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Patrick Corbin


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The Corbin for Broxton deal might be one of those deals HH19 is talking about that are out there but other signings/trades would need to take place for it to actually get done. Example: if the Brewers do trace Phillips and/or Santana, maybe they want to hold onto Broxton.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Boras is said to be putting on a full court press with Dbacks owner about bringing back Martinez. That would put them in position to have to unload salary somewhere. Their CF Pollack is a FA after this season making a Broxton who still can be optioned a logical trade target. Corbin for Broxton would be a steal. Can't believe the negativity on here for a guy who's been a serviceable LH starter since he was 22 and is still just 28 and in his prime. B-R had him as a 3.1 WAR player in 2017 and he had his career best K rate of a very respectable 8.4 per 9. It's not like they don't have options if he's an utter failure or that they are giving up anything of any value going forward in Broxton.
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Add Corbin and McHugh and go to battle. See what happens.

 

1. Anderson

2. Davies

3. Chacin

4. Corbin

5. McHugh

 

Not world beaters but let's put up a ton of runs and have a shutdown pen.

 

Then you have guys like Suter, Woodruff, Guerra, Gallardo to fill in for any injuries that may occur.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Boras is said to be putting on a full court press with Dbacks owner about bringing back Martinez. That would put them in position to have to unload salary somewhere. Their CF Pollack is a FA after this season making a Broxton who still can be optioned a logical trade target. Corbin for Broxton would be a steal. Can't believe the negativity on here for a guy who's been a serviceable LH starter since he was 22 and is still just 28 and in his prime. B-R had him as a 3.1 WAR player in 2017 and he had his career best K rate of a very respectable 8.4 per 9. It's not like they don't have options if he's an utter failure or that they are giving up anything of any value going forward in Broxton.

 

I believe the diamondbacks signed a massive tv deal within the past couple years. Not as big as the big markets, but substantial. I don't necessarily think Martinez would force them to move payroll, but at the same time I can see why Broxton would make a world of sense for them if they brought in Martinez. Heck they could option Broxton for a chunk of the year if needed and have him as a cheap CF option for next year when Pollock leaves. Corbin is probably on par with Chacin from a value standpoint. We should be aiming higher than Corbin as he doesn't really move the needle for our rotation, there's a very reasonable chance that Woodruff posts better numbers than Corbin.

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Corbin definitely moves the needle. He was a top 30 starting pitcher last year. Because he has one year left, he should be more easily attainable. He's actually my favorite target due to those circumstances. He'd bridge the gap very nicely to Burnes/Ortiz.
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Add Corbin and McHugh and go to battle. See what happens.

 

1. Anderson

2. Davies

3. Chacin

4. Corbin

5. McHugh

 

Not world beaters but let's put up a ton of runs and have a shutdown pen.

 

Then you have guys like Suter, Woodruff, Guerra, Gallardo to fill in for any injuries that may occur.

 

I think Chacin is the #5 there, but that has the makings of a pretty solid rotation even before Nelson returns.

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Corbin definitely moves the needle. He was a top 30 starting pitcher last year. Because he has one year left, he should be more easily attainable. He's actually my favorite target due to those circumstances. He'd bridge the gap very nicely to Burnes/Ortiz.

 

Top 30? He was worse than Davies. Davies is good but not top 30. He's not all tgat much better than Chacin.

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Top 30? He was worse than Davies. Davies is good but not top 30. He's not all tgat much better than Chacin.

 

Corbin's FIP and ERA+ were both better than Davies' last year.

 

I've said it before, and I'll emphasize it again: Corbin's 2017 ERA+ is better than the ZiPS projections for every single pitcher on the staff, including Anderson. I wouldn't even consider a trade of Santana for him straight up, but he'd be a solid 3 on our staff and would undeniably make us better.

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Top 30? He was worse than Davies. Davies is good but not top 30. He's not all tgat much better than Chacin.

 

Corbin's FIP and ERA+ were both better than Davies' last year.

 

I've said it before, and I'll emphasize it again: Corbin's 2017 ERA+ is better than the ZiPS projections for every single pitcher on the staff, including Anderson. I wouldn't even consider a trade of Santana for him straight up, but he'd be a solid 3 on our staff and would undeniably make us better.

Even so, I'm just not sure that is how I use Santana. To me, a Corbin acquisition makes more sense if they sign Arietta but not as the marquee pitching acquisition.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave
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Even so, I'm just not sure that is how I use Santana. To me, a Corbin acquisition makes more sense if they sign Arietta but not as the marquee pitching acquisition.

 

Agreed. He's the second addition to solidify the staff, but you'd want more to make a legit run.

 

Something like Anderson/Archer/Davies/Corbin/Chacin or Arietta/Anderson/Davies/Corbin/Chacin to start the year seems like a rotation that could contend with this offense.

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Corbin definitely moves the needle. He was a top 30 starting pitcher last year. Because he has one year left, he should be more easily attainable. He's actually my favorite target due to those circumstances. He'd bridge the gap very nicely to Burnes/Ortiz.

 

Don't know if you make any plans around Ortiz, but otherwise this is a valid point. I could probably be talked into it. Don't care for the idea of giving them Santana though. They're the fiercest wild card rival now and could be for a few years, and you'd be doing them a huge favor. It's not the same as letting the Cubs outbid you for Darvish, because the Brewers had such a low probability of winning the division anyway. I'm not conceding a wild card to anyone for the next 3 years though.

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Even so, I'm just not sure that is how I use Santana. To me, a Corbin acquisition makes more sense if they sign Arietta but not as the marquee pitching acquisition.

 

Agreed. He's the second addition to solidify the staff, but you'd want more to make a legit run.

 

Something like Anderson/Archer/Davies/Corbin/Chacin or Arietta/Anderson/Davies/Corbin/Chacin to start the year seems like a rotation that could contend with this offense.

Exactly. My only quibble would be that if they trade for Archer I don't think they make another trade. I think you'd replace Corbin with Cobb or Lynn in that situation.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave
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Even so, I'm just not sure that is how I use Santana. To me, a Corbin acquisition makes more sense if they sign Arietta but not as the marquee pitching acquisition.

 

Agreed. He's the second addition to solidify the staff, but you'd want more to make a legit run.

 

Something like Anderson/Archer/Davies/Corbin/Chacin or Arietta/Anderson/Davies/Corbin/Chacin to start the year seems like a rotation that could contend with this offense.

 

You generally don't seem to have much confidence in Woodruff. I'd prefer Woodruff to Corbin, at least with Woodruff you have some upside. Plus even though we are trying to contend, we have to try and establish our prospects in the majors. I'd only target Corbin if we strike out everywhere else or if Woodruff is being included in a package for someone else. Corbin is a better option than Suter/Guerra/the other AAAA caliber pitchers we have...he's not a better option than Woodruff in my opinion.

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Even so, I'm just not sure that is how I use Santana. To me, a Corbin acquisition makes more sense if they sign Arietta but not as the marquee pitching acquisition.

 

Agreed. He's the second addition to solidify the staff, but you'd want more to make a legit run.

 

Something like Anderson/Archer/Davies/Corbin/Chacin or Arietta/Anderson/Davies/Corbin/Chacin to start the year seems like a rotation that could contend with this offense.

 

You generally don't seem to have much confidence in Woodruff. I'd prefer Woodruff to Corbin, at least with Woodruff you have some upside. Plus even though we are trying to contend, we have to try and establish our prospects in the majors. I'd only target Corbin if we strike out everywhere else or if Woodruff is being included in a package for someone else. Corbin is a better option than Suter/Guerra/the other AAAA caliber pitchers we have...he's not a better option than Woodruff in my opinion.

I would argue that Corbin is a better option right now. Having said that, I'm not underselling Woodruff but you have to have something in reserve and having a pitcher the caliber of Woodruff as your six is a great option.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave
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I've said it before, and I'll emphasize it again: Corbin's 2017 ERA+ is better than the ZiPS projections for every single pitcher on the staff, including Anderson. I wouldn't even consider a trade of Santana for him straight up, but he'd be a solid 3 on our staff and would undeniably make us better.

 

To be fair, if you use Corbin's ZiPS projection instead of what he did last year, it's a 104 ERA+ compared to Nelson's 115, Davies' 108, Anderson's 100, Chacin's 90, and Woodruff's 103. So he'd be middle of the pack. Solidifies the rotation a bit for sure, but not as much as some of the free agents (Arrieta 117, Cobb 108, Lynn 106) or other trade targets (Archer 125, Stroman 121, Salazar 117, Fulmer 111, McHugh 109)

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If we trade for Corbin, I’m good with rolling with:

 

1. Anderson

2. Davies

3. Corbin

4. Chacin

5. Woodruff

 

You’ll have Suter & Gallardo (if there’s anything left) for spot starts and then if the reports are accurate, Nelson comes back into the fold in June. If he doesn’t, then if we are contending come July, we look to add during that time.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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So, what would a Santana/Corbin package look like if we were to strike a deal? Obviously, we'd need more than just Corbin for the value we'd be giving up with Domingo. Would either Pavin Smith or Duplantier be included in the deal? No way we'd get both of them and Corbin, right?
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So, what would a Santana/Corbin package look like if we were to strike a deal? Obviously, we'd need more than just Corbin for the value we'd be giving up with Domingo. Would either Pavin Smith or Duplantier be included in the deal? No way we'd get both of them and Corbin, right?

 

I don't see Arizona getting rid of Duplantier since they're getting rid of a pitcher and he seems to be a legit lights out prospect. But, I could see us getting Pavin Smith along with Corbin for Santana.

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So, what would a Santana/Corbin package look like if we were to strike a deal? Obviously, we'd need more than just Corbin for the value we'd be giving up with Domingo. Would either Pavin Smith or Duplantier be included in the deal? No way we'd get both of them and Corbin, right?

 

I’d take Pavin Smith and Corbin for Santana. Smith is expected to move through the minors in a hurry. He and Hiura would be a great combo working there way through the minors together.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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To be fair, if you use Corbin's ZiPS projection instead of what he did last year, it's a 104 ERA+ compared to Nelson's 115, Davies' 108, Anderson's 100, Chacin's 90, and Woodruff's 103. So he'd be middle of the pack. Solidifies the rotation a bit for sure, but not as much as some of the free agents (Arrieta 117, Cobb 108, Lynn 106) or other trade targets (Archer 125, Stroman 121, Salazar 117, Fulmer 111, McHugh 109)

 

Thanks, I don’t think I had seen his projections when I initially posted that point. The thesis remains the same, though. Some people talk as though he’s not an upgrade to what we have now. This wouldn’t be a Gallardo or Guerra-like option. With Nelson out, Corbin would start the year projected to be our second best starter.

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I like Corbin a lot, I just don't see how a one-year rental makes sense, and if we are going that route isn't there some soon to be free agent out there better than Corbin (especially if we're trading a valuable asset like Santana)?
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