Cub sign reliever Steve Cishek

[StearnsFTW]

I'm surprised the Cubs aren't spending their money on starting pitching. They're rotation is not very good and Chatwood is not the answer. I expect them to win the NL Central, but I would have thought they'd be planning for the playoffs. Not a lot of prospects to add a SP via midseason trade.

 

They also signed Drew Smyly and are probably looking into another deal.

 

Smyly won't pitch in 2018 most likely.

[Brewer Fever]

Which is why I don't understand the militant like stance some here are taking towards signing one. You don't get a prize for winning with the cheapest players possible.

 

I don't see anyone taking a "militant" stance against signing a reliever. I see people not acting like the world is ending just because we haven't panicked and overpaid for one yet.

[pacopete4]

Which is why I don't understand the militant like stance some here are taking towards signing one. You don't get a prize for winning with the cheapest players possible.

 

I don't see anyone taking a "militant" stance against signing a reliever. I see people not acting like the world is ending just because we haven't panicked and overpaid for one yet.

 

I keep seeing this from a lot of people. Who says they are overpaid? The market establishes what a reliever is worth. Now, whether or not the Brewers want to pay that is another thing but calling them overpaid is not correct, at all.

[StearnsFTW]

he got the same amount of money as Swarzkyk, i would have rather have signed Chisek. another good signing by the cubs.

 

The Cubs have signed two very risky bullpen arms. I'm a little surprised by who they've gone after. There isn't really a guy in that bullpen that is rock-solid by any stretch. That bullpen could be either very good or very bad.

 

I liked the Chatwood signing for them though.

 

Why is cishek risky? Guys had 7 years without 1 over 3.6. 60 ip on average career era at 2.73. Dudes one of the more stable mid level rhps on the market. This is one of the guys i REALLY wanted. At swarzak price that's a good addition. I'd rather believe he'll repeat his success an 8 and 9th time than swarzak not regress his a 2nd time.

 

Id rather the cubs swing big at the best available than eat up a fiscally responsible pen arm like this. Big market buying up all the guys in our market doesn't do us any favors.

 

Yeah, he's not as volatile as I had remembered. He was not very good in 14-15, but his last 2 years have been pretty darn good. I think I was just going off memory. I knew he was having trouble with walks for a while there, but that doesn't appear to have been the case the last 2 years.

 

Better signing than I originally gave credit for.

[coolhandluke121]

There's a concept in math called proof by "reduction to absurdity". You begin by assuming the thing you want to prove is false and show that this assumption must necessarily lead to nonsensical conclusions that are logical impossibilities, thereby proving it can't possibly be false.

 

This is not as airtight as Logic, but if your plans for the team lead you to think the Brewers should be participating more in this free agent bullpen market, you've basically reduced your plan to absurdity. Some of these teams are rationalizing bad long-term practices and I think they will regret it. The Brewers are sticking to the best principles and they're going to be glad they did. I was hoping the market would be more favorable, but the best thing the Brewers could do this offseason is just drive up the price on guys like Swarzak and whomever else they tried to sign. Kudos to Grandmaster Stearns and his team.

[pacopete4]

There's a concept in math called proof by "reduction to absurdity". You begin by assuming the thing you want to prove is false and show that this assumption must necessarily lead to nonsensical conclusions that are logical impossibilities, thereby proving it can't possibly be false.

 

This is not as airtight as Logic, but if your plans for the team lead you to think the Brewers should be participating more in this free agent bullpen market, you've basically reduced your plan to absurdity. Some of these teams are rationalizing bad long-term practices and I think they will regret it. The Brewers are sticking to the best principles and they're going to be glad they did. I was hoping the market would be more favorable, but the best thing the Brewers could do this offseason is just drive up the price on guys like Swarzak and whomever else they tried to sign. Kudos to Grandmaster Stearns and his team.

 

Meh. Just because we are the poor team at the meetings, don't justify it as that is what other teams should be doing. Or that they will regret signing who they sign. That can happen at any dollar amount. I bet that Stearns might have really loved to have a decent bullpen last season when they kept losing games late. Heck, it might've even bumped them into the playoffs. Maybe we need a little history lesson but the Brewers still do not have a World Series to hang their hat on. Other teams do. They've figured it out before. The Brewers? Well, we know what they do.

[monty57]

I think it just says that the Brewers can't compete in a bidding war for the year's hottest commodity. They need to find market inefficiencies and spend their free agent dollars there, and they always have to keep a strong farm so they will always have inexpensive players on the roster to give them any hope of obtaining/retaining higher-priced talent.

 

Or, they can get the big market teams to agree to share all television revenue like they do in the NFL so no one has a monetary advantage. Since the big markets like having the advantage, and MLB likes the big markets having the advantage, that will never happen.

 

So, we have to play on an uneven playing field where we can't win by outbidding the high revenue teams.

[patrickgpe]

 

So, we have to play on an uneven playing field where we can't win by outbidding the high revenue teams.

 

There is something to this, but lets face it, the cubs are a more desirable free agency destination than Milwaukee right now. They went to the playoffs 3 straight seasons and wont a title 2 years ago. We haven't been to the playoffs since 2011. The brewers had a nice season last year but I don't think top free agents are going to be breaking down the downsteps to come here quite yet.

[homer]

I wonder if AAA bullpen guys that have yet to break into the bigs is the market inefficiency. Get them cheap, flip them after a few years for a ton of value.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Meh. Just because we are the poor team at the meetings, don't justify it as that is what other teams should be doing. Or that they will regret signing who they sign. That can happen at any dollar amount. I bet that Stearns might have really loved to have a decent bullpen last season when they kept losing games late. Heck, it might've even bumped them into the playoffs. Maybe we need a little history lesson but the Brewers still do not have a World Series to hang their hat on. Other teams do. They've figured it out before. The Brewers? Well, we know what they do.

 

That's not really my point. The point is not that I'd rather have a bad, cheap bullpen. It's that I think you're almost as likely to have a good bullpen with what the Brewers already have. This market is stupid. A lot of these guys won't do well and teams will be giving away better players in salary dumps this summer, paying some of their salary in the process.

[coolhandluke121]

I wonder if AAA bullpen guys that have yet to break into the bigs is the market inefficiency. Get them cheap, flip them after a few years for a ton of value.

 

Thornburg, Jeffress, and Knebel say hello. Williams, Houser, and Barnes are next. Maybe even Baker.

 

Much rather give those guys (and Wang) a shot than pay some of these guys what they received.

[3and2Fastball]

I wonder if AAA bullpen guys that have yet to break into the bigs is the market inefficiency. Get them cheap, flip them after a few years for a ton of value.

 

Strongly agree. Load up with a bunch of guys in the farm system that throw 98+. Thornburg alone brought back tremendous value.

[jerichoholicninja]

Which is why I don't understand the militant like stance some here are taking towards signing one. You don't get a prize for winning with the cheapest players possible.

 

I don't see anyone taking a "militant" stance against signing a reliever. I see people not acting like the world is ending just because we haven't panicked and overpaid for one yet.

 

I keep seeing this from a lot of people. Who says they are overpaid? The market establishes what a reliever is worth. Now, whether or not the Brewers want to pay that is another thing but calling them overpaid is not correct, at all.

 

Exactly, all these guys are getting roughly the same contract. None are being over valued or over paid, they're being paid exactly what the market thinks their worth. And $6-$10M a year is not that much money for a player today, especially when the majority of these deals are only 2 year deals, and especially when our current payroll couldn't get any lower with Braun as the only long term obligation. Personally, I'm not really upset that they didn't sign any of them, just surprised. We can EASILY afford any of those contracts but it's obvious Stearns doesn't want to afford them or no one wants to play in Milwaukee. Probably a combination of the two but mostly the former. Yes, RP are volatile. But after watching last year I don't know how anyone can say, "let's just go with the waiver wire, AAAA, minor league carousel."

[FVBrewerFan]

But after watching last year I don't know how anyone can say, "let's just go with the waiver wire, AAAA, minor league carousel."

 

You do know why, you just don't agree with it. And that's fine.

 

No WS crown this year if they sign a big name reliever or not. So stick to the plan. Develop the young arms in the pen, pick up a few flyers- which usually results in at least one really good BP arm, and live to fight another day.

[coolhandluke121]

But after watching last year I don't know how anyone can say, "let's just go with the waiver wire, AAAA, minor league carousel."

 

You do know why, you just don't agree with it. And that's fine.

 

No WS crown this year if they sign a big name reliever or not. So stick to the plan. Develop the young arms in the pen, pick up a few flyers- which usually results in at least one really good BP arm, and live to fight another day.

 

Exactly. Also, Houser and Williams aren't waiver wire material or quintessential AAAA guys. It's disingenuous to put the Brewers' young arms in the same category as guys like Goforth or Jungmann, and "minor league carousel" is inappropriately pejorative.

[homer]

I wonder if AAA bullpen guys that have yet to break into the bigs is the market inefficiency. Get them cheap, flip them after a few years for a ton of value.

 

Strongly agree. Load up with a bunch of guys in the farm system that throw 98+. Thornburg alone brought back tremendous value.

 

I don't know this for sure but it seems like you can still get unproven, high ceiling bullpen arms without giving up too much. It's like their value increases exponentially compared to starters and position players.

[Brewer Fever]

Exactly, all these guys are getting roughly the same contract. None are being over valued or over paid, they're being paid exactly what the market thinks their worth.

 

Let's break this down into simpler terms. The price for relief pitching is clearly inflated. Prices are irrefutably on the rise. None of the relievers on the market have signed with the Brewers. It appears as though the Brewers would have had to offer more to all signed RPs so far with perhaps Swarzak as the one exception. Thus yes, the Brewers would have had to overpay to get someone to sign on the dotted line.

 

Three other points to consider. One, all free agent relief pitchers who could reasonably be considered a positive addition to the pen have not yet been signed. Two, there will almost assuredly be RPs who have yet to sign, who will later sign at lower annual amounts, who will prove very valuable in 2018. And three, the offseason is not over yet.

[pacopete4]

Exactly, all these guys are getting roughly the same contract. None are being over valued or over paid, they're being paid exactly what the market thinks their worth.

 

Let's break this down into simpler terms.

 

This is all I will ever need to read from you. Be gon'

[monty57]

Exactly, all these guys are getting roughly the same contract. None are being over valued or over paid, they're being paid exactly what the market thinks their worth.

 

Let's break this down into simpler terms. The price for relief pitching is clearly inflated. Prices are irrefutably on the rise. None of the relievers on the market have signed with the Brewers. It appears as though the Brewers would have had to offer more to all signed RPs so far with perhaps Swarzak as the one exception. Thus yes, the Brewers would have had to overpay to get someone to sign on the dotted line.

 

Three other points to consider. One, all free agent relief pitchers who could reasonably be considered a positive addition to the pen have not yet been signed. Two, there will almost assuredly be RPs who have yet to sign, who will later sign at lower annual amounts, who will prove very valuable in 2018. And three, the offseason is not over yet.

 

Every team has a budget. The difference between the payroll and what's already committed is the amount they have to spend in the offseason (I call this their "free cash").

 

When prices for one commodity increase, teams paying the higher prices use up more of their free cash then expected, leaving less money available to spend elsewhere. No one is really paying for starting pitching or second basemen yet. If the Brewers are really lucky, maybe these will be areas where we can get a bit of a discount to expected prices.

[jerichoholicninja]

But after watching last year I don't know how anyone can say, "let's just go with the waiver wire, AAAA, minor league carousel."

 

You do know why, you just don't agree with it. And that's fine.

 

No WS crown this year if they sign a big name reliever or not. So stick to the plan. Develop the young arms in the pen, pick up a few flyers- which usually results in at least one really good BP arm, and live to fight another day.

 

Exactly. Also, Houser and Williams aren't waiver wire material or quintessential AAAA guys. It's disingenuous to put the Brewers' young arms in the same category as guys like Goforth or Jungmann, and "minor league carousel" is inappropriately pejorative.

 

I hate to sound like Briggs, but Houser and Williams have proven exactly nothing to expect them to be good MLB bullpen options in 2018. Maybe they will be, I could totally see that happening, but I think it's just as likely they are average or worse. Any of those free agent RP's that have been signed so far could be great or fail too. I think it's more likely they succeed seeing as they've had successful seasons in the past and many of them have been closers at some point. Swarzack aside, there aren't one year wonders getting signed.

 

I get that some people don't want to spend money. As Brewer fans we've been conditioned to believe that spending money on free agents is bad. I am one of those people who doesn't want us to big players in free agency too but I don't see signing any of these RP's for $6-$8M a season as anything more than a drop or two in the bucket. Our payroll is tiny with Braun as the only long term commitment. Pinching pennies over what is really a small amount just seems like trying to save money for the sake of being cheap. Would Pat Neshek alone win us the World Series in 2018? No. But I think it's a near certainty that acquiring him at the deadline last year gets us in the wild card game, maybe even wins the division. The whole "bullpens are unpredictable so just fill them with cheap guys" idea is being taken way too literally.

[TJseven7]

I wonder if AAA bullpen guys that have yet to break into the bigs is the market inefficiency. Get them cheap, flip them after a few years for a ton of value.

 

Strongly agree. Load up with a bunch of guys in the farm system that throw 98+. Thornburg alone brought back tremendous value.

 

I don't know this for sure but it seems like you can still get unproven, high ceiling bullpen arms without giving up too much. It's like their value increases exponentially compared to starters and position players.

 

Well this is where I'm actually getting to at this point. The "sure" bullpen upgrades are starting to wear thin. If we dont land a guy who should be penciled in as our set up man I really dont care to add any "cheap gambles." Reason being... swarzak. We got him for a song at the deadline. He was good, but no one would offer crap for him because he was a fa and his success was short lived. We could sign jj hoover watch him have a good year and that's all we get from it. We could watch him suck and waste whatever we pay him. At this point we should be after an 8th inning caliber add or hand that opportunity to houser and williams because if they are good for 2 years we either found something for the future or their value jumps exponentially and we can sell them for a boatload. There is a gigantic upside in controlled gambles vs fa 1 year plugs.

[coolhandluke121]

 

So, we have to play on an uneven playing field where we can't win by outbidding the high revenue teams.

 

There is something to this, but lets face it, the cubs are a more desirable free agency destination than Milwaukee right now.

 

I would add that they went through their rebuilding period, too. Just because they're rich doesn't mean that they didn't have to build the team up from within like just about everyone else. Same with Houston, LAD, NYY, and Boston. They rebuilt, too. They're just at the point in their window where it's time to spend, spend, and spend some more.

 

Yeah, they do have a big advantage because when it is time to spend, they can spend more, but it's not like they didn't go through a rebuilding period, too. The disparity is not nearly what it used to be. The main reason the Brewers aren't keeping up because they neglected their farm system for years. They fixed that, but that generation isn't ready to make an impact yet. They're mostly using the best possible stopgaps they can find, and that's why they're not going to compete next season. Throwing a bunch of money at mediocre relievers wouldn't fix that because they don't have the foundation to contend anyway. The Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and Red Sox do, and they mostly earned it. All those teams built from within and they aren't just on top because of their market size right now.

[LouisEly]

That's a fair point coolhand, but let's also remember the ungodly sums that those teams - particularly the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs - spent on international free agents, to the point where the Red Sox did it illegally and the others stretched the rules as far as they would go.

 

The Yankees made some shrewd moves (drafting Judge at #32 overall, signing Luis Severino for $225K), but when they signed Gary Sanchez for $3M in 2009 it was the highest signing bonus they had ever given to a position player, and the fourth highest they had ever given out to anyone.

 

I don't need to go into what the Red Sox did to buy Moncada and their international free agents.

[coolhandluke121]

That's a fair point coolhand, but let's also remember the ungodly sums that those teams - particularly the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs - spent on international free agents, to the point where the Red Sox did it illegally and the others stretched the rules as far as they would go.

 

The Yankees made some shrewd moves (drafting Judge at #32 overall, signing Luis Severino for $225K), but when they signed Gary Sanchez for $3M in 2009 it was the highest signing bonus they had ever given to a position player, and the fourth highest they had ever given out to anyone.

 

I don't need to go into what the Red Sox did to buy Moncada and their international free agents.

 

They clearly still have that advantage. It's just as clear that the advantage is not what it used to be. They used to just go and sign everyone, but with stricter PED rules, their free agents these days often just end up being burdens anyway. Revenue-sharing, pool money rules, etc have lopped off another huge chunk of their advantage. They can't just outspend to win anymore. Not even close. Any team big-market team with that attitude is just going to fail spectacularly in this day and age. They had to do some pretty commendable team-building work to succeed. They kind of deserve to be among the best teams right now, though the gap definitely shouldn't be as big as it is.

 

Small market teams will get their chances if they follow the blueprint. They won't get quite as many chances, their windows might not stay open as long, and they have lower odds of actually winning a playoff series... but they have enough of a chance to keep it interesting and that's a huge improvement.

[monty57]

I agree Luke. The luxury tax and revenue sharing have helped, and I expect the stiffer penalties applied going forward will make more teams stay under the "cap."

 

The problem for the Brewers is that the tax is set around 2x what the Brewers could hope to put out there for max payroll. Hopefully, as the Brewers continue to do things to build and maintain a strong fanbase their TV deal will go up, allowing them to get into the next ring, where they're at something like a 25% disadvantage instead of 50%.

 

It's kind of sad that the Brewers need to hem-and-haw over $8M/year deals, but I'd rather see them stay disciplined and not overpay for players just because they have some extra money to spend today. That's a bad habit, so while I want to see some moves, I want them to be "according to plan" with what Stearns and Attanasio have drawn up. Over the long haul, that is what is going to get us where we want to be.

 

We still have a lot of offseason to go, but honestly I'm impressed that Stearns has shown so much willpower. It would be really easy to cave in and just spend the money.