J.T. Realmuto

[TURBO]

MLB.com's Jon Morosi reports that the Marlins are insisting that Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley be part of any trade package they get from the Astros for J.T. Realmuto.

 

Tucker and Whitley are both considered top-10 prospects in all of baseball, but it's no surprise that the Marlins would insist on netting one of them for Realmuto. The 27-year-old is coming off a season in which he sported a .277/.340/.484 batting line with 21 home runs and 74 RBI. He's under team control for two more seasons.

 

Source: MLB.comNov 16 - 8:50 AM

[KeithStone53151]

MLB.com's Jon Morosi reports that the Marlins are insisting that Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley be part of any trade package they get from the Astros for J.T. Realmuto.

 

Tucker and Whitley are both considered top-10 prospects in all of baseball, but it's no surprise that the Marlins would insist on netting one of them for Realmuto. The 27-year-old is coming off a season in which he sported a .277/.340/.484 batting line with 21 home runs and 74 RBI. He's under team control for two more seasons.

 

Source: MLB.comNov 16 - 8:50 AM

 

They can insist on whatever nonsense they want. We all saw how that worked out with the Nationals and Braves. I'd bet the Marlins hold Realmuto, then for either injury or performance reasons...his value drops significantly by the deadline.

[JosephC]

It will be interesting to see if a deal with Houston could be worked out. A reasonable headliner would be Yordan Alvarez. Unfortunately for both sides, Alvarez looks like a future DH and that wouldn't work for the Marlins. The Astros probably consider Tucker and Whitley as untouchables and I don't think they would move either for a 2 year commitment. Then, according to the MLB Pipeline, the next guy on the list is a back 100 pitcher who doesn't seem to grade any higher than Freddy Peralta. Hard to see him being a headliner in Realmuto trade.

 

If the Astros don't give up Tucker or Whitley and the Marlins don't like Alvarez, then it's hard to see a deal between the two sides getting completed. Like if the Brewers could swing a deal without Hiura, the prospect return would likely be pretty overwhelming in terms of quantity. Would be the same for the Astros in a non-Tucker/Whitley/Alvarez deal. Maybe something like RHP-Josh James, RHP-J.B. Bukauskas, SS-Freudis Nova, LHP-Cionel Perez and C-Garrett Stubbs.

[reillymcshane]

Marlins are reportedly putting an even higher price on Realmuto than they did last winter since he had an even better year in 2018 than 2017. Plus he's cemented himself as one of the premier players at the catcher position by having another really good season.

 

No matter what people offer for Realmuto, the Marlins will have a lot of suitors. They should get a very nice package of players back.

[reillymcshane]

Who said Houston would give that much? It is just a way to drive up the cost. If Houston wants to give up that much, let them.

 

At the end of the day, no one really know what packages are being offered, and how the Marlins value each of them. Judging by who the Marlins chose in the Yelich deal, though, I would imagine that they are going to focus more on tools and upside than prospects that are MLB ready. But just because a team offers a theoretical package of multiple guys on some arbitrary Top 100 list doesn't mean that the Marlins don't put a higher value on a different package.

 

I think this is very true in the fact that the Marlins will assess each package based upon their own criteria. For their own reasons, they are going to value specific players differently than other teams.

 

In 2017, the White Sox were supposedly not enamored with Lewis Brinson - thus making him a less attractive trade chip in our quest to get Quintana.

 

When the Crew got Greinke back in 2010, the Royals were looking for some very specific types of players. They wanted major league ready players at SS, CF and pitcher. Milwaukee was able to measure up well with them (Escobar at SS, Cain in CF, Jeffress at P - plus Odorizzi). Many people thought the Royals missed out at the time - feeling they didn't get any great players in exchange for an established great pitcher. It was more of a quantity for quality trade - but it worked well for KC, so they won't argue.

 

I will say that, generally, when you have a premium talent - like Realmuto - a team will try and get a premium prospect(s) back. In this league, it's difficult to acquire young talent that you believe has all-star potential. It usually takes quality to get quality.

 

But whatever works, if the team wants Realmuto, they should make their pitch and see if it works. If not, move on.

[sveumrules]

There are going to be two possible ways to acquire Realmuto. One, be the first to blink & offer up the blue chip headliner the Marlins covet.

 

Or, B. Wait them & the rest of the catching market out. With the Rays trading for Zunino & now the Nats signing Suzuki, couples are starting to pair up & go home. Grandal & Ramos will knock two more suitors off the list eventually.

 

If we wait long enough it might just be us & the Marlins left at the dance & maybe then they'll lower their standards instead of going home alone.

[JDBrewCrew]

FWIW.....

 

Steve Phillips

Verified account

@StevePhillipsGM

53s53 seconds ago

More Steve Phillips Retweeted Craig Mish

I am hearing that the #Marlins are telling teams in the NL East that they won’t likely trade him within the division. That is why the catching market is starting to pop. Look for the #Braves, #Mets and #Phillies to move on to other backstops as well.

[NievesNoNO]

FWIW.....

 

Steve Phillips

Verified account

@StevePhillipsGM

53s53 seconds ago

More Steve Phillips Retweeted Craig Mish

I am hearing that the #Marlins are telling teams in the NL East that they won’t likely trade him within the division. That is why the catching market is starting to pop. Look for the #Braves, #Mets and #Phillies to move on to other backstops as well.

 

Never really understood that concept. Why limit yourself when you're not going to be good. I guess I'd sort of understand if they were planning on being competitive but not in the state they're in. Good for the rest of the teams wanting to acquire him I guess

[JDBrewCrew]

Agreed. This just makes sveumrules scenario B more plausible.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Watching these catcher chips fall is a very good thing for the Brewers if they are truly interested in Realmuto. Even though they may say they are not trading him in their own division, I'm not going to believe the Braves are out until they grab a guy like Ramos.

[KeithStone53151]

The more I think about this, this could actually be a bit of a clever play by the Marlins. On it's face, it seems stupid to limit the market in such a manner. But if NL East teams start exploring other options and making serious offers for FA like Grandal and Ramos, the Dodgers/Astros will have to either accelerate talks with the Marlins or quickly get involved on these FA. There are certainly more suitors for Realmuto outside the NL East than just the Dodgers/Astros, so I don't think this overly limits their market.

 

My money is on the Dodgers and Verdugo being part of the return. I know that is extremely contradictory to all my statements on the type of talent the Marlins could get. Verdugo isn't quite the prospect that Robles, Soto, Acuna, and Hiura are, but he's still a better prospect than I anticipated they would get. I just think the Dodgers are going to get a bit desperate and try to really put themselves over the hump before their roster ages too much and they have to rebuild. Pretty much every impact player on that team besides Bellinger and Buehler will be a FA after 3 more seasons. Many including Turner, Kemp, Puig, Hernandez, Wood, and Pederson will be gone in the next 2 seasons. Add in the comments about the Dodgers planning to stay under the luxury tax for the next 4 seasons, Realmuto fits so perfectly in that window. And the Marlins I feel like could have interest in an OBP driven corner outfielder to pair with the boom/bust guys they got from us...plus I anticipate Verdugo being a step ahead of all other offers they've received.

[sveumrules]

Agree that Dodgers seem like the best fit. Verdugo with one of their catcher prospects (Smith/Ruiz) plus another back end top 10 organizational guy of the Marlins liking probably beats anything we can offer that doesn't include Hiura or Burnes.

[KeithStone53151]

Agree that Dodgers seem like the best fit. Verdugo with one of their catcher prospects (Smith/Ruiz) plus another back end top 10 organizational guy of the Marlins liking probably beats anything we can offer that doesn't include Hiura or Burnes.

 

That's a lot, Marlins might have to send something back in that case. Both those catchers rate higher than Nottingham as of now. Not a great prospect, just something. An upper levels bullpen arm, an 18-20 year old guy outside the top 30 but with some tools...something. Seems to be workable though.

[reillymcshane]

FWIW.....

 

Steve Phillips

Verified account

@StevePhillipsGM

53s53 seconds ago

More Steve Phillips Retweeted Craig Mish

I am hearing that the #Marlins are telling teams in the NL East that they won’t likely trade him within the division. That is why the catching market is starting to pop. Look for the #Braves, #Mets and #Phillies to move on to other backstops as well.

 

Never really understood that concept. Why limit yourself when you're not going to be good. I guess I'd sort of understand if they were planning on being competitive but not in the state they're in. Good for the rest of the teams wanting to acquire him I guess

I can understand it if you think you'll be competing against these teams in the next couple of years. But there's little chance that the Marlins are in the playoff race the next two years, so who cares if a former player is beating you.

 

In fact, trading him within your division weakens a division rival down the road - since the guys you acquire won't be helping that team - and Realmuto (or whomever) has moved on as a free agent in two years.

 

Sure there's a chance Realmuto signs an extension and he haunts you further down the road - but those are the risks you take. It's just as likely that he leaves as a free agent in two years.

 

Oh well. Shortsighted in my opinion.

[anglotiger]

Marlins are reportedly putting an even higher price on Realmuto than they did last winter since he had an even better year in 2018 than 2017.

 

 

How much is this influenced by the Yelich trade? Yelich is the MVP and, while it's too early to judge, they have to be a bit underwhelmed/embarrassed by the return so far. They may feel that they undervalued their commodity and want to be sure that they don't make the same "mistake" again - that they "win" this trade. The problem with that thinking is that you're an injury away from getting nothing - not to mention that each passing season (or even half-season) sees the potential return drop in value.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just saw that Brian McCann signed with the Braves. I imagine that takes them out of the running for Realmuto, as they are speculating that McCann and Flowers will form a committee. Of course, it likely opens up the Astros as a possible Realmuto destination.

 

Still, with the Nationals and Braves filling their catching holes, that eliminates the two likeliest contenders for Realmuto.

[packer822]

I would guess it would be us....the dodgers and the astros

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would guess it would be us....the dodgers and the astros

 

And that's with Ramos and Grandal still out there as frontline free agents, too, along with a bunch of 2nd tier guys. The Dodgers and Astros certainly have the horses in their minors to make a deal, as do the Brewers. We'll see which team bites first.

[KeithStone53151]

The guy that broke the Moustakas trade hours before anyone else, says Marlins demanding Hiura and Brewers not interested. I'm taking this with a grain of salt myself, you all can have your own opinion.

 

https://twitter.com/bucksbrett/status/1067076583452786689

[pacopete4]

Damn. Well, it makes sense that they’d want Hiura as he’s a great prospect.

[Devinep]

Damn. Well, it makes sense that they’d want Hiura as he’s a great prospect.

 

It’s very tempting, but it’s gotta be Peralta/Nottingham+ IMO. Otherwise the gain there isn’t worth it. With the dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, and others in, the price will likely get too high

[wallus]

Damn. Well, it makes sense that they’d want Hiura as he’s a great prospect.

 

It’s very tempting, but it’s gotta be Peralta/Nottingham+ IMO. Otherwise the gain there isn’t worth it. With the dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, and others in, the price will likely get too high

 

If you were the Marlins would you really take Peralta and Nottingham as the headliners in a trade for one of the best catchers in the game? I would not.

[pacopete4]

Damn. Well, it makes sense that they’d want Hiura as he’s a great prospect.

 

It’s very tempting, but it’s gotta be Peralta/Nottingham+ IMO. Otherwise the gain there isn’t worth it. With the dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, and others in, the price will likely get too high

 

If you were the Marlins would you really take Peralta and Nottingham as the headliners in a trade for one of the best catchers in the game? I would not.

 

All depends on what the other offers are. In two years he is gone. They’d be wise to get what they can for him now.

[JosephC]

After going through and reviewing the prospect surplus value chart for 2018 (Point of Pittsburgh), and doing an adjustment for 2019 that is in line with the increases from 2016 to 2018, I've determined that Hiura's prospect surplus value probably runs around 65 million. If one buys into the idea that Hiura should fall around #25 on the prospect list and Realmuto will be about a 4.2 WAR player each of the next two seasons, then their surplus values would be just about equal. IMO, after review, a straight up swap between the two seems to be a pretty fair swap between the two teams.

[wallus]

[

 

All depends on what the other offers are. In two years he is gone. They’d be wise to get what they can for him now.

 

I would be shocked if he isn't on the Astros by spring training. They have a strong system and an obvious need.