2018 Breakout, Bounce Back, Bust, Sleeper Players

[Eye Black]

Bounce Back:

Pitcher Luis Ortiz - I don’t know if his 2017 was considered bad necessarily, but I get the feeling some people have soured on Ortiz. I think that’s a mistake. Ortiz has never been less than 3 years younger than average for his level throughout his minor league career. Now at 21 years old I think he is on the cusp of really putting things together as he develops a repertoire of pitches establishing a no doubt starter profile. My expectations for Ortiz are lofty, but I think even with the potential of facing a tough pitching environment in 2018 he will show signs of solidifying himself as a future major league mid-rotation starter.

 

It's his K rate that concerns some people, at least that's my concern. It's rare to see someone make it as an effective MLB SP with a rather low k rate in the minors. Right or wrong, that's usually the first thing I look at when looking at stats for a MiLB pitcher. Not saying it's everything of course, just most important to me.

I know the strike out rate was low, but I think there is enough reason to believe he wasn't focusing on striking guys out this season. Scouting reports indicate he possesses two present value 60 grade pitches (fastball and slider) and spent 2017 trying to develop a third pitch (change-up) as a 21 year old at AA. I don't think the K/9 numbers should be held against him until we know for certain that he is out there trying to strike everyone out. I think he checks enough boxes right now to feel good about the likelihood he eventually becomes a major league starter.

[Humans Need Water]

Ortiz in his A and A+ years he was 3yrs young for level and had K9 of 8.3 then 9.1. It dropped down to AA in 2016 to 7 but he was approaching 4.5yrs young for level. Last year in AA he was just over 3yrs young for level and still posted a 7.5 rate while working on stuff, as noted above, which is also why his BB9 most likely rose as well. Kid is talented

[chuckiehacks]

Ortiz in his A and A+ years he was 3yrs young for level and had K9 of 8.3 then 9.1. It dropped down to AA in 2016 to 7 but he was approaching 4.5yrs young for level. Last year in AA he was just over 3yrs young for level and still posted a 7.5 rate while working on stuff, as noted above, which is also why his BB9 most likely rose as well. Kid is talented

 

That's an important point that I think a lot of people overlook (I know I did). We've been hearing about Ortiz for years, even before he was in Milwaukee's system. I was shocked to realize again that he's only 21.

[TJseven7]

Ponce is a guy that worries me with his lack of Ks a bit. I get groundball pitcher but he’s a big strong velocity guy. He pitches to contact & is hittable as well. If he can learn start to miss bats more this year he could shoot up. If not, I think he stays with next Tier back end guy.

 

He's a big strong downward plane Zach Davies results (not style) starter. Better stuff, still doesn't wow but control durability play at the mlb level. 200 ip sub 4 era. Feel like he's going to sharpen one of his 3 offspeed offerings and further learn how to use them. Not calling him an ace to TOR but he's 23 in AA and I expect him to jump from teen-early 20s prospect to clear member of the rotation. That's breakout.

Davies results....huh? Ponce was at age level in A+ this past year with a 1.292 whip, 9.8 H9, 7.1 K9....at that same age Davies was starting in MLB posting 1.249 whip, 9.1 H9, 7.4 K9. Davies minor league numbers smash Ponce and did all being plenty young for level.

 

Yup he's 23... send him to the glue factory. No chance he improves. If you arent under 21 you suck. No way he can match Davies results at the mlb level. Never!!!! I mean he's 23 and not in the majors yet. Just shoot him already and stop wasting the oxygen. Great take.

 

We have a make a prediction thread so some high and mighty twit can tell others they are stupid? Very welcoming place we have here.

 

PS... despite your degree of smug in your response Davies numbers aren't much better than Ponce but hey if you say it with attitude people believe you.... so keep it up. The only stark difference is Davies started in the minors at 18 and Ponce at 21.

[brewcrewdue80]

200 ip sub 4 era. Feel like he's going to sharpen one of his 3 offspeed offerings and further learn how to use them. Not calling him an ace to TOR

 

I'm continually confused about what how many "aces" or "TOR starters" people think there are in MLB. Between the Archer discussion and this comment, people are really boiling this down to pretty much Kershaw.

 

Last year, there were only 11 guys in all of MLB that had 200 IP and a sub-4 ERA. Wouldn't that, by definition, qualify as TOR?

 

 

Some of that 11 is due to injuries maybe that newer 10day DL. Ace himself Kershaw didn't qualify under that 200IP and wouldn't have qualified 3 of the last 4 seasons.

 

I get what you're suggesting in stats to overall pitchers. If a guy would hit rank of 20, that should equal an Ace no? But you can probably find 30 pitchers who'd face that guy or more that you'd rather have start over them. That's sorta where I rank TOR types vs a #3. How would that guy pair up vs another guy you'd consider TOR.

 

Anyway, I'll just say a Breakout will be Harrison even further after a breakout season.

Bounce back: Isan Diaz by far. too talented to post a season like his last year.

Bust: Corey Ray and agree on Trent Grisham. In that wonderful Harrison vid with Ray in it I believe it was mentioned Ray has been adjusting his leg kicks in ABs. I think that problem continues for him searching for something to work that he doesn't trust it's inconsistencies thus never getting comfortable and is bad. Grisham, I fear my predraft dislike is coming true. He's not a high ceiling guy. Which with the amount of OFs in the system make him a fail. Some point I hope we get value in trading him.

 

Sleeper: Gatewood. He had a drastic improvement just not a complete season improvement. He's growing though with Harrison(included in that video) and he's obviously worked hard to improve his game each of the last 2 seasons. I believe he's on the cusp to be an on notice top 100 prospect. Think about it, he had 23 games in AA with 10 XBH out of 22 and a .757 OPS. 40 2bs last year for a HR derby winner out of HS. One could think a little lift turns that natural power in to 25+HRs and for a 1b bat much more in line with a typical 1b expectations.

[LouisEly]

Gatewood is one of the toughest guys for me to evaluate. Zooming out, I have to keep in mind that he was in AA at the age of 21. I keep wondering if the eyesight/vision was causing problems on defense at 3B too; small sample alert, but last year in 317 innings at 3B he had a not-terrible .953 fielding % (for reference, Kris Bryant posted a .949 fielding % last year and only five qualified 3B had a fielding % of .970 or better). If he can play a passable 3B defensively he has a lot more value.

[Outlander]

Breakout: Luis Ortiz/Trent Grisham

 

Bounce back: Marcos Diplan/Demi Orimoloye

 

Bust: Jorge Lopez/Corey Ray

 

Sleeper: Carlos Herrera/Gabriel Garcia

 

Step back: Freddy Peralta/Monte Harrison

[brewcrewdue80]

Gatewood is one of the toughest guys for me to evaluate. Zooming out, I have to keep in mind that he was in AA at the age of 21. I keep wondering if the eyesight/vision was causing problems on defense at 3B too; small sample alert, but last year in 317 innings at 3B he had a not-terrible .953 fielding % (for reference, Kris Bryant posted a .949 fielding % last year and only five qualified 3B had a fielding % of .970 or better). If he can play a passable 3B defensively he has a lot more value.

 

I've committed to him becoming a 1b with 3b ability if the team would need it. Considering we now have Shaw as well as Erceg. His height intrigues me at 6'5" and that HR power in HS. I think there will come a point when he's mashing them in the 30s. You'd think he'd be a great defender having come out of HS as a SS. So I feel good about calling him a sleeper.

[Lathund]

EDIT: After re-reading the definitions, I can't say that my choices fit the categories all that well, but just take it for what it is.

 

Breakout: Corey Ray. Considered him as bounce back, but as a pro he doesn't really have anything to bounce back to. Whatever you want to call it, I think we'll see considerably better things from him in 2018. Or rather, with his tools and his makeup I would much rather bet on him than against him even if things haven't looked good so far. While he certainly hasn't performed anywhere close to what you want to see from the #5 overall pick, you also have to take into account the environment in Carolina. A .698 and .678 OPS looks bad, but was still a 101 and 91 wRC+ respectively at a premium defensive position. Again, that needs to get better. But as long as the speed and CF defense are there, we can afford to give him time.

I'll also mention Jean Carmona here, who I expect to have another strong showing.

Honorable mentions: Erceg, Grisham, Dubon

 

Bounceback: Jacob Nottingham. In a way he already did bounce back, but a lot of people didn't realise. They look at a .209 BA and think "bust" without giving it any further thought. Obviously, that BA needs to improve. But even looking at the overall numbers Nottingham produced a 103 wRC+ as a Catcher at a level he was 2 years young for still. He improved his walk rate by 3% and cut his strikeouts by 8%. Improved his .ISO by almost 50 points. And he did all that with a career low BABIP of 255. Getting even halfway from there to an average BABIP improves his stat line a lot. And he did this while improving behind the plate, with more runners thrown out and fewer passed balls.

Honourable mentions: Luis Ortiz

 

Bust: Brett Phillips. Now I should say that "bust" is really far too strong a term, a step back might be a better term. Phillips defense, versatility and power gives him a fairly high floor. But I think that expectations overall are a bit too high. People were low on Brinson and talked about him being "strikeout prone", but do compare his numbers to Phillips. He strikes out a lot, and a .400+ BABIP isn't sustainable, don't let last seasons numbers (In a small sample size) fool you. He has an MLB future, but his hit tool needs a lot of work for him to be an above-average starter, let alone more than that. I hope he's the last man standing in the 4th OF role this ST, and I look forward to him proving me wrong as it's a guy that's very easy to like and cheer for.

 

Sleeper: Pitchers coming back from injury. Williams, Houser, Kirby, Bickford. They don't get talked about too much, but they all have the pedigree and if they are fully recovered from their injuries could all have breakout years.

[TJseven7]

200 ip sub 4 era. Feel like he's going to sharpen one of his 3 offspeed offerings and further learn how to use them. Not calling him an ace to TOR

 

I'm continually confused about what how many "aces" or "TOR starters" people think there are in MLB. Between the Archer discussion and this comment, people are really boiling this down to pretty much Kershaw.

 

Last year, there were only 11 guys in all of MLB that had 200 IP and a sub-4 ERA. Wouldn't that, by definition, qualify as TOR?

 

Davies and Chacin were very close to 200 ip.and sub 4 era. They aren't tor guys.

[JohnBriggs12]

After watching Ponce throw a couple of innings on one of the back fields yesterday I see a huge breakout year for him. Wouldn't shock me at all to see him in a Brewer uniform in September, maybe earlier. He's got major league stuff.

[TJseven7]

After watching Ponce throw a couple of innings on one of the back fields yesterday I see a huge breakout year for him. Wouldn't shock me at all to see him in a Brewer uniform in September, maybe earlier. He's got major league stuff.

 

Would love that after the flack I caught.

[homer]

 

He's a big strong downward plane Zach Davies results (not style) starter. Better stuff, still doesn't wow but control durability play at the mlb level. 200 ip sub 4 era. Feel like he's going to sharpen one of his 3 offspeed offerings and further learn how to use them. Not calling him an ace to TOR but he's 23 in AA and I expect him to jump from teen-early 20s prospect to clear member of the rotation. That's breakout.

Davies results....huh? Ponce was at age level in A+ this past year with a 1.292 whip, 9.8 H9, 7.1 K9....at that same age Davies was starting in MLB posting 1.249 whip, 9.1 H9, 7.4 K9. Davies minor league numbers smash Ponce and did all being plenty young for level.

 

Yup he's 23... send him to the glue factory. No chance he improves. If you arent under 21 you suck. No way he can match Davies results at the mlb level. Never!!!! I mean he's 23 and not in the majors yet. Just shoot him already and stop wasting the oxygen. Great take.

 

We have a make a prediction thread so some high and mighty twit can tell others they are stupid? Very welcoming place we have here.

 

PS... despite your degree of smug in your response Davies numbers aren't much better than Ponce but hey if you say it with attitude people believe you.... so keep it up. The only stark difference is Davies started in the minors at 18 and Ponce at 21.

 

No one called you or your argument stupid. Other than the first sentence (which was unnecessary but not totally out of line) there is nothing wrong with the post.

Edit: I'm just now noticing this post is from a while back but based on your recent post about "catching flack" it is worth pointing out....you didn't catch flack.

 

In the future, if you think you are being attacked please use the report feature (the exclamation mark at the top of the offending post). It's much easier for mods to see any issues. Otherwise they get buried in threads we may not be reading.

[Mass Haas]

Journal Sentinel's Todd Rosiak on LHP Nathan Kirby

[Eye Black]

Lots of Brewers related questions in Kiley McDaniel's Fangraphs' Chat today:

 

Joe

Top Sleeper in the Brewers System?

Kiley McDaniel

He's not a sleeper per se, but we're clearly the high guys on Tristen Lutz. He's gonna blow up.

Mark

More upside as a hitter, Kingery or Hiura?

Kiley McDaniel

Hiura

Joe

Time to give up on Gilbert Lara? Speaking of $3mil international signings....

 

Kiley McDaniel

It's not going well and some were very skeptical before he signed.

Sandra

Have you ever seen Brandon woodruff in person? Can he contribute in the big leagues this year?

 

Kiley McDaniel

Yes x2

Joe

Think Corey Ray rebounds?

Kiley McDaniel

I do, but I've always had him as a low-end regular with a chance for more or a chance for very good 4th OF. Still think that's fair. Huge tools.

Friedman

More upside with the bat: Vilade, Lutz or DJ Peters?

 

Kiley McDaniel

gimme all the Lutz stock you have

[brewmann04]

thanks for sharing

[TJseven7]

More hiura #1 lutz #3 hype! But my list is at 18 and no ray yet so I'm probably too far down on him. I like stokes and grisham better... eh.