J.T. Realmuto

[KeithStone53151]

The Marlins have to be careful not to overplay their hand. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, who's left to potentially give them a king's ransom?

They can ask for whatever they want, they still have 2 full years of control of him past this year. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, they can just wait til the offseason when they can still ask for a king's ransom and more teams will be willing to shuffle their rosters to do it. As long as they don't wait til the trading deadline of his final year (*cough* Orioles), they're going to get a massive package for the guy.

 

Or Realmuto gets hurt, or he has a rough second half? Waiting is a gamble...look what happened with Archer. No way are the Brewers offering as much value now as they did in the offseason...

[coolhandluke121]

They can ask for whatever they want, they still have 2 full years of control of him past this year. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, they can just wait til the offseason when they can still ask for a king's ransom and more teams will be willing to shuffle their rosters to do it. As long as they don't wait til the trading deadline of his final year (*cough* Orioles), they're going to get a massive package for the guy.

 

That's historically true but I think the trade market could be affected by some of the same things that dramatically changed free agency this year - namely, teams valuing their controllable young prospects more than they used to. Catcher production is fairly volatile, too - not like relievers, but right up there with starting pitchers as the second-most volatile position.

 

Besides, I think Hiura + Peralta would be pretty close to a king's ransom for 2.33 years of a super-2 guy who's going to get big raises in arbitration.

[adambr2]

The Marlins have to be careful not to overplay their hand. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, who's left to potentially give them a king's ransom?

They can ask for whatever they want, they still have 2 full years of control of him past this year. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, they can just wait til the offseason when they can still ask for a king's ransom and more teams will be willing to shuffle their rosters to do it. As long as they don't wait til the trading deadline of his final year (*cough* Orioles), they're going to get a massive package for the guy.

 

Or Realmuto gets hurt, or he has a rough second half? Waiting is a gamble...look what happened with Archer. No way are the Brewers offering as much value now as they did in the offseason...

 

Why in the world would Realmuto be worth less now than back in March? He was simply a very good catcher then, now he's the best in the game. He's still under control for 3 pennant races. Losing him the first few months of this season doesn't nullify his breakout.

 

Realmuto is worth Hiura+. Or Robles+. Doesn't mean we'll pay it or that the Nationals will, but anyone who is offering the Marlins less now than they were in the offseason, including us or Washington, simply isn't going to get him. There are plenty of teams in the offseason who will make a strong offer for 2 years of Realmuto if they decide to wait.

[KeithStone53151]

Or Realmuto gets hurt, or he has a rough second half? Waiting is a gamble...look what happened with Archer. No way are the Brewers offering as much value now as they did in the offseason...

 

Why in the world would Realmuto be worth less now than back in March? He was simply a very good catcher then, now he's the best in the game. He's still under control for 3 pennant races. Losing him the first few months of this season doesn't nullify his breakout.

 

Realmuto is worth Hiura+. Or Robles+. Doesn't mean we'll pay it or that the Nationals will, but anyone who is offering the Marlins less now than they were in the offseason, including us or Washington, simply isn't going to get him. There are plenty of teams in the offseason who will make a strong offer for 2 years of Realmuto if they decide to wait.

 

I'm referring to Archer, no way is our offer for Archer now as much as it was in the offseason...given his struggles and injuries. Realmuto's value absolutely has gone up and is probably at peak. If he hits 700 OPS the rest of the way or suffers a serious injury, his value plummets.

[mattyo]

I'd pretty easily say yes to a Hiura, Peralta + lottery tickets trade for Realmuto. Imagine the impact of switching out Pina for Realmuto in our lineup. That bat goes a loooong, long way.

 

The problem is the Marlins will want more, and once we talk about adding a Burnes to that package, or even replacing Peralta with Burnes, it's just way too much for me. I just don't see a trade happening.

[brewerfan82]

That's all true, but I guess my point is that they don't *need* to take the best package they're offered now if it's not what they want. If they're offered a package that's equal to what they think they can get this offseason, then yes, they should probably avoid some risk and take it, but I wouldn't accept even that until the final minutes of the deadline tomorrow.

 

The problem is no one really knows what's being offered at this point. It's hard to hold it against them if they don't make a trade in the next 28 hours when you don't even know what they've turned down. They have all the leverage to say "we want player X and if you're not willing to include him, we're not going to accept something we don't feel good about and we'll hold onto our star player til the offseason". Especially if the Nats are the only real player for him right now, a team that's in limbo and possibly on the verge of rebuilding so they're going to be very hesitant to give up those top prospects, waiting til the offseason could definitely net them a better package than whatever they're being offered now.

[FVBrewerFan]

Marlins are in a position to dictate exactly what they want from the Brewers, Nationals, or anyone else. We can float our ideas all day long of what WE think is a fair trade, but it's meaningless.

 

Put yourself in their shoes. Wouldn't you say we want Hiura, Burnes, and Nottingham- period. No? Ok, we'll wait until the off-season when there will be even more teams interested in him. Sure, there's the injury risk- but a risk I'm sure they're wiling to take.

[tmwiese55]

I probably cap at Hiura, Peralta, Nottingham. Maybe a 4th low level flyer type too, but as far as names we actually know at this point I think that's probably as far as I go. And that's even tough to do with Hiura.

[adambr2]

Or Realmuto gets hurt, or he has a rough second half? Waiting is a gamble...look what happened with Archer. No way are the Brewers offering as much value now as they did in the offseason...

 

Why in the world would Realmuto be worth less now than back in March? He was simply a very good catcher then, now he's the best in the game. He's still under control for 3 pennant races. Losing him the first few months of this season doesn't nullify his breakout.

 

Realmuto is worth Hiura+. Or Robles+. Doesn't mean we'll pay it or that the Nationals will, but anyone who is offering the Marlins less now than they were in the offseason, including us or Washington, simply isn't going to get him. There are plenty of teams in the offseason who will make a strong offer for 2 years of Realmuto if they decide to wait.

 

I'm referring to Archer, no way is our offer for Archer now as much as it was in the offseason...given his struggles and injuries. Realmuto's value absolutely has gone up and is probably at peak. If he hits 700 OPS the rest of the way or suffers a serious injury, his value plummets.

 

Oh yeah...I've cooled a lot on Archer. Just not enough bang for the buck. You start to wonder about guys who constantly underperform their peripherals year after year.

[KeithStone53151]

Marlins are in a position to dictate exactly what they want from the Brewers, Nationals, or anyone else. We can float our ideas all day long of what WE think is a fair trade, but it's meaningless.

 

Put yourself in their shoes. Wouldn't you say we want Hiura, Burnes, and Nottingham- period. No? Ok, we'll wait until the off-season when there will be even more teams interested in him. Sure, there's the injury risk- but a risk I'm sure they're wiling to take.

 

Putting myself in their shoes, they absolutely need to either extend him or trade him. They'd be extending him at peak value, probably looking at Buster Posey money or close to it. Posey was extended at age 25 after his MVP season and got 8/160 with 3 years of arbitration bought out. You figure a Realmuto deal is probably close to $20m per right now over 5 or 6 years...with 2 years of arbitration bought out. If the Marlins want to and are able to do that, good for them. Otherwise, trading him now makes sense.

 

I generally disagree with this idea that so many more teams will be interested in the offseason. Teams generally don't get desperate in the offseason with no pressure to continue a postseason run. And rebuilding teams aren't interested in Realmuto now and won't be in November.

[pacopete4]

As much as I want it to happen, I can’t see it getting done.

[adambr2]

Marlins are in a position to dictate exactly what they want from the Brewers, Nationals, or anyone else. We can float our ideas all day long of what WE think is a fair trade, but it's meaningless.

 

Put yourself in their shoes. Wouldn't you say we want Hiura, Burnes, and Nottingham- period. No? Ok, we'll wait until the off-season when there will be even more teams interested in him. Sure, there's the injury risk- but a risk I'm sure they're wiling to take.

 

Putting myself in their shoes, they absolutely need to either extend him or trade him. They'd be extending him at peak value, probably looking at Buster Posey money or close to it. Posey was extended at age 25 after his MVP season and got 8/160 with 3 years of arbitration bought out. You figure a Realmuto deal is probably close to $20m per right now over 5 or 6 years...with 2 years of arbitration bought out. If the Marlins want to and are able to do that, good for them. Otherwise, trading him now makes sense.

 

I generally disagree with this idea that so many more teams will be interested in the offseason. Teams generally don't get desperate in the offseason with no pressure to continue a postseason run. And rebuilding teams aren't interested in Realmuto now and won't be in November.

 

No one thinks they're rebuilding in November. Okay maybe 5 teams or so do but the other 25 are going into the following season with the mindset that they at least have a chance as opposed to it being whittled down to 12-15 teams in July that still consider themselves contenders.

[Dadbauer]

Rosenthal reports that the Brewers are still seeking a pitcher and a catcher - wonder if Stearns continues to add more spare part/rental pieces using fringe and excess prospects, or if he couples the smaller moves with a big splash like Realmuto.

[KeithStone53151]

Marlins are in a position to dictate exactly what they want from the Brewers, Nationals, or anyone else. We can float our ideas all day long of what WE think is a fair trade, but it's meaningless.

 

Put yourself in their shoes. Wouldn't you say we want Hiura, Burnes, and Nottingham- period. No? Ok, we'll wait until the off-season when there will be even more teams interested in him. Sure, there's the injury risk- but a risk I'm sure they're wiling to take.

 

Putting myself in their shoes, they absolutely need to either extend him or trade him. They'd be extending him at peak value, probably looking at Buster Posey money or close to it. Posey was extended at age 25 after his MVP season and got 8/160 with 3 years of arbitration bought out. You figure a Realmuto deal is probably close to $20m per right now over 5 or 6 years...with 2 years of arbitration bought out. If the Marlins want to and are able to do that, good for them. Otherwise, trading him now makes sense.

 

I generally disagree with this idea that so many more teams will be interested in the offseason. Teams generally don't get desperate in the offseason with no pressure to continue a postseason run. And rebuilding teams aren't interested in Realmuto now and won't be in November.

 

No one thinks they're rebuilding in November. Okay maybe 5 teams or so do but the other 25 are going into the following season with the mindset that they at least have a chance as opposed to it being whittled down to 12-15 teams in July that still consider themselves contenders.

 

As recently as 3 years ago I would have completely agreed, but doing a Cubs/Astros style tanking has become a thing lately. The O's, Blue Jays, Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Rangers, Mets, Marlins, Padres, and maybe the Reds are not in a position to win all that soon. Sure the overall market may be bigger, but there are free agents that can be targeted...and generally there is no desperation in the offseason. Right now, there's an outside chance they get a desperation overpay from the Nats. Whatever they offer will probably be better than anything anyone else offers in November. It really depends on what the offer is, but if the Nats get to a point where Robles is included...even if they don't offer much for good secondary pieces...they probably should do it. Same with the Brewers and Hiura or a Peralta + Burnes led package.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Realmuto is a guy I’d overpay for. Having him for 3+ years yet during his prime. Could be a thing of beauty. Premium position where we currently have a grey hole. I’d say black hole but Kratz has shows a pulse lately. Should be an interesting 24 hours here!

[gebc1997]

How about this offer:

 

Nottingham

Woodruff

Ortiz

Erceg

Lutz

[And That]

How about this offer:

 

Nottingham

Woodruff

Ortiz

Erceg

Lutz

I honestly don't think you get Realmuto without giving up one of Hiura, Burnes, or Peralta.

 

Hiura/Woodruff/Ortiz/Nottingham might get it done and I think is a bit of an overpay, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't enough for the Marlins.

[superfly]

How about this offer:

 

Nottingham

Woodruff

Ortiz

Erceg

Lutz

I honestly don't think you get Realmuto without giving up one of Hiura, Burnes, or Peralta.

 

Hiura/Woodruff/Ortiz/Nottingham might get it done and I think is a bit of an overpay, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't enough for the Marlins.

 

Stearn's master plan...Shaw at 2B and Moustakas at 3B long term, trading Hiura for an ace.

[Lathund]

Realmuto is a guy I’d overpay for. Having him for 3+ years yet during his prime. Could be a thing of beauty. Premium position where we currently have a grey hole. I’d say black hole but Kratz has shows a pulse lately. Should be an interesting 24 hours here!

 

It's 2+ years, not 3. He'll be at little over 4 years service time come the end of this season. At 3 or especially 4 years I'd be a lot more interested. The way these trades works you pay a lot less for the 3rd or 4th year than you do the 1st and 2nd. Not that there is a similar catcher available with that kind of control of course, so there aren't many options. But I'd rather make no deal than a bad deal.

[FVBrewerFan]

How about this offer:

 

Nottingham

Woodruff

Ortiz

Erceg

Lutz

 

Add a couple of those names to Hiura and Burnes and they say yes to that deal.

[KeithStone53151]

How about this offer:

 

Nottingham

Woodruff

Ortiz

Erceg

Lutz

 

Add a couple of those names to Hiura and Burnes and they say yes to that deal.

 

If you were to add one of those big names, I think you have to subtract one or two of the above names at least. The idea of trading 7 good prospects including your top 2 for 2+ years of 1 player not named Mike Trout is pure insanity. I don't even think Dombrowski is that foolish.

[bill hAll Star]

How about this offer:

 

Nottingham

Woodruff

Ortiz

Erceg

Lutz

 

Add a couple of those names to Hiura and Burnes and they say yes to that deal.

 

If you were to add one of those big names, I think you have to subtract one or two of the above names at least. The idea of trading 7 good prospects including your top 2 for 2+ years of 1 player not named Mike Trout is pure insanity. I don't even think Dombrowski is that foolish.

 

I love that you keep using the GM of the large market team that is currently 74-33 as an example of foolishness.

[KeithStone53151]

If you were to add one of those big names, I think you have to subtract one or two of the above names at least. The idea of trading 7 good prospects including your top 2 for 2+ years of 1 player not named Mike Trout is pure insanity. I don't even think Dombrowski is that foolish.

 

I love that you keep using the GM of the large market team that is currently 74-33 as an example of foolishness.

 

He recently walked away from the Tigers, leaving that situation a disaster. They haven't been good since he left and won't be good for at least a couple years thanks to him. It's easy to hide some levels of foolishness behind a skyhigh payroll. And not that the Red Sox aren't a good team, but they play in the AL and specifically the AL east. It's kinda like the Patriots...sure they are a very good team but it really helps their record basically getting 6 free lay-up wins a year for 15 years.

[FVBrewerFan]

How about this offer:

 

Nottingham

Woodruff

Ortiz

Erceg

Lutz

 

Add a couple of those names to Hiura and Burnes and they say yes to that deal.

 

If you were to add one of those big names, I think you have to subtract one or two of the above names at least. The idea of trading 7 good prospects including your top 2 for 2+ years of 1 player not named Mike Trout is pure insanity. I don't even think Dombrowski is that foolish.

 

I said add A COUPLE of those names to Hiura and Burnes, not all of them ; )

[bill hAll Star]

If you were to add one of those big names, I think you have to subtract one or two of the above names at least. The idea of trading 7 good prospects including your top 2 for 2+ years of 1 player not named Mike Trout is pure insanity. I don't even think Dombrowski is that foolish.

 

I love that you keep using the GM of the large market team that is currently 74-33 as an example of foolishness.

 

He recently walked away from the Tigers, leaving that situation a disaster. They haven't been good since he left and won't be good for at least a couple years thanks to him. It's easy to hide some levels of foolishness behind a skyhigh payroll. And not that the Red Sox aren't a good team, but they play in the AL and specifically the AL east. It's kinda like the Patriots...sure they are a very good team but it really helps their record basically getting 6 free lay-up wins a year for 15 years.

 

He's made some really good moves for having a huge payroll. Plenty of questionable ones like the Miggy extension, but all of these GMs shift their strategy this way with a huge payroll.

 

The guy freakin' acquired Miguel Cabrera for a bag of magic beans (in hindsight), Max Scherzer for Granderson and change, and recently acquired Chris Sale (we'll see what Kopech and Moncada eventually turn into) and Sale is going to put up 25 WAR in 3 years.

 

Of course they were a disaster after he left. Mike Illitch died meaning payroll may be a bit lower and at a certain point, being a mid market with a big payroll, going to 2 WS, 2 LCSs, and another playoff series in a decade is pretty good.

 

Almost any GM has to be graded differently for a large market.