Anyone else losing their patience?

[82brewcrew82]

How are we defining great? The only thing that matters to me is how they stack up against current competition. Is the offense greater than Chicago's? Washington, Arizona, LA, Colorado, STL? I'm not at all convinced the pitching is superior to any of those teams. If the offense isn't either, what do we have then?

 

Same thing we're likely to do every year. Hope that results on the field surpass what's on paper. The Brewers are likely to never look like one of the best 1-2 teams in February/March. Now it's Cubs, Dodgers, Nats. Down the road, it may be the Cards, DBacks, Braves, Mets....who knows.

 

That's ok. If they can build a really good team and sustain it, then they will at least be in the hunt every year. Lots of things can happen then. Key injuries/bad performance by other contenders, better performance from our own players, and always the option of picking up firepower at the break.

 

Plus, the Brewers are still way too difficult to project. Yelich/Cain help projections on offense but you still have Arcia, Pina, and Villar/2B who are really difficult to project. Even guys like Shaw, Thames, Santana. In fact, do we even know what we'll get out of Braun?

 

Pitching is even tougher to project. Davies/Chacin you pretty much know what you're getting, after that it gets real tough. And the BP isn't any easier.

 

But they were never going to be as good as those other teams on paper this year, even if they do sign a Cobb or Arrietta.

That's depressing.

[LouisEly]

All in all, that is a pretty thin set of hopes and maybe's.

You also left out no Garza, Peralta, Milone, Feliz, Torres, Scahill, Espino, Marinez, and Jungmann, who combined for 350 IP last year. That is not insignificant.

[FVBrewerFan]

How are we defining great? The only thing that matters to me is how they stack up against current competition. Is the offense greater than Chicago's? Washington, Arizona, LA, Colorado, STL? I'm not at all convinced the pitching is superior to any of those teams. If the offense isn't either, what do we have then?

 

Same thing we're likely to do every year. Hope that results on the field surpass what's on paper. The Brewers are likely to never look like one of the best 1-2 teams in February/March. Now it's Cubs, Dodgers, Nats. Down the road, it may be the Cards, DBacks, Braves, Mets....who knows.

 

That's ok. If they can build a really good team and sustain it, then they will at least be in the hunt every year. Lots of things can happen then. Key injuries/bad performance by other contenders, better performance from our own players, and always the option of picking up firepower at the break.

 

Plus, the Brewers are still way too difficult to project. Yelich/Cain help projections on offense but you still have Arcia, Pina, and Villar/2B who are really difficult to project. Even guys like Shaw, Thames, Santana. In fact, do we even know what we'll get out of Braun?

 

Pitching is even tougher to project. Davies/Chacin you pretty much know what you're getting, after that it gets real tough. And the BP isn't any easier.

 

But they were never going to be as good as those other teams on paper this year, even if they do sign a Cobb or Arrietta.

That's depressing.

 

It is if you look at it that way. I see it more as dealing with reality. The big teams can take on massive salaries, and will always look better on paper. It's been that way for decades now so shouldn't really be a surprise.

 

But be optimistic! Think Royals and Indians in the recent past- it is possible to be good enough year in/ year out to make to and even win the WS.

[LouisEly]

Our offense can play with anybody. ANY regression in pitching from a bunch of guys that overachieved (by their career norms) though and we're going to be hurting. I'm not losing my patience yet, but if Arrieta or Cobb don't end up here absent a SP trade I will be. I love the Yelich add but what was the point if we weren't serious?

Not picking on you personally, but Arrieta stinks in Baltimore and goes to Chicago and becomes a star who people want to sign as a FA; however, Anderson goes from ARI to MIL, has a very good year and a half stretch, but "overachieved" and is due for regression.

 

Why are players on other teams who improve later in their career stars who we want, but when Brewers improve they overachieve and are due for regression?

[BigDaddy1974]

Our offense can play with anybody. ANY regression in pitching from a bunch of guys that overachieved (by their career norms) though and we're going to be hurting. I'm not losing my patience yet, but if Arrieta or Cobb don't end up here absent a SP trade I will be. I love the Yelich add but what was the point if we weren't serious?

Not picking on you personally, but Arrieta stinks in Baltimore and goes to Chicago and becomes a star who people want to sign as a FA; however, Anderson goes from ARI to MIL, has a very good year and a half stretch, but "overachieved" and is due for regression.

 

Why are players on other teams who improve later in their career stars who we want, but when Brewers improve they overachieve and are due for regression?

 

 

I agree with this, but some Brewer fans have a Chicken Little complex. The sky is going to fall and our team will eventually lose, because, well, we're the Brewers.

[jackailius]

I can't see them being 500 without a better addition to the rotation

 

There was a lot of crap pitching for us last year. Starting and pen. I can see the team being 500... cant see them being considered good though.

 

I can for the following reasons:

 

A full season of Josh Hader

 

Fewer strikeouts by the lineup

 

Better OF defense

 

Chacin is not an insignificant addition to the rotation

 

Junior Guerra is healthy and ready to be the Guerra of 2016

 

This is Arcia's year to fully blossom and be an All Star

 

Plenty of arm options ready in AAA

 

I agree with all of these but am a bit nervous on how defense in the OF will look if we have a OF from left to right in a given game of Braun Yelich Santana. Maybe the offensive contribution makes up for it but if you get that behind some of our pitching staff it could spell problems.

[StearnsFTW]

 

I can for the following reasons:

 

A full season of Josh Hader Limited impact

 

Fewer strikeouts by the lineup They will score runs but run prevention is part of th game too.

 

Better OF defense Maybe, depends on whether they clear up the roster and/or Braun can play first. If guys are forced to play out of position that cancels some of that benefit. If Braun is horrible at first, it basically nullifies the gains in the OF.

 

Chacin is not an insignificant addition to the rotation Nor is losing Nelson an insignificant loss. Chacin does not replace Nelson.

 

Junior Guerra is healthy and ready to be the Guerra of 2016 Pure speculation

This is Arcia's year to fully blossom and be an All Star Pure speculation

 

Plenty of arm options ready in AAA Pure speculation

All in all, that is a pretty thin set of hopes and maybe's.

 

I would say the truth is somewhere in the middle. For instance, it would be almost impossible for the defense to be worse. Yes, it's possible, but it's so unlikely that it's not even worth discussing. I also don't see Arcia becoming an All Star any time soon. Certainly not this year. Also, as you said, losing Nelson is huge.

[adambr2]

I still expect them to add to their rotation, but I'm wondering if they are just really really high on Corbin Burnes and expect him to be a regular part of the rotation by midseason. Maybe Stearns figures he's going to be as good as any FA starter out there and figures why drop a 9 figure contract on one. They might be figuring on adding both Nelson and Burnes in June.

 

The roster logjam is a little bit irritating to me, but I do have faith in Stearns that there's going to be a resolution before the season. I liked the Yelich trade and the Cain signing, but I liked Cain more under the premise that we were going to be able to get something fair for Santana. The current roster structure and everything we have to do to make it work -- Braun plays ...1st? Santana RF? Thames plays when...? Aguilar fits...nowhere? Broxton/Phillips in AAA? Just doesn't really make a lot of sense. As loaded as our bench and AAA depth looks, it just isn't very efficient to have productive starters in AAA or on the bench every day -- or traded for pennies on the dollar.

 

But like I said, I'm still confident Stearns will handle it.

[wallus]

If they go with Suter/Guerra as their 5th starter, they must have a lot of confidence in Woodruff and Burnes. I would still like an upgrade to one or more of 2nd, catcher, or RP though if we aren't spending on a SP.

[82brewcrew82]

Our offense can play with anybody. ANY regression in pitching from a bunch of guys that overachieved (by their career norms) though and we're going to be hurting. I'm not losing my patience yet, but if Arrieta or Cobb don't end up here absent a SP trade I will be. I love the Yelich add but what was the point if we weren't serious?

Not picking on you personally, but Arrieta stinks in Baltimore and goes to Chicago and becomes a star who people want to sign as a FA; however, Anderson goes from ARI to MIL, has a very good year and a half stretch, but "overachieved" and is due for regression.

 

Why are players on other teams who improve later in their career stars who we want, but when Brewers improve they overachieve and are due for regression?

 

 

I agree with this, but some Brewer fans have a Chicken Little complex. The sky is going to fall and our team will eventually lose, because, well, we're the Brewers.

To be fair, there isn't much evidence to the contrary.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Our offense can play with anybody. ANY regression in pitching from a bunch of guys that overachieved (by their career norms) though and we're going to be hurting. I'm not losing my patience yet, but if Arrieta or Cobb don't end up here absent a SP trade I will be. I love the Yelich add but what was the point if we weren't serious?

Not picking on you personally, but Arrieta stinks in Baltimore and goes to Chicago and becomes a star who people want to sign as a FA; however, Anderson goes from ARI to MIL, has a very good year and a half stretch, but "overachieved" and is due for regression.

 

Why are players on other teams who improve later in their career stars who we want, but when Brewers improve they overachieve and are due for regression?

Arrieta was 26/27 when he came to the Cubs and took off, Anderson was 29/30 when he did it here. Plus Arrieta lacks the injury history Anderson has/had and Arrieta always had premium stuff and the Orioles are notorious for screwing up their pitching prospects (they literally wouldn’t let Arrieta throw his cutter). Anderson’s stuff was always kinda average but last year he had the velo bump out of nowhere. Arrieta didn’t see the stuff uptick with the Cubs, the stuff/velo was already there it was just tinkered with/refined. Think they are a bit different scenarios and the Anderson regression worry is warranted, imo.

 

This isn’t a reason to go get Arrieta now, his stuff has fallen back down with age/innings. But there were more things to buy in to his rise being a bit more real or sustainable for the reasons I mentioned above and a lot of those same reasons aren’t there to necessarily believe in Anderson keeping it up.

[TJseven7]

Arrietas FB is one of the few that declined last year with the new measurement. It declined dramatically. His stuff is a lot of fb and cutter.

[brewcrewdue80]

How are we defining great? The only thing that matters to me is how they stack up against current competition. Is the offense greater than Chicago's? Washington, Arizona, LA, Colorado, STL? I'm not at all convinced the pitching is superior to any of those teams. If the offense isn't either, what do we have then?

 

Taking the above underline

Chicago-Bigger market greater resources-Full Rebuild

Washington-Bigger Market greater resources-Full Rebuild(b2b #1 picks-Strasburg/Harper)

Arizona-Bigger Market greater resources-#1 pick 3 drafts ago

LA-Elite Market Elite Resources- GOAT potential Pitcher on team drafted

Colorado-Bigger Market equal resouces-6 year stretch of losing seasons broken last year. Don't believe better than us

StL- Bigger Market Elite Resources(Free picks handed to without money restrictions) Don't believe better than us.

 

Milwaukee isn't playing on a fair field. Nor did they go through a full rebuild with #1 picks.

For Reference Braun is this team's highest salary commit. 41st in Baseball 19mil

LAD-Kershaw/Kemp 54.5mil

WAS-Only Harper is paid more at 21.625 but D.Murphy is 17.5 and Scherzer/Strasburg team friendly 15mil=~69mil

Ari-Grienke 31mil #1 1b in baseball drafted Ray=Anderson Godley=Davies

Col-Desmond 22mil Pitching is worse

StL-Molina/Wainwright 39.5mil Fowler/Carpenter 30mil Older questionable pitching no Lynn

Cubs-Darvish/Lester/Heyward-70mil

 

We're competing with these teams who are at an advantage as well to better draft positions where their players are further graduated than ours. Normal rebuilds at this stage would be 70 win projection and wondering how to tank for another top 5 draft pick. You must not have been here in '14/'15 when we all knew a rebuild was about to happen and 4-5years of such were coming. Stearns completely changed that. The team is above .500 and for this franchise, I'm excited about the future and not just focused on competing in 2018 to be WS better on paper to teams that should be embarrassed right now that Milwaukee is competing with them and it took them 100mil dollars(1Bil+ if youre the Dodgers) or tanking for 4 years.

[LouisEly]

Arrieta was 26/27 when he came to the Cubs and took off, Anderson was 29/30 when he did it here.

Arrieta was 28 at the start of his first full season with the Cubs, and Anderson was 28 in his first season with the Brewers.

[82brewcrew82]

We're competing with these teams who are at an advantage as well to better draft positions where their players are further graduated than ours. Normal rebuilds at this stage would be 70 win projection and wondering how to tank for another top 5 draft pick. You must not have been here in '14/'15 when we all knew a rebuild was about to happen and 4-5years of such were coming. Stearns completely changed that. The team is above .500 and for this franchise, I'm excited about the future and not just focused on competing in 2018 to be WS better on paper to teams that should be embarrassed right now that Milwaukee is competing with them and it took them 100mil dollars(1Bil+ if youre the Dodgers) or tanking for 4 years.

So what? The point being made was that the offense could be great. My response was "compared to what?". Those other teams have equal or better offenses. It doesn't matter how that situation got to be, all the matters is that it exists. I'm not worried about where the rebuild is "supposed" to be, I'm concerned with where it actually is. I think Stearns deserves a whole lot more credit than he gets, no question. I think everybody on here is excited about the future or they wouldn't be on here. Having said that, why can't a fan want to compete for a title in 2018 AND in the future? That isn't a binary choice. You're not a bad or ignorant fan if you want to win now any more than you are a smarter fan if you want to build for sustained success. Signing a guy like Cobb improves the team to win now without mortgaging the future.

[JohnBriggs12]

Arrietas FB is one of the few that declined last year with the new measurement. It declined dramatically. His stuff is a lot of fb and cutter.

 

The counter to all the Arrieta's lost velocity talk is Justin Verlander, who experienced significant velocity loss around the same age as Arrieta after logging tons of innings the prior 4-5 seasons. His 2014 was much worse than Arrieta's 2017. A lot of folks thought he was washed up. Arrieta still gets good movement on all his pitches and his fastball upticked slightly in the 2nd half last year. He blamed his velocity loss on a minor delivery issue. All the innings he logged from 2014-2016 probably had a lot to do with it. He's a fanatical fitness guy who understands the mechanics of his delivery.

 

I'd never advocate giving a pitcher a 5-6 year deal in the $25+ million AAV range. For a small market team that's a huge risk. But a front loaded deal with an opt out? Now that's worthy of strong consideration in the case of Arrieta who I think is better than Darvish. I don't think Boras is there yet though, and it's a waiting game.

[brewcrewdue80]

We're competing with these teams who are at an advantage as well to better draft positions where their players are further graduated than ours. Normal rebuilds at this stage would be 70 win projection and wondering how to tank for another top 5 draft pick. You must not have been here in '14/'15 when we all knew a rebuild was about to happen and 4-5years of such were coming. Stearns completely changed that. The team is above .500 and for this franchise, I'm excited about the future and not just focused on competing in 2018 to be WS better on paper to teams that should be embarrassed right now that Milwaukee is competing with them and it took them 100mil dollars(1Bil+ if youre the Dodgers) or tanking for 4 years.

So what? The point being made was that the offense could be great. My response was "compared to what?". Those other teams have equal or better offenses. It doesn't matter how that situation got to be, all the matters is that it exists. I'm not worried about where the rebuild is "supposed" to be, I'm concerned with where it actually is. I think Stearns deserves a whole lot more credit than he gets, no question. I think everybody on here is excited about the future or they wouldn't be on here. Having said that, why can't a fan want to compete for a title in 2018 AND in the future? That isn't a binary choice. You're not a bad or ignorant fan if you want to win now any more than you are a smarter fan if you want to build for sustained success. Signing a guy like Cobb improves the team to win now without mortgaging the future.

 

As of the morning yesterday and thus far today, Cobb hasn't signed with anybody. Until he's signed away to a different team being upset that he's not on this team today, or yesterday, is redundant. Point on listing all those teams, is that they have bigger pockets. A lot here want to sign Walker, a lot on Arrieta, Cobb, Myself Lynn. And then also trade for another arm or expect to trade for that arm in June.

 

There's a limit to what the team will spend and profit/stagnate it's profit. Mark A. isn't Illitch with a ticking death clock and overspend a typical Small Market payroll.

 

I think the Yelich/Cain deals tripped up Stearns offseason goals once those two acquisitions stuffed a 25man roster with 6 OFs, 2 1bs, and 2 2bs with only 5 everyday spots. Sure you could option Phillips/Broxton and even waive Aguilar/Sogard/Villar but the move to trade the extras are now valued less on trade value. It's obvious we need to move someone so you want him gone I'll give you our 10th or lower prospect vs a 5th or better. Same happens on high contract players when traded. Stanton was 7+WAR last year but only returned 2 lottery tickets and a poor contract Starlin Castro.

 

I'm going on the guess now that we're playing chicken with waives and injuries to open up a new trade suitor. We can go in to the season with these 8 extras and not change much for 2018 expectations. Another team has OD to acquire a Santana who helps them change their '18 outlook. We also could experience that injury ourselves and then we are thankfully glad we still have so and so on the team.

[badger3034]

Guess I'm not sure where the Stanton comparison plays in here. Largest contract in history with only a couple of teams able to take him on, and only a couple that he wanted to go to. Obviously that's going to yield a small return, even if he is really good. Santana is on a league minimum contract with team control... That being said, the reasons teams don't want him is because they think he's reached his ceiling.

[Boomer5]

The offense is most certainly not "great", not even if you stretched that definition to full homer levels. They were 10th in runs scored in the NL last year and that's with everyone but Braun and Villar having pretty much career years.

 

We did add two good but not great hitters who are far more professional than the swing and miss brigade we trotted out there before but neither is what you'd call a big run producer like a 2008 Braun or Fielder. They are however great fielders and that will definitely help the pitchers.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Respectfully have to disagree with you Boomer. MLB network just did their top 10 lists, granted not a perfect model. They ranked Yelich 6th and Cain 5th of ALL outfielders. How does that not improve them drastically when we trotted Keon Broxton out there for 120 games? Yelich is 26 and could be due for even greater numbers, his swing is a thing of beauty. This team should be more balanced than the homer dependent team last year.

[pacopete4]

Run producer = a good hitter that bats behind those that get on base. Look for Braun, Shaw and Santana (if still here) to have many, many opportunities to be those run producers that we’ll need.

[82brewcrew82]

Respectfully have to disagree with you Boomer. MLB network just did their top 10 lists, granted not a perfect model. They ranked Yelich 6th and Cain 5th of ALL outfielders. How does that not improve them drastically when we trotted Keon Broxton out there for 120 games? Yelich is 26 and could be due for even greater numbers, his swing is a thing of beauty. This team should be more balanced than the homer dependent team last year.

This is what we keep coming back to. Great, the offense is better. Is it better than the top five or six teams in the league? Because the pitching isn't so if the offense isn't either then this is a marginal playoff team at best.

[superfly]

Our offense can play with anybody. ANY regression in pitching from a bunch of guys that overachieved (by their career norms) though and we're going to be hurting. I'm not losing my patience yet, but if Arrieta or Cobb don't end up here absent a SP trade I will be. I love the Yelich add but what was the point if we weren't serious?

Not picking on you personally, but Arrieta stinks in Baltimore and goes to Chicago and becomes a star who people want to sign as a FA; however, Anderson goes from ARI to MIL, has a very good year and a half stretch, but "overachieved" and is due for regression.

 

Why are players on other teams who improve later in their career stars who we want, but when Brewers improve they overachieve and are due for regression?

 

 

I agree with this, but some Brewer fans have a Chicken Little complex. The sky is going to fall and our team will eventually lose, because, well, we're the Brewers.

 

 

Did I single out Anderson? Nelson outperformed his career norms significantly, Knebel was crazy good, Hader was ridiculous, etc. It is absolutely not "Chicken Little Complex" to suggest some guy(s) might have worse seasons than last year while other guys have better seasons. Jonathan Villar is a prime example of a guy everybody hates right now because he had a bad year, and could very well have a much better year this year if he gets the playing time. BLASPHEMY to suggest that. Yes the guys can still improve from here, but everybody treats Chase Anderson as a foregone #2 starter, Corey Knebel an all star closer, Nelson a #1 for us on one season, etc off a pretty small sample size.

[homer]

Respectfully have to disagree with you Boomer. MLB network just did their top 10 lists, granted not a perfect model. They ranked Yelich 6th and Cain 5th of ALL outfielders. How does that not improve them drastically when we trotted Keon Broxton out there for 120 games? Yelich is 26 and could be due for even greater numbers, his swing is a thing of beauty. This team should be more balanced than the homer dependent team last year.

This is what we keep coming back to. Great, the offense is better. Is it better than the top five or six teams in the league? Because the pitching isn't so if the offense isn't either then this is a marginal playoff team at best.

 

It doesn't take much improvement to get in the top 5 - 6 in offense. Dodgers averaged 4.75 runs which ranked 6th in NL and Brewers averaged 4.52. So a quarter of a run per game improvement is all they need which is like 40 runs per year. I'll leave it to the stat heads to figure if Yelich and Cain alone can garner an extra 40 runs over the course of a season but I'd wager they probably could.

[brewmann04]

None of the guys on the roster are replacing Nelson and they need that if they expect to be a wild card contender