J.T. Realmuto

[KeithStone53151]

Peralta/Woodruff, Nottingham, Davies or Anderson or Thames or Santana?? Come on now.... this should be in blue.

 

This reminds me of George Constanza from Seinfeld “I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn’t have to give up that much.”

 

Are you applying any sort of precedent or critical thinking to your trade offer? That should be in blue because the answer is obvious...

 

Peralta/Woodruff has equal or more value to the entire Lucroy return. And i've explained how Lucroy is probably the closest comparison we have to work from. Nottingham and the MLB piece would have significant value. Thames probably wouldn't be the guy, it would probably be one of the other 3 or maybe a young bullpen piece like Williams/Houser...largely dependent on what the Marlins want.

 

Sometimes teams get desperate and overpay. Look no further than pretty much any significant trade the cubs have made over the last 3-4 years. If that happens, we lose and move on. I think if this offer doesn't get Realmuto, it's in the top 2 or 3 offers and would only lose because someone really blows the Marlins away with an offer.

[wallus]

Peralta/Woodruff, Nottingham, Davies or Anderson or Thames or Santana?? Come on now.... this should be in blue.

 

This reminds me of George Constanza from Seinfeld “I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn’t have to give up that much.”

 

I haven't seen anyone throw that specifically out. But, well, that package is better than what we got for Lucroy + JJ in my opinion.

 

Post #599.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Peralta/Woodruff, Nottingham, Davies or Anderson or Thames or Santana?? Come on now.... this should be in blue.

 

This reminds me of George Constanza from Seinfeld “I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn’t have to give up that much.”

 

Are you applying any sort of precedent or critical thinking to your trade offer? That should be in blue because the answer is obvious...

 

Peralta/Woodruff has equal or more value to the entire Lucroy return. And i've explained how Lucroy is probably the closest comparison we have to work from. Nottingham and the MLB piece would have significant value. Thames probably wouldn't be the guy, it would probably be one of the other 3 or maybe a young bullpen piece like Williams/Houser...largely dependent on what the Marlins want.

 

Sometimes teams get desperate and overpay. Look no further than pretty much any significant trade the cubs have made over the last 3-4 years. If that happens, we lose and move on. I think if this offer doesn't get Realmuto, it's in the top 2 or 3 offers and would only lose because someone really blows the Marlins away with an offer.

 

I think you are spot on. Proven, affordable MLB talent should theoretically be worth more than potential talent such as Harrison, Diaz and Yamamoto. If the Marlins got a package of Peralta, Nottingham, and Davies or Santana for Realmuto, that would be a lot of young value.

[KeithStone53151]

I haven't seen anyone throw that specifically out. But, well, that package is better than what we got for Lucroy + JJ in my opinion.

 

Post #599.

 

I made that suggestion. No sense in trying to reinvent the wheel. Realmuto is probably within 0.5 WAR in either direction of what Lucroy was worth at the time of trade. Including all factors, I'd say Lucroy was worth maybe 70-80% of what Realmuto is currently worth. You can also look again at the Braves/Nationals scoffing at sending a single top 15 prospect to the Marlins for Realmuto when his value was even higher a year ago. Realmuto's value is going to fall somewhere between there.

[wallus]

 

 

Peralta/Woodruff has equal or more value to the entire Lucroy return.

 

Woodruff has more or equal value than Brinson and Ortiz when they were traded? We are talking about the same 26 year old pitcher that struggled starting and had a good 42 innings this past season? Brinson was the #21 rated prospect in MLB when he was traded. Ortiz was #63 in MLB when he was traded. Woodruff was as high as #80.

[tmwiese55]

Peralta/Woodruff, Nottingham, Davies or Anderson or Thames or Santana?? Come on now.... this should be in blue.

 

This reminds me of George Constanza from Seinfeld “I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn’t have to give up that much.”

 

I haven't seen anyone throw that specifically out. But, well, that package is better than what we got for Lucroy + JJ in my opinion.

 

Post #599.

 

Oh I see now, still he was spitballing things so didn't look at it that way. Again, it's better than what we got for Lucroy + JJ.

 

If they get an offer of a top 15 hitting prospect + two MLB ready SPs who've already had success at the MLB level with 6 years of control as is being proposed by some here, more power to them.

[tmwiese55]

 

 

Peralta/Woodruff has equal or more value to the entire Lucroy return.

 

Woodruff has more or equal value than Brinson and Ortiz when they were traded? We are talking about the same 26 year old pitcher that struggled starting and had a good 42 innings this past season? Brinson was the #21 rated prospect in MLB when he was traded. Ortiz was #63 in MLB when he was traded. Woodruff was as high as #80.

 

They were also in AA at the time. As you can see from using these two guys as obvious examples, getting from there to MLB is a much bigger leap and Wood/Peralta are already at that point with proven success and controlled for years. To that package though, you're also throwing in an MLB ready C prospect, who knows how he does. Plus two other MLB starters they could play or flip elsewhere for more prospect capital. The more i think about it the more I think it's drastically better than what we got for Luc/JJ

[wallus]

 

If they get an offer of a top 15 hitting prospect + two MLB ready SPs who've already had success at the MLB level with 6 years of control as is being proposed by some here, more power to them.

 

Who is the second MLB ready Starting Pitcher? Woodruff has only succeeded out of the bullpen.

[KeithStone53151]

 

If they get an offer of a top 15 hitting prospect + two MLB ready SPs who've already had success at the MLB level with 6 years of control as is being proposed by some here, more power to them.

 

Who is the second MLB ready Starting Pitcher? Woodruff has only succeeded out of the bullpen.

 

The pitcher we saw from August- October succeeded in multiple 3-5 inning stints and would have been just fine in the rotation. He'll be in the rotation in 2019 if not traded. You saw the stuff and the dominance for 3 straight months.

[tmwiese55]

 

If they get an offer of a top 15 hitting prospect + two MLB ready SPs who've already had success at the MLB level with 6 years of control as is being proposed by some here, more power to them.

 

Who is the second MLB ready Starting Pitcher? Woodruff has only succeeded out of the bullpen.

 

Well I didn't say that did I? I said ready, as in he's here ready to go at the MLB, not in AA with the who knows if he ever even makes the bigs issue. Moreover, Woodruff has successfully started several games for us in 2017 in a playoff race.

 

Go find any trades that are comparable to giving up Huira +Peralta + Woodruff(and some are also including Ray). I strongly doubt you can find one anywhere close to that package.

 

ETA: And again, I'm not saying MIA will take our offer without two of those top four guys (Wood,Burnes, Huira, Peralta). Someone could easily trump it, if so good for them. I'm fine with it. But there is no way I keep adding more and more of these guys when I might be bidding against myself. Burnes/Huira are completely off the table for me.

[wallus]

 

They were also in AA at the time. As you can see from using these two guys as obvious examples, getting from there to MLB is a much bigger leap and Wood/Peralta are already at that point with proven success and controlled for years. To that package though, you're also throwing in an MLB ready C prospect, who knows how he does. Plus two other MLB starters they could play or flip elsewhere for more prospect capital. The more i think about it the more I think it's drastically better than what we got for Luc/JJ

 

The Marlins are not ready to compete so you could make the argument that someone in AA has more value than someone that needs to be in the majors now.

 

Does anyone really think Woodruff would get a top 25 and a top 75 prospect right now?

[KeithStone53151]

 

If they get an offer of a top 15 hitting prospect + two MLB ready SPs who've already had success at the MLB level with 6 years of control as is being proposed by some here, more power to them.

 

Who is the second MLB ready Starting Pitcher? Woodruff has only succeeded out of the bullpen.

 

Well I didn't say that did I? I said ready, as in he's here ready to go at the MLB, not in AA with the who knows if he ever even makes the bigs issue. Moreover, Woodruff has successfully started several games for us in 2017 in a playoff race.

 

Go find any trades that are comparable to giving up Huira +Peralta + Woodruff(and some are also including Ray). I strongly doubt you can find one anywhere close to that package.

 

That's the type of package you see for Chris sale on a super team friendly deal with 4 years of control. Compare that to the sale return, it's pretty close

[KeithStone53151]

 

They were also in AA at the time. As you can see from using these two guys as obvious examples, getting from there to MLB is a much bigger leap and Wood/Peralta are already at that point with proven success and controlled for years. To that package though, you're also throwing in an MLB ready C prospect, who knows how he does. Plus two other MLB starters they could play or flip elsewhere for more prospect capital. The more i think about it the more I think it's drastically better than what we got for Luc/JJ

 

The Marlins are not ready to compete so you could make the argument that someone in AA has more value than someone that needs to be in the majors now.

 

Does anyone really think Woodruff would get a top 25 and a top 75 prospect right now?

 

Those rankings were dated at the time and brinson was coming off injury and struggled significantly at aa prior to the trade. His value was not that of a top 25 at the time, not even close.

[wallus]

Go find any trades that are comparable to giving up Huira +Peralta + Woodruff(and some are also including Ray). I strongly doubt you can find one anywhere close to that package.

 

 

Why would I do that? I never suggested trading Hiura in the first place.

[tmwiese55]

Who is the second MLB ready Starting Pitcher? Woodruff has only succeeded out of the bullpen.

 

Well I didn't say that did I? I said ready, as in he's here ready to go at the MLB, not in AA with the who knows if he ever even makes the bigs issue. Moreover, Woodruff has successfully started several games for us in 2017 in a playoff race.

 

Go find any trades that are comparable to giving up Huira +Peralta + Woodruff(and some are also including Ray). I strongly doubt you can find one anywhere close to that package.

 

That's the type of package you see for Chris sale on a super team friendly deal with 4 years of control. Compare that to the sale return, it's pretty close

 

 

 

Good idea. I looked at that one. cost controlled top 5 SP in baseball is about the most valuable traded player there could be outside of Trout.

 

Moncada: MLB ready 2B prospect. Comparable to Keston, slight edge to Moncada due to all his hype at the time (personally I thought overrated due to Red Sox hype machine)

Kopech: never pitched above A at time of trade. But was top draft pick so give him some extra value. Still less than Peralta or Burnes, comparable though and I see the argument the other way too

Basabe: never above A ball

Diaz: never above A ball

 

So essentially, these mega packages being thrown out here are comparable and in my opinion more that what Sale got back

[wallus]

 

Those rankings were dated at the time and brinson was coming off injury and struggled significantly at aa prior to the trade. His value was not that of a top 25 at the time, not even close.

 

So Woodruff has tremendous value around MLB now because of 42 innings in 2018? I highly doubt GM's work that way.

[reillymcshane]

Go find any trades that are comparable to giving up Huira +Peralta + Woodruff(and some are also including Ray). I strongly doubt you can find one anywhere close to that package.

I don't think anyone this offseason has suggested giving up Huira and Peralta and Woodruff (and Ray) for Realmuto.

 

The general idea seems to be it will cost us - on the high end - Huira plus one of Peralta/Woodruff/Burnes - and maybe some extra pieces.

 

But maybe I'm wrong and a bunch of people saying it will cost Huira, Peralta, Woodruff and Ray or whatever.

[KeithStone53151]

That's the type of package you see for Chris sale on a super team friendly deal with 4 years of control. Compare that to the sale return, it's pretty close

 

Good idea. I looked at that one. cost controlled top 5 SP in baseball is about the most valuable traded player there could be outside of Trout.

 

Moncada: MLB ready 2B prospect. Comparable to Keston, slight edge to Moncada due to all his hype at the time.

Kopech: never pitched above A at time of trade. But was top draft pick so give him some extra value. Still less than Peralta or Burnes, comparable though and I see the argument the other way too

Basabe: never above A ball

Diaz: never above A ball

 

So those offering Hiura + a big 3 arm + anything is offering a comparable package for Realmuto as what the Red Sox gave up for Sale. Sale had a 3/40 contract at the time of trade. Their values aren't even remotely close. Using WAR, Sale was a 5.3 WAR pitcher for 5 seasons prior to trade and moved at age 27. Realmuto is a 3.3 WAR player over the last 4 years or 4.0 over the last 2. And again, pitching is king. The catcher position is kinda like rb position on football considering the beating these guys take on a daily basis.

 

No sense in trying to reinvent the wheel. You can look at the Lucroy deal, and previously rejected offers by other teams for Realmuto to gauge what he'll go for. Figure something between a top 10-15 prospect(which was rejected by multiple teams) and a 40-60 range upside prospect and an older organizational AAAA type(lucroy deal...which I'm ignoring Ortiz as he probably offsets JJ in that deal).

[KeithStone53151]

 

Those rankings were dated at the time and brinson was coming off injury and struggled significantly at aa prior to the trade. His value was not that of a top 25 at the time, not even close.

 

So Woodruff has tremendous value around MLB now because of 42 innings in 2018? I highly doubt GM's work that way.

 

Those 42 innings. His previous 2+ years of excellent results in milb. Throwing a 97-99 mph fastball with improving offspeed offerings. Solid command of all 3 pitches. The list goes on...

[tmwiese55]

Go find any trades that are comparable to giving up Huira +Peralta + Woodruff(and some are also including Ray). I strongly doubt you can find one anywhere close to that package.

I don't think anyone this offseason has suggested giving up Huira and Peralta and Woodruff (and Ray) for Realmuto.

 

The general idea seems to be it will cost us - on the high end - Huira plus one of Peralta/Woodruff/Burnes - and maybe some extra pieces.

 

But maybe I'm wrong and a bunch of people saying it will cost Huira, Peralta, Woodruff and Ray or whatever.

 

Good post. I guess I don't want to dig back through and look but yes I could've fallen victim to lumping multiple packages together in my head and not remember exactly which pieces come out. For example, i think Wallus' didn't have Keston. He had two of the three Ps, Ray, and Nottingham. Think some posts before that had Huira though along with combinations of Ps. And a distinction would also be whether people are saying "thats what it would cost" vs them actually willing to do it.

[wallus]

 

Those rankings were dated at the time and brinson was coming off injury and struggled significantly at aa prior to the trade. His value was not that of a top 25 at the time, not even close.

 

So Woodruff has tremendous value around MLB now because of 42 innings in 2018? I highly doubt GM's work that way.

 

Those 42 innings. His previous 2+ years of excellent results in milb. Throwing a 97-99 mph fastball with improving offspeed offerings. Solid command of all 3 pitches. The list goes on...

 

What stats will Woodruff put up next season? You are obviously very high on him.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Once young pitchers have success in the majors, what small markets trade them for anything? My memory no doubts needs refreshing but what mid size and large market teams are out there trading young, MLB proven arms? The Brewers shouldn't be trading any of those 3 unless they're convinced one of them tops out as a reliever (cough Woodruff /cough). And even then, if they're going the tandem route, they should be hanging on to all 3.

 

Woodruff, Hiura + flyer prospects should be the highest the Brewers offer for Realmuto. And that's only if they're confident they have the budget and a good read on his willingness to sign an extension. With Yelich being one of his best pals, maybe there's a chance of that level of comfort existing. Otherwise the Brewers shouldn't be trading young MLB arms and their heir apparent at another weak position for a player of 2 years control.

[tmwiese55]

Once young pitchers have success in the majors, what small markets trade them for anything? My memory no doubts needs refreshing but what mid size and large market teams are out there trading young, MLB proven arms? The Brewers shouldn't be trading any of those 3 unless they're convinced one of them tops out as a reliever (cough Woodruff /cough). And even then, if they're going the tandem route, they should be hanging on to all 3.

 

Woodruff, Hiura + flyer prospects should be the highest the Brewers offer for Realmuto. And that's only if they're confident they have the budget and a good read on his willingness to sign an extension. With Yelich being one of his best pals, maybe there's a chance of that level of comfort existing. Otherwise the Brewers shouldn't be trading young MLB arms and their heir apparent at another weak position for a player of 2 years control.

 

I don't think I go that far even. Well I suppose if I have a 2B signed already, say Gonzales so we know we're set there for 3-4 years. Otherwise you're fixing one issue and creating another. Then maybe you can justify it, but still I go back to the Sale deal and look what they gave up. Kopech would be considered more Ace potential than Wood but was also years away from the bigs. I grant that package was more, but it's not thaaat much more for a true Ace signed for more years than a C (one of the most unpredictable spots due to wear/tear). I think that's too much to give up.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I don't think I go that far even. Well I suppose if I have a 2B signed already, say Gonzales so we know we're set there for 3-4 years. Otherwise you're fixing one issue and creating another. Then maybe you can justify it, but still I go back to the Sale deal and look what they gave up. Kopech would be considered more Ace potential than Wood but was also years away from the bigs. I grant that package was more, but it's not thaaat much more for a true Ace signed for more years than a C (one of the most unpredictable spots due to wear/tear). I think that's too much to give up.

 

Yeah like I said, I don't even go that far unless I'm very confident in Realmuto signing an extension. Including Hiura in the deal shifts the team weakness to 2B but at least that's easier to fill than C. But Hiura is not going to Miami if it looks like I'm only getting 2 years of Realmuto.

 

Since it's a slim chance Realmuto is willing to sign a deal right now, I'd say the chances of the Brewers dealing for him are slim to none.

[danzig6767]

Once young pitchers have success in the majors, what small markets trade them for anything? My memory no doubts needs refreshing but what mid size and large market teams are out there trading young, MLB proven arms? The Brewers shouldn't be trading any of those 3 unless they're convinced one of them tops out as a reliever (cough Woodruff /cough). And even then, if they're going the tandem route, they should be hanging on to all 3.

 

Woodruff, Hiura + flyer prospects should be the highest the Brewers offer for Realmuto. And that's only if they're confident they have the budget and a good read on his willingness to sign an extension. With Yelich being one of his best pals, maybe there's a chance of that level of comfort existing. Otherwise the Brewers shouldn't be trading young MLB arms and their heir apparent at another weak position for a player of 2 years control.

I know i'm probably in the minority, but i wouldn't trade Hiura for Realmuto straight up. That kid i think is going to be a special middle of the order hitter, secondbase is a need position, and he'll be dirt cheap for years, allowing money to be spent elsewhere..