J.T. Realmuto

[Boomer5]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

[Boomer5]

Right, I don't think anybody is trying to say Davies should headline a package for Realmuto. But would Davies have more value than Ponce as a 3rd or 4th piece? Without question. Davies probably could be a legit 2nd/3rd piece depending on the 1st piece. Look no further than us trading Thornburg for Shaw + Dubon + Pennington. Rebuilding, but took back a 25 year old at a position of need with upside. Davies also happens to be 25...

 

No one want to pay for Davies when they have no intention of contending despite his value being higher than say a Dubon or a Nottingham.

 

I’m actually a big Davies fan so I wouldn’t trade him at such a low point anyhow.

[OnaBadger58]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

Not that they will all pan out, but I'd be surprised if the Marlins wanted four of our top OF prospects in back-to-back trades. I would think they would want a pitcher thrown in there. Never thought this would be a potential thing, but the Brewers would be really thin at the OF position in the minors.

 

Overall, that seems like a nice haul for the Marlins. I would try to swap Lutz out for a pitching prospect.

[reillymcshane]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

I think this is similar to a Hiura, Peralta/Burnes, another piece or two offer - as I feel Burnes or Peralta offer more than Lutz does at this time.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

 

Hiura isn't going anywhere, I also would think the Marlins would be more interested in pitching than 2 OF and a 2b.

 

Regardless, this package is a touch steep. Switch Hiura with Peralta/Woodruff and it makes a bit more sense.

[KeithStone53151]

Right, I don't think anybody is trying to say Davies should headline a package for Realmuto. But would Davies have more value than Ponce as a 3rd or 4th piece? Without question. Davies probably could be a legit 2nd/3rd piece depending on the 1st piece. Look no further than us trading Thornburg for Shaw + Dubon + Pennington. Rebuilding, but took back a 25 year old at a position of need with upside. Davies also happens to be 25...

 

No one want to pay for Davies when they have no intention of contending despite his value being higher than say a Dubon or a Nottingham.

 

I’m actually a big Davies fan so I wouldn’t trade him at such a low point anyhow.

 

Again, you do need players on the 25 man roster. You aren't going to go from 60 wins to 90 wins in one season. You can't try to time 12 prospect callups all at once and go from trash to contender overnight, it doesn't work that way. Incremental build up. And Davies is young with team control, and can help stabilize their rotation a bit for a few years. Again, targeting Davies is literally no different than us targeting Shaw during a rebuild. I pretty clearly outlined why your comment didn't make sense before you even typed it out...

[MillerParkSouth]

yeah, makes more sense for the Brewers lol

[KeithStone53151]

yeah, makes more sense for the Brewers lol

 

If the Marlins were going to get a top 15 prospect, it would have happened last year or at the deadline...swapping out Hiura with Peralta/Woodruff makes more sense based on the Marlins needs, our needs, previously reported offers, precedent from the lucroy trade...etc etc etc.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

 

Puk and Luzardo for Realmuto, LOL. This yahoo lost all credibility with that offer.

[Eye Black]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

 

Puk and Luzardo for Realmuto, LOL. This yahoo lost all credibility with that offer.

I can’t even tell which side of that deal you think is laugh out loud funny? He also says it would require a third piece as well.

 

Kiley is one of the more credible baseball talent evaluators currently writing in the public sphere, not really a “yahoo” in my opinion.

[trwi7]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

 

Puk and Luzardo for Realmuto, LOL. This yahoo lost all credibility with that offer.

 

Puk is out for the year and while the return from TJS is usually good, it's not guaranteed.

[tmwiese55]

Right, I don't think anybody is trying to say Davies should headline a package for Realmuto. But would Davies have more value than Ponce as a 3rd or 4th piece? Without question. Davies probably could be a legit 2nd/3rd piece depending on the 1st piece. Look no further than us trading Thornburg for Shaw + Dubon + Pennington. Rebuilding, but took back a 25 year old at a position of need with upside. Davies also happens to be 25...

 

No one want to pay for Davies when they have no intention of contending despite his value being higher than say a Dubon or a Nottingham.

 

I’m actually a big Davies fan so I wouldn’t trade him at such a low point anyhow.

 

Again, you do need players on the 25 man roster. You aren't going to go from 60 wins to 90 wins in one season. You can't try to time 12 prospect callups all at once and go from trash to contender overnight, it doesn't work that way. Incremental build up. And Davies is young with team control, and can help stabilize their rotation a bit for a few years. Again, targeting Davies is literally no different than us targeting Shaw during a rebuild. I pretty clearly outlined why your comment didn't make sense before you even typed it out...

 

We don't know. All I'm saying is they "might" have an interest in not being awful after being made fun of and embarrassed for a year. If their attitude is to not care at all and all out tank, then yea they're not going to put much stock in Davies/Anderson types. IMO there is a value in not being a joke, but they might not think that way. I'm just saying it might be a possibility and we have some guys that fit if that is the case.

[KeithStone53151]

Also they could be on the upswing in 2020 or 2021, and Davies/Anderson would still be around. Might have to try and extend them at that point but again...incremental increases. And I'll agree with tmwiese, they might not want to incrementally increase and might prefer to keep payroll at rock bottom and just be bad while raking in TV revenue and revenue sharing.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

 

Puk and Luzardo for Realmuto, LOL. This yahoo lost all credibility with that offer.

I can’t even tell which side of that deal you think is laugh out loud funny? He also says it would require a third piece as well.

 

Kiley is one of the more credible baseball talent evaluators currently writing in the public sphere, not really a “yahoo” in my opinion.

 

Luzardo and Puk both have wicked stuff and both project as frontline starters. You could argue both have higher ceilings than any of our big 3 young arms, and they are in AAA so their floor is pretty high as well at this point. I don't think Realmuto could land those 2 arms. I'll admit the Puk TJ situation complicates the values a bit, but if he was healthy...it wouldn't be close. A TJ situation is tricky because the team with the player will probably value him as if healthy, and if they dont...the other team will wonder what's going wrong in his rehab. One of those two and a couple other significant prospects is probably closer to a fair offer.

[MrTPlush]

Davies and Anderson would be good targets for them so they can flip them. Both would likely excel in their park and create decent trade value. The packages you can trade them for is better than the prospect we would likely give them.

[KeithStone53151]

Davies and Anderson would be good targets for them so they can flip them. Both would likely excel in their park and create decent trade value. The packages you can trade them for is better than the prospect we would likely give them.

 

Examples include JA Happ, Lance Lynn, and Sonny Gray of what might be similar trades that just happened the last year or two...that netted very solid returns. You could look at those guys as an incremental upgrade, or as a flip candidate as noted.

[JosephC]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

 

The stunning part of this is that the author (McDaniel) rates Hiura #22, Lutz #68 and Ray #89. Hiura's ranking looks fairly accurate. But IMO that ranking for Lutz is EXTREMELY high compared to what I would consider the "general opinion" and maybe Ray is a bit high as well...although placing Ray at the back end of the top 100 certainly isn't unreasonable.

 

When I had Hiura/Peralta/McClanahan a few pages back, I would have completely guessed their rankings as Hiura ~30, Peralta ~90 (if still eligible) and McClanahan ~480. To me, the difference in value between Lutz/Ray versus Peralta/McClanahan isn't that great. I'd probably put Ray ~110 and Lutz ~225. But here where McDaniel has Hiura plus two more top 90 players...that's a pretty staggering return for Realmuto IMO.

 

What I'd really like to see is if McDaniel would make a guess on a package that would exclude Hiura. I think that is the one that would completely floor most Brewer fans. Take Hiura's prospect surplus value out of the mix and try to replace that!

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/

[homer]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

 

The stunning part of this is that the author (McDaniel) rates Hiura #22, Lutz #68 and Ray #89. Hiura's ranking looks fairly accurate. But IMO that ranking for Lutz is EXTREMELY high compared to what I would consider the "general opinion" and maybe Ray is a bit high as well...although placing Ray at the back end of the top 100 certainly isn't unreasonable.

 

McDaniel is using Fangraphs Top 100:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/?type=&pos=&team=all

[Lathund]

 

Fangraphs says Hiura, Lutz, Ray FWIW

 

The stunning part of this is that the author (McDaniel) rates Hiura #22, Lutz #68 and Ray #89. Hiura's ranking looks fairly accurate. But IMO that ranking for Lutz is EXTREMELY high compared to what I would consider the "general opinion" and maybe Ray is a bit high as well...although placing Ray at the back end of the top 100 certainly isn't unreasonable.

 

McDaniel is using Fangraphs Top 100:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/?type=&pos=&team=all

 

Which he is responsible, along with Eric Longenhagen, for making.

 

IIRC McDaniel is a long time Lutz fan though. He was working for the Braves ahead of the 2017 draft, and was extremely impressed by what their data and private workouts with him showed. I'm trying to recall what specifically he said about it, but basically there were signs and/or data pointing to potentially having immense game power. So since then he's been regularly rated higher on Fangraphs lists than elsewhere.

[And That]

The stunning part of this is that the author (McDaniel) rates Hiura #22, Lutz #68 and Ray #89. Hiura's ranking looks fairly accurate. But IMO that ranking for Lutz is EXTREMELY high compared to what I would consider the "general opinion" and maybe Ray is a bit high as well...although placing Ray at the back end of the top 100 certainly isn't unreasonable.

I don't think the Lutz rating is unreasonable at all. That's the beautiful thing about scouting. And also why top 100 lists, and especially the back halves of them, aren't that useful in prospect evaluation.

 

I have Lutz at about a 55 OFP, which would very reasonably not only be included in the same range as Ray, but probably above him.

[Boomer5]

The writer is essentially saying two years JTR will cost one premium prospect and two 50-100 caliber prospects.

 

That seems very likely.

[OnaBadger58]

Craig Mish‏

@CraigMish

 

Sources also indicate Marlins are asking price on Realmuto is a high end young pitching prospect and a position player. A potential two for one.

 

[trwi7]

Craig Mish‏

@CraigMish

 

Sources also indicate Marlins are asking price on Realmuto is a high end young pitching prospect and a position player. A potential two for one.

 

 

So Burnes and Hiura.

[TURBO]

Craig Mish‏

@CraigMish

 

Sources also indicate Marlins are asking price on Realmuto is a high end young pitching prospect and a position player. A potential two for one.

 

 

So Burnes and Hiura.

 

HARD HARD HARD HARD HARD PASS!

[OnaBadger58]

Craig Mish‏

@CraigMish

 

Sources also indicate Marlins are asking price on Realmuto is a high end young pitching prospect and a position player. A potential two for one.

 

 

So Burnes and Hiura.

 

Basically. There is a steep drop off right now from Hiura to the next positional player. They may be willing to accept Turang or Lutz, but I have a feeling there will be better offers out there.