J.T. Realmuto

[adambr2]

Here's a guess as to what it would take to get Realmuto:

 

Hiura

Woodruff

Ortiz (alternative: Brett Phillips)

Payton Henry (alternative: Jacob Nottingham)

 

This package allows us to hold onto Burnes and Peralta. What I'm offering is similar in scope to the Yelich deal - but not quite as much. Realmuto only comes with 2.4 years of control, while Yelich had five years.

 

As for the Marlins, despite having Isan Diaz in the minors (who just moved up to AAA), I'm guessing they would be happy to have Hiura as a centerpiece of any deal, especially with Diaz's mediocre play.

 

Woodruff can slide into the rotation now. Ortiz is probably a year or so behind him. Outside of Sandy Alcantara, Miami lacks good pitching prospects in the upper minors, so these two guys fit right into their area of need.

 

The Marlins also lack any decent catching prospects, so Henry is a nice longer term asset. Jacob Nottingham would be an alternative here, especially if you need to sweeten the pot to get the deal done.

 

This is just a guess on my part. I might be over valuing Woodruff and Ortiz, but I think I'm okay on my assessments.

 

PS - I'm not necessarily advocating this type of deal. Just playing at what I think it would take to make this happen. 6+ years of Hiura is a tough, tough thing to surrender.

 

I make that deal every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

 

I would as well. I also don't think we can assume the Realmuto packsge should be lighter than Yelich based solely on control. We also need to account for the fact that Realmuto is one of the best, if not THE best player at his position -- not to mention a far more premium position than corner OF. Yelich is simply a good player at his position.

 

So even though Yelich came with far more control, I think the position premium puts them on pretty level ground as far as value. And 2.4 years, while you'd like more, is still substantial. 3 pennant races and no need to worry about catcher until 2021.

 

Ideally it would be nice if you traded for Realmuto to do a deal with him where you bought out his arbitration plus one or two free agency years, but I doubt he would go for that.

[TURBO]

3 pennant races and no need to worry about catcher until 2021.

 

But we would still have to worry about a 2B and at least one starting pitcher if this were to happen.

 

I'm not sure this kind of a trade puts us any more ahead of where we would be if we just hang onto Hiura, our 2B of the future, and Woodruff, who just really needs to be part of our rotation now!

 

Kind of like robbing Peter to pay Paul, or something like that.

 

[adambr2]

3 pennant races and no need to worry about catcher until 2021.

 

But we would still have to worry about a 2B and at least one starting pitcher if this were to happen.

 

I'm not sure this kind of a trade puts us any more ahead of where we would be if we just hang onto Hiura, our 2B of the future, and Woodruff, who just really needs to be part of our rotation now!

 

Kind of like robbing Peter to pay Paul, or something like that.

 

 

Well that's why if we did get Realmuto I'd really like to try to get Castro in it as well. Castro isn't great, but definitely above average and his salary should make his trade price pretty reasonable.

 

Starting pitching yes, but I guess I'm looking more to 2019 and 2020 with this with a "hope for the best" attitude about 2018.

 

That's why keeping Peralta and Burnes would be ideal to have both next year plus a healthy Jimmy Nelson. I think Medeiros could end up being a Josh Hader type as early as next year perhaps.

[Warning Track Power]

3 pennant races and no need to worry about catcher until 2021.

 

But we would still have to worry about a 2B and at least one starting pitcher if this were to happen.

 

I'm not sure this kind of a trade puts us any more ahead of where we would be if we just hang onto Hiura, our 2B of the future, and Woodruff, who just really needs to be part of our rotation now!

 

Kind of like robbing Peter to pay Paul, or something like that.

 

If you make that deal, you would have to follow up with a Dozier trade and, more than likely, try to re-sign him in the off-season. A future lineup with Realmuto and Dozier looks rather nice. Problem I have is there is little left in the system to trade for a TOR SP.

[anglotiger]

3 pennant races and no need to worry about catcher until 2021.

 

But we would still have to worry about a 2B and at least one starting pitcher if this were to happen.

 

I'm not sure this kind of a trade puts us any more ahead of where we would be if we just hang onto Hiura, our 2B of the future, and Woodruff, who just really needs to be part of our rotation now!

 

Kind of like robbing Peter to pay Paul, or something like that.

 

If you make that deal, you would have to follow up with a Dozier trade and, more than likely, try to re-sign him in the off-season. A future lineup with Realmuto and Dozier looks rather nice. Problem I have is there is little left in the system to trade for a TOR SP.

 

I think that the point of keeping Burnes and Peralta out of such trade discussions is because those who insist on keeping them (observation there, not judgement) feel that those pitchers could become TOR starters. Again, I'm not agreeing or disagreeing - that's just my interpretation of what I've been reading here over the past few weeks - please feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding...

[82brewcrew82]

I think that the point of keeping Burnes and Peralta out of such trade discussions is because those who insist on keeping them (observation there, not judgement) feel that those pitchers could become TOR starters. Again, I'm not agreeing or disagreeing - that's just my interpretation of what I've been reading here over the past few weeks - please feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding...

I don't necessarily think any one of those guys is an ace per say. I do think even mid rotation starters get paid an arm and a leg. So if you can stock y our rotation two through 5 with home grown, cost controlled pitching, you have an advantage and probably the means to afford an "ace" type of pitcher. If one of those guys takes a step forward (like Nelson did) and you get that ace, that is invaluable. Same goes for the bullpen.

 

The reason the Fielder years were a very short window was because they could never develop any pitching. They had gaping offensive holes because the resources they had were used to acquire pitching (be it prospects or money). We have to grow as much of our pitching as possible and when we get some that has a chance we can't be giving it away for rental players or use it as an overpay for other players.

[coolhandluke121]

I'd be fine with Peralta as the headliner in a deal for Realmuto. I get this really up-and-down vibe from him, and I don't think it's just inexperience; I think it's his repertoire. He reminds me of K-Rod after he left the Angels. Not much velocity but lots of movement and changing speeds. Getting cute, dancing around the strike zone a lot, getting guys to chase, imploding when his command falters... it's not a formula for consistent success, even though he'll have some spectacular stretches. K-Rod was a reliever so a great stretch or bad stretch of ~40 innings determined his entire season, whereas I think Peralta ends up being a high 3's e.r.a. guy with some months under 2 and some months over 5.

 

I don't think I'd trade Burnes or Hiura for Realmuto, but it depends on the other prospects obviously.

[JosephC]

Here's a guess as to what it would take to get Realmuto:

 

Hiura

Woodruff

Ortiz (alternative: Brett Phillips)

Payton Henry (alternative: Jacob Nottingham)

 

 

That's pretty close.

 

With the season Realmuto is having, I'd project him at right around 4.3 WAR per season through 2020. That would put his value at 103.735 million. He's going to get big, big arbiration raises so I'd guess he'll end up making about 21 million from now through the end of 2020. I'd put his surplus value in the 80-82 million range. If I'm the Marlins, I wouldn't consider selling him for anything less than 70 million.

 

I have the following surplus values on the player's mentioned:

-Hiura = 43.73 million (#26-#70 hitter)

-Woodruff = 14.66 million (between #75-#100 pitcher and top 10 organizational prospect)

-Ortiz = 11.45 million (top 10 organizational prospect)

-Henry = 4.01 million (between role player prospect and fringe prospect)

Total value = 73.85 million

 

No way the Brewer's get to Realmuto's value without including Hiura. If he's not in the deal, the deal doesn't work.

[adambr2]

Here's a guess as to what it would take to get Realmuto:

 

Hiura

Woodruff

Ortiz (alternative: Brett Phillips)

Payton Henry (alternative: Jacob Nottingham)

 

 

That's pretty close.

 

With the season Realmuto is having, I'd project him at right around 4.3 WAR per season through 2020. That would put his value at 103.735 million. He's going to get big, big arbiration raises so I'd guess he'll end up making about 21 million from now through the end of 2020. I'd put his surplus value in the 80-82 million range. If I'm the Marlins, I wouldn't consider selling him for anything less than 70 million.

 

I have the following surplus values on the player's mentioned:

-Hiura = 43.73 million (#26-#70 hitter)

-Woodruff = 14.66 million (between #75-#100 pitcher and top 10 organizational prospect)

-Ortiz = 11.45 million (top 10 organizational prospect)

-Henry = 4.01 million (between role player prospect and fringe prospect)

Total value = 73.85 million

 

No way the Brewer's get to Realmuto's value without including Hiura. If he's not in the deal, the deal doesn't work.

 

I totally agree. I don't even know why other headliners are being thrown out there. Peralta and Burnes are going to be non-starters for Realmuto and the Marlins have made that pretty clear with Washington on who they've asked for.

[shanedog19]

Here's a guess as to what it would take to get Realmuto:

 

Hiura

Woodruff

Ortiz (alternative: Brett Phillips)

Payton Henry (alternative: Jacob Nottingham)

 

 

That's pretty close.

 

With the season Realmuto is having, I'd project him at right around 4.3 WAR per season through 2020. That would put his value at 103.735 million. He's going to get big, big arbiration raises so I'd guess he'll end up making about 21 million from now through the end of 2020. I'd put his surplus value in the 80-82 million range. If I'm the Marlins, I wouldn't consider selling him for anything less than 70 million.

 

I have the following surplus values on the player's mentioned:

-Hiura = 43.73 million (#26-#70 hitter)

-Woodruff = 14.66 million (between #75-#100 pitcher and top 10 organizational prospect)

-Ortiz = 11.45 million (top 10 organizational prospect)

-Henry = 4.01 million (between role player prospect and fringe prospect)

Total value = 73.85 million

 

No way the Brewer's get to Realmuto's value without including Hiura. If he's not in the deal, the deal doesn't work.

 

Could Ray be substituted for Hiura? 2B is SUCH a need for the team right now, it would be really hard to part with Hiura knowing this.

[adambr2]

Not a chance, Ray has had a nice season but he isn't close to Hiura in surplus value.

 

This is why I had proposed Realmuto+Castro for Hiura+Ray+Ortiz+Gatewood+Bickford, to lessen the sting of losing Hiura.

[82brewcrew82]

Not a chance, Ray has had a nice season but he isn't close to Hiura in surplus value.

 

This is why I had proposed Realmuto+Castro for Hiura+Ray+Ortiz+Gatewood+Bickford, to lessen the sting of losing Hiura.

Which is why Realmuto won't be coming here. Hiura isn't moving unless its for controllable pitching.

[adambr2]

Not a chance, Ray has had a nice season but he isn't close to Hiura in surplus value.

 

This is why I had proposed Realmuto+Castro for Hiura+Ray+Ortiz+Gatewood+Bickford, to lessen the sting of losing Hiura.

Which is why Realmuto won't be coming here. Hiura isn't moving unless its for controllable pitching.

 

I wouldn't assume anything about what Stearns would or wouldn't do. Stearns is extremely value-oriented and I don't see him pigeonholing his assets to fill one particular weakness like that.

 

There were many who made that assumption about Brinson at this time last year. It would have certainly been met with a great deal of skepticism if I would have said last July that we would be trading Brinson and other top assets for an outfielder in 6 months.

[82brewcrew82]

Not a chance, Ray has had a nice season but he isn't close to Hiura in surplus value.

 

This is why I had proposed Realmuto+Castro for Hiura+Ray+Ortiz+Gatewood+Bickford, to lessen the sting of losing Hiura.

Which is why Realmuto won't be coming here. Hiura isn't moving unless its for controllable pitching.

 

I wouldn't assume anything about what Stearns would or wouldn't do. Stearns is extremely value-oriented and I don't see him pigeonholing his assets to fill one particular weakness like that.

 

There were many who made that assumption about Brinson at this time last year. It would have certainly been met with a great deal of skepticism if I would have said last July that we would be trading Brinson and other top assets for an outfielder in 6 months.

Let's just say that I'll believe Hiura gets traded for anything but a controllable arm when I see it happen.

[reillymcshane]

Here's a guess as to what it would take to get Realmuto:

 

Hiura

Woodruff

Ortiz (alternative: Brett Phillips)

Payton Henry (alternative: Jacob Nottingham)

 

 

That's pretty close.

 

With the season Realmuto is having, I'd project him at right around 4.3 WAR per season through 2020. That would put his value at 103.735 million. He's going to get big, big arbiration raises so I'd guess he'll end up making about 21 million from now through the end of 2020. I'd put his surplus value in the 80-82 million range. If I'm the Marlins, I wouldn't consider selling him for anything less than 70 million.

 

I have the following surplus values on the player's mentioned:

-Hiura = 43.73 million (#26-#70 hitter)

-Woodruff = 14.66 million (between #75-#100 pitcher and top 10 organizational prospect)

-Ortiz = 11.45 million (top 10 organizational prospect)

-Henry = 4.01 million (between role player prospect and fringe prospect)

Total value = 73.85 million

 

No way the Brewer's get to Realmuto's value without including Hiura. If he's not in the deal, the deal doesn't work.

JosephC, thanks for doing this. I was actually going to ask you to do your surplus value magic, so thanks.

 

I'm happy my proposal wasn't too crazy in any direction.

[Devinep]

Omar Navaez doesn’t have great defensive metrics but has been decent hitting (not for power though) and decent throwing out runners

[Roderick]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-deadline/c-281084458?partnerId=ed-12932326-1086859403

 

J.T. Realmuto: Nats not out yet

The Nationals' trade talks with the Marlins about their All-Star catcher could be going on right up until the Deadline.

 

The door is still open for a Realmuto deal between Washington and Miami, as reported by Heyman on Sunday. But the asking price appears to be at least the Nats' top two prospects -- outfielder Victor Robles (No. 5 overall, per MLB Pipeline) and infielder Carter Kieboom (No. 35 overall). The Nationals would consider trading at least one, per Heyman. But would they part with both?

 

 

So for you guys that can figure this out, would Hiura, Woodruff/Ortiz, Diplan/Supak and Nottingham be close to a Robles and Kieboom (not that the Nats have agreed to give that up) value-wise? If Peralta was switched in, would that be that much more than Woodruff/Ortiz?

 

Personally, I was thinking we are so left-handed now, I really want a righty stick. But Realmuto has actually been better against righties in 2016 and 2018. Obviously, he is is still better than Pina/Kratz whichever way we are going. But not a big split to help offset against Cubs/Dodgers starting pitching.

[JosephC]

If the Nationals were to offer Victor Robles, then the Brewers are likely outbid regardless of any minor league package they come up with. Milwaukee would then be forced to add Yelich or Hader into the deal to remain competitive IMO, so Robles effectively takes them out of the Realmuto bidding. If it's just Kieboom plus prospects, then Hiura plus prospects would enter into play and the Marlins would have to figure out which package they like more.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If the Nationals were to offer Victor Robles, then the Brewers are likely outbid regardless of any minor league package they come up with. Milwaukee would then be forced to add Yelich or Hader into the deal to remain competitive IMO, so Robles effectively takes them out of the Realmuto bidding. If it's just Kieboom plus prospects, then Hiura plus prospects would enter into play and the Marlins would have to figure out which package they like more.

 

Nationals are in a tough spot. They could either make a few "go for it" moves and hope they catch fire, or they could decide to sell and restock the system. They have a lot of ground to make up, though, and would look pretty bad if they trade a boatload for Realmuto, only to fall short this season and lose a bunch of guys in the offseason.

[YelichPosse]

I really want Realmuto. But he will be expensive. I also think if they went all in on Realmuto they also for sure get a starter then as well too. If you go THAT in, you go ALL in.

[reillymcshane]

We've talked about Realmuto for a while - and essentially he's going to cost as much as Yelich did. I put out there Hiura, Ortiz, Woodruff and Payton Henry. And that might not be enough - but I think it's in the ballpark. Jacob Nottingham would be an obvious give back as well.

 

Of course, the Marlins have to be willing to play along. They have a monopoly on all-star catchers on the market - and can extract maximum compensation. And a desperate team - like the Nationals may be - might be willing to pay a very high price.

[jjfanec]

While I am actually not want say lets trade away a lot of prospects I would be willing to make a big trade for Realmuto or a top of the rotation starter. The reason is I think this team is young enough to compete for a while. If you get a guy like Realmuto your only real weak spot is 2b and SS if Arcia doesnt develop. You have all star level players in Yelich, Cain, Realmuto, Aguilar (hopefully) all together for a few year, and you have solid players like Shaw, Braun, Thames and others here for a bit too. You also have young guys like Broxton, Ray, and Stokes available for OF depth and hopefully Erceg at 3b. Pitching wise you get Nelson and Davies back next year to go with Anderson, Chacin, Guerra, Burnes Or Woodruff (whichever one you dont trade). That is solid starting pitching depth to go with a great bullpen.

 

I think this team is set to make a run next year. Realmuto would put them right there with other teams.

[FVBrewerFan]

We've talked about Realmuto for a while - and essentially he's going to cost as much as Yelich did. I put out there Hiura, Ortiz, Woodruff and Payton Henry. And that might not be enough - but I think it's in the ballpark. Jacob Nottingham would be an obvious give back as well.

 

Of course, the Marlins have to be willing to play along. They have a monopoly on all-star catchers on the market - and can extract maximum compensation. And a desperate team - like the Nationals may be - might be willing to pay a very high price.

 

The price is Yelich+. Hiura, Burnes, Ortiz or Nottingham, lottery ticket. That's what it would take, or something very close to that.

[coolhandluke121]

The Marlins have to be careful not to overplay their hand. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, who's left to potentially give them a king's ransom?

 

I'd gladly do a deal centered on Hiura, but would not also include Burnes. I would consider adding Peralta if the Marlins sweeten the deal somehow, but I'm not interested in Castro and he doesn't make much sense now anyway. Dietrich makes no sense after the Moose trade either, and he isn't exactly a throw-in in the first place. Brian Anderson could finally replace Perez, but they're probably not trading guys that young. Don't think they have a starter who can help the Brewers, and the Brewers have plenty of good bullpen arms.

 

I think if it was just Hiura, Peralta, and a couple lotto tickets, I'd bite the bullet and do it. The NL is wide open, and the Brewers would have a great chance to have the best overall record in the league over the next 3 years. I usually prefer to err on the side of keeping prospects, but we're talking the best world series chance the Brewers have had since the early 80's IMO.

[brewerfan82]

The Marlins have to be careful not to overplay their hand. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, who's left to potentially give them a king's ransom?

They can ask for whatever they want, they still have 2 full years of control of him past this year. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, they can just wait til the offseason when they can still ask for a king's ransom and more teams will be willing to shuffle their rosters to do it. As long as they don't wait til the trading deadline of his final year (*cough* Orioles), they're going to get a massive package for the guy.