Gerrit Cole

[Fear The Chorizo]

Lots of rumors surrounding the Yankees and pirates with Cole, but the brewers also got some mentions about exploratory discussions. Trading for him would be costly, but if the pirates make him available he'd jump towards the top of my wish list should other teams not be willing to part with their best prospects. I think he could be had with a quantity type deal headlined by Brinson and Ortiz. Always sketchy trading within the division, but getting 3 years of pre-free agent Cole might be worth the risk of sending impact talent to pittsburgh...

[JosephC]

I'm not that high on Cole. Scott Boras is his agent so the Brewers would have zero chance of signing him to an extension. Over the last two years he's had a 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.81 FIP, 103 ERA+. He's a solid, quality starting pitching but not near top of the rotation quality and I'm guessing his price-tag would far exceed the two years of production the Brewers would get out of him. The Pirates would probably value him as a 3.7 WAR player and would be looking for 55 million in surplus value in exchange for Cole. Prospect return would likely exclude Brinson but include at least 2 back-end top 100 prospects. Maybe something like Cole for Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz, Freddy Peralta and Jake Gatewood.

[3and2Fastball]

Cole, Archer, Lance Lynn and Cobb are all good solid starting pitchers who, if healthy, will likely put up a 3.75 ERA and 110 or so ERA+ ... i.e. Pitchers who won't be Cy Young candidates but can help a team for sure

 

You just have to be very careful as to the return. I think it is likely that Woodruff, as just one example, can put up similar numbers....

[JohnBriggs12]

He'll be marketed as close to an ace, but his recent numbers don't justify it. He got hit hard on more than a few occasions last year.

[monty57]

Cole is in his second year of arby, so it would be two years of control, not three. I personally don't want to see the Brewers trading away good prospects for 2-year players, so I'd pass on Cole unless his price tag for some reason was a lot lower than I'd expect.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I feel like his "struggles" recently still correlate to a solid mid to upper tier rotation pitcher that has the stuff to project as a top of the rotation starter leading into his free agent year in 2020 - someone with some warts that could enable the Brewers to swoop in with a pile of good-not-great prospects and have both teams wind up viewing the trade favorably.

 

Yes, Cole would likely be walking a couple years later in free agency, but frankly there won't be teams looking to trade more talented arms under more team control than Cole without asking for more than the moon in return. His HR rate concerns me pitching in Miller Park, but if healthy he still has the stuff that made him a #1 overall pick. To me, he's the kind of pitcher to target acquiring via trade using the surplus prospects in the Brewer system who are approaching Rule V/40 man roster limbo.

[JosephC]

To me Cole is similar to Gallardo in that he's been considered the "ace" on a small market team and therefore is perceived as being better than he really is. Not claiming that as any sort of fact, just the impression that I have of him.

 

But on the other hand many pitchers fully mature at age 27 and have their peak years from 27-32. 2019 will be Cole's age 27 season and it wouldn't be surprising to see him have a breakthrough season. The guy has talent, no question about that.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd like taking on Cole as a risk/reward type of project, & be ok with flipping him or letting him walk after a couple seasons. The problem is that PIT will probably ask for value closer to the CY candidate he was prior to 2016.

 

Even with his injury issues, his velocity is still big. His HR/FB rate was through the roof last season, so much so that it's hard to think it was only down to bad luck. The other rate stats that stand out are that he gave up more fly balls, & a significant uptick in balls that batters pulled (which would jibe with more HRs surrendered).

 

If he could be had for a reasonable price, he's a guy I'd love to see us roll the dice on. Just seems like he has the stuff to work with, & needs mechanical tweaks. If you help him figure it out again, you've got a true TOR arm.

[Eye Black]

Jeff Passan tweets that the Yankees are getting closer to acquiring Cole...

 

@JeffPassan Sources: The New York Yankees are working on a deal to acquire starting pitcher Gerrit Cole from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sides are talking, and while a final package has not come together, there is confidence. "A matter of when rather than if," one source said.

@JeffPassan The Yankees at this point are the likeliest destination for Gerrit Cole, but if that falls through, sources believe Pittsburgh is highly motivated to trade him. Likelihood Cole moves is very strong.

[TooLiveBrew]

Cole is a lifelong Yankees fan (grew up in NJ iirc). I bet it happens. But if it doesn't, he still interests me if the price is palatable.

[MrTPlush]

Gerrit Cole’s value is living off that 2015 season.

 

Also I don’t think the Pirates give one ounce of care the Cole was a big Yankees fan.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gerrit Cole’s value is living off that 2015 season.

 

Also I don’t think the Pirates give one ounce of care the Cole was a big Yankees fan.

 

Exactly. Pirates likely have priced him as if he just put up those numbers. It wouldn't surprise me he suddenly finds it in NY though. Cole strikes me as a guy who loses focus at times and starts leaving pitches over the middle of the plate. Playing in NY in that atmosphere will help his focus.

[JosephC]

Apparently the Pirates are pushing hard for Gleyber Torres which isn't surprising but somewhat unrealistic. I guess the Pirates could then start throwing in prospects to equal up the value but why would a small market team do something like that? If the Pirates don't back down on their price then Cole will be in Pittsburgh in 2018.

 

If I was a Pirates fan I wouldn't mind seeing them shoot a bit lower and look to clean out half of the Yankees good pitching prospects. Maybe go for something like Gerrit Cole for RHP-Chance Adams, RHP-Luis Medina, RHP-Domingo Acevedo, OF-Billy McKinney. Adams is a solid top 100 prospect. Medina and Acevedo have rough edges but are both extreme high-upside arms. McKinney is down the list but I think he has a good chance of being a solid reserve corner outfielder. The Yankees keep all their top position players and according to Baseball America, they would only lose 1 of their top 4 pitching prospects in this deal. IMO a deal that really makes sense for both sides.