucroy was coming off a down season. We could have sold then, but we didn't and he rebounded, and we did better at the deadline than we probably otherwise would have with 2 years control.

 

If Realmuto has the 1st half he had in 2018, I think they'll be fine waiting til then if they don't get the offer they want. Of course the risky flip side is he could have a bad down year or get injured and then your last good window to cash in your trade chip is gone.

[tmwiese55]

Exactly, the risk of injury or a bad first half is there whereas Luc was coming off a down year so a chance to re-prove himself could help his value. Not sure JT's could be higher than it is now and with every team that fills their C need it goes down a smidge.

[Boomer5]

We aren’t getting him for Jesus, Davies, Broxton, and any other spare parts.

 

It’s going to take Hiura or Burnes +++

[KeithStone53151]

We aren’t getting him for Jesus, Davies, Broxton, and any other spare parts.

 

It’s going to take Hiura or Burnes +++

 

I think that's been pretty significantly refuted by multiple posters.

[KeithStone53151]

I love trolling fan forums of other teams. Some guy on one of these 3 teams boards offered this 3 team deal

 

NYY - Thor

NYM - Realmuto + NYY pitching prospect + rojas

MIA - Andujar + Rosario

 

Anyone venture to guess which board this came from? The best part, it's taken generally seriously by most on the board...as if it's a good offer.

[HiAndTight]

I think Davies had established himself as having pretty good value at the end of 2017, but 2018 may have completely erased all of that. He's a small guy and teams will always worry about his durability and last year he only got to 66 innings. His average fWAR/bWAR last year was only 0.2 (was on the negative side in bWAR). If you included all the good with the bad, from 2016-2018 his numbers are a pretty unremarkable 4.06 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.12 FIP, 106 ERA+.

 

I wouldn't be very interested in Davies if I were sitting in the Marlins GM chair. I'd probably say right up-front that Davies value would have to represent <25% of the value that I would need back in the package to trade Realmuto. Also would immediately point out that I'd have absolutely zero interest in adding Chase Anderson or Eric Thames. Then I'd state that without Hiura or Burnes being part of the deal, that I would be 99.99% confident that I could find a better offer elsewhere.

 

 

I think if you're going to trade for a guy who's still cost controlled, but is has recently struggled, you're looking for a guy who has a high ceiling, but the team that he's currently on can't wait on him to see if he'll reach said ceiling. You take a chance on them because if they put it together, at the trade deadline you have a guy you can then flip. I am just guessing, but I would think when the Marlins look at a small guy like Davies without overpowering stuff, there just isn't much reason for them to want him in return for one of the best catchers in baseball with multiple years of control left.

 

 

I would place Realmuto's value at this point close to Yelich's value last year. Realmuto is definitely a more valuable asset coming off his last season as compared to Yelich at this point last year, but Yelich had more team control. So I think you'd have to look at a similar type trade. They'd want an elite prospect(Brinson was definitely elite, and not that it's the point right now, but I always thought he'd struggle until he got ~1000 PA's) in the big leagues and then start having some success. But then we also had to give up two other guys who made top 100 lists and a 4th guy who rounded out the trade and was a bit of a lottery ticket. A lefty with pedestrian stuff, but that's on top of a top 15 prospect and two other top 100-ish prospects. I don't see Davies fitting in there without them wanting Hirura or Burnes+a Woodruff/Peralta...and then at that point, you could start to maybe talk about a couple young guys with team control and mixed results in the big leagues like Santana and or Davies.

[HiAndTight]

We aren’t getting him for Jesus, Davies, Broxton, and any other spare parts.

 

It’s going to take Hiura or Burnes +++

 

I think that's been pretty significantly refuted by multiple posters.

 

 

They've disagreed with it....I don't know how it can be "refuted." Just as I disagree with your premise that Quintana had more value than Realmuto at the time of each trade. Of course I don't like absolute statements in any respect, such as stating absolutely what is and isn't going to happen...

 

 

With the state of catching in the big leagues right now, if you can add a guy who can be a middle of the order bat and who can play very good defense, that can make an enormous impact on a team. Of course just because I think Realmuto is more valuable now than Quintana is when he was traded doesn't mean the return is gonna be the same. I think the Cubs over paid for Quintana.