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2018 Breakout, Bounce Back, Bust, Sleeper Players


Jenkins5

Season is still far away but figured I'd get this started. I want to know who you think will be our top breakout candidates and ones you think will bounce back the most. There has been plenty of talk about Mr. Ray so I am interested where people will place him. He could easily fit into all three depending on your feeling. Hopefully, we get some lesser talked about people mentioned and explained. The way I view the three categories is:

 

Breakout: A guy who has been under the radar, had never really "arrived" yet, or due to injuries has never been able to really perform.

(Example Burns, Gatewood, Stokes, and Harrison.)

 

Bounce Back: A guy who is coming off a bad season or two or injury plagued season that you think think will regain prospect status.

(example Brett Phillips or Ponce)

 

Bust: A guy who drops way down on the prospect after this season, days numbered as real prospect here

(Tyrone Taylor and Coulter)

 

Sleeper: A guy no one talks about much at all who could start to earn discussion and find way in top 25-30

(Jordan Yamamoto)

 

Breakout

1. Tristian Lutz.

I love his profile and advanced bat for his age. Unless something goes wrong, hard to see him not open up in Midwest league. A lot to like about the kid. All those skills were well on display. His Arizona stats were a thing of beauty for a kid just jumping from high school to pro ball. 11% BB and 19% K is outstanding! Traditionally the best hitters in baseball walk 10% of the time while K'ing under 20%. I hold those numbers at a high value for prospects and that is one of the first things I check when looking at them. I guess I can mention the .226 iso, .333/.432/.559 slash line, and 139 wRC+. He got a little to aggressive at the plate in Helena where he say his ISO increase to .266 with 4 doubles, 3 triples, and 3 homers. He had 9 bombs, 5 doubles, 4 triples in only 160 ABs. His walks dropped to 6% while K's shot up to 27% in Helena. A major key to his success imo is that he keeps ball down and on a line. He held a 23% LD%, 34% GB%. When he did hit FB's 20% where HRs.

 

I fully expect him to continue to hit this season and make himself known as a major emerging prospect. Wisconsin has been tough on young hitters but think he has the right makeup and natural hit tool to excel in first full season.

 

Bounce Back

1. Jacob Nottingham.

 

Will turn 23 this season but after two let down seasons, many have labeled him in the bust category already. Easy to understand with the .209 batting average and only 9 homers for a "power bat." However after analyzing his numbers, he appears to be a big bust out candidate after his numbers really are better than they look. 1st you look at his percentages, he was able to drive up his walk total to nearly 10% which is the highest it has been since first entering rookie ball. Moreover, he dropped his k rate down to a respectable 22% from the 30 he had in year one. He said in an interview last off season that he pressed too much to try to impress Brewers and from looking at numbers that makes sense. His k's were 8-10% higher than they had been in his career, his walks and obp were way down. His pull percent was at 47% which was 10-15% higher than it had ever been. He hit 11 HRs but almost no doubles and has only a .11 iso.

 

If you look away from his awful .209 ba what do you see? A 10%/22% BB/K% is a nice start. his obp was an incredible .117 higher than his batting average! He had an ISO of .16 while hitting 21 doubles and two triples. He got back to a much better approach using the whole field by having a pull/center/oppo % of 41, 27, 32. Lastly, for how bad his batting average was...he still finished with a wRC+ of 103! So why was his batting so awful? Well two reasons from the numbers. 1) Like Diaz but even to a worse extent, bad luck.

When you are a career babip of .335 hitter and have that number bottom out to .255... that is extreme. Diaz was .275 and I thought that was bad. 2) His line drive% and GB% dropped 4% each and his FB% increased that 8% meaning he was squaring up ball very well. He may have still been driving ball well but right at people. I say this because his IFFB % was still around 20%. Line drives and GB's usually find holes easier.

 

Moreover, he appears like a future platoon option as of right now. That will hopefully change this year and he learns to hit righties. He crushes lefties hit .295 with .947 OPS 6 HRs 11 of his doubles. Against righties... .170 ave .538 ops and only 3 HRs 10 2Bs in double the ABs.

 

Bust

Marcos Diplan

 

This one one pains me to say. He had been a favorite of mine and has all the talent you look for. However, two years in pitcher heaven leagues and watching others around him like Peralta rocket ahead for him, I feel his star really drops off this year unless major changes occur. He is only 21 so very young and plenty of time to turn it around but warning signs are great. He showed in rookie and A ball he could simply get by with overpowering and being wildly effective. Much like Medorois was able to do. Now in his 2 season in A+ hitters aren't willing to chase as much and are more selective with him. That is only going to grow at each level he goes up. With little command he has seen his strong K numbers decline, hits to increase, walks to stay 10% or higher and whip to be 1.50. He falls behind the count, hitters wait until he has to come with a strike, if he does, they drive it.

 

Since going to A+ hitters are hitting .265 off him, 10% of FBs are homeruns, is only Striking out 21% of batters compare to 11% BB. His babip has been .330. Unlike Peralta who struggled with him after there call up that first time around. Diplan never adjusted or grew. He simply regressed more. I look at the numbers of other pitchers compared to him. Ponce I don't think is that great and most of the hit numbers and just are similar however Ponce is able to throw strikes and attack hitters. Peralta is only pitcher close to Marcos in terms of walks but he is unhittable. He K's over 12 per 9 while allowing hitters to only hit .170. Marcos couldn't throw strikes and was very hittable. At this point, to me, he is best high ceiling pitcher to trade. I also have hard time seeing him able to stick in rotation.

 

Sleeper

1B Gabriel Garcia

 

Not sure any prospect sub 20 has gotten less love compared to production. This kid has just produced over the past two years and been model of consistency. Combined .300/.410.500 slash line over 1st two years. Impressive 12.5% BB% and very respectable 22% K% for a teen. He increased HR's to 9 this season from 2 and hit 17 doubles to maintain his .20 ISO from Arizona at 18. 151 and 126 wRc+ the last two season. He has also stole 10 bases over the past two seasons.

 

Lastly defensive versatility. He is 6'3 185 pounds so he has a great frame. Mostly playing 1B, they have gave him 9 innings at SS, 5 innings in the OF, 5 innings at catcher, and 21 games at 3B. I am guessing he will continue to get reps at 1B/3B during his time in minors but hard not to see what the kid can do out of rookie ball! If he continues, I think by end of year he will move from a mentioned guy for top 25 into the top 25.

 

Wrap Up

All these are a little obvious and I apologize. I will be back to write up more later but as of right now it gets the discussion going.

Proud member since 2003 (geez ha I was 14 then)

 

FORMERLY BrewCrewWS2008 and YoungGeezy don't even remember other names used

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Breakout - Hiura. This one is easy, I feel like he's gonna rake like crazy this year. Kirby is a possibility here as well.

Bounce Back - I like Nottingham, but you picked him so I'll go Medeiros. He improved tremendously from 2016 to 2017, though it isn't super notable in the stats. I think he improves significantly whether he gets bounced to relief or continues to start.

Bust - I also like Diplan here, but I'll go with Stokes. I feel like he's going to level off a bit against higher level competition.

Sleeper - Chad Mcclanahan, i hope he opens in Wisconsin. He's had a couple years to work on swing mechanics, etc...hoping 2018 is a bit of a breakout for him.

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Breakout - Ray/Herrera

Bounce Back - Bickford/Diplan

Bust - Gatewood

Sleeper - Kirby

Takes A Step Back - Harrison

 

I debated back and forth over Garcia or Herrera for my sleeper pick. Herrera started to open some eyes last year and we all know him from the Lind trade but not much has been said or discussed about him. I do feel he is a kid who will take a big leap this year repeating in Wisconsin.

 

His numbers are a little strange since everything looks outstanding in Helena until you see a mid 6 FIP. Then you notice why. FIP is driven up by HRs. It is a stat made to take defensive factors away from the pitcher and what they control. The one spot that killed Herrera in Helena was an awful 18.5% Home run/FB% and giving up 2.14 HR/9. Overall, he could not get groundballs (25% only). The rest of the numbers looked promising! 30% K to 6% BB, .213 BA against, 1.00 Whip. 11 k/9 to 2 bb/9 ratio. Wisconsin was a mix bag but that is expected out of a 19 year old during a mid summer promotion. Think he will come in as their "Ace" this season along with Jaylen Rose.

 

I'm a Ray supporter and think he will right the ship this season. Getting out of Carolina/BC will make that easier.

 

I hope Kirby can stay healthy and show something. He is already 24 and has yet to really be able to pitch much. I remember watching him in the College World Series Tourney and he was electric. Hope he is able to come back!

Proud member since 2003 (geez ha I was 14 then)

 

FORMERLY BrewCrewWS2008 and YoungGeezy don't even remember other names used

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Breakout - Ray/Herrera

Bounce Back - Bickford/Diplan

Bust - Gatewood

Sleeper - Kirby

Takes A Step Back - Harrison

 

I debated back and forth over Garcia or Herrera for my sleeper pick. Herrera started to open some eyes last year and we all know him from the Lind trade but not much has been said or discussed about him. I do feel he is a kid who will take a big leap this year repeating in Wisconsin.

 

His numbers are a little strange since everything looks outstanding in Helena until you see a mid 6 FIP. Then you notice why. FIP is driven up by HRs. It is a stat made to take defensive factors away from the pitcher and what they control. The one spot that killed Herrera in Helena was an awful 18.5% Home run/FB% and giving up 2.14 HR/9. Overall, he could not get groundballs (25% only). The rest of the numbers looked promising! 30% K to 6% BB, .213 BA against, 1.00 Whip. 11 k/9 to 2 bb/9 ratio. Wisconsin was a mix bag but that is expected out of a 19 year old during a mid summer promotion. Think he will come in as their "Ace" this season along with Jaylen Rose.

 

I'm a Ray supporter and think he will right the ship this season. Getting out of Carolina/BC will make that easier.

 

I hope Kirby can stay healthy and show something. He is already 24 and has yet to really be able to pitch much. I remember watching him in the College World Series Tourney and he was electric. Hope he is able to come back!

 

I personally am far less concerned with statistical performance at Helena/Wisconsin, and much more concerned with development/stuff. Looking at FIP and such doesn't do much for me at such low levels. K rates and BB rates can help to some degree, but Jon Perrin put up gaudy numbers in Wisconsin and is a soft tossing RH pitcher. So even those numbers come with a grain of salt.

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Breakout: Grisham (Clark) - Finished his mechanical changes and help a high OBP through all of it showing disclipline of the zone. Now will get back to just hitting the ball like he did in high school.

 

Bounce Back: Diaz - I know it is not a big shock or anything or huge bounce back but I’m going with Diaz. I think leaving Carolina will be huge for him. Also love the Nottingham pick

 

Bust: Gatewood - Will continue further down the no contact path.

 

Sleeper: Feliciano - Catcher so the numbers wont jump at the plate. But will get better and prove he can handle it behind the dish. Also like Pennington here.

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I'm expecting big years from Clark and Ray. Not sure I should be, but that's what I'm expecting. Getting out of Carolina will hopefully do wonders for both.

 

Breakout: Clark

Bounce Back: Ray

Bust: Erceg-I just don't see it with him. Hope to be wrong

Sleeper: Herrera. That Lind trade has potential to be a Godsend.

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Breakout: Trey Supak (I suspect he will begin the season in Carolina but end the season in Colorado Springs or Milwaukee)..

Bounce Back: Isan Diaz (I feel he has better rebound potential then some others). Really wish I could write Jorge Lopez here, but I need to be realistic.

Bust: Ray (if he is still on any top 100 lists going into 2018, he will be removed from them by the mid-season updates).

Sleeper: Carlos Herrera. (Agree with previous comment about Lind trade becoming a godsend in retrospect.)

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Breakout: Braden Webb

Took two months to adjust to pro ball, but posted OPS-A of .607 in June, .586 in July, and .656 in August. Had better peripherals (higher K/9, lower BB/9 and H/9, similar HR/9) than Zack Brown who was promoted in-season to Carolina; also had weird reverse-splits (.731 OPS-A vs RHB, but .637 OPS-A vs LHB). 2017 was his first season after being shut down after being drafted in 2016. Remember, the Brewers drafted him a round before Burnes. He's the one guy I should have looked closer at his stats and ranked higher in the poll. 2nd place: Lucas Erceg - rough start, but strong 2nd half showing lots of improvement.

 

Bounce back: Adrian Houser

Pitched great in limited innings at the end of the year, but coaches said he came back with a much more aggressive, attacking demeanor. He was in the majors at age 22; the talent is there, the only question is the injury rehab. 2nd: Phil Bickford - nowhere to go but up.

 

Bust: Corey Ray

I don't want to write that in any way, shape or form. But no improvement, if not a step back, after repeating the same level and an unimpressive performance in the AFL. There is just no evidence to suggest he is improving. 2nd: Jacob Nottingham - strong start last year, but faded. (Note: I don't think either will "bust"; I just think they won't progress, but will be given a couple more years to develop.)

 

Sleeper: Drake Owenby

Was pitching very well in 2016 before getting injured, and came back strong after starting the season on the DL. A smallish sample, but 11.5 K/9, 4.80 K/BB, 6.5 H/9 at Wisconsin. Don't know if he can start, but potential lefty bullpen piece. 2nd: Michele Vassalotti - 4.00 K/BB, 5.4 H/9 from a 16-year-old in DOSL.

 

Step back: Bubba Derby

Not going to maintain the 2.1% HR/FB he did at AA last year, and had a 4.60 FIP/4.85 xFIP at AAA. 2nd: whoever of the AA pitchers gets sent to Colorado Springs (Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Perrin, etc.)

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Breakout: Zack Brown

I'm pretty sure I chose him last year, too, but the reduces walk rate to end the year in Carolina has me hoping he puts together a Woodruff-like second full season. 2nd choice: Braden Webb - Less experienced than most college pitchers and had a rocky start, but he had a strong close to the season as well.

 

Bounce back: Isan Diaz

Seems like the obvious choice. Keeping the scouts from losing faith during a poor statistical season is a good indication of a bounce-back candidate. 2nd choice: Chad McClanahan - More talent than he showed last season.

 

Bust: Phil Bickford

The more time passes, the less confident I am in him. At the very least, I'm guessing he's in the bullpen by year end. 2nd choice: KJ Harrison - I think he'll hit at Wisconsin, but I'm skeptical that the transition back to catcher goes smoothly.

 

Sleeper: Josh Pennington

This might be too obvious of one for a sleeper, but pitched well when healthy and has a chance to shine at Wisconsin and Carolina next season. 2nd choice: Zach Clark - The strikeouts are a big issue, but the tools also shown through. This might be more hopeful than realistic, but has a better chance to make a legitimate big league impact than most of the other guys who didn't earn a mention in the Fangraphs article.

 

Deep sleeper (because Pennington might be too obvious): Wendell Rijo

Still pretty young, was once a top 20 prospect for the Red Sox and was actually pretty solid while in Carolina last season. Longshot, but I'm not writing him off. 2nd choice: Preston Gainey - Too many walks and too many injuries, but man those strikeouts are intriguing.

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Breakout

OF Trent Clark/Grisham

The walk rate is very good, he has improved power, he has speed. He was healthy for the first time in 2017.

Runners Up: 3B Lucas Erceg, C KJ Harrison, OF Tristan Lutz

 

Bounce Back

1B Ronnie Gideon

Huge numbers in Helena last year, but had his first full-season of pro ball. Did have flashes in 2017, so I think that after adjustments, he could rebound back to a power prospect.

Runners Up: RHP Jon Perrin, RHP Cody Ponce

 

Sleepers

1B Ernest Wilson Martinez and OF Jay Feliciano

Martinez is a first baseman, had a very good walk rate, and he flashed power. Hasn't made the US yet, but was here for instructionals. Jay Feliciano is a corner OF who had 13 HR in 63 games at Helena.

Runners Up: UT Weston Wilson, C/IF Gabriel Garcia, RHP Jordan Yamamoto

 

Bust

RHP Phil Bickford

The drug tests raise a huge question about his judgment.

Runners Up: C Jacob Nottingham, OF Demi Orimoloye,

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Breakout: Bubba Derby - I think he establishes himself as a solid potential rotation piece this year. While his ultimate future may be in the bullpen, I don't think the results he posted last year can be taken for granted.

 

Bounce Back: Bickford and Nottingham - Its time for these once highly thought-of trade acquisitions to put up numbers that their talent levels call for. Bickford was a 1st round pick and the top prospect in the Giants' system for a reason. Nottingham showed some signs of future potential last year, and will likely be starting at Colorado Springs as a 23-year-old this year. If he can't put up numbers there, who knows.

 

Sleeper: Troy Stokes - I think he starts at AAA this year, and proves to be an energetic table-setter with good power.

 

Bust: Freddy Peralta - I guess I just don't see it with him. I hope I'm wrong, but he just doesn't seem like anything special.

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Breakout - Ponce... Burnes will not be the only farm hand starting in MKE down the stretch. Pitch use and pitches in general sharpen and he flies to the bigs. Sub 2.75 era in minors. Passes Woodruff in the eyes of mke fans along the way. Also like Lutz & Webb. Kodi fits here, bounce back and sleeper as well. His drop in the post season poll was probably due to my no ballot. I think he goes loogey though.

 

Bounce back - Diaz... And you can pick a few other A+ guys too. OPS north of 900 ends the season as the undisputed #1 prospect in the system. Hope Bickford and Houser work here as well.

 

Sleeper - Cam Roegner... closed last season very strong. Huge lefty, late bloomer, comes together for the entire year and hits top 30 although old for carolina where he ends the year. Starts 2018 in AA. Like Garcia as well. Webb fits here too despite his high draft slot.

 

Bust - Diplan out of the top 30 everywhere by years end.

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Ponce is a guy that worries me with his lack of Ks a bit. I get groundball pitcher but he’s a big strong velocity guy. He pitches to contact & is hittable as well. If he can learn start to miss bats more this year he could shoot up. If not, I think he stays with next Tier back end guy.

Proud member since 2003 (geez ha I was 14 then)

 

FORMERLY BrewCrewWS2008 and YoungGeezy don't even remember other names used

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Ponce is a guy that worries me with his lack of Ks a bit. I get groundball pitcher but he’s a big strong velocity guy. He pitches to contact & is hittable as well. If he can learn start to miss bats more this year he could shoot up. If not, I think he stays with next Tier back end guy.

 

He's a big strong downward plane Zach Davies results (not style) starter. Better stuff, still doesn't wow but control durability play at the mlb level. 200 ip sub 4 era. Feel like he's going to sharpen one of his 3 offspeed offerings and further learn how to use them. Not calling him an ace to TOR but he's 23 in AA and I expect him to jump from teen-early 20s prospect to clear member of the rotation. That's breakout.

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Ponce is a guy that worries me with his lack of Ks a bit. I get groundball pitcher but he’s a big strong velocity guy. He pitches to contact & is hittable as well. If he can learn start to miss bats more this year he could shoot up. If not, I think he stays with next Tier back end guy.

Regarding the velocity, on Baseball America’s Brewers prospect podcast released earlier today they mentioned that they had Ponce working 90-93 MPH with his fastball in Carolina this year, and they didn’t record any pitches above 93 MPH.

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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Ponce is a guy that worries me with his lack of Ks a bit. I get groundball pitcher but he’s a big strong velocity guy. He pitches to contact & is hittable as well. If he can learn start to miss bats more this year he could shoot up. If not, I think he stays with next Tier back end guy.

Regarding the velocity, on Baseball America’s Brewers prospect podcast released earlier today they mentioned that they had Ponce working 90-93 MPH with his fastball in Carolina this year, and they didn’t record any pitches above 93 MPH.

 

Wonder if he’s using more of a two seam fastball to help ground balls. I remember two years ago in instructs he was hitting 97-98 working 94 according to reports. Can’t remember his name but he is always scouting down in Arizona & tweeting the reports. He was raving on Ponce before injuries.

Proud member since 2003 (geez ha I was 14 then)

 

FORMERLY BrewCrewWS2008 and YoungGeezy don't even remember other names used

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Breakout:

Pitcher Adrian Houser - My hope for Houser is that he is transformed into a reliever that ends up making an impact at the major league level by mid-season. It seems he possesses the ingredients to excel in a middle inning relief role. As we are seeing this offseason that is a role which is currently valued across the industry.

 

Bounce Back:

Pitcher Luis Ortiz - I don’t know if his 2017 was considered bad necessarily, but I get the feeling some people have soured on Ortiz. I think that’s a mistake. Ortiz has never been less than 3 years younger than average for his level throughout his minor league career. Now at 21 years old I think he is on the cusp of really putting things together as he develops a repertoire of pitches establishing a no doubt starter profile. My expectations for Ortiz are lofty, but I think even with the potential of facing a tough pitching environment in 2018 he will show signs of solidifying himself as a future major league mid-rotation starter.

 

Bust:

Outfielder Trent Grisham - I will preface with the fact that I’ll be ecstatic to be wrong. I know his OBP remains strong for someone who experienced trouble at the plate. I know he was in a tough hitters environment for his home park. My concerns with his performance are two-fold. First, he appeared lackadaisical at times in the field. I am concerned that he may not have the instincts to be a major league center fielder, and a move to a corner outfield spot puts a lot of pressure on his bat to produce. My second concern is how easily he loses his balance on his swing. He had at-bats where he basically corkscrewed himself around in a circle and tipped over on his swing. At times it looked like he was swinging with ice skates on. Again, I hope I am wrong, but I think this will be an important year for his development.

 

Sleeper:

Shortstop Antonio Pinero - Based on the defensive profile (plus, plus glove according to Baseball America) for an 18 year old he may already have the floor of being a major league caliber defender. If he can develop into even a below average hitter he has a good chance to eventually contribute at the major league level.

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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Ponce is a guy that worries me with his lack of Ks a bit. I get groundball pitcher but he’s a big strong velocity guy. He pitches to contact & is hittable as well. If he can learn start to miss bats more this year he could shoot up. If not, I think he stays with next Tier back end guy.

 

He's a big strong downward plane Zach Davies results (not style) starter. Better stuff, still doesn't wow but control durability play at the mlb level. 200 ip sub 4 era. Feel like he's going to sharpen one of his 3 offspeed offerings and further learn how to use them. Not calling him an ace to TOR but he's 23 in AA and I expect him to jump from teen-early 20s prospect to clear member of the rotation. That's breakout.

Davies results....huh? Ponce was at age level in A+ this past year with a 1.292 whip, 9.8 H9, 7.1 K9....at that same age Davies was starting in MLB posting 1.249 whip, 9.1 H9, 7.4 K9. Davies minor league numbers smash Ponce and did all being plenty young for level.

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Bounce Back:

Pitcher Luis Ortiz - I don’t know if his 2017 was considered bad necessarily, but I get the feeling some people have soured on Ortiz. I think that’s a mistake. Ortiz has never been less than 3 years younger than average for his level throughout his minor league career. Now at 21 years old I think he is on the cusp of really putting things together as he develops a repertoire of pitches establishing a no doubt starter profile. My expectations for Ortiz are lofty, but I think even with the potential of facing a tough pitching environment in 2018 he will show signs of solidifying himself as a future major league mid-rotation starter.

 

It's his K rate that concerns some people, at least that's my concern. It's rare to see someone make it as an effective MLB SP with a rather low k rate in the minors. Right or wrong, that's usually the first thing I look at when looking at stats for a MiLB pitcher. Not saying it's everything of course, just most important to me.

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200 ip sub 4 era. Feel like he's going to sharpen one of his 3 offspeed offerings and further learn how to use them. Not calling him an ace to TOR

 

I'm continually confused about what how many "aces" or "TOR starters" people think there are in MLB. Between the Archer discussion and this comment, people are really boiling this down to pretty much Kershaw.

 

Last year, there were only 11 guys in all of MLB that had 200 IP and a sub-4 ERA. Wouldn't that, by definition, qualify as TOR?

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Yea, those definitions mean different things to different people. To me, an Ace means dominance. And there's even less than of those. TOR? Top of who's rotation? I guess I see it as a pitcher you would be very comfortable throwing out on the mound in a post-season game. I don't really like the term, but I get what people mean by it (generally) so it's fine. As an example, I would say Nelson and Anderson were TOR pitchers in 2017.
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