Anyone else losing their patience?

[Eye Black]

Fangraphs provides valuable data for sure, but their team projections are always absolutely terrible. My issue came from the poster that said we shouldn't bother signing relievers because fangraphs says we are going to be 7th worst in the league. It's basically the classic bf.net pick one statistical measure that supports your claim and ignore all evidence to the contrary...and the supporting measure they chose was an awful one at that. Fangraphs is terrible at projecting young players and regression of aging players. Not that it's easy, it doesn't change that they typically project aging players to be timeless until shown otherwise and young players to be terrible until shown otherwise.

 

It wouldn't take a lot for us to dip down to 73 wins. We won 86 but we're going to be without Nelson for an undetermined amount of time and if he gets back during the season it will probably just be to get some innings, not expecting ace like production. That's probably a 3-4 win drop and we're already down to 82 or 83 wins. If Anderson regresses to say a 1.5 WAR pitcher (last year's 3.3 WAR was more than he accumulated in 400+ innings over his career previously) then we could be in for another 2 win drop and we're down to 80 or 81. Knebel could regress, Santana could regress, Shaw could regress, Braun could get hurt and all of those things happening and they aren't as far fetched as some think, then we're probably in the 72-75 win range.

 

Now obviously we could get breakouts from Arcia, Phillips, Brinson etc to push the win total back up but you had a lot of guys that are older doing things they never came close to doing before, so projections are probably going to have them regressing to somewhere between what they had done prior to last year and what they did last year and weighted closer to the lower end because there's more of a sample size of production or lack thereof.

 

There is no doubt that the Brewers could win 73 games, or less. I just think projecting us there is silly. And meanwhile the Cubs and their(at the time) 3 starting pitchers are going to win 100 games? Anything less than a 78 win projection is a terrible projection in my opinion. We have so many guys that could break out. If even 1 or 2 of our many breakout candidates do indeed break out, the 73 win projection is going to look incredibly terrible.

Just a follow-up note for the discussion we were having in this thread, the most recent Effectively Wild podcast confirmed that currently the Brewers Fangraphs projection is based solely on Steamer, and that nothing from ZiPS has been factored in thus far. The two projection systems are weighted 50/50, but ZiPS doesn’t get added until late in the off-season. They said ZiPS is higher on the Brewers than Steamer and the Brewers projection will improve when the ZiPS data is eventually applied.

[Brewer Fever]

No, because I'm a grown up who knows there are 2 months before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

 

Revisiting this to emphasize that there was no reason to write the book on this offseason back in December. And also because apprently a few quiet days around here means they're done and everything else Stearns was working on fell through or this was all he had planned.

 

Relax. The moves last week and the signing yesterday only make sense if there's more to come. Nothing about Stearns suggests he's a half measures, flying blind kind of guy.

 

Heck, both the the owner and GM came right out and said they moved up the "go for it" timeline 2 years from 2020 to 2018. Does a massive roster imbalance with way too many OF/IF, and C's and not enough pitchers yell going for it to you? Shut your paranoid minds off and wait for the next shoe to drop.

[TJseven7]

Once again... the silence of the market has become deffening. There's so many shoes to drop... whats the hold up.

[Cire52]

Yes. Yes I am

[Warning Track Power]

Yes. Yes I am

I am not losing my patience. However, I am frustrated that the Brewers upgraded two positions that were considered to be at worst league average (RF, CF) and have yet to address the gaping hole at the top of the rotation with Nelson's injury. If Nelson were healthy, then sure the Brewers don't necessarily need to make an addition. He isn't though and the cost of acquisition mid-season if he doesn't bounce back will VERY high.

 

I love the Cain and Yelich moves but the offseason is incomplete without addressing SP.

[TJseven7]

Well adding a sp is hard when 3 of the "big 4" are FAs still and trade asks for young controlled guys are borderline insane.

 

Im annoyed more that 3 starting arms, moose walker and holland don't have a home yet.

[Boomer5]

Once again... the silence of the market has become deffening. There's so many shoes to drop... whats the hold up.

 

Two reasons:

 

1.) the players want to make a lot of money

2.) teams got smarter and don't want to pay them so much

[brewerhuman]

I’m annoyed by the lack of movement in general, but I won’t lose patience until the Brewers see a lot of moves pass them by. I have a high level of trust in Stearns and haven’t had that burned too badly yet. I do admit that it’s hard to stay patient because I like the energy that a trade or signing brings, but it’s all I can be right now. I suppose anxious is the most accurate word for how I feel now.

[Oldcity]

The pitching looks better than it did at this time last year. No Peralta, no Guerra (probably), no Garza, no Torres, no Milone, no Feliz. There is decent depth in the rotation.

 

I'd like them to add one more starter, but there's no reason they can't play above .500 if they don't add one. That would allow them to be in position to add a pitcher mid-season.

[brewmann04]

I can't see them being 500 without a better addition to the rotation

[TJseven7]

I can't see them being 500 without a better addition to the rotation

 

There was a lot of crap pitching for us last year. Starting and pen. I can see the team being 500... cant see them being considered good though.

[JohnBriggs12]

I can't see them being 500 without a better addition to the rotation

 

There was a lot of crap pitching for us last year. Starting and pen. I can see the team being 500... cant see them being considered good though.

 

I can for the following reasons:

 

A full season of Josh Hader

 

Fewer strikeouts by the lineup

 

Better OF defense

 

Chacin is not an insignificant addition to the rotation

 

Junior Guerra is healthy and ready to be the Guerra of 2016

 

This is Arcia's year to fully blossom and be an All Star

 

Plenty of arm options ready in AAA

[Montezuma]

Am I losing my patience???? No, it's spring training for crying out loud.

[82brewcrew82]

I can't see them being 500 without a better addition to the rotation

 

There was a lot of crap pitching for us last year. Starting and pen. I can see the team being 500... cant see them being considered good though.

 

I can for the following reasons:

 

A full season of Josh Hader Limited impact

 

Fewer strikeouts by the lineup They will score runs but run prevention is part of th game too.

 

Better OF defense Maybe, depends on whether they clear up the roster and/or Braun can play first. If guys are forced to play out of position that cancels some of that benefit. If Braun is horrible at first, it basically nullifies the gains in the OF.

 

Chacin is not an insignificant addition to the rotation Nor is losing Nelson an insignificant loss. Chacin does not replace Nelson.

 

Junior Guerra is healthy and ready to be the Guerra of 2016 Pure speculation

This is Arcia's year to fully blossom and be an All Star Pure speculation

 

Plenty of arm options ready in AAA Pure speculation

All in all, that is a pretty thin set of hopes and maybe's.

[pacopete4]

I'm not losing patience because there are plenty of free agents out there still and ST is just about to start. Usually, towards the end of ST, there are players on waivers that might also be options for us. I still would love if Stearns targeted McHugh from Houston. But maybe that's just me. While it would be great to have our 25 man set basically, it is what it is and it will come together. Whether that includes Santana or not, we'll soon find out.

[Oldcity]

The biggest difference is the offense. It was poor last year, and it looks to be at least good and perhaps great. I definitely expect this team to be over .500 even if they don't add any pitching. All the projection systems agree.

[82brewcrew82]

How are we defining great? The only thing that matters to me is how they stack up against current competition. Is the offense greater than Chicago's? Washington, Arizona, LA, Colorado, STL? I'm not at all convinced the pitching is superior to any of those teams. If the offense isn't either, what do we have then?

[tigerbrew]

Hopefully 2 guys in this group of Guerra/Yo/Suter/Woodruff pitch great in ST and deserve spots in the rotation, then we may not need to get another SP. Patience is a virtue, could be better to see how this group performs in ST first.

 

Listening to his interview, seems like Stearns is looking a SP that is "significantly better" than what we have, I take that to mean he's looking for a TOR type pitcher.

 

The Brewers offense should be an improvement from last season with the addition of Cain and Yelich.

[rickh150]

Batting- We might be a little better than avg.

Pitching- As of right now, we might be a little worse than avg.

Overall a .500 team is what we look to have right now. That keeps us in it until early September.

[Jopal78]

Look at the Brewer teams from 2007-2012.

 

2007: 5th in Runs Scored, 9th in Runs Allowed 83-79 record

2008: 7th in Runs Scored, 2nd in Runs Allowed 90-72 record

2009: 3rd in Runs Scored, 15th in Runs Allowed 80-82 record

2010: 4th in Runs Scored, 14th in Runs Allowed 77-85 record

2011: 5th in Runs Scored, 6th in Runs Allowed 96-66 record

2012: 1st in Runs Scored, 13th in Runs Allowed 83-79 record

 

Having a good offense in MLB, means the team at worst will likely be mediocre (see 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2012), it is pitching that counts. The Prince Fielder/Ryan Braun era teams were not consistent playoff contenders because the front office failed to develop and/or acquire quality starting pitching.

 

I'm sure the current front office occupants are aware of both of the preceding and will add a pitcher at some point after the gamesmanship between other teams on the trade front, or gamesmanship with players' agents dies down. Its not as if Arrieta, Cobb, Lance Lynn etc. are going to sit out the 2018 season. At some point the game of chicken will end.

[superfly]

Our offense can play with anybody. ANY regression in pitching from a bunch of guys that overachieved (by their career norms) though and we're going to be hurting. I'm not losing my patience yet, but if Arrieta or Cobb don't end up here absent a SP trade I will be. I love the Yelich add but what was the point if we weren't serious?

[Boomer5]

A pitcher or pitchers and likely a 2B will be added. I am highly doubting Arrieta as he apparently wants Mad Max money. Good luck.

 

One note, the Brewers were 10th in runs scored and 5th in runs allowed in the NL last year. Take that however you choose.

[NOMAAM]

I have a feeling Lynn will sign soon. After that the market for Cobb should be pretty well cemented. So the brewers will know if they need to go the trade route.

[TJseven7]

2017 10th in runs scored. 5th in runs allowed.

 

Someone posted on a thread that we had 36 starts worth of innings that were pitched by guys over 6 era. Pens better. Chacins better than Garza. Not having nelson is a downgrade but unless you replace him with a trainwreck its not as big of a downgrade as the upgrade we could see from the bottom. 1 arm is very needed to make the depth stable.

 

10th in runs. Well adding a 300/360 table setter and a 290/360 stud should help that. I dont think Braun/Thames Santana Shaw were the problem. At our best we had walker broxton and phillips as the 2b and CF and 4th OF. 2b is worse but not batting lead off (hopefully) but CF is cain and 4th OF is Braun?

 

#1 hr, #12 in hits, #11 in avg, #10 in obp

Cain alone should help a lot there. Bumps the team up to 5th in hits by himself v broxton and friends.

[FVBrewerFan]

How are we defining great? The only thing that matters to me is how they stack up against current competition. Is the offense greater than Chicago's? Washington, Arizona, LA, Colorado, STL? I'm not at all convinced the pitching is superior to any of those teams. If the offense isn't either, what do we have then?

 

Same thing we're likely to do every year. Hope that results on the field surpass what's on paper. The Brewers are likely to never look like one of the best 1-2 teams in February/March. Now it's Cubs, Dodgers, Nats. Down the road, it may be the Cards, DBacks, Braves, Mets....who knows.

 

That's ok. If they can build a really good team and sustain it, then they will at least be in the hunt every year. Lots of things can happen then. Key injuries/bad performance by other contenders, better performance from our own players, and always the option of picking up firepower at the break.

 

Plus, the Brewers are still way too difficult to project. Yelich/Cain help projections on offense but you still have Arcia, Pina, and Villar/2B who are really difficult to project. Even guys like Shaw, Thames, Santana. In fact, do we even know what we'll get out of Braun?

 

Pitching is even tougher to project. Davies/Chacin you pretty much know what you're getting, after that it gets real tough. And the BP isn't any easier.

 

But they were never going to be as good as those other teams on paper this year, even if they do sign a Cobb or Arrietta.