J.T. Realmuto

[KeithStone53151]

If Stearns gave me a call, the first thing I'd tell him is that either Hiura or Hader would likely need to be part of the deal. Without one of those two guys I just couldn't see a package from the Brewers that would make sense from my end. If those two are excluded, then we are talking about 4 pretty major pieces (Burnes + Woodruff + Turang + Ray).

 

I'm sure that Miami would ask for that to begin with and I don't think we should do that, but I don't necessarily think we should just walk away after that ask, either. The market for Realmuto could be big, or maybe not. There are FA options available like Ramos and Grandal that a couple of potential suitors might look at first instead of Realmuto if they don't want to pay the prospect price. We know they were asking for a Robles quality prospect which is similar to Hiura in value, but no one was willing to give that in July or last year and I'm not sure why that will change now.

 

Thing is, regardless of what the Marlins feel Realmuto is worth, they are not in a very good position of leverage with him. Everyone knows he wants out, and they know he's not going to re-sign with them. So they have 2 years to get the best possible deal for him. No doubt, his peak value is right now. No matter what he does in 2019 for the most part, his value won't be higher next year with just 1 year of control remaining.

 

Hader...really? Come on man. I'm not a proponent of the whole "Stearns would hang up immediately"...but just no. Hader is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, possibly one of the best pitchers in baseball. It's like having Andrew Miller with 5 years of team control and 2 years of $550k contracts. The only way his name should even come up is if it's the Mets discussing Degrom/Thor...and even then he's not moving.

 

One thing many of you are missing with Realmuto is injury/performance risk. He's coming off a career year, in a catching depressed market, and at peak age. His trade value is probably about as high as it ever has been. I would personally argue it was higher at the deadline(when he had a 902 ops versus his full season 825 caused by a very mediocre 2nd half), but they missed that chance already. The only way he could increase his value is having a 900+ OPS type first half again. If he has a bad month in the first half, or gets hurt...his value would plummet. So no, it's not like they have all this leverage like they don't need to take the best offer. Not taking the best offer this offseason would be a dreadful decision for that franchise.

[KeithStone53151]

I'll add, that Burnes + Woodruff + Turang + Ray is a far better package than we gave up for Yelich. Yelich...the NL MVP this year. The guy who has been a far better prospect and far more valuable than Realmuto at every point in their respective careers. Also Yelich was under 5 years of team control at the time of trade versus 2 for Realmuto. I think most offers for Realmuto are out of touch with reality, this one takes the cake though.

[adambr2]

If Stearns gave me a call, the first thing I'd tell him is that either Hiura or Hader would likely need to be part of the deal. Without one of those two guys I just couldn't see a package from the Brewers that would make sense from my end. If those two are excluded, then we are talking about 4 pretty major pieces (Burnes + Woodruff + Turang + Ray).

 

I'm sure that Miami would ask for that to begin with and I don't think we should do that, but I don't necessarily think we should just walk away after that ask, either. The market for Realmuto could be big, or maybe not. There are FA options available like Ramos and Grandal that a couple of potential suitors might look at first instead of Realmuto if they don't want to pay the prospect price. We know they were asking for a Robles quality prospect which is similar to Hiura in value, but no one was willing to give that in July or last year and I'm not sure why that will change now.

 

Thing is, regardless of what the Marlins feel Realmuto is worth, they are not in a very good position of leverage with him. Everyone knows he wants out, and they know he's not going to re-sign with them. So they have 2 years to get the best possible deal for him. No doubt, his peak value is right now. No matter what he does in 2019 for the most part, his value won't be higher next year with just 1 year of control remaining.

 

Hader...really? Come on man. I'm not a proponent of the whole "Stearns would hang up immediately"...but just no. Hader is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, possibly one of the best pitchers in baseball. It's like having Andrew Miller with 5 years of team control and 2 years of $550k contracts. The only way his name should even come up is if it's the Mets discussing Degrom/Thor...and even then he's not moving.

 

One thing many of you are missing with Realmuto is injury/performance risk. He's coming off a career year, in a catching depressed market, and at peak age. His trade value is probably about as high as it ever has been. I would personally argue it was higher at the deadline(when he had a 902 ops versus his full season 825 caused by a very mediocre 2nd half), but they missed that chance already. The only way he could increase his value is having a 900+ OPS type first half again. If he has a bad month in the first half, or gets hurt...his value would plummet. So no, it's not like they have all this leverage like they don't need to take the best offer. Not taking the best offer this offseason would be a dreadful decision for that franchise.

 

Was all that addressed to me? Just confused because I agreed with about 95% of what you said.

[KeithStone53151]

Was all that addressed to me? Just confused because I agreed with about 95% of what you said.

 

Not really, if anything I kinda wanted to piggyback off your comments so I included it. It's not just the one poster that seems to want to offer the moon for 2 years of a catcher though. He's a good catcher, but he isn't yelich and his specific package was far better than the yelich package.

[OnaBadger58]

One thing many of you are missing with Realmuto is injury/performance risk. He's coming off a career year, in a catching depressed market, and at peak age.

 

Trading for a catcher will always have that injury risk involved with it. Realmuto is really athletic for the catcher position which I think will help him stay healthier than a typical catcher. As far as performance risk, he has been pretty consistent for the last three years. Last year was a career year, but it wasn't like a 2006 Bill Hall where the season was an outlier. I think Realmuto's price would've/should've been highest last offseason. IMO, the Marlins are stupid for not trading him last offseason, and they will be stupid if they don't trade him this offseason.

[clancyphile]

Knowing how Yelich improved after not having to play 50 percent of his games in Miami, I expect the Marlins will try to jack up the price for Realmuto.

 

The Brewers have something that few other teams can offer: A major-league ready replacement for Realmuto with a LOT of control in the form of Jacob Nottingham. The only catching prospect they have is Will Banfield (http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=mia), ranked #8 on their list, but not due in the majors until 2022.

 

Nottingham becomes a part of the deal - and one that is quite valuable. If the Crew adds Dubon to the deal, it gives Colorado an option at shortstop who could be a decent fit at Miami due to being more of a spray hitter.

 

The real question is who else the Marlins might want. I'd offer Aguilar, a first baseman who fills another need for them and who has four years of control. Maybe throw in Broxton for his outfield defense?

[Boomer5]

Knowing how Yelich improved after not having to play 50 percent of his games in Miami, I expect the Marlins will try to jack up the price for Realmuto.

 

The Brewers have something that few other teams can offer: A major-league ready replacement for Realmuto with a LOT of control in the form of Jacob Nottingham. The only catching prospect they have is Will Banfield (http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=mia), ranked #8 on their list, but not due in the majors until 2022.

 

Nottingham becomes a part of the deal - and one that is quite valuable. If the Crew adds Dubon to the deal, it gives Colorado an option at shortstop who could be a decent fit at Miami due to being more of a spray hitter.

 

The real question is who else the Marlins might want. I'd offer Aguilar, a first baseman who fills another need for them and who has four years of control. Maybe throw in Broxton for his outfield defense?

 

That would be the steal of the century.

[SRB]

The upside of Realmuto in Milwaukee is exciting, but I think some people are overvaluing him simply because of a weak catcher market. He's significantly worse than, say, peak Lucroy. Yes I would love to have him but I'm not emptying the farm. I guess it all depends on our internal valuation of Hiura (for example, I suspect our internal valuation of Brinson was lower than the outside consensus).

 

Grandal is worse but only costs money.

[clancyphile]

The upside of Realmuto in Milwaukee is exciting, but I think some people are overvaluing him simply because of a weak catcher market. He's significantly worse than, say, peak Lucroy. Yes I would love to have him but I'm not emptying the farm. I guess it all depends on our internal valuation of Hiura (for example, I suspect our internal valuation of Brinson was lower than the outside consensus).

 

Grandal is worse but only costs money.

 

The real question if a deal for Realmuto is a good one is if the Brewers can get him to extend for three years - roughly the same as Yelich.

 

If they can, then some package for Realmuto makes sense. If not, then the price can be seen as too high.

[RollieTime]

I have to agree that the price for Realmuto is going to be much higher than what Stearns will be willing to offer. There is no point in shortening our competitive window that quickly by needing to include at least two of Burnes, Peralta, and Hiura. There is no guarantee that Realmuto will sign here and even if he were to, it probably would not be wise to pay him anything close to what he will be asking. Look at the Cubs and how they were going to be a dominant force for years to come. They traded away the farm, overspent on guys, and went all in. Yes it did work for them, but their window is closing. It only takes a couple moves to mortgage the future and the Cubs did that. I see no reason to go all in for a two year window and then have a lack of high end talent coming up the pipeline to help replenish the roster or fill in for injuries.

 

If Burnes and/or Peralta were traded, what would our rotation look like if we had a couple guys pitching poorly and a couple others get hurt? I wouldn’t even want to know who we would be relying on to start for us. Tim Dillard could make an epic comeback... On second thought, maybe we should do it!

[clancyphile]

I have to agree that the price for Realmuto is going to be much higher than what Stearns will be willing to offer. There is no point in shortening our competitive window that quickly by needing to include at least two of Burnes, Peralta, and Hiura. There is no guarantee that Realmuto will sign here and even if he were to, it probably would not be wise to pay him anything close to what he will be asking. Look at the Cubs and how they were going to be a dominant force for years to come. They traded away the farm, overspent on guys, and went all in. Yes it did work for them, but their window is closing. It only takes a couple moves to mortgage the future and the Cubs did that. I see no reason to go all in for a two year window and then have a lack of high end talent coming up the pipeline to help replenish the roster or fill in for injuries.

 

If Burnes and/or Peralta were traded, what would our rotation look like if we had a couple guys pitching poorly and a couple others get hurt? I wouldn’t even want to know who we would be relying on to start for us. Tim Dillard could make an epic comeback... On second thought, maybe we should do it!

 

That's why the baseline of the Brewers package needs to be Aguilar and Nottingham. The Marlins get an All-Star first baseman, they get a young, controllable catcher. Two of their biggest needs are met. Being on a contender with a good friend may help the Crew extend Realmuto.

 

Give the Marlins an answer at first base and a ready-made replacement for Realmuto, and then Dubon and some secondary pieces will be as good. But a Thames rebound and the continued development of Erceg/Gatewood compensates.

[adambr2]

I have to agree that the price for Realmuto is going to be much higher than what Stearns will be willing to offer. There is no point in shortening our competitive window that quickly by needing to include at least two of Burnes, Peralta, and Hiura. There is no guarantee that Realmuto will sign here and even if he were to, it probably would not be wise to pay him anything close to what he will be asking. Look at the Cubs and how they were going to be a dominant force for years to come. They traded away the farm, overspent on guys, and went all in. Yes it did work for them, but their window is closing. It only takes a couple moves to mortgage the future and the Cubs did that. I see no reason to go all in for a two year window and then have a lack of high end talent coming up the pipeline to help replenish the roster or fill in for injuries.

 

If Burnes and/or Peralta were traded, what would our rotation look like if we had a couple guys pitching poorly and a couple others get hurt? I wouldn’t even want to know who we would be relying on to start for us. Tim Dillard could make an epic comeback... On second thought, maybe we should do it!

 

That's why the baseline of the Brewers package needs to be Aguilar and Nottingham. The Marlins get an All-Star first baseman, they get a young, controllable catcher. Two of their biggest needs are met. Being on a contender with a good friend may help the Crew extend Realmuto.

 

Give the Marlins an answer at first base and a ready-made replacement for Realmuto, and then Dubon and some secondary pieces will be as good. But a Thames rebound and the continued development of Erceg/Gatewood compensates.

 

Meeting needs means nothing to them. Ok maybe not nothing, but very little. They are way too early to be worried about that. They'll want quality, and what you're offering isn't nearly enough in that department.

[pacopete4]

The problem is Clancy, if no one really believes Aguilar is an all star type player, he loses value. Nottingham isn’t exactly a top prospect either. Both have some big warts to them and I’m guessing Miami would be looking for more than that for their prized possession. Could be wrong though but it feels like we’d have to give up one of our arms to be in the mix.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, feel like any deal for Realmuto begins with Hiura plus one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff & another back end top 10 guy.

 

Nottingham is more like the fourth piece in any package, not the second.

[pacopete4]

I wish we could dump Anderson, Davies, Pina and Thames for Realmuto. That’d be ideal but it probably isn’t what Miami is looking to do.

[Devinep]

I wish we could dump Anderson, Davies, Pina and Thames for Realmuto. That’d be ideal but it probably isn’t what Miami is looking to do.

 

No they wouldn’t. It’s be perfect if they just wanted all the Brewers unneeded surplus players but when I think about what I’d demand as Marlins GM, it'd be Hiura plus one of the top young pitchers

[MNBrew]

I wish we could dump Anderson, Davies, Pina and Thames for Realmuto. That’d be ideal but it probably isn’t what Miami is looking to do.

It's a different era and some criteria are viewed differently now than then, but that already is potentially still close to better than the 6 guys we got from AZ in return for Richie Sexson, possibly better overall if we throw a nugget in there.

 

That was Craig Counsell, Chad Moeller, Lyle Overbay, Junior Spivey, Chris Capuano, & Jorge de la Rosa. Cappy & de la Rosa had hardly seen the bigs at that point. At the time the deal was seen largely as a quantity-over-quality deal by Dean Taylor, but it did help fill a lot of spots on a needy team's roster at that point. Of course Overbay started fulfilling his potential his first run in MIL. Spivey, Counsell, & Moeller were better than what we had previously at their positions (or at least brought some improvement in their varied skill sets), though all saw their games' respective apexes elsewhere (earlier) in their careers. Capuano reached his ceiling with MIL and that was pretty good, although after his second Tommy John surgery he was never quite the same. DLR never came close to living up to the hype in MIL but obviously figured things out later in a long run for COL.

[brewcrewdue80]

Marlins dont jeed a catcher in return. They could just sign Ramos in FA. Or pick up the Brewer catcher that is waived with no use for.

1b, Off top of my head, I thought Miami had a guy named Justin Bour? Or is that a different team? My last year in Miami, I felt like the 1b was a solid, potential up and comer. Maybe Thames as a platoon as a throw in(like Castro)

 

I couldnt do it since the likely cost are people the ML team needs as much as they need Realmuto, if not more. We're not losing to other MLB teams at the Catcher position, almost all are bad. Reminds me of 1b situation back right before we signed Thames. I dont recall who we were clamoring for to get at 1b, probably just Braun moving there, but the overall production value are like 3-5names and 20-30 so-sos. Catcher? Its like 3names and rubbish.

SP, 2b are needs. Catcher we were adequate with whats out there.

[MNBrew]

Marlins dont jeed a catcher in return. They could just sign Ramos in FA. Or pick up the Brewer catcher that is waived with no use for.

1b, Off top of my head, I thought Miami had a guy named Justin Bour? Or is that a different team? My last year in Miami, I felt like the 1b was a solid, potential up and comer. Maybe Thames as a platoon as a throw in(like Castro)

 

I couldnt do it since the likely cost are people the ML team needs as much as they need Realmuto, if not more. We're not losing to other MLB teams at the Catcher position, almost all are bad. Reminds me of 1b situation back right before we signed Thames. I dont recall who we were clamoring for to get at 1b, probably just Braun moving there, but the overall production value are like 3-5names and 20-30 so-sos. Catcher? Its like 3names and rubbish.

SP, 2b are needs. Catcher we were adequate with whats out there.

Miami traded Justin Bour traded to the Phillies in August.

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah, feel like any deal for Realmuto begins with Hiura plus one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff & another back end top 10 guy.

 

Nottingham is more like the fourth piece in any package, not the second.

 

Again, this package is more than what we gave up for Yelich...therefore not even close to realistic.

[adambr2]

I'll add, that Burnes + Woodruff + Turang + Ray is a far better package than we gave up for Yelich. Yelich...the NL MVP this year. The guy who has been a far better prospect and far more valuable than Realmuto at every point in their respective careers. Also Yelich was under 5 years of team control at the time of trade versus 2 for Realmuto. I think most offers for Realmuto are out of touch with reality, this one takes the cake though.

 

Yelich being MVP this year has nothing to do with his comparative trade value of when we acquired him compared to Realmuto now. He was not perceived as an MVP candidate at the time. He was a 4 WAR type OF, well above average but not elite.

Obviously, that's different now.

 

Last year's trade market for Yelich also doesn't necessarily relate directly to Realmuto's now. Markets can vary greatly over time and sometimes even greatly from one position to another depending on demand for that position.

 

Personally, I think Realmuto probably fetches less than what Yelich did, but it's not as far off as you're making it out to be. Realmuto probably gets a big position premium but takes a hit on the 2 years of control versus 5 for Yelich.

 

They'll ask for Hiura for sure. Doesn't mean they'll get him and doesn't mean we can't get him without Hiura, but it's a totally reasonable ask for 2 reasonable cost years of a perennial 4 WAR catcher.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, feel like any deal for Realmuto begins with Hiura plus one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff & another back end top 10 guy.

 

Nottingham is more like the fourth piece in any package, not the second.

 

Again, this package is more than what we gave up for Yelich...therefore not even close to realistic.

 

Brinson was ranked between 18-27 at the time of trade (bout the same as Hiura), Harrison between 49-75 with Isan Diaz as a back end top 100 guy (same general range as the three Ps have been ranked) & Yamamoto as the depth piece.

 

Fangraphs had Realmuto at 24 on their 2018 trade value rankings & Yelich at 22...therefore just about the same.

[Boomer5]

Jesus and Nottingham are throw ins in a JTR trade. The guy is a near 5 WAR 27 year old catcher for goodness sake.

 

It would be Hiura and one of Burnes/Woodruff plus plus. I would deal Hiura but you can’t give up young battle tested MLB starters if you want to contend this year and next.

[Eye Black]

I don’t see any scenario where the Brewers could acquire Realmuto without including at least one of Hiura and Burnes. The problem with hoping he could be acquired without giving up Hiura is the other teams that could really use Realmuto to upgrade their lineups also have good prospects...

 

A’s - Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk, Sean Murphy

Angels - Jo Adell, Griffin Canning, Brandon Marsh

Astros - Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, Yordan Alvarez

Braves - Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint, Austin Riley, Cristian Pache, Luis Gohara

Diamondbacks - Jon Duplantier, Taylor Widener

Dodgers - Alex Verdugo, Keibert Ruiz, Dustin May, Gavin Lux

Mets - Peter Alonso, Andres Gimenez, Jarred Kelenic

Nationals - Victor Robles, Carter Kieboom

Phillies - Sixto Sanchez, Alec Bohm, Adonis Medina

Rays - Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, Brent Honeywell, Jesus Sanchez, Matthew Liberatore

Red Sox - Michael Chavis, Jay Groome

Rockies - Brendan Rodgers, Colton Welker, Peter Lambert

 

Both the Braves and Rays are in a great position to acquire Realmuto without sacrificing the entire top end of their farm system. Other teams with top 15-ish prospects (A’s - Luzardo; Angels - Adell; Astros - Tucker & Whitley; Nationals - Robles; Rockies - Rodgers) could make the move if they were willing trade their top end talent. With the amount of likely competition for Realmuto I don’t think the Brewers would be in the discussion very long if they ruled out Hiura, and especially not if they also ruled out Burnes.

[OldHeidelberg]

Yeah, feel like any deal for Realmuto begins with Hiura plus one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff & another back end top 10 guy.

 

Nottingham is more like the fourth piece in any package, not the second.

 

Again, this package is more than what we gave up for Yelich...therefore not even close to realistic.

 

Brinson was ranked between 18-27 at the time of trade (bout the same as Hiura), Harrison between 49-75 with Isan Diaz as a back end top 100 guy (same general range as the three Ps have been ranked) & Yamamoto as the depth piece.

 

Fangraphs had Realmuto at 24 on their 2018 trade value rankings & Yelich at 22...therefore just about the same.

 

If you go by the prospect ratings what you say makes sense but Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta aren't prospects anymore. They have had success in the major leagues, their value now is certainly more than Harrison/Diaz at this point last off season in my opinion. For comparison I think Hader's ratings had dropped a bit when he was called up last season but by the end of the season he had quite bit more value once he proved the K rate carried over and he could get ML players out.

 

I also can't help but to go back to what we got for a year and a half of Lucroy when discussing Realmuto. Plenty of talk about how tough it was to acquire catchers at his level but the return ended up less than we had hoped and it took months to trade him. Realmuto's price could drop as well if we are patient.