Thames to NYY? (speculation)

[SRB]

This is not based on anything but my own imagination, but does anyone else think Stearns would consider dealing Thames to New York?

 

Advantages for NYY:

-They have a massive hole at 1B/DH right now and there aren't in a position to sign a big free agent this offseason given luxury tax considerations after the addition of Stanton. The free agent class for 2019 at 1B is incredibly weak. Do they really want to roll with Greg Bird?

 

-Thames is cheap and thus presents a solid 1B/DH option without adding significantly to their creaking payroll.

 

-Thames is another huge power threat in that stadium, and the ability to split time at DH would do nothing but help his offense.

 

Advantages for MIL:

-Trading Thames would allow us to experiment with Domingo Santana at 1B, opening up everyday outfield spots for both Phillips and Brinson (with Broxton in the mix as well and Braun solidly installed in LF). Ideally they would have done this with Khris Davis, but for whatever reason he wasn't capable of handling 1B. Santana is a much better athlete, despite his poor defensive marks so far in the outfield, and I think he could be a plus defender at 1B. This entire trade scenario would be dependent on Santana-to-1B being feasible.

 

-The Yankees have a very deep far system that is stacked with pitching. We might not get a 2018-ready SP in return for Thames, but there are a lot of high-upside arms to choose from in a deal. I think Thames is worth a solid return given his cheap contract.

 

-I love Thames, but he's already into his 30s and is not likely a long-term piece for us. The Yankees have to be in immediate win-now mode while they still have peak Stanton and are not burdened by the latter years of his massive contract. Thames is a win-now piece for them in 2018-2020.

[clancyphile]

The Crew does have Jesus Aguilar as a 1B option as well...

 

For Thames:

LHP Justus Sheffield

OF/2B Nick Solak

OF Jake Cave

[brewmann04]

I be happy if we get two pitchers back

[JohnBriggs12]

I wouldn't say they have a massive hole at 1B/DH. A year ago Bird was probably more hyped than Judge and they are still high on him. As for DH, they now have 2 RF, Stanton and Judge. I'm sure they'll find a guy to DH.

[Humans Need Water]

Braun nor Santana are moving to 1b. It takes a hell of a lot more than being a halfway decent athlete to handle that position. The average person thinks most anybody can play there and they're flat out wrong.

 

i don't think trading Thames makes sense at this point. I think Aguilar ends up being traded to an AL team down the road and Brewers keep Thames until they have a 3b that forces Shaw over to 1b. He's too productive and cheap to move right now, especially since we don't have a logjam there (or at the corners).

[MadThinker88]

The Crew does have Jesus Aguilar as a 1B option as well...

 

For Thames:

LHP Justus Sheffield

OF/2B Nick Solak

OF Jake Cave

 

So a top 100 pitcher (possible top 50 when the updates are done after his performance in the AFL) in Sheffield PLUS two others.

 

Not a chance. Yanks say no at Sheffield alone.

[NievesNoNO]

I'm not sure Greg Bird won't out hit Thames this season, but I'd agree Thames does have value because of his contract and decent production from the left side. He's kind of proven to be a platoon bat at this point.

 

I'm not sure moving Santana is something that would work, but I see the potential value in this scenario.

 

I really like the Thames/Aguilar situation the Brewers have for this season again, though if the Yankees offered up Chance Adams I'd be interested.

[jerichoholicninja]

Bird is their man at 1B. OF and DH are set. There's nothing here.

[SRB]

It's possible that they are perfectly happy with Bird at 1B, but I'm not entirely sure about that. He's essentially a rookie and he's coming off a major injury. If the Brewers were in win-now mode would they have settled for Mat Gamel as their starting 1B? On the other hand, Thames does carry some risk as well.

 

As for DH, it's unclear to me how that is "set" when you're looking at an aging Gardner or Ellsbury getting most of those AB. Those are pretty poor DH options once you take them off the field, and obviously Stanton and Judge are not going to DH very frequently (why would they?)

[Eye Black]

If the Brewers decide to move Thames there is another Santana that could be a solid (albeit more expensive) 1B option.

[jerichoholicninja]

It's possible that they are perfectly happy with Bird at 1B, but I'm not entirely sure about that. He's essentially a rookie and he's coming off a major injury. If the Brewers were in win-now mode would they have settled for Mat Gamel as their starting 1B? On the other hand, Thames does carry some risk as well.

 

As for DH, it's unclear to me how that is "set" when you're looking at an aging Gardner or Ellsbury getting most of those AB. Those are pretty poor DH options once you take them off the field, and obviously Stanton and Judge are not going to DH very frequently (why would they?)

 

Bird had a .891 regular season OPS after he came back from his injury and .938 OPS in the playoffs. His health seems fine. From what I've read Sanchez is set to see a lot of time at DH. The OF is Stanton, Judge, Hicks, Ellsbury, and Gardner. One of those five is almost certainly going to DH when Sanchez isn't. If they're really concerned about 1B and/or DH they could just get a much better and proven hitter in Carlos Santana.

[bill hAll Star]

As for DH, it's unclear to me how that is "set" when you're looking at an aging Gardner or Ellsbury getting most of those AB. Those are pretty poor DH options once you take them off the field, and obviously Stanton and Judge are not going to DH very frequently (why would they?)

 

Roughly...

 

LF - Gardner 60%/Judge 20%/Hicks 20% (Hicks against LHP)

CF - Ellsbury 50%/Hicks 30%/Gardner 20% (again Hicks against LHP mostly)

RF - Stanton 50%/Judge 50%

DH - Stanton 50%/Judge 30%/Sanchez 10%/Others 10%

 

Gardner has heavy splits and hits righties very well (.760 career but .800+ since he’s “come of age” of late)

Aaron Hicks crushes lefties.

Ellsbury is still going to have to play and isn’t terrible.

 

Stanton is terrible at OF. He’d be fine in the tiny RF at Yankee Stadium but he should DH a lot.

 

They have a loaded OF/DH situation. Absolutely loaded with good platoon sets.

 

 

1B is a bit of a question but they like Bird. That’s 75% of the ABs if he can run with it.

 

They also have Clint Frazier in the mix and maybe Fowler the following year if his leg heals.

[SRB]

There's no way Stanton and Judge are going to see significant time at DH. Judge is viewed as a plus defender and has started 10 games at DH and 165 games in the OF during his Yankees career. I don't think very many people consider Stanton "terrible" in the outfield (he will presumably move to LF in favor of Judge's arm), and in any event he is absolutely not going to let them take him off the field when he is the reigning NL MVP and is potentially still playing for another huge pay day in a few years.

 

You've got the 2017 NL MVP and the 2017 AL almost-MVP. They're going to be starting every single game in the outfield unless they get injured.

 

They have decent enough options to fill DH with Gardner/Ellsbury/Hicks/Frazier all in the mix, but the question if whether they want an upgrade in the first of several win-now seasons.

[bill hAll Star]

I can see Stanton wanting to be on the field for defense more than he should, but I think this is a real stretch to create a Yankee “weakness” and opportunity for the Brewers.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Am I the only one that’s kinda sick of hearing “we should move (random outfielder) to first base?

[SRB]

Am I the only one that’s kinda sick of hearing “we should move (random outfielder) to first base?

 

Crazy for a team to consider moving an unusually tall, plus athlete who is a poor defender in the outfield to 1B when we have a logjam of too many outfielders, I know.

[Boomer5]

What value does Thames have?

[Eye Black]

What value does Thames have?

Not an exact science, but one approach you can use to determine a player's Surplus Value is using the Google Doc spreadsheet found at this link: Evaluating Trade Rumors: MLB surplus value calculator for 2018.

 

I added Thames salary over each of the next three years (including the team option year) and projected his next three seasons at 2.0 WAR, 1.5 WAR, and 1.0 WAR. That led to a total Discounted Surplus Value of $31 million remaining with his current contract. Assuming he performs closer to his current projections for 2018 and loses half a win each year (1.5 WAR, 1.0 WAR, 0.5 WAR) the Discounted Surplus Value drops in half to about $15 million.

 

Obviously that is some rough math, but the contract helps maintain good value even at modest future projections.

[Jenkins5]

Am I the only one that’s kinda sick of hearing “we should move (random outfielder) to first base?

 

Crazy for a team to consider moving an unusually tall, plus athlete who is a poor defender in the outfield to 1B when we have a logjam of too many outfielders, I know.

 

Most OF's have been OFs for most of their lives. You can't naturally go from never fielding ground balls your entire life to doing it everyday. I think it is easier to be an infielder and move to OF than it is an OF going to the infield. Like it has been said, it is more than just being tall and catching a ball. First base takes a lot of work.

 

Catchers can do it because they are use to receiving pitches coming at them 85 to 100 mph hour (plenty of SS/3Bs have cannons) and they are use to blocking and fielding balls in dirt. Plus many grew up with 1B as their other main position.

 

3Bs can do it often because it is similar to fielding the ball in the hot corner. Footwork and receiving balls is most challenging aspect of it. You look at Jake Gatewood. Has always been a very good fielder at SS and 3B but had ton of errors at 1b. A lot were missed catches. Again this isn't HS where most infielders are throw 70-80 across the diamond. You are adjusting to ball being thrown max effort across infield over 90 mph not on the money. You have to learn to adjust to throws going all over while staying on the base.

 

Santana was signed as an OF at 16, prior to that he was showcasing as an OF. I highly doubt he has even fielded a ball in real life action. Wore a 1B glove. Had to catch a spinning 94mph ball off balanced from Arcia. But he is tall so, he will be fine

 

Braun now grew up playing infield for first 24 years of his life. He would adjust easier, however.....he has made it very clear how much he hated 3B. At 1B he no no longer has to worry too much about throws but still not sure he'd be a fan of it. He'd be worth trying there but the Brewers have refused to do so for years no matter how many times they have been questioned about it. It'd keep him healthier probably.

 

Overall the idea that just because you are tall means you can play 1B is kind of a joke to me. It is a whole new world if you have never played IF before. Solution is for MLB to stop being dumb and let NL get a DH. With all the crossover now, it doesn't even matter. The leagues are barely separate these days. Time to stop living in past, putting our pitchers in danger of injuries, and giving NL a disadvantage at bringing in top offensive talent. Nelson proves the danger of pitchers hitting. Different argument for a different day though

[Eye Black]

Santana was signed as an OF at 16, prior to that he was showcasing as an OF. I highly doubt he has even fielded a ball in real life action. Wore a 1B glove. Had to catch a spinning 94mph ball off balanced from Arcia. But he is tall so, he will be fine

 

[Jenkins5]

Santana was signed as an OF at 16, prior to that he was showcasing as an OF. I highly doubt he has even fielded a ball in real life action. Wore a 1B glove. Had to catch a spinning 94mph ball off balanced from Arcia. But he is tall so, he will be fine

 

 

Lol that popped in my head when I was typing but the coach with him was right and once again he was a catcher. Catchers to me often transition easiest to 1b. It is their default 2nd position usually.

[Humans Need Water]

Am I the only one that’s kinda sick of hearing “we should move (random outfielder) to first base?

 

Crazy for a team to consider moving an unusually tall, plus athlete who is a poor defender in the outfield to 1B when we have a logjam of too many outfielders, I know.

Except Santana's not a poor defender nor do you have the slightest clue how challenging 1b actually is. You have a little league mentality - anybody can play 1b how difficult could it be all you're doing is playing catch, right? And height isn't a prerequisite for being a good 1b either

[Boomer5]

What value does Thames have?

Not an exact science, but one approach you can use to determine a player's Surplus Value is using the Google Doc spreadsheet found at this link: Evaluating Trade Rumors: MLB surplus value calculator for 2018.

 

I added Thames salary over each of the next three years (including the team option year) and projected his next three seasons at 2.0 WAR, 1.5 WAR, and 1.0 WAR. That led to a total Discounted Surplus Value of $31 million remaining with his current contract. Assuming he performs closer to his current projections for 2018 and loses half a win each year (1.5 WAR, 1.0 WAR, 0.5 WAR) the Discounted Surplus Value drops in half to about $15 million.

 

Obviously that is some rough math, but the contract helps maintain good value even at modest future projections.

 

If he can be a 2 WAR player going forward, he is worth more to us than to most anyone else. I think most teams will look at his WAR and subtract his April to normalize his value.

 

I love the surplus calculations but the question is which Thames does the market see in 2018?

[SRB]

Neither I nor anybody else on this forum needs a lecture on how players cannot automatically transfer to 1B with ease. The entire premise of my trade scenario was if the Brewers think Santana to 1B makes any sense whatsoever. Some players can't make that switch, including Khris Davis.

 

But anyone who follows major league baseball closely would also be aware that the OF to 1B transition is among the most common positional change in the majors. Among the many former outfielders who transitioned to 1B in the middle of their professional careers: Eric Thames!

[Devinep]

Let us not forget pops from Major League 3!