J.T. Realmuto

[jjfanec]

I have always assumed if the Brewers wanted Realmuto they would need to give up Huira or Burnes. Not sure how they could do it without one of them

[adambr2]

No, it's not enough. The Marlins have been very firm with the Nationals that to land Realmuto, they need to start with Robles or Soto. They won't move him otherwise and won't need to. The only prospect we have on that level is Hiura. Any discussion of trading for Realmuto needs to start with Keston.

 

I do think you could possibly get away without giving up either of Burnes or Peralta as long as you headlined a deal with Hiura. Yesterday I had suggested Realmuto+Castro for Hiura+Ray+Ortiz+Gatewood+Bickford.

 

A deal for Realmuto headlined by Lutz and Ortiz is borderline insulting to Miami. No way is it even close.

 

Yeah ... the Marlins can ask all they want for Robles or Soto, but that deal hasn't happened yet, so no one really has any idea if the Nats would even do it. With the way Soto has mashed at the MLB level as a 19-year-old, I don't think he is on the table for anyone.

 

Borderline insulting? Lutz is well on his way to being a top 100 prospect, if not top 50 at season's end. My goodness ... it seems like people here hate every single one of our prospects that aren't names Hiura, Burnes or Peralta. I'm just trying to find a way to for the team to improve the MLB roster without having to trade MLB assets or their sure-fire #1 prospect to do it.

 

I didn't say the Nats will do it. It doesn't matter what the Nats will do. It only matters what the Marlins will do in regard to Realmuto.

 

I like Lutz a lot. Just because I say he isn't going to be an acceptable centerpiece for Realmuto doesn't mean I "hate" him. But him being on his way to possibly being a top 100 prospect at the end of the season doesn't give him the necessary value needed to acquire Realmuto.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Brewers would need a better headlining prospect than either Lutz or Ortiz to land Realmuto.

 

Perhaps. But a top starting pitching prospect (and the team's #4 ranked guy according to MLB), and a very toolsy 19-year-old OF who has ripped apart A-ball pitching for the last month are not junk prospects. And I'm sure other teams know that as well.

[xisxisxis]

2+ years of cheap control is still worth a ton, they are well within their rights to ask for an elite prospect centerpiece for Realmuto and some of the proposals I've seen for him would just be a waste of both ours and the Marlins' time.

 

I misread the years left of team control and thought it was 1.4 not 2.4. In that context, yes he still does have value through at least this offseason as 2 years of full control is much better than 1. However, factoring in that time he probably is projected at 11-12 WAR over the next 2.4 years. This is his year 27 season so it could be his "career" year or he could still have improvement in his performance. If he isn't peaking he has a 1-2 WAR improvement cushion. Given Yelich value when acquired was about 20 WAR then you have to compare the values of each when evaluating the likely package. Realmuto may have a better value due to his position and the value of other players at that position vs. Yelich compared to average OF, but it's really stretching to say that Realmuto is way more valuable than Yelich. Realmuto will be arbitration eligible next season and be very costly for the Marlins and I image they will start discounting their demands as they have more interest in moving his salary. I wouldn't be surprised if most GMs are waiting for that point.

[adambr2]

2+ years of cheap control is still worth a ton, they are well within their rights to ask for an elite prospect centerpiece for Realmuto and some of the proposals I've seen for him would just be a waste of both ours and the Marlins' time.

 

I misread the years left of team control and thought it was 1.4 not 2.4. In that context, yes he still does have value through at least this offseason as 2 years of full control is much better than 1. However, factoring in that time he probably is projected at 11-12 WAR over the next 2.4 years. This is his year 27 season so it could be his "career" year or he could still have improvement in his performance. If he isn't peaking he has a 1-2 WAR improvement cushion. Given Yelich value when acquired was about 20 WAR then you have to compare the values of each when evaluating the likely package. Realmuto may have a better value due to his position and the value of other players at that position vs. Yelich compared to average OF, but it's really stretching to say that Realmuto is way more valuable than Yelich. Realmuto will be arbitration eligible next season and be very costly for the Marlins and I image they will start discounting their demands as they have more interest in moving his salary. I wouldn't be surprised if most GMs are waiting for that point.

 

 

https://www.fishstripes.com/2018/7/19/17590154/marlins-catcher-jt-realmuto-all-star-24-in-2018-fangraphs-trade-value-rankings

 

Well, according to Fangraphs, his value is almost exactly at what Yelich was, and I'd tend to agree. That's part of the reason I said the Hiura headliner was necessary and he compares really well to what Brinson was worth -- Hiura may be worth a bit more I think.

 

I would strongly disagree that salary is going to be any kind of factor in the Marlins moving Realmuto. Realmuto is making $2.9M this year. Yes, he figures to get some nice raises in arbitration, but they have unloaded plenty of salary and have more interest in acquiring talent at this point. They aren't discounting Realmuto to avoid his arbitration raises.

[xisxisxis]

https://www.fishstripes.com/2018/7/19/1 ... e-rankings

 

Well, according to Fangraphs, his value is almost exactly at what Yelich was, and I'd tend to agree. That's part of the reason I said the Hiura headliner was necessary and he compares really well to what Brinson was worth -- Hiura may be worth a bit more I think.

 

I have no problem with Fangraphs estimate as it pretty much is where I would peg it... I value Hiura more than Brinson so I would say Hiura is overpaying, depends on the additional prospects, but personally I would be looking for 2 better prospects overall than Brinson/Diaz (so less than Brinson and more than Diaz) and a better lottery ticket than Harrison as a package.

 

 

I would strongly disagree that salary is going to be any kind of factor in the Marlins moving Realmuto. Realmuto is making $2.9M this year. Yes, he figures to get some nice raises in arbitration, but they have unloaded plenty of salary and have more interest in acquiring talent at this point. They aren't discounting Realmuto to avoid his arbitration raises.

 

Based on what I've seen from the Marlins FO and the leaked memo, they are more interested in profit margin than overall payroll. JT won't make the team a contender in 2019, he won't put enough people in the seats to offset his arbitration salary, but trading him will generate profit and add prospects for future competitiveness. I believe there is good history from the Marlins that they will want to trade him next winter for the best package they can get. I doubt they hold onto him for 2019.

[paul253]

For the people saying my offer was too much:

 

I agreee it is a lot to give up. But this deal doesn’t get done without either Hiura or Burnes. We can’t tell them we want probably the best offensive catcher in baseball, a legitimate all star who still has two years of control after this year, but we refuse to give up our top prospects. Hiura is likely more valuable than Burnes so if you want to keep Hiura you have to sweeten the secondary pieces. Lutz and Gatewood are not headliners. Lutz is in A ball and I’d still be surprised if Gatewood ever turns into a regular major leaguer. Perhaps we can offer up Woodruff instead of Peralta or Grisham instead of Ray but they aren’t accepting a deal based around a bunch of average to slightly above average prospects.

[82brewcrew82]

For the people saying my offer was too much:

 

I agreee it is a lot to give up. But this deal doesn’t get done without either Hiura or Burnes. We can’t tell them we want probably the best offensive catcher in baseball, a legitimate all star who still has two years of control after this year, but we refuse to give up our top prospects. Hiura is likely more valuable than Burnes so if you want to keep Hiura you have to sweeten the secondary pieces. Lutz and Gatewood are not headliners. Lutz is in A ball and I’d still be surprised if Gatewood ever turns into a regular major leaguer. Perhaps we can offer up Woodruff instead of Peralta or Grisham instead of Ray but they aren’t accepting a deal based around a bunch of average to slightly above average prospects.

Then I think it's time to stop seriously considering Realmuto as a legitimate target. DS said himself that there are just some prospects that they are not going to part with. I'd guess Burnes and Hiura are chief among them. So if that's what it takes to get him and we aren't giving that up then he isn't coming here. And no, I don't think DS said that as a bargaining chip.

[paul253]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

For the people saying my offer was too much:

 

I agreee it is a lot to give up. But this deal doesn’t get done without either Hiura or Burnes. We can’t tell them we want probably the best offensive catcher in baseball, a legitimate all star who still has two years of control after this year, but we refuse to give up our top prospects. Hiura is likely more valuable than Burnes so if you want to keep Hiura you have to sweeten the secondary pieces. Lutz and Gatewood are not headliners. Lutz is in A ball and I’d still be surprised if Gatewood ever turns into a regular major leaguer. Perhaps we can offer up Woodruff instead of Peralta or Grisham instead of Ray but they aren’t accepting a deal based around a bunch of average to slightly above average prospects.

 

If Realmuto's trade value is similar to Yelich's, I think you are giving up too much. In the Yelich trade, Brinson was ranked #1, and was a MLB top 30-40 guy. Diaz was not a Top 100 guy at the time of the trade, but probably #7-8 in the Brewers system despite a down year. Harrison was not a Top 100, but was a fast mover due to a great 2017. He ranked in the mid-teens organizational wise according to MLB Pipeline. Yamamoto was basically one or two steps above a lottery ticket.

 

So if you are offering Hiura or Burnes as your centerpiece, you sure as heck better be decreasing the value of the secondary pieces. What about something like this:

 

Hiura (centerpiece, more value than Brinson)

Diplan (having a great year, perhaps a step below Diaz value wise)

Tyrone Taylor (poor man's Harrison equivalent)

 

The Padres gave up a ton of value for a prospect that I think likely ranks similar to Hiura just yesterday.

[brewmann04]

I could understand moving some Minor league bats but again I will be really against trading any of our Pitchers at this point. We seem to finally be developing some quality Arms (starters) and will be way weary of moving them.

[82brewcrew82]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

At the risk of answering a question with a question, does anyone really think there is singular missing link to this offense?

[superfly]

I think Realmuto should be off the table unless we open the pocketbook immediately on trade and are able to lock him up for about 4 years (total). That would get us to the age where we should let him walk, as well as the back end of Yelich and Cain's contracts. I don't see a point to trading such a package for a guy that will be here for only half of our window.

 

For that reason (extension and prospect value) I think we should be passing on it unless their demands come down. And no, I am far from a prospect hugger.

[xisxisxis]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

 

I am in the hold tight this year unless a deal too good to pass up comes up.

 

Next year:

 

2B - Huira is here; sign one of the 10+ FA vets as a backup plan (there should be a very good market for buyers given the number of players available).

 

C - target Wilson Ramos/Yasmani Grandal in FA, or bring up Nottingham and go with Pina/Nottingham.

 

SS - Arcia with backups waiting if Arcia can't hit still. Arcia's defense would be enough if we can get a bump from Huira and catcher.

 

LF/1B - rotate Aguilar/Thames/Braun with Braun the odd man out when Aguilar/Thames are healthy.

[paul253]

At the risk of answering a question with a question, does anyone really think there is singular missing link to this offense

 

Probably not. But that doesn’t change the fact that Realmuto likely improves the offense much more than Dozier does. So theoretically if you trade for Dozier you’d have to trade more prospects to get another player or two that would improve the offense as much as Realmuto would.

[82brewcrew82]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

 

I am in the hold tight this year unless a deal too good to pass up comes up.

 

Next year:

 

2B - Huira is here; sign one of the 10+ FA vets as a backup plan (there should be a very good market for buyers given the number of players available).

 

C - target Wilson Ramos/Yasmani Grandal in FA, or bring up Nottingham and go with Pina/Nottingham.

 

SS - Arcia with backups waiting if Arcia can't hit still. Arcia's defense would be enough if we can get a bump from Huira and catcher.

 

LF/1B - rotate Aguilar/Thames/Braun with Braun the odd man out when Aguilar/Thames are healthy.

I agree with that plan.

[82brewcrew82]

At the risk of answering a question with a question, does anyone really think there is singular missing link to this offense

 

Probably not. But that doesn’t change the fact that Realmuto likely improves the offense much more than Dozier does. So theoretically if you trade for Dozier you’d have to trade more prospects to get another player or two that would improve the offense as much as Realmuto would.

You are correct in a vaccum. Does he improve it more than Hiura playing second and a FA signing like Grandal at catcher plus still having your other assets to get pitching with to go along with Burnes in your rotation? I'm guessing no. Too many folks looking at this year as a make or break year.

[KeithStone53151]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

 

I am in the hold tight this year unless a deal too good to pass up comes up.

 

Next year:

 

2B - Huira is here; sign one of the 10+ FA vets as a backup plan (there should be a very good market for buyers given the number of players available).

 

C - target Wilson Ramos/Yasmani Grandal in FA, or bring up Nottingham and go with Pina/Nottingham.

 

SS - Arcia with backups waiting if Arcia can't hit still. Arcia's defense would be enough if we can get a bump from Huira and catcher.

 

LF/1B - rotate Aguilar/Thames/Braun with Braun the odd man out when Aguilar/Thames are healthy.

I agree with that plan.

 

Braun will/should play 120 games for the next 2 years if he doesn't have a significant injury. He's hit into some bad luck for parts of this year and the last month or 2 last year...but he's one of our best hitters. Until Jesus's breakout, he was our very best hitter...at this point I think Jesus might be better, but so many on this board wildly underestimate Braun's ability when healthy.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

 

I am in the hold tight this year unless a deal too good to pass up comes up.

 

Next year:

 

2B - Huira is here; sign one of the 10+ FA vets as a backup plan (there should be a very good market for buyers given the number of players available).

 

C - target Wilson Ramos/Yasmani Grandal in FA, or bring up Nottingham and go with Pina/Nottingham.

 

SS - Arcia with backups waiting if Arcia can't hit still. Arcia's defense would be enough if we can get a bump from Huira and catcher.

 

LF/1B - rotate Aguilar/Thames/Braun with Braun the odd man out when Aguilar/Thames are healthy.

I agree with that plan.

 

Braun will/should play 120 games for the next 2 years if he doesn't have a significant injury. He's hit into some bad luck for parts of this year and the last month or 2 last year...but he's one of our best hitters. Until Jesus's breakout, he was our very best hitter...at this point I think Jesus might be better, but so many on this board wildly underestimate Braun's ability when healthy.

 

Sure, when healthy. Is that ever going to happen again?

[bill hAll Star]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

 

I am in the hold tight this year unless a deal too good to pass up comes up.

 

Next year:

 

2B - Huira is here; sign one of the 10+ FA vets as a backup plan (there should be a very good market for buyers given the number of players available).

 

C - target Wilson Ramos/Yasmani Grandal in FA, or bring up Nottingham and go with Pina/Nottingham.

 

SS - Arcia with backups waiting if Arcia can't hit still. Arcia's defense would be enough if we can get a bump from Huira and catcher.

 

LF/1B - rotate Aguilar/Thames/Braun with Braun the odd man out when Aguilar/Thames are healthy.

 

I'm a fan of Nottingham down the line and the idea that if nothing else, he should be a low OBP/high power guy, but I am not sure if Nottingham is going to be much of an improvement on offense the rest of this year or next year over what we've gotten out of Pina, et al.

[82brewcrew82]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

 

I am in the hold tight this year unless a deal too good to pass up comes up.

 

Next year:

 

2B - Huira is here; sign one of the 10+ FA vets as a backup plan (there should be a very good market for buyers given the number of players available).

 

C - target Wilson Ramos/Yasmani Grandal in FA, or bring up Nottingham and go with Pina/Nottingham.

 

SS - Arcia with backups waiting if Arcia can't hit still. Arcia's defense would be enough if we can get a bump from Huira and catcher.

 

LF/1B - rotate Aguilar/Thames/Braun with Braun the odd man out when Aguilar/Thames are healthy.

 

I'm a fan of Nottingham down the line and the idea that if nothing else, he should be a low OBP/high power guy, but I am not sure if Nottingham is going to be much of an improvement on offense the rest of this year or next year over what we've gotten out of Pina, et al.

You have to play him at some point to find out.

[KeithStone53151]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

 

I am in the hold tight this year unless a deal too good to pass up comes up.

 

Next year:

 

2B - Huira is here; sign one of the 10+ FA vets as a backup plan (there should be a very good market for buyers given the number of players available).

 

C - target Wilson Ramos/Yasmani Grandal in FA, or bring up Nottingham and go with Pina/Nottingham.

 

SS - Arcia with backups waiting if Arcia can't hit still. Arcia's defense would be enough if we can get a bump from Huira and catcher.

 

LF/1B - rotate Aguilar/Thames/Braun with Braun the odd man out when Aguilar/Thames are healthy.

 

I'm a fan of Nottingham down the line and the idea that if nothing else, he should be a low OBP/high power guy, but I am not sure if Nottingham is going to be much of an improvement on offense the rest of this year or next year over what we've gotten out of Pina, et al.

 

He's much better all around than Kratz. We really could use 2017 Pina right about now though. I've also noticed Bandy is looking pretty good in AAA, we definitely need to get rid of Kratz immediately...whether it's for Realmuto or an internal option.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

 

I am in the hold tight this year unless a deal too good to pass up comes up.

 

Next year:

 

2B - Huira is here; sign one of the 10+ FA vets as a backup plan (there should be a very good market for buyers given the number of players available).

 

C - target Wilson Ramos/Yasmani Grandal in FA, or bring up Nottingham and go with Pina/Nottingham.

 

SS - Arcia with backups waiting if Arcia can't hit still. Arcia's defense would be enough if we can get a bump from Huira and catcher.

 

LF/1B - rotate Aguilar/Thames/Braun with Braun the odd man out when Aguilar/Thames are healthy.

I agree with that plan.

 

If I'm reading the tea leaves right, I don't really see that as an option. Stearns basically told Haudricourt yesterday that he sees the 2018 Brewers as a playoff team, and he was planning on finding ways to improve the team to get them there. That is pretty much the opposite of "hold tight" in my opinion. It doesn't necessarily mean he's going to make a bunch of blockbusters, either, but it was interesting hearing his thoughts on the team nonetheless.

 

Now, it could mean minor deals for rentals like Dozier, Tucker Barnhart and Tyson Ross, but that would seem like a bit of a letdown after being in the Machado sweepstakes up until the end. I mean, that's how it could go, but I would say there are better odds that they make a big move than not. I think that a big move is a matter of when, and for who, than a matter of if.

[paul253]

You are correct in a vaccum. Does he improve it more than Hiura playing second and a FA signing like Grandal at catcher plus still having your other assets to get pitching with to go along with Burnes in your rotation? I'm guessing no. Too many folks looking at this year as a make or break year

 

Except I’m not. The argument that we’re only looking at this year doesn’t apply when we are talking about getting a guy that will be here two additional years. Realmuto helps immediately this year but also helps next year, when, assuming my proposal is accepted, you also have Hiura and you can maybe add a reliever as opposed to paying Grandal. The rotation has plenty of options both for next year and down the road. I don’t like the idea of giving up Burnes but I’m also not convinced he’s in the rotation next year because we have too many other veteran options.

 

Last year we desperately needed pitching and we passed. This year we desperately need hitting. I hope we don’t pass again.

[The Beat Goes On]

So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link?

 

I am in the hold tight this year unless a deal too good to pass up comes up.

 

Next year:

 

2B - Huira is here; sign one of the 10+ FA vets as a backup plan (there should be a very good market for buyers given the number of players available).

 

C - target Wilson Ramos/Yasmani Grandal in FA, or bring up Nottingham and go with Pina/Nottingham.

 

SS - Arcia with backups waiting if Arcia can't hit still. Arcia's defense would be enough if we can get a bump from Huira and catcher.

 

LF/1B - rotate Aguilar/Thames/Braun with Braun the odd man out when Aguilar/Thames are healthy.

 

Pretty much this. To me this has the feeling of 2006/2007 rather than 2008. Next year we have Nelson back hopefully at 100% and, fingers crossed, performing somewhere between his 2017 numbers and career avg before that. We also hopefully have Burns and Peralta forcing their way into the Opening Day rotation. That combined with the above mentioned moves just seems to have the makings of a deeper and more well rounded team to roll with and a team, that on paper anyway, seems much closer to being one or two deadline moves away from a pennant.