Mets Agree To Terms With Anthony Swarzak - 2-years/$14M

[monty57]

Yes, of course we'll do something. We don't have minor leaguers to fill in every position when prices get high, but that is why we need to always have a strong farm.

 

I am in the crowd that was somewhat surprised when we let Hughes go, but Stearns wouldn't have done that if he didn't have some plan going forward. The price tags probably altered that plan, but we will not go into the season without doing anything to improve the pen.

 

A "real world" example of what I was saying in my last post was that if the price-tag of relievers has gotten out of hand, then instead of getting two FA relievers and going with Villar/Sogard at second, maybe now we get one FA reliever and sign Walker as our second baseman at a reduced price because everyone else spent their money overpaying for a bullpen. Or, maybe we invite more guys to ST who had down seasons last year and capitalize when one of them has a "bounceback" year, which is common in the volatile world of MLB relief pitchers.

[trwi7]

What if Stearns thinks a large number of our players over performed and isn't willing to spend until they prove they can repeat what the did last year for another year?

[monty57]

What if Stearns thinks a large number of our players over performed and isn't willing to spend until they prove they can repeat what the did last year for another year?

 

Probably depends on what you mean by "spend." I doubt they'll max out payroll (probably $110-120M), but they strongly hinted that they were going to spend some money to fill some holes so I'd be surprised if they don't add salary somewhere. Stearns has already said that they have offers out to free agents, so he's not sitting on his hands.

 

Purely a guess, but I think they'll end somewhere in the $80-90M range, which would allow for them to add players at the deadline if they're in it, and to give themselves some cushion in future years as more of their roster gets arby raises.

[trwi7]

What if Stearns thinks a large number of our players over performed and isn't willing to spend until they prove they can repeat what the did last year for another year?

 

Probably depends on what you mean by "spend." I doubt they'll max out payroll (probably $110-120M), but they strongly hinted that they were going to spend some money to fill some holes so I'd be surprised if they don't add salary somewhere. Stearns has already said that they have offers out to free agents, so he's not sitting on his hands.

 

Of course he said that because he's not going to say to the fans "We don't really think we had an 86 win team last year and we expect regression this year." Instead he's going to say they're going to be in on free agents and have offers out to them but aww shucks we just kept getting outbid.

[502 to Right]

You need a bullpen, but an 8-man bullpen at an average of $8M per is $64M, which the Brewers cannot afford to pay for a bullpen. Going into the offseason, I wanted Stearns to use some of the free cash to bolster the pen, but as others have said you have to have discipline when prices start getting too high. At some point, an "unproven" league-minimum guy like Williams becomes a better option than a high-priced veteran.

 

That's a strawman argument. No one here is saying Stearns should sign 8 relievers at $8mil per.

[monty57]

What if Stearns thinks a large number of our players over performed and isn't willing to spend until they prove they can repeat what the did last year for another year?

 

Probably depends on what you mean by "spend." I doubt they'll max out payroll (probably $110-120M), but they strongly hinted that they were going to spend some money to fill some holes so I'd be surprised if they don't add salary somewhere. Stearns has already said that they have offers out to free agents, so he's not sitting on his hands.

 

Of course he said that because he's not going to say to the fans "We don't really think we had an 86 win team last year and we expect regression this year." Instead he's going to say they're going to be in on free agents and have offers out to them but aww shucks we just kept getting outbid.

 

Going into last season, when they thought they were going to suck, they still went out and made moves to try to improve the roster. We're all anxious to see what the Brewers do, but we have to be realistic. Stearns and Attanasio are not sitting back doing nothing just to see what happens.

 

Even if he believes that they overachieved last season, Stearns would still make some moves to add talent, it's in his DNA. As to Attanasio, I'd guess Stearns has stolen his phone so he doesn't personally call agents making outlandish offers. He's certainly not the type to do what you're proposing.

[monty57]

You need a bullpen, but an 8-man bullpen at an average of $8M per is $64M, which the Brewers cannot afford to pay for a bullpen. Going into the offseason, I wanted Stearns to use some of the free cash to bolster the pen, but as others have said you have to have discipline when prices start getting too high. At some point, an "unproven" league-minimum guy like Williams becomes a better option than a high-priced veteran.

 

That's a strawman argument. No one here is saying Stearns should sign 8 relievers at $8mil per.

 

I never said anyone did. I've been saying all offseason that I want them to bolster the bullpen, and I still do. The math just adds up that if relievers start to cost around $8M per year we will not be able to afford it long-term without having a lot of homegrown (pre-arby/arby) guys in the 'pen.

 

It's easy to say "we can afford $X for a player," but big contracts add up quickly. Even though we have free cash, it doesn't take too many seven- or eight-figure salaries to eat up that free cash. Without some discipline, it's easy to get financially strapped.

 

I hope we are able to make up some ground in the next TV deal, but right now the reality for the Brewers is that they can't get into the habit of overpaying for players.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I guess I can kind of see both sides on this one. This deal in that middle range for me where I wouldn't have hated it if they had matched but can understand why they didn't.

[Boomer5]

Kintzler resigned with the Nationals

[Boomer5]

What if Stearns thinks a large number of our players over performed and isn't willing to spend until they prove they can repeat what the did last year for another year?

 

I believe that is part of the issue. The analytics said 2017 was a fluke. Fangraphs had our roster as one of the bottom 4-5 all year long.

 

Another issue is how good is our system to other teams? We have a lot of depth but not a lot of stars. Could it be that teams aren't jumping to acquire the Diazs and Rays of our system?

 

Ultimately I feel the main issue is the bullpen is not Stearns strength. He hasn't yet developed a great feel for the wildly moving performances year over year nor the price point. Therefore he is probably very cautious with his moves.

[502 to Right]

Many of you sound like spoiled 6 year olds.

 

That's a bit over the top. Speaking for myself, I said that I think the non-signing of Swarzak is "troubling" and that I think Stearns has misjudged the reliever market.

 

Let's not make it more than it is.

[Thurston Fluff]

Personally, I think Stearns has misjudged the market. And he will be left digging through the bargain bin to fill out the bullpen. For the record, I like Stearns a lot--but I think the reliever marker is not the place to be a hard ass with money given the relatively short contracts for even pretty good RP's.

 

It will be interesting to see what Jared Hughes gets on the open market. Stearns non-tendered him not wanting to pay the projected $3m in arbitration. In hindsight that might have turned out to be a great deal for the Brewers.

 

Swarzak was found in the bargain bin to begin with. I just don't see much evidence that going after higher valued relievers produces better results than scrap heap guys and minor leaguers.

[adambr2]

Many of you sound like spoiled 6 year olds.

 

That's a bit over the top. Speaking for myself, I said that I think the non-signing of Swarzak is "troubling" and that I think Stearns has misjudged the reliever market.

 

Let's not make it more than it is.

 

Why is it 'troubling? Stearns set his number of what he thought Swarzek is worth based on the info he has and he stuck to it. Maybe we prefer other relievers. Maybe our scouts don't think Swarzek is likely to replicate his 2017. Maybe Swarzek was intrigued by New York and wasn't going to pick us over them for similar money. I really don't know. But I would be much more troubled if Stearns trumped a top offer for a reliever solely on the basis of he was good for us last year and liked it here.

[Thurston Fluff]

It could also be that Stearns has set a price based more on the role more than the player. Alternatively if the odds are you have a similar chance of finding the same level player one way vs another it makes no sense to go the higher priced way regardless of how much money you have to spend.

[KeithStone53151]

Personally, I think Stearns has misjudged the market. And he will be left digging through the bargain bin to fill out the bullpen. For the record, I like Stearns a lot--but I think the reliever marker is not the place to be a hard ass with money given the relatively short contracts for even pretty good RP's.

 

It will be interesting to see what Jared Hughes gets on the open market. Stearns non-tendered him not wanting to pay the projected $3m in arbitration. In hindsight that might have turned out to be a great deal for the Brewers.

 

Swarzak was found in the bargain bin to begin with. I just don't see much evidence that going after higher valued relievers produces better results than scrap heap guys and minor leaguers.

 

For every surprise like Swarzak, there are 3 feliz's. In a year that we should be hoping to perform better, we shouldn't be searching the bargain bin for guys to fill key roles. We can try doing that for a spot, or more likely is use minor leaguers for 1 or 2 spots. But we can't have a bullpen of Knebel, middle relievers, and minor league pitchers. We need some level of stability in the back end of the bullpen. Even one higher priced guy would improve us from that standpoint.

[KeithStone53151]

Many of you sound like spoiled 6 year olds.

 

That's a bit over the top. Speaking for myself, I said that I think the non-signing of Swarzak is "troubling" and that I think Stearns has misjudged the reliever market.

 

Let's not make it more than it is.

 

Why is it 'troubling? Stearns set his number of what he thought Swarzek is worth based on the info he has and he stuck to it. Maybe we prefer other relievers. Maybe our scouts don't think Swarzek is likely to replicate his 2017. Maybe Swarzek was intrigued by New York and wasn't going to pick us over them for similar money. I really don't know. But I would be much more troubled if Stearns trumped a top offer for a reliever solely on the basis of he was good for us last year and liked it here.

 

The concern is that high-end relievers are dropping like flies. And most of us don't want to be standing here with a bunch of money to potentially spend and the supply gone. Even now, demand > supply of these relievers. Many teams still want to sign the remaining quality arms, and there are fewer and fewer available. I don't want to take risks on guys like Torres, Feliz, Drake, Swarzak....sure Swarzak worked out for Minnesota but none of the other three worked out long term for us. I don't mind not signing Swarzak, if you were to isolate that move. What I mind is not signing any of the 15-20 relievers that have signed already and fit the bill of what I was hoping Stearns would target.

 

Stearns has a very solid track record of making quality moves that are good for the Brewers. I would have liked to see him more decisive with the free agent relievers, but maybe it's all part of his master plan and he has other moves in the works to fill out the bullpen. It's also possible that we've reached agreement with someone pending physical.

[Thurston Fluff]

Personally, I think Stearns has misjudged the market. And he will be left digging through the bargain bin to fill out the bullpen. For the record, I like Stearns a lot--but I think the reliever marker is not the place to be a hard ass with money given the relatively short contracts for even pretty good RP's.

 

It will be interesting to see what Jared Hughes gets on the open market. Stearns non-tendered him not wanting to pay the projected $3m in arbitration. In hindsight that might have turned out to be a great deal for the Brewers.

 

Swarzak was found in the bargain bin to begin with. I just don't see much evidence that going after higher valued relievers produces better results than scrap heap guys and minor leaguers.

 

For every surprise like Swarzak, there are 3 feliz's. In a year that we should be hoping to perform better, we shouldn't be searching the bargain bin for guys to fill key roles. We can try doing that for a spot, or more likely is use minor leaguers for 1 or 2 spots. But we can't have a bullpen of Knebel, middle relievers, and minor league pitchers. We need some level of stability in the back end of the bullpen. Even one higher priced guy would improve us from that standpoint.

 

For every Swarzak (the current version) there is a Will Smith, Tyler Thornburg and Jeremy Jeffress. The difference is you can find 4 scrap heap guys to find the one you need but you can't buy 4 high priced ones to find the one you need. While people always want stability that just isn't something bullpens rarely ever are from year to year. It might make the fans feel better but it's fools gold. Stearns is paid not to buy into a fool's errand.

[rwa12]

I'm fine with a turnstyle in the bullpen. I don't believe there is much depth in the "proven reliever" market. These guys are just so volatile. I'd rather take chances with youth and lottery tickets, than bet on repeating success in the bullpen. Obvious caveats with the top tier, but we're not discussing them.

[Humans Need Water]

 

Agreed, except what happens when the price for EVERYONE has gone up? Then you get to keep your money, but meantime the teams around you (read: Cubs and Cardinals) are seriously improved and you've stood pat. Agreed, it's still early, but passing on Swarzak and taking a flyer, say on JJ Hoover, doesn't seem to be a recipe for success.

 

However my prediction is that the answer will lie more in house than outside. I think Adrian Houser is going to the big surprise of the 2018 Brewer bullpen. Stearns himself was raving about him the other day, something he rarely does about anyone.

*if* the price goes up for everyone that doesn't mean Stearns won't place X dollars on that person and it aligns on both sides. What I stated about Stearns is exactly what he said in regard to Swarzak (I just read his comments now). He agreed on years but not on dollar amount. I get why people don't like this approach, especially when off by like 1-2M annually over 2yrs but it's how he operates. He's value oriented at this point in time - maybe that changes as the team contends with all these top 10 prospects up by/during 2019 but it makes sense at this point.

[Thurston Fluff]

 

Agreed, except what happens when the price for EVERYONE has gone up? Then you get to keep your money, but meantime the teams around you (read: Cubs and Cardinals) are seriously improved and you've stood pat. Agreed, it's still early, but passing on Swarzak and taking a flyer, say on JJ Hoover, doesn't seem to be a recipe for success.

 

That means the price for players in other positions goes down. In baseball there are so many differnt ways to build a winning team that no single position group is more vital than any other. Some are just more in vogue so it costs more to get them. It's better to find the next big thing than to chase the last one. It will be undervalued so you can get a lot more for a lot less and have more overall talent. If relievers get so crazy in cost then teams will not have as much to spend of starters. If pitching is outrageous the price for hitters will be less and so on.

[djoctagone]

anthony swarzak was transferred to the 60-day disabled list today by the mets.

[adambr2]

Seems Stearns did ok on assembling the pen and not dropping big money on relievers like everyone else.