J.T. Realmuto

[RollieTime]

The Nationals inquired about Realmuto in the offseason and the Marlins were interested in BOTH Victor Robles and Juan Soto. Getting Realmuto would require a haul larger than what the Brewers got for Lucroy, who was under control for only one and a half years.

 

If the Brewers were to look at trading for Realmuto, Hiura would need to be involved to even remain on the phone. Burnes or Peralta would need to be included as well. Plus a third piece that has high upside.

 

I think the Marlins would be looking at:

 

Brewers get: J.T. Realmuto

Marlins get: Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Tristen Lutz

 

I think it is fair for both sides, but I would not do this trade. Other moves need to be done to the roster before making a big trade such as this. There are too many other holes to go all in right now.

 

Bahahaha, between the Nationals and the Rays...someone should tell these front offices that drugs are bad for you. Realmuto is definitely more valuable than Lucroy was at the deadline, but the gap between the Lucroy deal and Robles/Soto...it might as well be the grand canyon. I wouldn't trade either one of those guys for Realmuto if I'm the Nationals.

 

As for this offer, just no. Hiura is not getting moved for Realmuto, I wouldn't make that trade straight up. I think Burnes or Peralta would be a good enough centerpiece, probably the best one they'd get. Nottingham would be likely to go back to the Marlins in any Realmuto deal.

 

I wouldn’t do the trade either, but you need to look at what a realistic trade would take. When Lucroy was traded, they got the number 16 prospect in Brinson, Ortiz, who was ranked 63rd, and Cordell. Jeffress was included in the trade, but Lucroy was definitely the core piece. Realmuto comes with an additional year of control though compared to Lucroy. Realmuto is arguably the top catcher in baseball and won’t be given up cheap.

 

I don’t find it unreasonable for the Brewers needing to give up Hiura, who is ranked 48th, but is most likely a top 20 now, Burnes, who is ranked 58th, and Lutz who is a few years away. Stearns could possibly squeeze a prospect back from the Marlins in this situation, but it would be a lottery ticket.

[pacopete4]

If adding Hiura is the only way it gets done, pass. That kid is gonna be a star and he’s going to be cheap. At second base? You can’t ask much more of the opportunity the Brewers have with this kid.

[KeithStone53151]

I wouldn’t do the trade either, but you need to look at what a realistic trade would take. When Lucroy was traded, they got the number 16 prospect in Brinson, Ortiz, who was ranked 63rd, and Cordell. Jeffress was included in the trade, but Lucroy was definitely the core piece. Realmuto comes with an additional year of control though compared to Lucroy. Realmuto is arguably the top catcher in baseball and won’t be given up cheap.

 

I don’t find it unreasonable for the Brewers needing to give up Hiura, who is ranked 48th, but is most likely a top 20 now, Burnes, who is ranked 58th, and Lutz who is a few years away. Stearns could possibly squeeze a prospect back from the Marlins in this situation, but it would be a lottery ticket.

 

Brinson ranked #21, not number #16. My understanding is the trade was basically Brinson for Lucroy and Ortiz for Jeffress...with Cordell thrown in as a sweetener. I get the Realmuto is better than Lucroy, but you are saying we need to give up a prospect better than Brinson, a prospect as good as Ortiz, and a young upside high pick OF for Realmuto? That's probably double what we paid specifically for Lucroy, Realmuto isn't twice as valuable as Lucroy..not even close.

 

Hiura is a much safer bet to be successful in the majors, with probably 95% of Brinson's ceiling. Brinson was also coming off injury and a down season at the time of trade while Hiura is healthy and on fire.

[tmwiese55]

I like Realmuto and would love to have him. But generally speaking I think he's getting a bit overrated or overhyped here. He's played 3 seasons in mlb with lines of this

 

259/290 with 10 HR

303/343 with 11 HR

278/332 with 17 HR (for comparison Pina was 279/327 with 9 HR and 751 OPS)

 

That's his track record, of course good but not some kind of Posey or prime Mauer level good or anything. I'd say Lucroy was a more proven and a better player at the time of trade. Of course Luc was a couple years older though so that balances. I'd love to have him but Huera and Burnes I think is too much. It just seems like when we were the traders we had to realize that we're not getting the mass hauls we expected and to get realistic but now that we're the buyers we're expected to pay top price for everyone. Granted, we did win most trades due to our guys flopping after we traded them but looking at time of trades as much as possible.

[FVBrewerFan]

I like Realmuto and would love to have him. But generally speaking I think he's getting a bit overrated or overhyped here. He's played 3 seasons in mlb with lines of this

 

259/290 with 10 HR

303/343 with 11 HR

278/332 with 17 HR (for comparison Pina was 279/327 with 9 HR and 751 OPS)

 

That's his track record, of course good but not some kind of Posey or prime Mauer level good or anything. I'd say Lucroy was a more proven and a better player at the time of trade. Of course Luc was a couple years older though so that balances. I'd love to have him but Huera and Burnes I think is too much. It just seems like when we were the traders we had to realize that we're not getting the mass hauls we expected and to get realistic but now that we're the buyers we're expected to pay top price for everyone. Granted, we did win most trades due to our guys flopping after we traded them but looking at time of trades as much as possible.

 

Your slash lines are a little confusing there, leaving off slugging and adding number of HRs. Add slugging and his OPS looks like this the past 3 seasons:

 

.771

.783

.892

 

Three years for Lucroy prior to the trade:

 

.837

.717

.841

 

Realmuto stacks up to Lucroy, is much younger, cheaper, and is under control longer.

 

It will take a lot to get him, and should. As I said previously, I wouldn't give up Hiura or Peralta in any trade, including this one. Any other package I would consider.

[JackNicholson1974]

The Lucroy trade didnt work out so well for Texas (and it wouldnt have worked out well for Cleveland either). Almost every team is a black hole at catcher. The Brewers should pass.

[tmwiese55]

I'd call him and Luc about the same level. Luc was more established and more of a track record but that's balanced by Realmuto being younger and controlled I think a year more. Remember Luc wasn't a rental as he had 1.5 years left too. Me, I'd say Luc at time of trade vs JT now I'd pick Luc as the better player to play a game that day, but I see either way and consider it a toss up. But the general talk here is putting him in a whole class above Luc like some kind of star. They're essentially the same level of player and I don't think many of use were talking about Luc like he was this star and getting this big package back. That's all I'm getting at, he's a good quality starter but not some superstar like Posey, MAuer, Piazza, etc. He was essentially the same level of player as Pina last year. I'd love to find a way to get him but the packages being thrown around here involving Huera and Burnes just seems much. Especially when comparing to what we got for controlled good players like Gomez (with a proven starter) and Luc (along with a proven closer). As said, we won those as our guys flopped and seemingly picked our prospects well but trying to just keep time of trade and prospects at the time in mind.

 

ETA: I noticed you included his current season in there at 892 which is only 50 games and over 100 points better than he's ever done. I'd expect a good correction down on that, but maybe he really wants out of MIA so he'll keep raking to make it happen (like being in a contract year haha). Luc had 3 years higher of an OPS than JT's current career high (4 if you include time of trade and the whole trade season).

[And That]

Almost every team is a black hole at catcher. The Brewers should pass.

To drill into this a little, I think it would be more accurate to say that outside of Realmuto, only good teams have catchers that would be legitimate upgrades at the moment.

 

Francisco Cervelli might be the only other good catcher on a mediocre team, depending on what you think of the Pirates. Wilson Ramos is fine and much less expensive in terms of trade cost, but hardly dynamic. Maybe Tucker Barnhart is an option for cheap-ish?

[coolhandluke121]

To drill into this a little, I think it would be more accurate to say that outside of Realmuto, only good teams have catchers that would be legitimate upgrades at the moment.

 

 

Salvador Perez.

 

Realmuto has far more trade value than Lucroy did. Luc already had an injury history before age 30 and played in a much more hitter-friendly park. Age and control are also bigger factor than you might realize, as Realmuto is just entering his prime with over 2.5 years of team control left, whereas Luc was already 30 with about 1.33 years left. Finally, J.T. is on a more impressive trajectory considering this is just the beginning of his likely best years:

 

Age JT:Luc (OPS+)

24yrs 92:70

25yrs 111:90

26yrs 110:132 (only 96 games for Luc)

27yrs 147:116

 

Realmuto is a legit blue-chip talent, whereas Luc was just a really good player in his while. I have much more confidence in Realmuto to consistently be a borderline superstar, whereas Luc always felt like a bit of a regression candidate even when he was playing very well.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

It’s interesting to me to see Hiura in many trade proposals on here. When I see him as our starting second baseman to end this year. Crushing AA pitching. Doesn’t need to prove anything more to me in the minors, even if he lacks some defensive ability/experience.

[coolhandluke121]

It’s interesting to me to see Hiura in many trade proposals on here. When I see him as our starting second baseman to end this year. Crushing AA pitching. Doesn’t need to prove anything more to me in the minors, even if he lacks some defensive ability/experience.

 

Defense matters a lot in the middle infield. There's a reason guys like Sogard and Perez have jobs. I mean, would the Brewers be better if they played Thames at 2b? Of course not. Obviously Hiura is not that bad, but if he can't throw, it's going to be a huge problem. I think it would be an incredible bargain to get Realmuto for Hiura and some lesser prospects, and it could get the Brewers a world series trophy.

 

I wouldn't include Burnes and would try really hard to keep Peralta, but would be tempted to do Hiura + Peralta for Realmuto if it was on the table.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I get having to give up one of Huira, Burnes, Peralta (basically our top 3) guys at this point. But these JT talks of giving up two of them plus more is too much for me.

 

FYI-I just went over a few recent box scores for Biloxi and he is playing 2B now as opposed to DH or something else. So that's a good sign regarding his arm health. I mean, if we're willing to have a significant downgrade of D at SS when we bring up Miller. Would it be crazy to do it with Hiura down the line as well, or maybe in place of doing it at SS (obviously more important at SS). Such as, give Hiura more time and maybe a few weeks at AAA. Send Arcia down for a bit and try to fix himself when you give Miller his run. but down the line this year maybe both Hiura/Arcia come up and you fix your SS D and upgrade your 2B O.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Brewers are much more likely to include OF and P prospects in any substantial trades before the deadline, because those are positions where there is organizational depth that will eventually force transactions to happen.

 

Hiura isn't going anywhere.

[OnaBadger58]

I wouldn't include Burnes and would try really hard to keep Peralta, but would be tempted to do Hiura + Peralta for Realmuto if it was on the table.

 

This seems like way too much for me. I'm not giving up Hiura unless a TOR SP is coming back in return. I'm also not trading our best SP prospect and best hitting prospect since Braun for Realmuto.

[And That]

To drill into this a little, I think it would be more accurate to say that outside of Realmuto, only good teams have catchers that would be legitimate upgrades at the moment.

 

Salvador Perez.

I guess I wouldn't consider him to be a huge upgrade. Doesn't get on base, consistently below average hitter. The delta between his defense and Pina's isn't big enough.

[JackNicholson1974]

I will just reiterate that I dont see the longterm upside to Realmuto - or any catcher really. They get hurt a lot, transition out of catcher and their bats dont play in the corner infield of OF positions. Call up Nottingham and give him a majority of the work to see if he is ready maybe. If we are trading the rest of our prospects, it better be for someone better than Realmuto.

[Dadbauer]

Nottingham coming up to struggle isn't what we should be banking on - a team in first place doesn't have the luxary of "seeing if a guy is ready maybe" at the major league level.

[Roderick]

Nottingham coming up to struggle isn't what we should be banking on - a team in first place doesn't have the luxary of "seeing if a guy is ready maybe" at the major league level.

 

I think the thought process is, how much worse can he be than how Pina is playing anyways?

 

On offense, I would assume .219 / .636 (Pina's stats for year) would be in line with the 2016-2017 Nottingham. How much of this years stats is CS and small sample size, versus having turned the corner on his offense?.....

 

It is hard to say how much of a dropoff you would get defensively, and not something I dismiss readily.

 

So if Kratz folds, and Nottingham comes up and shows competent defense, I don't know why he shouldn't get 40% of the games and Pina gets 60%.

[jackailius]

I'd be inclined to do Huira, 1 of Ortiz/Woodruff, Lopez, Nottingham and 1 of Phillips/Ray. I know Huira looks like a can't miss with the bat but I don't know how he will look out there at 2nd. I'd just asoon use him now to help behind the plate, let Villar finish out the year at 2nd and then look to add Dozier at 2nd next year and look to use short starts for our starters next year. The defense won't take a hit that way, as compared to going with Huira and we should have more offensive production to back an already steady, if not spectacular staff and likely have a deeper bullpen next year to keep with the 5 inning starts we have been seeing.

[tmwiese55]

I will just reiterate that I dont see the longterm upside to Realmuto - or any catcher really. They get hurt a lot, transition out of catcher and their bats dont play in the corner infield of OF positions. Call up Nottingham and give him a majority of the work to see if he is ready maybe. If we are trading the rest of our prospects, it better be for someone better than Realmuto.

 

Good point, explained much better than I was trying to say. Unless you're true superstar type the variance seems so tough at C. I just don't think we should have to give up as much as being thrown out here by some.

[Dadbauer]

Nottingham coming up to struggle isn't what we should be banking on - a team in first place doesn't have the luxary of "seeing if a guy is ready maybe" at the major league level.

 

I think the thought process is, how much worse can he be than how Pina is playing anyways?

 

On offense, I would assume .219 / .636 (Pina's stats for year) would be in line with the 2016-2017 Nottingham. How much of this years stats is CS and small sample size, versus having turned the corner on his offense?.....

 

It is hard to say how much of a dropoff you would get defensively, and not something I dismiss readily.

 

So if Kratz folds, and Nottingham comes up and shows competent defense, I don't know why he shouldn't get 40% of the games and Pina gets 60%.

 

I do agree that it can't be worse than Pina, but I'm also advocating we get Realmuto - I'm not happy with any of our in house options.

[tmwiese55]

Pina has had 3 good games in a row now. It's probably not realistic to expect him to finish the year near his last year numbers like 275/330. But just going from the 220/280ish he's been this year up to 250/310 isn't outside the realm of reality and is 'good enough' along with how good of defense he plays. Assuming Kratz is back to reality though I'd prefer not to have a black hole out there the other two days each week so I'd be all for bringing up Nottingham if Kratz's crash continues. My eye test on Kratz's D is not good, has thrown some guys out but the blocking looks bad.

[brewmann04]

I like to keep Freddie and Corbin with the crew. I also agree Hiura going no where.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I like to keep Freddie and Corbin with the crew. I also agree Hiura going no where.

 

Then who do you trade? To get any of the big guns, they are going to have to pay up. Not gonna get a stud pitcher, catcher or infielder without giving up some of our top prospects.

[pacopete4]

I like to keep Freddie and Corbin with the crew. I also agree Hiura going no where.

 

Then who do you trade? To get any of the big guns, they are going to have to pay up. Not gonna get a stud pitcher, catcher or infielder without giving up some of our top prospects.

 

Stay the course.