Significant interest in Santana, other Brewers OF

[MadThinker88]

I'm not trying to say Santana for him but I'm a little surprised Joe Panik has not been mentioned.

He is in his arbitration years so salary is not too high.

Mainly has hit 2nd in the order but has played a little at leadoff.

Solid average and OBP hitter along with solid D at 2nd base. Hits above his average at Miller Park (could it be the park or the pitchers he is facing, probably a little of both).

 

Again, not suggesting a 1 for 1 deal of D Santana for Joe Panik but Panik might be the beginning of a solid trade package.

[trwi7]

Panik? What the hell is with everybody thinking we need every crap slap hitting 2nd baseman in the world on this team?

[KeithStone53151]

If the Brewers are "getting hits" and (reporting this news), it tells me the Brewers are letting everyone know that our OF's are for sale. This would also seem like the "Brewers" are trying to undo the logjam at OF and are the one's being proactive.

 

No doubt. You can tell me all about how injuries will happen and not all prospects turn out, but you can't just sit on Braun/Santana/Brinson/Phillips/Broxton/(and maybe Thames partially).

 

You gotta get rid of someone and not waste away value.

 

I think most agree with that, and that gives no mention to the handful of guys 1-2 years away. SF can have all the interest they want in Santana I just don't think they can get him. Santana is rightfully going to have a sky high price tag.

 

I hope the interest being discussed is widespread, puts Stearns in a position of strength when determining who to deal. Not only does a team who wants X player have to be the highest bidding team, they have to beat the potential surplus value we might be getting on a different outfielder. I hope he goes the simple route and finds a good deal for broxton, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if he gets a "can't say no" offer on someone else.

[TJseven7]

Sf just missed stanton... let it be braun! Apples and Oranges I know but come on!

[markedman5]

Braun has already said that the Dodgers are the only team he would consider approving a trade to. Maybe we could stop the speculation on him to other teams......just a thought.

[TJseven7]

Let me dream... in stearns we trust

[Lathund]

I could see the Giants potentially being interested in all the Brewers OFs. But Braun is unlikely due to the 10/5 status.

 

Anyway, it all comes down to what they're offering. Santana is really good (I don't think we'll see him have a much better season than the one he already did, but even an above-average regular is very good and valuable to have) but I think that we have enough outfield potential 5-tool prospects (Nothing is guaranteed with any of them obv, but there's a bunch of them and the ceiling is high) that he's nowhere near untouchable. Roster crunch means that some OFs needs to be moved in the near(ish) future, and to me it makes sense to move the one who will have the biggest return. To get a significant return for any one of Brinson, Harrison or the likes it's only as part of a larger package, whereas Santana alone can return a lot more.

[JohnBriggs12]

Panik? What the hell is with everybody thinking we need every crap slap hitting 2nd baseman in the world on this team?

 

You do realize that Panik is considered one of the best all around 2B in baseball? Not only has he been an All Star (2015), but he's won a Gold Glove, owns a career .282 BA, a career .345 OBP, and a .439 career slugging percentage away from spacious A T & T Park, but he's one of the toughest to strike out in all of baseball. He's also controllable through 2020.

 

Heck a straight up deal Santana for Panik is not a horrible deal at all. If they include Samardzija, I'd say it's a win for the Brewers. Brewers can find a veteran corner OF bat in FA to fall back on if Brinson's not quite ready, but Brinson is the centerpiece of the rebuild and is being counted on to deliver sooner rather than later, and Phillips showed down the stretch he may well be ready now for everyday duty.

[KeithStone53151]

Panik? What the hell is with everybody thinking we need every crap slap hitting 2nd baseman in the world on this team?

 

You do realize that Panik is considered one of the best all around 2B in baseball? Not only has he been an All Star (2015), but he's won a Gold Glove, owns a career .282 BA, a career .345 OBP, and a .439 career slugging percentage away from spacious A T & T Park, but he's one of the toughest to strike out in all of baseball. He's also controllable through 2020.

 

Heck a straight up deal Santana for Panik is not a horrible deal at all. If they include Samardzija, I'd say it's a win for the Brewers. Brewers can find a veteran corner OF bat in FA to fall back on if Brinson's not quite ready, but Brinson is the centerpiece of the rebuild and is being counted on to deliver sooner rather than later, and Phillips showed down the stretch he may well be ready now for everyday duty.

 

I agree panik is a good player, but Santana is far more valuable. A 1 for 1 deal is unlikely. A high end 2b doesn't even sniff the value of a stud RF. Look no further than the free agent market. Walker is a very good 2b and projects to get like 3/36. Bruce and Martinez are seeking 100m+. They might not get it, but the difference in value is clear. The giants would obviously need to send us major league talent to get Santana, but I still don't think it's happening.

[JohnBriggs12]

Panik? What the hell is with everybody thinking we need every crap slap hitting 2nd baseman in the world on this team?

 

You do realize that Panik is considered one of the best all around 2B in baseball? Not only has he been an All Star (2015), but he's won a Gold Glove, owns a career .282 BA, a career .345 OBP, and a .439 career slugging percentage away from spacious A T & T Park, but he's one of the toughest to strike out in all of baseball. He's also controllable through 2020.

 

Heck a straight up deal Santana for Panik is not a horrible deal at all. If they include Samardzija, I'd say it's a win for the Brewers. Brewers can find a veteran corner OF bat in FA to fall back on if Brinson's not quite ready, but Brinson is the centerpiece of the rebuild and is being counted on to deliver sooner rather than later, and Phillips showed down the stretch he may well be ready now for everyday duty.

 

I agree panik is a good player, but Santana is far more valuable. A 1 for 1 deal is unlikely. A high end 2b doesn't even sniff the value of a stud RF. Look no further than the free agent market. Walker is a very good 2b and projects to get like 3/36. Bruce and Martinez are seeking 100m+. They might not get it, but the difference in value is clear. The giants would obviously need to send us major league talent to get Santana, but I still don't think it's happening.

 

Santana is a very good bat, though stud is a stretch, but he's a negative defensively in a different way than Khris Davis, but it affects their value. We all know the return on Davis was less than eye-popping. The other guy out there who'd available via trade is Avisail Garcia and the Brewers are in better position to land him than are many other teams. Point is dealing Santana doesn't mean the Brewers can't fill his spot with another very good bat. Garcia has 2 less years of control, but he's close in age, and a Venezuelan who'd fit right in with the likes of Arcia and Perez.

 

Trades aren't made in a vacuum.

[wallus]

Panik for Broxton is the trade to be made here. Panik hit very poorly at home and would benefit a lot from playing in Miller Park.

[Warning Track Power]

Panik for Broxton is the trade to be made here. Panik hit very poorly at home and would benefit a lot from playing in Miller Park.

If Broxton would get the Brewers Panik, count me in. I would even give throw in Villar to replace Panik.

[JosephC]

I like Santana and see him continuing what he did in 2017. But he's always had a pretty high strikeout rate and the questionable defense will drag down the overall value he brings to a club. It's possible he hit his peak value last year. Projection sites listed at Fangraphs are only forecasting Santana to be a 1.7 WAR player in 2018 with a .257/.352/.470/.822 (28 HR) slash line. Normally I think a slash line like that would represent higher value, but again the bad defense will likely drag down his overall value. Last year he was a 3.4 WAR player, and if the Brewers can get that type of return for him I would definitely consider trading him.

 

I'm not going to type out all the math but if Santana is a 3.4 WAR player over each of the next four seasons his overall value would be 140.96 million dollars and I would estimate he'll earn 31.4 million dollars, so he would have a surplus value of approximately 109.56 million assuming he keeps performing at his 2017 level.

 

When the Stanton to the Giants rumors were flying I went back through the last few Baseball America Prospect Handbooks and read about some of the involved prospects again. Tyler Beede is a pitcher that has posted some mediocre numbers but is a player that should not be ignored. The Giants have constantly been re-working his delivery and repertoire, and he finally may be to the point where he will put it all together.

 

Joe Panik has been an average 2.3 WAR player over the last three seasons and if he maintains that over the next three seasons his overall value is 67.74 million. I'd estimate his earnings to be 16.9 million over that timeframe so I have him as having 50.84 million in surplus value.

 

Hunter Strickland has been an average 1.1 WAR player over the last three seasons and if he maintains that over the next four seasons his overall value would be 44.94 million. I'd estimate his earnings to be 17.1 million over that timeframe (he's a super two) so I have him as having 27.84 million in surplus value.

 

I've already talked about Tyler Beede. He's a former top 100 that I would slot between top 100 and "top 10 organizational prospect" value which would put his surplus value at 13.74 million.

 

Heliot Ramos is solid "top 10 organizational prospect" material which would put his surplus value at 11.45 million.

 

Santana (valued at 3.4 WAR over the next four seasons) = 109.56 million

Panik (50.84 million) + Strickland (27.84 million) + Beede (13.74 million) + Ramos (11.45 million) = 103.87 million

 

I'd do that deal and it's a fair deal if the Giants believe Santana will keep on doing what he has been doing. Note that even if Santana is devalued because the Giant's don't necessarily believe the 3.4 WAR is sustainable, much of Joe Panik's 3 year value came from his 2015 season where he was a 3.7 WAR value. In 2016-2017 the average WAR was only 1.6 and the lower number could very well be a better projection for Panik moving forward. So when doing the math above, I used the high estimates for both sides.

 

I would have a hard time turning down a package like this if the Giants were to agree to it. Losing four years of Santana would definitely hurt and be a setback. But if Beede turns into just a number 3 starter then this deal could be a clear win for the Brewers. No Santana for four years, but they should get 3 years of solid second base play that fits at the top of a lineup, 4 years of a quality bullpen piece, possibly 6 years of a mid-rotation starter and a first round high upside outfielder.

[nate82]

Explain. Losing Domingo who's replaceable on the roster, but gaining a fairly young, controllable, affordable, frontline pitcher who walks under 3 per 9, k's over 10 per 9 and FIPs 3.50 makes them a 90 loss team? Not sure the trade works for everyone, but seems pretty solid for the Brewers at least.

 

Domingo is not really all that replaceable right now on the roster. Beyond Shaw Santana is the only player on the Brewers that you can expect to have an all star like season next year. Removing Santana and replacing him with Phillips or Brinson leaves a void in the offense. The replacement for Santana is far less than who Archer is replacing. Basically replacing Santana with Archer gets you an above average rotation but your offense now goes down to below average. I don't see the Brewers winning many games without Santana in the lineup. The Brewers offense without Santana is not all that great but without him it is just horrible.

[SRB]

Panik? What the hell is with everybody thinking we need every crap slap hitting 2nd baseman in the world on this team?

 

You do realize that Panik is considered one of the best all around 2B in baseball? Not only has he been an All Star (2015), but he's won a Gold Glove, owns a career .282 BA, a career .345 OBP, and a .439 career slugging percentage away from spacious A T & T Park, but he's one of the toughest to strike out in all of baseball. He's also controllable through 2020.

 

Heck a straight up deal Santana for Panik is not a horrible deal at all. If they include Samardzija, I'd say it's a win for the Brewers. Brewers can find a veteran corner OF bat in FA to fall back on if Brinson's not quite ready, but Brinson is the centerpiece of the rebuild and is being counted on to deliver sooner rather than later, and Phillips showed down the stretch he may well be ready now for everyday duty.

 

Panik is mediocre and significantly worse than Dee Gordon, who we could have just gotten in a salary dump. He'd better not be a main piece in any non-Broxton trade. Santana for Panik is AWFUL.

[RockCoCougars]

Giants have nothing I want.

[brewerfan82]

Explain. Losing Domingo who's replaceable on the roster, but gaining a fairly young, controllable, affordable, frontline pitcher who walks under 3 per 9, k's over 10 per 9 and FIPs 3.50 makes them a 90 loss team? Not sure the trade works for everyone, but seems pretty solid for the Brewers at least.

 

Domingo is not really all that replaceable right now on the roster. Beyond Shaw Santana is the only player on the Brewers that you can expect to have an all star like season next year. Removing Santana and replacing him with Phillips or Brinson leaves a void in the offense. The replacement for Santana is far less than who Archer is replacing. Basically replacing Santana with Archer gets you an above average rotation but your offense now goes down to below average. I don't see the Brewers winning many games without Santana in the lineup. The Brewers offense without Santana is not all that great but without him it is just horrible.

I like Domingo a lot and definitely don't think he should be given away (which I don't consider getting a very good, controllable starter like Archer giving him away in this scenario), but I think people are a little over confident in him repeating last year's production. Last offseason it was Villar and Guerra that we'd need a king's ransom to trade...

 

Villar was coming off his 4th major league season:

 

2013 - 0.0 WAR in 241 PAs (age 22)

2014 - 0.5 WAR in 289 PAs (age 23)

2015 - 0.9 WAR in 128 PAs (age 24)

2016 - 3.9 WAR in 679 PAs (age 25)

 

Santana's coming off his 4th major league season:

 

2014 - -0.4 WAR in 18 PAs (age 21)

2015 - 0.4 WAR in 187 PAs (age 22)

2016 - -0.2 WAR in 281 PAs (age 23)

2017 - 3.0 WAR in 607 PAs (age 24)

 

Again, I really like Santana and am *fairly* confident in him producing at a quality rate, but MLB history is full of guys that show a flash one year and struggle to be consistent the rest of their career. And while replacing him in the outfield with some combination of Brinson/Phillips/Broxton is no guarantee to replicate his stats from last year, they're all talented players capable of putting up a year like that and becoming just as *proven* as Santana is at this point.

 

Meanwhile, and this seems to be ignored for some reason, the poster was suggesting replacing him with Archer who would likely be our most reliable starter for the next four years that he's under contract for. He's basically been Nelson and Anderson from last year (those guys' best seasons to date) every year for 5 seasons now. That would be a huge return that can't be ignored.

 

I just don't see how that swap adds 14 losses to this team.

[Humans Need Water]

If the Brewers are "getting hits" and (reporting this news), it tells me the Brewers are letting everyone know that our OF's are for sale. This would also seem like the "Brewers" are trying to undo the logjam at OF and are the one's being proactive.

 

No doubt. You can tell me all about how injuries will happen and not all prospects turn out, but you can't just sit on Braun/Santana/Brinson/Phillips/Broxton/(and maybe Thames partially).

 

You gotta get rid of someone and not waste away value.

Yes and Yes. There is no way one OF isn't moved prior to this season because you can't have Brinson or Phillips starting in AAA. I'm sure they're technically all on the table and if someone brings in a crazy offer that you can't say no to then Stearns could pull the trigger. Broxton is still the ideal trade target because even if Phillips is a quality 4th OF for his career (I think he's a quality regular) he's a lefty bat with pop, good defense and a cannon playing all 3 spots.

 

I want nothing from SF. Panik is a steady, solid 2b but doesn't move the needle. Villar bouncing back is better than having Panik. That said, if we're trading Broxton I'm fine with other parts of SF, just not what's coming back if Santana went there

[SRB]

Explain. Losing Domingo who's replaceable on the roster, but gaining a fairly young, controllable, affordable, frontline pitcher who walks under 3 per 9, k's over 10 per 9 and FIPs 3.50 makes them a 90 loss team? Not sure the trade works for everyone, but seems pretty solid for the Brewers at least.

 

Domingo is not really all that replaceable right now on the roster. Beyond Shaw Santana is the only player on the Brewers that you can expect to have an all star like season next year. Removing Santana and replacing him with Phillips or Brinson leaves a void in the offense. The replacement for Santana is far less than who Archer is replacing. Basically replacing Santana with Archer gets you an above average rotation but your offense now goes down to below average. I don't see the Brewers winning many games without Santana in the lineup. The Brewers offense without Santana is not all that great but without him it is just horrible.

I like Domingo a lot and definitely don't think he should be given away (which I don't consider getting a very good, controllable starter like Archer giving him away in this scenario), but I think people are a little over confident in him repeating last year's production. Last offseason it was Villar and Guerra that we'd need a king's ransom to trade...

 

Villar was coming off his 4th major league season:

 

2013 - 0.0 WAR in 241 PAs (age 22)

2014 - 0.5 WAR in 289 PAs (age 23)

2015 - 0.9 WAR in 128 PAs (age 24)

2016 - 3.9 WAR in 679 PAs (age 25)

 

Santana's coming off his 4th major league season:

 

2014 - -0.4 WAR in 18 PAs (age 21)

2015 - 0.4 WAR in 187 PAs (age 22)

2016 - -0.2 WAR in 281 PAs (age 23)

2017 - 3.0 WAR in 607 PAs (age 24)

 

Again, I really like Santana and am *fairly* confident in him producing at a quality rate, but MLB history is full of guys that show a flash one year and struggle to be consistent the rest of their career. And while replacing him in the outfield with some combination of Brinson/Phillips/Broxton is no guarantee to replicate his stats from last year, they're all talented players capable of putting up a year like that and becoming just as *proven* as Santana is at this point.

 

Meanwhile, and this seems to be ignored for some reason, the poster was suggesting replacing him with Archer who would likely be our most reliable starter for the next four years that he's under contract for. He's basically been Nelson and Anderson from last year (those guys' best seasons to date) every year for 5 seasons now. That would be a huge return that can't be ignored.

 

I just don't see how that swap adds 14 losses to this team.

 

Of course there's a good chance Santana regresses a bit just like with any player, but I don't think that comparison is very fair. Santana has consistently hit at every stage of his career. Not only hit but shown marked improvement as he adjusts to the league. His WAR values have been dragged down because the stats hate his defense, but to the eye test he has never really looked that awful to me.

[NievesNoNO]

The path of least resistance is a Broxton trade. The Giants don't have enough to get Santana and Braun is not realistic anymore.

 

I think the Indians could make some sense for a potential Domingo Santana deal, especially if they don't bring Carlos back. They have some pretty decent pitching depth at the MLB level. Maybe a straight up Bauer, Clevenger, or Salazar or they have some real nice minor league pieces yet if that's the route they'd want to go.

[TJseven7]

I like Santana and see him continuing what he did in 2017. But he's always had a pretty high strikeout rate and the questionable defense will drag down the overall value he brings to a club. It's possible he hit his peak value last year. Projection sites listed at Fangraphs are only forecasting Santana to be a 1.7 WAR player in 2018 with a .257/.352/.470/.822 (28 HR) slash line. Normally I think a slash line like that would represent higher value, but again the bad defense will likely drag down his overall value. Last year he was a 3.4 WAR player, and if the Brewers can get that type of return for him I would definitely consider trading him.

 

I'm not going to type out all the math but if Santana is a 3.4 WAR player over each of the next four seasons his overall value would be 140.96 million dollars and I would estimate he'll earn 31.4 million dollars, so he would have a surplus value of approximately 109.56 million assuming he keeps performing at his 2017 level.

 

When the Stanton to the Giants rumors were flying I went back through the last few Baseball America Prospect Handbooks and read about some of the involved prospects again. Tyler Beede is a pitcher that has posted some mediocre numbers but is a player that should not be ignored. The Giants have constantly been re-working his delivery and repertoire, and he finally may be to the point where he will put it all together.

 

Joe Panik has been an average 2.3 WAR player over the last three seasons and if he maintains that over the next three seasons his overall value is 67.74 million. I'd estimate his earnings to be 16.9 million over that timeframe so I have him as having 50.84 million in surplus value.

 

Hunter Strickland has been an average 1.1 WAR player over the last three seasons and if he maintains that over the next four seasons his overall value would be 44.94 million. I'd estimate his earnings to be 17.1 million over that timeframe (he's a super two) so I have him as having 27.84 million in surplus value.

 

I've already talked about Tyler Beede. He's a former top 100 that I would slot between top 100 and "top 10 organizational prospect" value which would put his surplus value at 13.74 million.

 

Heliot Ramos is solid "top 10 organizational prospect" material which would put his surplus value at 11.45 million.

 

Santana (valued at 3.4 WAR over the next four seasons) = 109.56 million

Panik (50.84 million) + Strickland (27.84 million) + Beede (13.74 million) + Ramos (11.45 million) = 103.87 million

 

I'd do that deal and it's a fair deal if the Giants believe Santana will keep on doing what he has been doing. Note that even if Santana is devalued because the Giant's don't necessarily believe the 3.4 WAR is sustainable, much of Joe Panik's 3 year value came from his 2015 season where he was a 3.7 WAR value. In 2016-2017 the average WAR was only 1.6 and the lower number could very well be a better projection for Panik moving forward. So when doing the math above, I used the high estimates for both sides.

 

I would have a hard time turning down a package like this if the Giants were to agree to it. Losing four years of Santana would definitely hurt and be a setback. But if Beede turns into just a number 3 starter then this deal could be a clear win for the Brewers. No Santana for four years, but they should get 3 years of solid second base play that fits at the top of a lineup, 4 years of a quality bullpen piece, possibly 6 years of a mid-rotation starter and a first round high upside outfielder.

 

While you can argue this all true and equal we have no motivation to deal him unless they beat this offer. You dont trade a beast for equal pieces. He's the best part of the trade so thats still not enough.

[TURBO]

If we were to get multiple pieces in a trade for Santana, doesn't that just create a HUGE log jam on the 40 man roster in the very near future? We already are going to have issues keeping our players and protecting them, add 4 or 5 others, and we are bound to lose some of our coveted prospects due to not being able to protect them...

[Austin Tatious]

I could see the Braves making a strong inquiry too. General manager Alex Anthopoulos is very aggressive and he had some pop in Toronto.

[mlloyd10]

I could see the Braves making a strong inquiry too. General manager Alex Anthopoulos is very aggressive and he had some pop in Toronto.

 

Allard and Gohara

[NOMAAM]

Panik, Strickland,Shark,+ Cash for Santana & Villar