J.T. Realmuto

[Outlander]

Yeah the continued mentioning of Burnes as a prospect just isn't correct. He has proved he can pitch at the big league level and succeed. At the very least he is a high leverage reliever and still can be a starter. In my opinion he has more value than Hiura. So to say Brinson/Harrison = Hiura/Burnes doesn't add up to me.

[JosephC]

Yeah, feel like any deal for Realmuto begins with Hiura plus one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff & another back end top 10 guy.

 

Nottingham is more like the fourth piece in any package, not the second.

 

To play Marlin's GM, I'd likely go for a Realmuto for Hiura plus one of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta (Brewer's choice) plus one of Payton Henry/Trey Supak/Chad McClanahan (Brewer's choice). I'd probably end up with Hiura + Peralta + McClanahan and that would be pretty reasonable.

 

I think Hiura has greater than twice as much value as the next best Brewer prospect and that includes players that have less than 1 year of MLB service time. And I don't think it's at all a stretch to say that he could have more than four times as much value as players like Ray and Turang who the pipeline has as #2 and #3 on the Brewer's prospect list. I think it's really hard to put a package together that doesn't include him. eyeblack talks about maybe Burnes, it's possible but I'd probably need 3 more pieces and all those pieces would have to be of real quality (not Joe Gray or Jacob Nottingham....better than that).

[sveumrules]

Yeah the continued mentioning of Burnes as a prospect just isn't correct. He has proved he can pitch at the big league level and succeed. At the very least he is a high leverage reliever and still can be a starter. In my opinion he has more value than Hiura. So to say Brinson/Harrison = Hiura/Burnes doesn't add up to me.

 

Brinson prior to the trade had a 60 FV from Fangraphs & ranked #16 on their top 100 vs Hiura who is currently at 55 FV & ranked #22 on their prospect board.

 

Coming into the season Burnes was ranked between #69-80, Woodruff was on one list at #61 & missed the top 100 on the other two while Peralta has never made a top 100.

 

Of course all three have had success at the MLB level so their value has gone up since prospect season, which is why I believe their individual values are comparable to the same general range as Harrison & Diaz combined at the time they were dealt.

 

I agree that Brinson/Harrison doesn't add up to Hiura/Burnes. I'm saying that Brinson/Harrison/Diaz is about the same ballpark in value as Hiura/one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff.

[JosephC]

I'm super-high on Woodruff, but so far in his MLB career he's looked plus-plus as a reliever and well below average as a starter. Have think that would significantly affect how other teams view him on the trade market. I wouldn't say his value has dramatically increased or decreased since his prospect days.

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah the continued mentioning of Burnes as a prospect just isn't correct. He has proved he can pitch at the big league level and succeed. At the very least he is a high leverage reliever and still can be a starter. In my opinion he has more value than Hiura. So to say Brinson/Harrison = Hiura/Burnes doesn't add up to me.

 

Brinson prior to the trade had a 60 FV from Fangraphs & ranked #16 on their top 100 vs Hiura who is currently at 55 FV & ranked #22 on their prospect board.

 

Coming into the season Burnes was ranked between #69-80, Woodruff was on one list at #61 & missed the top 100 on the other two while Peralta has never made a top 100.

 

Of course all three have had success at the MLB level so their value has gone up since prospect season, which is why I believe their individual values are comparable to the same general range as Harrison & Diaz combined at the time they were dealt.

 

I agree that Brinson/Harrison doesn't add up to Hiura/Burnes. I'm saying that Brinson/Harrison/Diaz is about the same ballpark in value as Hiura/one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff.

 

I personally think Burnes is more valuable at this point than Hiura. Not a knock on Hiura, what Burnes has done at the MLB level though skyrockets his value. And if fangraphs puts their value as similar, they are just dumb. Yelich has been the better player at literally every stop and had 5 years of team control at the time of trade versus 2. Also while good prospects, Brinson and Harrison are very flawed prospects with massive upside but significant risk of actually sticking in the majors with the swing and miss issues. Hiura and any of those pitchers have a much higher floor than any of those guys with only slightly lower ceilings. All 4 of those guys might have more value at this point than Brinson. Burnes and Hiura for sure, Peralta and Woodruff are close. And all 4 are way ahead of Harrison/Diaz. Young, controllable, impact SP is the best value in baseball.

[splitterpfj]

I would imagine the Marlins would insist on Huira, and one of Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff in a Realmuto deal. Nottingham makes sense for Miami as well, but he's a, "why not?" in this deal, not part of the reason the Brewers win out.

 

I don't know this, but I would assume the Brewers would prefer to deal Peralta if they lose one of the three, and I don't believe they'd let go of Burnes. If I'm right, you're at Huira, Peralta and Nottingham for Realmuto - if there's a fourth player in there, it's an upside guy the Marlins think they can develop.

 

I don't like comparisons to the Yelich trade at all. It's easy to improperly value a catcher in either direction, because of position scarcity. You can give up more than the guy can actually deliver, because it fills a hole, and you can walk away from a great player, because you're trying to avoid that exact scenario.

 

One key point for me - the reason I believe someone else will wind up outbidding Milwaukee - the Brewers were trading for five seasons of Christian Yelich - they would be trading for two seasons of JT Realmuto - that's a huge difference. Yes, maybe the Brewers could sign him to an extension, but you can't assume that. For that reason, I would bet a team with a deeper system at this point, or a team with deeper pockets, will be willing to gamble more than the Brewers will.

 

I'd love to have Realmuto, but the bidding will be fierce, and there's a good amount of risk for the market size - if you go big, and he walks after two years, you have a problem. I don't see David Steams as the guy who makes that move.

[OldHeidelberg]

I would imagine the Marlins would insist on Huira, and one of Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff in a Realmuto deal. Nottingham makes sense for Miami as well, but he's a, "why not?" in this deal, not part of the reason the Brewers win out.

 

I don't know this, but I would assume the Brewers would prefer to deal Peralta if they lose one of the three, and I don't believe they'd let go of Burnes. If I'm right, you're at Huira, Peralta and Nottingham for Realmuto - if there's a fourth player in there, it's an upside guy the Marlins think they can develop.

 

I don't like comparisons to the Yelich trade at all. It's easy to improperly value a catcher in either direction, because of position scarcity. You can give up more than the guy can actually deliver, because it fills a hole, and you can walk away from a great player, because you're trying to avoid that exact scenario.

 

One key point for me - the reason I believe someone else will wind up outbidding Milwaukee - the Brewers were trading for five seasons of Christian Yelich - they would be trading for two seasons of JT Realmuto - that's a huge difference. Yes, maybe the Brewers could sign him to an extension, but you can't assume that. For that reason, I would bet a team with a deeper system at this point, or a team with deeper pockets, will be willing to gamble more than the Brewers will.

 

I'd love to have Realmuto, but the bidding will be fierce, and there's a good amount of risk for the market size - if you go big, and he walks after two years, you have a problem. I don't see David Steams as the guy who makes that move.

 

I think giving up Peralta as the second key player to get the deal done is something many here may consider a worthy sacrifice but I can't get past 102 K's in 84 major league innings as a 22 year old. That's enough of a sample size for me to say he shouldn't get moved unless it is part of a package for a TOR starter. You are right Burnes should be untouchable and Woodruff is a flame throwing horse, again just a player I wouldn't give up unless it is for a pitcher. We have struggled for so long to develop our own pitchers I just can't stomach the thought of moving any of these guys for a 2 year rental catcher but I can see the other side of the argument as well. To me Hiura at the top of the trade should be enough to get it done with some other pieces, be it Lutz/Supak/Nottingham type prospects or maybe a mix of prospects with some major league guys like Davies or Santana. If someone tops that we move on.

[KeithStone53151]

The Marlins can insist on whatever they want, that's the scenario that led to them not trading him yet. The Nationals weren't willing to give up Robles or Soto at the deadline or last year. What has changed that a team would all of a sudden be willing to give up that caliber of a prospect? I would be surprised if the Brewers offered either of Hiura or Burnes.

 

You say you don't like the comparisons to the yelich trade, but yet you outline the primary reasons that yelich had more value than realmuto does now. The extra team control at a very team friendly cost, and improperly valuing the catcher position...which is scarce but much more prone to injury. And on top of that, you stick to the package others propose which is much more value than the Brewers gave up for Yelich. It makes no sense. It sounded like no other team really came close to us in trading for yelich. I get that Realmuto will be different, I just can't see a team offering up a similar package to what we gave up for Yelich. If they were willing, it would have happened last offseason or at the deadline. Offers aren't going to increase after a very average 2nd half and losing that extra half year of team control.

[clancyphile]

I'd love to have Realmuto, but the bidding will be fierce, and there's a good amount of risk for the market size - if you go big, and he walks after two years, you have a problem. I don't see David Steams as the guy who makes that move.

 

I think giving up Peralta as the second key player to get the deal done is something many here may consider a worthy sacrifice but I can't get past 102 K's in 84 major league innings as a 22 year old. That's enough of a sample size for me to say he shouldn't get moved unless it is part of a package for a TOR starter. You are right Burnes should be untouchable and Woodruff is a flame throwing horse, again just a player I wouldn't give up unless it is for a pitcher. We have struggled for so long to develop our own pitchers I just can't stomach the thought of moving any of these guys for a 2 year rental catcher but I can see the other side of the argument as well. To me Hiura at the top of the trade should be enough to get it done with some other pieces, be it Lutz/Supak/Nottingham type prospects or maybe a mix of prospects with some major league guys like Davies or Santana. If someone tops that we move on.

 

If the Brewers can't get it done with near-MLB ready pieces like Dubon and Nottingham packaged with Aguilar, then they ought to walk. I'd rather try other options, like bringing back Lucroy, going 4/$40 for Wilson Ramos, or picking up Mazieka via the Rule 5. The Brewers have a decent #1 catcher in Pina, who becomes an outstanding backup if they get a better one.

 

If a good #1 or #2 catcher emerges, the Crew can flip Nottingham for help elsewhere. But the Crew can walk.

[OldHeidelberg]

 

If the Brewers can't get it done with near-MLB ready pieces like Dubon and Nottingham packaged with Aguilar, then they ought to walk. I'd rather try other options, like bringing back Lucroy, going 4/$40 for Wilson Ramos, or picking up Mazieka via the Rule 5. The Brewers have a decent #1 catcher in Pina, who becomes an outstanding backup if they get a better one.

 

If a good #1 or #2 catcher emerges, the Crew can flip Nottingham for help elsewhere. But the Crew can walk.

 

I just don't see any way the Marlins give him up without a top 50 prospect or some sort of equivalent like one of our big 3 rookie pitchers, maybe Aguilar does it but I doubt it. I like Pina but the offense sunk us at the end and Realmuto checks a lot of boxes for our chances next season. But there are other ways to get it fixed without giving up something ridiculous like prospects #1, #3 and #5, those trades don't happen much anyway outside of an ace and I think Realmuto would already be traded if he had the value some are suggesting here. I do like the idea of a Ramos type free agent signing, not sure that is the best FA deal they can find but I don't understand why the Brewers are under some sort of salary cap for 2019, no reason they can't bump up to $150 million to make a run.

[reillymcshane]

I'm guessing Realmuto would cost Hiura, Peralta or Burnes, and a couple of smaller pieces - such as Nottingham and Marcos Diplan. It's not quite as costly of a deal as Yelich, but close.

[TURBO]

I hope Stearns remembers that Realmuto is only 2 years, and Yelich was 5.

 

All these posts that are saying what it would cost? If that is the case, I'd hold hard with Pina and Nottingham.

[markedman5]

I hope Stearns remembers that Realmuto is only 2 years, and Yelich was 5.

 

All these posts that are saying what it would cost? If that is the case, I'd hold hard with Pina and Nottingham.

 

Stearns knows........the headliners for Yelich were at positions of depth( Brinson and Harrison). We need Hiura to play soon and nobody is blocking him.......nobody knows that better then Stearns.

 

I would be fine if we could get him with Peralta as the headliner but I doubt that would be enough......so I'm confident we won't be getting him.

[Humans Need Water]

DRS says Pina is head and shoulders better than Realmuto defensively with Pina at 14 and 6 the past 2yrs and Realmuto at -13, -5 and -7 the past 3yrs. Pina has thrown out 38% and Realmuto 35% over that span. I don't know how DRS is for catchers as it seems difficult to put a number on this position given all aspects involved but take it for what it's worth as every other catcher I looked up (Posey, Molina, etc) all would be what you expect over their careers. Offensively, Pina has been a 265/320/725 hitter the past 2yrs so he's a middle of the road hitting catcher in MLB, which should put him around a Top 12 overall catcher. I don't think the focus should be improving over Pina. It should be improving over Kratz/Vogt/Bandy. Someone like Kurt Suzuki is a perfect fit right now. He's cheap, will only require a 1-2yr contract and has the 3rd highest wRC+ for catchers over the past 2yrs (tied with Realmuto) while in his platoon role. It also keeps Nottingham in AAA continuing to develop after his second half injuries while being outside of CS as well - there's no rush. Plus he'll be the 3rd catcher in the system so will see MLB time in 2019 regardless.

 

I think these proposals that start with Hiura then include 1 of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff as a second piece are crazy.

 

Hiura has more value than Brinson did at the time of his trade because his bat is plus-plus (70) and nobody questions it whereas Brinson was plus everything with a risky hit tool (50). Now that Hiura put the question marks surrounding his defense to rest he'll be where Brinson was in the rankings, or higher, but his hit tool is why he's more valuable as he still plays up the middle defensively. The bat always plays - nobody's an AS because they play great defense but can't hit well. It's why Hiura's already Top 5 in BP rankings and why Mayo just said his bat ranks directly behind Vlad Jr and that he wouldn't be shocked if he made a run for the starting job in spring.

 

Burnes I think has slightly more value than Hiura given his performance in MLB and the postseason this year, which means he has more value than Brinson at the time of his trade. Peralta/Woodruff, along with Burnes and for the same reasons just listed, are all *significantly* more valuable secondary pieces than Harrison and Diaz. Those dudes never played above A+ either at the time of the trade. Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff also aren't prospects anymore whereas everyone in the Yelich trade was still a prospect.

 

There's no way that Realmuto's return should mirror Yelich nor come very close to it. Yelich had 3yrs more control, has consistently outperformed him offensively and won a GG in LF and also played CF the full season before traded. I think it makes sense to have conversations with the Marlins about him but I'd start with Peralta or Woodruff then add other solid pieces. If they get outbid then so be it.

[Oxy]

I have no problems with Pina at all. I want 2 good catchers on the team so they can split time and keep each other fresh and not lose a beat for DL stints/rests when a guy is dinged up.

 

Ideally, one would be a lefty to make PH appearances easier and use their splits to our advantage when they split time, but that's not really necessary.

[sveumrules]

In the three years before he was traded Yelich had a 124 wRC+ & 12.1 WAR (28th in MLB, 8th among OF). The season immediately before he was traded Yelich was at 118 wRC+ & 4.6 WAR.

 

In the last three years Realmuto has posted a 115 wRC+ & 12.3 WAR (24th in MLB, 1st among catchers). Last season Realmuto was at a 126 wRC+ & 4.8 WAR.

 

Their performance is about as equal as it can get.

 

Yes, Yelich had more team control, but there is also a much greater supply of good outfielders. Realmuto has been very comparable to Yelich performance wise, but at a position with a much smaller supply of good players. Less supply typically results in greater demand, which is a big reason why Fan-graphs had Yelich & Realmuto at 22 & 24 on their trade value rankings that came out during the 2018 ASG.

[KeithStone53151]

I hope Stearns remembers that Realmuto is only 2 years, and Yelich was 5.

 

All these posts that are saying what it would cost? If that is the case, I'd hold hard with Pina and Nottingham.

 

I've been strongly against some of these offers, but I guess it's sorta fair to say maybe that's what it takes to get him... but then if it does we should run far far away.

[And That]

DRS says Pina is head and shoulders better than Realmuto defensively with Pina at 14 and 6 the past 2yrs and Realmuto at -13, -5 and -7 the past 3yrs.

I prefer DRS for most everything, but BPro seems to have catcher defense nailed down a little more tightly. At least from what I can gather from publicly available information.

 

Manny Pina didn’t play much in 2016 so with that caveat here is his FRAA for ‘16-‘18: -.8/1.4/7.0

 

And Realmuto: -.1/16.1/4.2

 

Realmuto has been better overall, but Pina was better in ‘18.

[adambr2]

I would just like to point out that, at the time we traded for Yelich, some people were equally dismayed at giving up what we gave up at the time, and we've got a lot different perspective now.

 

I think I'm in the camp of, if you can get it done without Hiura and Burnes, go for it. If not, pass. As I said I think Peralta+Ray+Turang+Nottingham is probably the top offer I'd make and I think it's a fairly competitive one if the market doesn't end up being there for the Marlins to land a Robles/Tucker type.

 

At the end of the day though, the Astros have all the leverage here in this market. They can dangle either of Tucker or Whitley out there and if they do that you pretty much just have to bow out and look at other options.

[Lathund]

I don't know how DRS is for catchers as it seems difficult to put a number on this position given all aspects involved but take it for what it's worth as every other catcher I looked up (Posey, Molina, etc) all would be what you expect over their careers.

 

Of the main defensive stats, I believe Baseball Prospectus with FRAA is the only one to also include pitch framing, so that's the one I tend to use most when looking at catcher defense as it's the most complete.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I hope Stearns remembers that Realmuto is only 2 years, and Yelich was 5.

 

All these posts that are saying what it would cost? If that is the case, I'd hold hard with Pina and Nottingham.

 

I've been strongly against some of these offers, but I guess it's sorta fair to say maybe that's what it takes to get him... but then if it does we should run far far away.

 

This team is a World Series contender for the next 3-4 years max. Some of those prospects may be contributors, but many won't. Can't hug 'em when a significant upgrade is on the table.

[KeithStone53151]

I hope Stearns remembers that Realmuto is only 2 years, and Yelich was 5.

 

All these posts that are saying what it would cost? If that is the case, I'd hold hard with Pina and Nottingham.

 

I've been strongly against some of these offers, but I guess it's sorta fair to say maybe that's what it takes to get him... but then if it does we should run far far away.

 

This team is a World Series contender for the next 3-4 years max. Some of those prospects may be contributors, but many won't. Can't hug 'em when a significant upgrade is on the table.

 

Normally I'd agree with that, but most are talking about trading 2 of hiura, burnes, peralta, woodruff. 3 of those 4 are already contributing and hiura is highly likely to hit the majors in 2019. We aren't talking about high end prospects in high a that are 2 years out, but contributors right now. Heck burnes might provide similar value over the next 2 seasons to what realmuto will provide, and that's just one guy and we'll still have 4 more years of control.

[Mr Southpaw]

Peralta, Nottingham, Gatewood, and a low level pitcher with high upside.

 

They get

1.a MLB ready arm

2.a catcher to replace JT

3.a power hitting almost ready 3b/1b

4. a flyer

 

If that is not enough, move on

[reillymcshane]

No matter what you think the trade value should be for Realmuto, I do agree that the Brewers should set a price and stick to it. I don't like when team's get obsessive about a player and end up overbidding on someone. I believe in having discipline in situations like this. The last thing we need is things like 'Stearns, put on your big boy pants and get this deal done' and stuff like that.

 

Milwaukee needs to be efficient and smart in the moves they make. That means setting your budget (in this case, assets) and sticking to it. It doesn't mean you can't be flexible - but you don't be foolish.

[markedman5]

Looks like we ruined any chance for anyone to get Realmuto at a reasonable price....https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1059840607504482304